A data review to supplement the UK Met Office 'Disappointing Weather Meeting'

This sort of extreme weather normality will be the end of all human life as we know it.
I think it is curious that the average wind speed is 6MPH and the UK Government still insists on building wind farms. So over the long term the output will always be low.
see – http://energybible.com/wind_energy/wind_speed.html
It obvious that with all that sunshine, 5 hours/day average and declining, solar power is the one to really waste money on.

As someone who has lived in the UK all my life I can happily report that the weather is just as unpredictable as it’s always been. I remember well the ‘drought’ of ’76 (for a boy, a gloriously long summer holiday, despite stand-pipes in the street), as well as countless hot and cold ‘extremes’ in the decades since. The Met Office only make themselves look more foolish than they already are by pretending to be able to analyze the ‘underlying causes’ of so-called ‘extreme’ weather in the UK over the past few years.
What a joke. As anyone living in these Isles knows (yes, even the grumbling farmers, who are always very willing to offer a ready opinion on the weather), this is what the weather is like here – this really isn’t rocket (or climate) science.
PS: right now, outside my window here in Bedfordshire, UK, the sun is out, the temperature is lovely and warm and the reservoirs are all full to brimming.

“The scientists must now address what “dynamical drivers” are causing this cycle, Belcher said. ”
Why? There’s damn all they can do about them!

I can save them a boat load of money and tell them why the weather has been disappointing. It’s rather obvious. It’s because its weather. It changes. It does weird things. That’s just what it does. Just because some people would like it to be constant and predictable, doesn’t mean that it should be that way.

Would it not be more appropriate for the Met to meet to discuss their increasingly disappointing forecasting?

@Ian Robinson – I have lodged a complaint with the PCC.

Geophysicists who seek oil and gas are also accustomed to failure of the models, and that’s in a relatively simple situation with limited degrees of freedom in their models. (basically sound moving through rock)

Ever notice in the real science fields, when you’re dead wrong and shown to be in front of millions you s.t.f.u. and fade to the rear and let someone whose stuff works, run the show –
but in climate, the mark you’ve been proven utterly wrong is going on an attack against others who are also in the field, in public, using snide sarcastic language acting like a jilted lover?
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Everyone who’s getting their faces ground into pavement having been proven an utter buffoon buying into that magic gais scam is now going around growling “it’s YOUR work that’s REALLY disgusting” –
you can literally determine whose work has the MOST truth in it by simply looking for the “jilted lover hit piece” where false dichotomy is shamelessly laid out for taste testing by the uninformed sector of the audience.
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The person who screams the other’s work infuriates him: is the one who’s been proven utterly and irrecoverably wrong; and EVERY one you see doing it’s a magic gasser.
The claim of being “infuriated/revulsed” (think jilted lover tone) by another’s work in climate
is ALL YOU NEED to SEE to know WHO’S been UTTERLY debunked as far as credibility.
It’s the one doing the jilted lover thing EVERY single TIME. Because they got their PLACE in climate, suppressing real science,
and the way you suppress real truth, is through feigned outrage at it.
If you’re new to the climate scam/ “green income stream” scam field where alarm about magic hot gas burning your hair and eye sockets out of your head at midnight due to magical Backerd’s radiation, get ready for your own variant of revulsion.
It’ll be the variant where “green income stream” scamming for no apparent reason, mindlessly attacks the work of perfectly honest men who happen to be right, while the “green income stream” clan try to keep doing the tribal boing-boing-over-magic-gas dance –
pretending everyone hasn’t stopped to watch them still bouncing up and down with their spears alternately ululating about the magic gas, and how not believing in it’s magic powers is ridiculous.
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There are so many people ahead of these scammers. There’s a Dr. Nicola Scafetta an Italian who posts here sometimes. People don’t even spit at him. Watch his film on how he and some other guys figured out the sun’s internal center of mass being towed closer or farther from the earth according to the weight of the gas giant planets.
All these magic gas yodeling modelers are utterly humiliated. Not one of them can tell you what the weather’s going to be a week from today.
They have destroyed men’s reputations shamelessly: and now that the truth continues to roil up and swallow the ones who pushed that magic gas like it was Gospel Truth,
they’re desperately humiliated being seen,
fighting the hook they themselves, swallowed
and were gleefully destroying other grown men’s reputations, for not swallowing, too.
Michael Mann with his law suits, the whole mob of profiteers off magic gas alarm,
urgently & deliberately, cutting non magic gassers, completely out of any discussions possible, believers snidely organizing and using blog mobs, to extend ridicule –
-since being right was obviously never going to happen within magic gas / bigfoot / area 51 science country, ridiculing truth,
while simultaneously ringing, and profiting from “green” industry’s alarm bells,
was and still is the mode of operation.
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If you think there’s a big mystery to how the climate works, you are either a magic gasser or you’ve been reading magic gas believers’ literature as answer to how it does.
Before you read one word there is something you must know: does the web site teach the GHGE is a real source of heat? If yes then every word they say will sound like it drizzled out of a man recovering from traumatic head wounds. Not one single word he tells you about any future event, will jibe with the instruments and with the other fields analyzing climate.
The ONLY people who EVER believed in it were and are making MONEY peddling it or profiting from the crowd the alarm brings. Because it simply never was nor will ever show any predictive power whatever.
How was a theory about a magic gas mirror absorbing 168 watts from a warm rock, then emitting 324 back down to the rock, and 324 up toward space, ever going to be real?
No matter HOW many lies it’s believer based science clowns tell: they’re nothing to science, but alarm scam profiteers:
for either money,
fame, or usually,
both.
If you’re new to this and you wonder why it all seems so complicated – it’s because the sole interest of a lot of grants scammers and other green income stream profiteers, for 20 years, has been to teach people about a magical gas mirror that has more power coming out of it, than went in.
Ask yourself if it looks all that impossible to tell what’s going on from this guy I already mentioned: I found this just going through his presentations one day after he personally posted here, some pdf of a paper he wrote.
He speaks native Italian and he’s hard to understand. “Oscillations: he says “isolations” and for “induced” he says, “in-dew-sed” and for “Heliosphere” he says “AY-lee-yos-feer”.
But I guarantee you that the next person who mentions magic gas being even credible as a suggestion will make you laugh, out loud, in spite of yourself. This guy’s no fool I kid you not.
You will not be asking for your 28 minutes back my friend. I promise you that. It’s like… “dAYUmn!”,
when at the 20:00 minute + mark, he says “you get THIS….black LINE.”
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In due diligence I must say – you need to take the lull of the first 15 or so minutes. He explains how, it’s as simple as, the weight of the gas giants in the solar system, especially, combined with the weight of even other planets, pulling the mass gravitational center of the sun to the side where the earth is.
He says according to the weights of the various planets in their orbits, there are VERY easily defined patterns that have: 9 (the moon’s weight included) 10-11/20-22, 30/60, 200, and 1,000 year cycles.
In this one he concentrates on showing you how easy it is to see them, and then somewhere between 18:00 and 20:18 he says….”we get THIS….black LINE.”
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You mark my words: I don’t know who you are, and I don’t care who you are. ONCE you hear a man named Nicola Scafetta say the words “THIS black LINE…”
YOU will be ANXIOUS for some clown to start barking magic gas in a space where you can hear it, because you will CALMLY walk over to that man, open your mouth, and say “Nicola Scafetta: THIS black LINE.”
You will walk off, and that argument will be O.V.E.R.
I GUARANTEE you that – or you can come back and tell me,
“Nah, I’m still a pretty big “magic gas”
man,
myself.”
We’ll see how many people come back saying they still have concerns magical backerdisms are going to burn their eyes out of their sockets
as they gaze up at the cloudless skies at midnight.
Nicola Scafetta: “this black line.”

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Write the Met Office, send them a link to this, and tell them,
“Here – “review” this.”
Tell your Met Office Magic Gas Scammer you expect all his projections to come out like that.
LoL.
You will roam the earth LOOKING for somebody who’ll stand up in public and tell you he believes in that crap.

tckev says (June 19, 2013 at 8:51 am): “Have the poster here noticed how many climate change critics are from an engineering background, computer/electronics seems to figure quite high as well. Maybe they are more used to the failure of computer modeling in the real world more than most.”
Maybe it’s just that programmers know a computer does exactly what you tell it to do. If you program warming into a GCM, for example, then–surprise!–you get warming out of it. GCMs tell us a lot more about the programmers than they tell us about the climate.

vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 6:12 am
I am inclined to think that SC25 might be a large cycle…
What you are neglecting is that a real prediction takes into account the evolution of the parameter(s) on which the prediction depends. This is a strength of a physics-based prediction. Back in 2011 the solar fields were decreasing rapidly. Had this held up we would have had an early SC24 maximum and lots of time for polar fields to build up again for SC25 [predicting a strong cycle]. As the Southern hemisphere stalled in 2012 it became clear that we would not have an early maximum and a weak SC25 became the only remaining option. Physics beats mindless extrapolation every time.