A data review to supplement the UK Met Office 'Disappointing Weather Meeting'

A graphical review of 14.5 years disappointing UK weather

Guest essay by Neil Catto

A meeting today (18th March 2013) took place at the UK Met Office HQ in Exeter. See the report here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/meeting-unusual-seasons

It was arranged to include the best climatologists and meteorologists to gain better understanding of the ‘disappointing UK weather over recent years’.

Now, that the AGW debate with regard to the relationship between CO2 and temperature has been shown to be insignificant, I can only imagine the next course of action. Listening to Roger harbinger of doom on BBC Radio 4 this morning; weird weather, extremes this and that…blah blah!

I thought I would have a look and see how unusual (oops! disappointing) it has been for the last 14.5 years at a southern UK location.

Fig 1 Average daily (24hrs) pressure Well that’s not very worrying, almost a straight linear trend. UK Pa

Fig 2 Daily rainfall duration (any hour of 24 reporting precipitation) Well that’s not very worrying either, a very small decline in rainfall duration. It appears wet every day, it isn’t of course, it’s only the large amount of information (5353 days) makes it look that way on these compacted graphs.

UK RD

Fig 3 Daily (24hrs) Rainfall volume As with rainfall duration, there is a very small linear decline. There are certainly LESS number of high daily amounts in the last 8 years (2004-2013) than the previous 6 years.

UK RV

Fig 4 Average daily (24hrs) relative humidity Getting bored with the flat line trends yet? How boringly normal the weather is!

UK RH

Fig 5 Daily (24 hrs) maximum hourly wind speeds It is getting a little windier about 2.5mph/day, but hardly anything to worry about.

UK WSx

Fig 6 Daily (24 hrs) maximum temperatures Slightly COOLER, oh dear there goes the CO2 driving temperature rise theory!

UK Tx

Fig 7 Daily (24 Hrs) minimum temperatures Yet another boring straight line trend, shaking in your boots yet?

UK Tn

Fig 8 Daily (24hrs) average temperatures Slightly COOLER, so it’s lower maximum temperatures driving the average down! And still CO2 levels continue to rise.

UK Ta

Fig 9 this is my weather ‘feel’ index This index is how the weather makes us feel. On a scale of 0-60; 0-6.9 (feel bad), tired, lethargic, miserable and despondent: >7.0 (feel good) full of energy, bright, lively and dynamic. As ‘disappointing’ is an emotion and this index is a measure of emotion, it shows the weather has been making us feel a little worse.

UK X0

There has been less hours of sunlight.

UK S

I know the comments have been a bit cynical and light hearted but honestly where is the gloom, the doom, the despondency and catastrophe in 14.5 years of perfectly normal very stable weather.

On a last note, I think we can all agree the Earth has been, at stages in its past history, covered or mostly covered in glacial ice. Most people will agree that global temperatures have been much higher than today, based on paleo-geology and archaeology. Well I suggest, in very simplistic terms, the difference between the two extremes of cold and hotter, is natural variation. Is climate change real? – isn’t the change between the wide divergence of natural variation, stating the obvious.

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Alan the Brit

I am so scared & terrified of the impending…………………………………..average weather to come!!!!!!! Then again there are those wretched extremes of weather that are just so…………………….normal!!!

Ken Hall

I was shocked, yet greatly heartened to see a BBC news report last night about this meeting and they reported that the Met Office “did not know” why the weather had been unusual. And the last 18 months have been unusual. I cannot remember a summer through to winter as wet as last years. There were definitely a lot more floods where I live in Cumbria, than there had been for years and the farmers I speak to up here have never known weather as bad for a very very long time. Likewise the unusual cold winter and spring.
No, this weather is not unprecedented, as some have tried to claim, but it is unusual.
What I was heartened by was the BBC reporting the Met Office press conference saying that this unusual weather could be caused by the sun, or any number of other things not exclusively, but possibly including, human CO2. And most likely it is a combination of these things. They said it was a result of the jet stream, but that they do not know what is driving it to change position to high or low, over or under the UK.
I know that there are still paid believers in ‘human CO2 being the driver of everything bad’, at the Met Office, but I am glad that there are still some scientists left there who are willing to look at conflicting data and admit that they do not know.

Copy Editor

Small grammar niggle. When something is countable, e.g. hours, it should be ‘fewer’ not ‘less’. So you can can have e.g. ‘less sunlight’ and ‘less wind’ but ‘fewer hours’ and ‘fewer storms’, Best not to give them grammar mistakes to pick in, because when they see the have no factual criticisms, you can be sure that’s the way they’ll try to rubbish this.

Shytot

Did you mean 18th June – because they had a meeting yesterday ?
the general “consensus” starting with harbinger in the early morning (pre meeting) and finishing with Dr Richard Betts in the afternoon (post meeting) was that the Arctic caps melting were a possible cause and various other natural phenomena could, maybe and perhaps could cause this “unusual” weather. no one challenged them on their models and lack of forecasting ability nor did anyone ask about CO2.
I’m sure given time they will come up with some appropriate spin on this and how they wil lneed more funding and a bigger computer 😉

Chris M

I believed that one of the drivers for this “get-together” was to discuss the reasons why the MO models had, for the past 13/14 years, consistently, and without fail, predicted temperatures on the warm side of average. As of yet I have seen no reference to this in any official release or MSN output. Have I missed something here?

Ian Robinson

The UK press each have their own interpretations of the meeting.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10128658/Run-of-wet-summers-could-last-another-10-years.html?placement=mid3#disqus_thread
“The high level meeting concluded that climate change is a major factor in colder winters.
A new pattern identified by the University of Reading was blamed for making wet summers more likely.
The meteorolgists noticed a warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in recent years.
This “North Atlantic Oscillation” pushes the jet stream south. Usually the channel of winds, that move from west to east, is much further north of the UK. When it shifts south, like it did last summer and is currently doing, it means wet weather from the Atlantic is blown in over the country.
It caused a run of wet summers in the late 1950s and early 1960s and in the 1880s.
The Met Office do not know exactly what causes the pattern to repeat but predict it will last for another ten years. The current run of wet summers began in 2007 and usually the pattern lasts for ten to 20 years.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/18/climate-uk-weather-summer-rain
“The scientists must now address what “dynamical drivers” are causing this cycle, Belcher said. The meeting debated a range of possible interconnected reasons for the unusual weather of recent years, including this year’s cold spring and the freezing winter of 2010/11. The most likely cause for the wet summers, he said, was the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, or AMO, a natural pattern of long-term changes to ocean currents.
Other candidate causes that could be “loading the dice”, as Belcher described it, include a shift in the jet stream, solar variability and fast-retreating Arctic sea ice. Aggravating all of these factors could be the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22959578
“The UK’s recent run of damp summers could be down to a cyclical warming of the Atlantic Ocean.
That was the view of scientists and meteorologists who gathered at the Met Office to discuss the unusual weather patterns of recent years.
They said that this 10 to 20 year pattern of Atlantic warming was shifting the jet stream, leading to washouts in six of the last seven summers.
But they suggested that the pattern would change at some point in the next decade.
The researchers said the location of the fast moving winds of the jet stream was critical to the UK’s weather.”

Keitho

Thanks Neil, most enlightening. I shall use your graphs to lead the unknowing into the light, and hopefully they will have a happier existence as a consequence.

Réaumur

People often say that today’s weather is “worse than anything they remember”.
Leaving aside memory bias which often makes past summers seem warmer, how long is human recall? 40 years on average? Vanishingly short in the life of a planet.
Forget anecdotes and examine the instrumental records. Even with errors and ‘adjustments’ they have to be more reliable than memory, and they go back a lot further.
We have no right to expect the weather always to be comfortable – we happen to have lived during a relatively stable, relatively temperate period, but that wasn’t specially arranged for our benefit!
The planet and the universe don’t care a quark whether we are happy or not.

John Law

How can they have a sensible discussion of climate, without Greenpeace, WWF and a few Indian railway engineers present.

John Law

In North Wales it’s business as usual. warm rain/ cold rain.

Bryan

Disappointing = Does not follow what the Climate Models predict.
Conclusion
The weather must improve itself or the CRU will not take it seriously.
……or is it the other way round?

TinyCO2

Internationally the British are regarded as being obsessed by the weather and the reason is ‘normal’ in our weather is always abnormal.

I’ve been ‘going on’ about the north Atlantic and England’s climate for about nearly 3 years ( see here ).
Since then more research and data is incorporated to provide more complete picture, some of it shown here
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NV.htm
From the above ‘armchair research’ it could be concluded that only a major geological activity to the north of Iceland may change current UK weather patterns, but even then there is inbuilt delay of up to a dozen or so years, not to mention the ‘heretical idea’ that the above is linked to the solar activity (as shown in the above link).
It would be extraordinary if anyone at the Met Office would even consider such unorthodoxy.

Fig 5 Daily (24 hrs) maximum hourly wind speeds It is getting a little windier about 2.5mph/day, but hardly anything to worry about.
I find it interesting that even with this numerically small, but seemingly significant percentage wise gain (looks to be about 35-40% to my admittedly rough eyeball) the highly promoted British wind energy industry has managed to turn in such thoroughly unimpressive output numbers over this time frame. Imagine how pathetic it would look if the winds had stayed as flat as all the other data shown.

Stephen Richards

Chris M says:
June 19, 2013 at 12:25 am
I believed that one of the drivers for this “get-together” was to discuss the reasons why the MO models had, for the past 13/14 years, consistently, and without fail, predicted temperatures on the warm side of average
I’ve read this 13 of 14 yrs before. I think it’s actually much worse than that. You see, the one year they got it right it was still high they were just dead lucky that a significant El Niño (unpredicted) came along without that piece of luck it would be 14 of 14 or maybe 20 of 20.

Stephen Richards

John Law says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:05 am
In North Wales it’s business as usual. warm rain/ cold rain.
I believe the saying in Wales is as follows: I you can see the hills it’s going to rain, if you can’t see them it’s raining. 🙂

Stephen Wilde

Alarmists point out the higher pressure recently over Greenland and the Northern Arctic in general but fail to note that the switch to such a negative AO is pretty much coincidental with low solar activity.
In contrast, the high solar activity of the late 20th century was coincidental with a generally positive AO.
The same relationship was observed in the cooler middle part of the 20th century, the warmer early 20th century, the LIA and the MWP.
The evidence is clear in my view.
In ice ages the AO would have been even more extremely positive with climate zones and jets pushed way down towards the equator. In those cases orbital changes altered the solar effects whereas on shorter time scales (1000 years or so) the changes appear to arise from cyclical shifts in the mix of particles and wavelengths from the sun as activity waxes and wanes.
Such changes in mix appear to alter stratospheric temperature differentially between equator and poles thus affecting the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles thus allowing the jets and climate zones to slide to and fro latitudinally.
The mechanism is via changes in the balance of destruction and creation of ozone at different heights.
Overall, an active sun cools the stratosphere whilst an inactive sun warms the stratosphere which is the opposite of established climatology but matches observations if one takes the assumed effects of CO2 and CFCs out of the mix.
I think it will turn out that the cooling stratosphere of the late 20th century was nothing to do with us after all or if we had any effect it was dwarfed by natural variability

Very nicely done. Yep, it must be getting harder for those scare-mongers to talk about doom and gloom all the time. I suppose that would make them depressed, and, well… more doomy and gloomy.

johnmarshall

If these scientists looked at history, scattered with ”extreme” events, they would not look so daft. They also need to get rid of that fascination/fixation with CO2 and look at the real world which does not act like the models.

Bloke down the pub

In the Met Office’s ramblings about yesterday’s meeting in Exeter they admit they still can’t tell what is climate change and what is natural cycles. It’s strange that when the global temperature was going up they were convinced that it had to be man made and couldn’t possibly be Gaia on her cycle.
I’m sure that half the problem with perception of ‘abnormal’ weather is Joe Public’s confusion over averages. Frequently on news items about weather you will hear things like ‘a month’s worth of rain fell in two hours’. This totally misses the point that during certain months of the year, rainfall will often fall in one heavy storm, rather than as a light drizzel spread over the whole month.

mycroft

Basically they haven’t a clue and they are still hoping that CO2 is the driver,in the mean time
keep people like Harribin pumping out the climate change meme and hope for a hot el nino year to come along …..sad and they call themselves scientists

jonny old boy

i have discovered there is a simple correlation between garbage summers in southern england ( summers are always garbage north of Birmingham ) and warmer arctic / sea ice melt rates. If you look back since the start of reliable records this is apparent. Why is this ? Well it is not intuative to assume this is caused by a warming atlantic because although recent discoveries point at warmer water being the cause of sea-ice and ice sheet terminus melt, from that one would assume that ( as basic science dictates ) the warmth of the atlantic would try to equalise towards northern climes to maintain “balance”….. BUT this would surely lead to far less dramatic difference in temperatures across the ocean latitudes and one would assume the atmospheric temperatures would be dominating Jet Stream pathways and these show much less cyclical variability ( relative to the norm ) than the ocean…. So…My hunch is that its the Jet Stream that may be driving the ground effects, and not the other way round. Furthermore , scientists at the MET office (word ‘scientists’ used loosely of course) seem also to ignore that the JetStream may appear to “guide” our low pressures towards us but really basic science tells me that its just as likely that the jet stream is a necessary partner of low pressure trying to be equalised by high pressure and the spin of the earth. Every time I visit this topic I am left with more questions than I had to start with. But then again unlike MET office “scientists” I do not pretend to know what drives our weather patterns…

William Astley

Come on man(C’mon Man). It’s the sun.
The sun is entering a Maunder like minimum. The paleo record shows there have been 9 warming periods in the North Atlantic followed by 9 cooling periods all of which correlate with solar magnetic cycle changes. Regardless of what Lief believes the sun was at its highest activity level in 11,000 years during the last 70 years.
The warmists scientists have ignored a long list of observations and analyses that indicate the majority of the warming in the last 70 years was caused by solar magnetic cycle changes.
http://cio.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/FILES/root/1999/QuatSciRevvGeel/1999QuatSciRevvGeel.pdf
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/74103.pdf
http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/seminars/spring2006/Mar1/Bond%20et%20al%202001.pdf
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
The current once in 8000 year period of high solar magnetic activity is over, complete, concluded, fini, finished, and so on.
Reality is reality. The warmists can not hide another Little Ice age, significant cooling.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf
It is a no brainer prediction. The planet will cool. How will the warmists spin the following :
“The last 70 years of warming was due to increased solar magnetic cycle activity. The recently observed abrupt cooling, will last for 50 to 150 years. The incorrect statements made concerning AWG were hype, made up to push idiotic green scams that have wasted hundreds of billions of dollars and resulted in massive job losses in Western Countries. Increased CO2 causes benign, beneficial insignificant warming and a very significant increased in plant growth and crop yield. There is no need to reduce CO2 emissions. We are very sorry for the mistake.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22949012
“No surprise, the Met Office meeting did not produce any startling conclusions. Instead it pointed to areas where more research is needed (though scientists always say that more research is needed.)
For reasons that are not fully clear, the Met Office itself seemed curiously coy about this gathering.
None of us could sit in to follow the debate. We weren’t even allowed to film the opening minutes of the session, which is common practice at all kinds of events.
Was the shyness because of memories of the mishandled and notorious ‘barbecue summer’ forecast?
Or nervousness at climate sceptics finding fault with every detail?
Or fear of the media misunderstanding the delicacies and uncertainties of a complicated craft and distorting some point with hype and headlines?
Or was there concern that we might peer into the thickets of science with its myriad challenges and conclude that the answer to the question: “What’s going on with the weather?” is a rather disappointing and potentially embarrassing damp squib: “We don’t really know”.”
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/74103.pdf
The Sun-Climate Connection by John A. Eddy, National Solar Observatory
Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate during the Holocene
A more recent oceanographic study, based on reconstructions of the North Atlantic climate during the Holocene epoch, has found what may be the most compelling link between climate and the changing Sun: in this case an apparent regional climatic response to a series of prolonged episodes of suppressed solar activity, like the Maunder Minimum, each lasting from 50 to 150 years8. … ….The paleoclimatic data, covering the full span of the present interglacial epoch, are a record of the concentration of identifiable mineral tracers in layered sediments on the sea floor of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. The tracers originate on the land and are carried out to sea in drift ice. Their presence in seafloor samples at different locations in the surrounding ocean reflects the southward expansion of cooler, ice-bearing water: thus serving as indicators of changing climatic conditions at high Northern latitudes. The study demonstrates that the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean has experienced nine distinctive expansions of cooler water in the past 11,000 years, occurring roughly every 1000 to 2000 years, with a mean spacing of about 1350 years

vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:21 am
It would be extraordinary if anyone at the Met Office would even consider such unorthodoxy.
It would be extraordinary if anyone at all would consider such nonsense.

Rick Bradford

* they reported that the Met Office “did not know” why the weather had been unusual. *
The Met Office doesn’t know how many beans make five…..

Stephen Wilde says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:52 am
Overall, an active sun cools the stratosphere whilst an inactive sun warms the stratosphere
Which is opposite to what is actually observed.

William Astley says:
June 19, 2013 at 3:19 am
The current once in 8000 year period of high solar magnetic activity is over, complete, concluded, fini, finished, and so on.
It never was to begin with.

Phil

This is getting way beyond a joke now! As a UK weather forecaster for the coming few days, the Met Office is OK. Beyond that, evidentially, demonstrably, they guess – and invariably guess wrong!
The reports coming out of the meeting yesterday are stunning – but can be summarised as “it could be this or could be that” – but ultimately that haven’t got a clue!
We have had the Met Office warning us for years that global warming will bring the UK droughts and BBQ summers and winters where children will no longer know what snow is – now they have the gall, the turn all that on its head! The sheer bloody cheek of it!
The only thing “disappointing” about the UK weather is that it is behaving normally – i.e. unpredictably, and not adhering to their scaremonger predictions for the implications of MMGW.
How these so-called experts have the chutzpah to make yesterday’s pronouncements without a shred of apparent embarrassment or regret.
Useless, Useless, Useless!!

Phil

This is getting way beyond a joke now! As a UK weather forecaster for the coming few days, the Met Office is OK. Beyond that, evidentially, demonstrably, they guess – and invariably guess wrong!
The reports coming out of the meeting yesterday are stunning – but can be summarised as “it could be this or could be that” – but ultimately that haven’t got a clue!
We have had the Met Office warning us for years that global warming will bring the UK droughts and BBQ summers and winters where children will no longer know what snow is – now they have the gall, the turn all that on its head! The sheer bloody cheek of it!
The only thing “disappointing” about the UK weather is that it is behaving normally – i.e. unpredictably, and not adhering to their scaremonger predictions for the implications of MMGW.
How these so-called experts have the chutzpah to make yesterday’s pronouncements without a shred of apparent embarrassment or regret.
Useless, Useless, Useless!!

rtj1211

The one conclusion that can be drawn is that is you model computers you know about climate but if you go out in the weather for years in challenging situations you learn nothing about it.
Farmers know about weather and climate because they see the effects of it on their crops, in their livestock and in their bank accounts.
Mountaineers know about it because to interpret it incorrectly increases your risk of dying.
Insurance companies would do well to learn about it because if they get their premiums:payout ratios wrong, they’ll go belly up pretty darn quick.
I’m failing to understand why sitting in a building modelling computers brings insight per se…..

Leif Svalgaard says:
June 19, 2013 at 3:20 am
It would be extraordinary if anyone at all would consider such nonsense.
Yes sir, you stick with the ‘flat sun’ , CO2 and geniuses from the Met office, who got every single forecast longer than 5 days wrong, from barbecue summer to our children will not know what snow looks like.
Yes sir, you follow them, could even write them letter of support, they will need some.
I will follow what is happening in the Arctic ocean, its currents and the indicators of their change, you may not think that natural events control climate, but they do not happen without reason, but again that is your choice.
For nearly 3 years I advocated cooling in the N.W. Europe, the Met Office advocated rapid warming.
Vuk 1: 0 MetOffice
See you.

vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:09 am
For nearly 3 years I advocated cooling in the N.W. Europe, the Met Office advocated rapid warming.
Consider being right for the wrong reason.
Vuk 0:1 Reason

son of mulder

And the man from the met office interviewed in the Times today
==========================================================
“”” Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office’s Hadley research centre, warned sun lovers that the “dice are loaded” for the current run of bad weather to last for another five to ten years. He said that the cycle had only just been identified and it was too early to say what impact, if any, climate change is having or exactly how long it will last.
“I am excited about this research because it is a new thing. It is not necessarily the warming of the ocean, it is the pattern of warm and cold water so it is the contrast that is important, and when that sits in the right place below the jet stream it can steer the jetstream and influence where it goes,” Professor Belcher added. “”
=============================================================
Yes he said “”cycle had only just been identified”” and “”I am excited about this research because it is a new thing.””
He’s talking about the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation. Quick give him more research money. Many have known about this for years. My mind is boggled.

RichieP

“Stephen Richards says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:49 am
John Law says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:05 am
In North Wales it’s business as usual. warm rain/ cold rain.
I believe the saying in Wales is as follows: I you can see the hills it’s going to rain, if you can’t see them it’s raining. :)”
In South Wales, by the Bristol Channel, we have our own version:
“If you can see Devon, it’s going to rain. If you can’t see Devon, it is raining.”

Hi to University Of East Anglia
Thanks for taking a note of my graphs; you are welcome again at any time.

vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:09 am
Yes sir, you stick with the ‘flat sun’
Perhaps you are ‘forgetting’ that I predicted a much lower solar cycle and that we are about to enter a prolonged minimum. Not exactly a ‘flat’ sun, but what is sticking with the truth when it comes to hyping your own nonsense.

Leif Svalgaard says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:11 am
vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:09 am
For nearly 3 years I advocated cooling in the N.W. Europe, the Met Office advocated rapid warming. Vuk 1: 0 MetOffice
Consider being right for the wrong reason.
Vuk 0:1 Reason
…………………………….
Far preferable even being right for the wrong reason, than being WRONG for the WRONG reason, but obviously not to you.
.

Stephen Wilde

Leif seems to know as much about climate as the Met Office.
The stratosphere clearly cooled whilst the sun was active in the late 20th century and subsequently stopped cooling when the sun became less active.
It is not yet actually warming but there are reports of increasing ozone above 45km despite the quieter sun which is the opposite of expectations as conceded by Jo Haigh.
More ozone above 45km means warming above 45km and it can only be a matter of time before we see warming below 45km too.

vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:18 am
Far preferable even being right for the wrong reason, than being WRONG for the WRONG reason
Actually not, as being right for the wrong reason makes you more likely to ‘predict’ a future event that will be wrong.

Stephen Wilde says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:21 am
It is not yet actually warming
You have finally seen the light.

Dr.S.
Perhaps you are ‘forgetting’ that I predicted a much lower solar cycle and that we are about to enter a prolonged minimum.
Big dill, so did I 10 years ago extrapolated from natural events (unlike you and the Met Office I do not do predictions)
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
except that you only recently claimed NOT ‘prolonged minimum’ but very strong SC25, but then you change your mind.
My extrapolation from the astronomy data of possible prolong minimum goes back to 2003 !
How about that?

steveta_uk

Neil, why cannot I see the very dry period of around 2 years leading up to the Apr 2012 hosepipe bans, and why cannot I see the extremely wet 6 months that followed, on your graphs?

Truly terrifying stuff Neil. The one graph you left out would show the rising trend of Met Office funding over the last decade. I’d bet that’d be another hockey stick …
Pointman

Mike jarosz

Winston Churchill says,” Americans usually get it right after they tried everything else”. Concur. Probable cause, our significant English ancestry.

vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:31 am
except that you only recently claimed NOT ‘prolonged minimum’ but very strong SC25, but then you change your mind.
Not at all. More examples of your ‘forgetfulness’.
Extrapolations are not valid predictions.

RichieP

This excellent blog article in the Daily Telegraph sums up the current state of knowledge very concisely:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/
‘First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”’

mycroft

Why Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office’s Hadley research centre stated the AMO is “new” is beyond me!
We can only hope and pray that this will lead to more Media scrutiny and ultimately more questions being asked when the Meto gets forecasts wrong

David

STILL some of them are on about the ‘fast-melting Arctic sea ice…’
Do none of them take the trouble to look at the graphs on the Arctic Sea Ice page linked over there ¬ in the right-hand column..? Or is it a case of: ‘Yes, yes, I’m sure they’re very accurate but we like to make stuff up…’..?