Guest essay by David Archibald
Wiggle-matching has been used by the best. Hubert Lamb, considered to be the most meticulous climatologist of all time, used wiggle-matching in this wind data graph he published in 1988:
He had plotted up 600 years of wind data at London, noted a 200 year periodicity and copied the line 200 years to the right to make a forecast.
One of the puzzles of the last 300 years of climate is the temperature drop of 1740. It came out of the blue after a number of warm years in the 1730s. There is nothing in the Be10 record or the volcanic record to suggest a cause.
It came a couple of years after the peak of a fairly strong solar cycle. The event of 1740 attracted the attention of Briffa and Jones in their 2006 paper “Unusual Climate in Northwest Europe During the Period 1730 to 1745 Based on Instrumental and Documentary Data”. From the abstract of that paper,” This study focuses on one of the most interesting times of the early instrumental period in northwest Europe (from 1730–1745) attempting to place the extremely cold year of 1740 and the unusual warmth of the 1730s decade in a longer context.” The only conclusion that they came to was climate might vary more than is commonly accepted.
So what does that period up to 1740 wiggle-match with? It matches with the warmth of the last 30 years:
The graph above shows the Central England Temperature (CET) record from 1703 to 1745 as the blue line. Plotted on it is the CET record from 1978 to 2012. Normally when you align 34 year lengths of temperature records you don’t get any correlation. The correlation on this particular matchup is 0.112. The statisticians amongst us can argue over whether or not anything can be read into that. If something can be read into it, we only have to wait two years to experience the consequences. The spike down is also prominent in the de Bilt record:
Caleb says: June 19, 2013 at 6:40 pm
….
Caleb, EM Smith (and Ian Wilson) had some interesting observations about the effects of the moon. we are all aware of the tides but that is not the only effect. (both link to peer-reviewed papers)
The take home is the moon’s orbit is not simple. It moves not only around the earth but up and down in relation to the earth’s equator. This could have an effect on the oceans and could be the cause of Bond and D/O events.
Another post from EM on lunar cycles
Ian Wilson has taken the idea even further.
jai mitchell says:
Jai, to be honest, I’m a bit confused as to what exactly you’re trying to say.
To me it seems David Archibald’s post is merely putting forward the hypothesis that the 1740/41 cold winter event in Europe (and U.S. too, according to herkimer!) was similar to the recent 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 winters. He was quite open about the fact that it was just speculation. But, it’s actually something I’ve been thinking myself for a couple of years now…
So, what exactly are you saying?
Are you saying that you believe the recent cold winters are due to high levels of Arctic sea ice melt causing changes in the jet-stream, and that you think this will pattern will become more common in the future?
If so, what is your explanation for the 1740/41 event?
Are you suggesting that the Arctic sea ice extent was similar in 1740/41 to now?
P.S. I see richard verney already asked you something similar at June 19, 2013 at 1:55 am
RE: Gail Combs.
Thanks for pointing those cycles out. I haven’t thought much about the moon’s tidal effect much, though I have come across it from time to time while skimming comments.
It is interesting to think of water slowly sloshing back and forth between the Atlantic and Pacific, over a period so long we wouldn’t notice it in a single lifetime, but might notice a side effect, such as a shift in the Gulf Stream or a cold winter.
Into my mind’s eye comes the memory of tidal pools a bit up a beach, away from the regular march of the surf. Although the waves thud at a regular interval, the tidal pool is not reached by every wave, and fills and drains with a period all its own. It seemed fairly chaotic to me, and I was glad it was not my job to predict when water would be entering the pool and when water would be exiting. (Instead my job was to relax, dabble, and work on my sunburn.) (Which sounds good to me right now.)
The video link that “jai mitchel” linked to had an odd explanation for the northward component of Hadley Cells. Rather than the simple idea that cooled air to the north sinks, creating low pressure aloft which sucks the air that has risen (due to heating) up from the south, the educator in the video suggested that, because the troposphere was higher to the south, gravity caused the air to flow “downhill” to the north.
Hmmmm.
An abrupt cooling event for one or two years due to changes in the jet stream might be a distraction. There is very strong data and analysis that shows the planet will cool due to the current solar magnetic cycle change. A strong argument can be made for cooling to Little Ice Age levels over roughly 3 to 5 years. Based on what has happened before the cooling will last 100 to 150 years. There is now the first observational evidence of cooling in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Why is there no discussion of imminent significant planetary cooling in the mainstream media?
The solar magnetic cycle is slowing down.Solar cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle in roughly 150 years. It appears solar magnetic cycle 25 will be either a Maunder like minimum or a Dalton minimum. Most likely is a Maunder like minimum based on observations.
Based on past solar observations the Maunder like minimum in solar magnetic cycle activity will last 30 to 100 years and will be followed by weak solar magnetic cycles. Based on what has happened before there will be significant cooling that will last for 100 to 150 years.
There are cycles of warming and cooling in the paleo record that correlate with solar magnetic cycle change. The planet cools when there is a Maunder or Dalton like solar magnetic cycle minimum. Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
Comparison solar cycle 22, 23, 24
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
Comparison solar cycle 24 to the weakest solar magnetic cycles in the last 150 years.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
There is now the start of cooling in the high Arctic.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
There is now record Antarctic sea ice for all months.
Antarctic Sea Ice, 2013 compared to 2012
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles.
The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10 to 12 years. …. …. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5 ±2C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009 to 2020) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6 C.
William: Latitude and longitude of Svalbard (Longyearbyen)
78.2167° N, 15.6333° E Svalbard Longyearbyen, Coordinates
A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates
http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/seminars/spring2006/Mar1/Bond%20et%20al%202001.pdf
http://cio.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/FILES/root/1999/QuatSciRevvGeel/1999QuatSciRevvGeel.pdf
“The role of solar forcing upon climate change”
However, if we observe sudden, major 14C increases like the ones starting at c. 850 cal. BC and at c. 1600 AD (about 20 per mil), it is hard to imagine any change in the global carbon cycle that can bring about such a drastic fast change, simply because there is no reservoir of carbon with higher 14C concentration available anywhere on Earth. … …We consider this scenario unlikely, and note here that events such as the 850 cal. BC peak are present in the dendrochronological curve with a periodicity of about 2400 years (Stuiver and Braziunas, 1989; see below). … …”A number of those Holocene climate cooling phases… most likely of a global nature (eg Magney, 1993; van Geel et al, 1996; Alley et al 1997; Stager & Mayewski, 1997) … the cooling phases seem to be part of a millennial-scale climatic cycle operating independent of the glacial-interglacial cycles (which are) forced (perhaps paced) by orbit variations.” … …”… we show here evidence that the variation in solar activity is a cause for the millennial scale climate change.”
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/74103.pdf
The Sun-Climate Connection by John A. Eddy, National Solar Observatory
A more obvious and climatically more significant feature of the long record is the recurrence of repeated Maunder Minimum-like depressions in the overall level of solar activity, each persisting for thirty to about 100 years.
Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate during the Holocene
A more recent oceanographic study, based on reconstructions of the North Atlantic climate during the Holocene epoch, has found what may be the most compelling link between climate and the changing Sun: in this case an apparent regional climatic response to a series of prolonged episodes of suppressed solar activity, like the Maunder Minimum, each lasting from 50 to 150 years8.
I think Dr. Archibald got the second graph wrong. I suggest a somewhat different comparison as shown here
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET1690-1960.htm
from which can be concluded that the ‘1740-type event’ if there is such a thing, is not 2 years in front but 2 years behind us.
= On the polar jet stream and stratospheric warming =
– Under normal conditions PJS is a regular Rossby wave, due to shear in rotating fluids, so that the Coriolis force changes along the sheared coordinate. In planetary atmospheres, wave is due to the variation in the Coriolis effect with latitude.
http://uvs-model.com/pictures/jet_stream.jpg
– The lobes of the PJS become more meridionaly pronounced by change in the events associated with strong ocean – atmospheric interaction, i.e. two semi-permanent low pressure systems:
a) Icelandic Low in the N. Atlantic caused by warm currents down-welling
b) Aleutian Low in the N. Pacific caused by cold currents up-welling.
both of the above have coincidental correlation with the pronounced tectonics in both areas.
– Sudden stratospheric warming, only happens in the winter months and its occurrence is strongly correlated this time to the frequent volcanic eruptions in Kamchatka peninsula; more details here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NH.htm
The warm air dome rising from eruptions ruptures tropopause (the boundary in the Earth’s atmosphere between the troposphere and the stratosphere) and so allowing large volumes of the troposphere’s air to rise into stratosphere, as clearly demonstrated by this NOAA animation:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSW2012-13.gif
It should be noted that no single event of winter stratospheric warming has been recorded in the Antarctica during satellite age, due to lack of activity of the area’s single atmospheric volcano, Mt. Erebus.
None of the above appear to be directly linked to the solar activity as expressed in the SSN data, but in the N. Atlantic the tectonic activity does have some correlation to the SSN, particularly strong since 1880, the latest period of the more accurate data availability:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-NAPa.htm
Please elaborate on this ‘jet stream’ everyone talks about, as I do not see any such ‘fixed feature’ detailed on the weather synopsis maps.
One may view *changing* upper level conditions (wind and pressure contours) over time for CONUS here for instance:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/
Or view the water vapor imagery depicting air mass movements as viewed from a postion over the North Pole:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animwjap.html
One may observe “ANIMATION of Jet Stream Analyses” here:
http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_model.html
I ask again, where is this fixed feature, the ‘jet stream’ appearing?
.
David
Have you tried wiggle matching of solar cycles ?
We are currently 11 years since the end of the last solar maximum period of sunspot cycle #23 with the year of 2003 which had 104 sunspots . This was part of a long solar cycle of #23 which lasted about 12.6 years. Global temperatures started to drop about 2004/2005 and the winters were quite cold in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2013. Looking back at similar historical solar cycle developments, we can compare 2013 with 1801 or 1873 when we also had 11 years without any major sunspot years and there were longer solar cycles involved, like solar cycle #4 which lasted 13.6 years and solar cycle # 14 which lasted 11.7 years. Global climate tends to drop at the end of long solar cycles and also during the early part of the decade following. One can see the global temperatures decline at the end and also after most long solar cycles like after cycles # 9,13,14,20. However if the next solar cycle or cycles continue to be low also as they did after # 4 and # 11 , then lower global temperatures may continue for decades there after . This may be the case for the next several decades if the current solar cycle #24 and the next, namely # 25, and 26 continue to be all low as some are predicting. . Global oceans STT have been now flat for 16 years and are now showing a decline since 2005. Global cooling seems to be indicated .
herkimer says:
June 20, 2013 at 5:37 am
Have you tried wiggle matching of solar cycles ?
Exploratory research, such as wiggle matching, can sometimes be useful for developing a hypothesis. But, the problem with doing so is that once you’ve formed your hypothesis, you can’t use any of the data you checked for testing your hypothesis.
For this reason, I’m wary of doing too much wiggle matching, etc, in a field such as climate science, because we have such a shortage of useful long term climate records. Have you read Carl Wunsch’s 1999 essay on the pitfalls of overinterpretation of climate records? http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papersonline/bamsrednoise.pdf
Re: kadaka (KD Knoebel) says June 19, 2013 at 5:23 pm
jai mitchell on June 19, 2013 at 3:51 pm
This seems to be a topic in the eco-press e.g. Environmental News Network (ENN) and others as of late:
(1) The Jet Stream and Greenland, Environmental News Network (ENN), Andy Soos
Published June 18, 2013 08:02 AM
http://www.enn.com/enn_original_news/article/46110
(2) Jet stream changes cause climatically exceptional Greenland Ice Sheet melt, Uni of Sheffield
“Research from the University of Sheffield has shown that unusual changes in atmospheric jet stream circulation caused the exceptional surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in summer 2012.”
Published 17 June 2013
http://www.shef.ac.uk/news/nr/jet-stream-greenland-ice-sheet-melt-1.280360
Is there data out there to suggest that the 1740 event was a global/widespread Northern Hemisphere event or is the usual ‘Europe was the centre of culture at this time’ approach to life mean that warmer weather in Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland etc wasn’t considered worthy of mention??
Not that a 1740-style event shouldn’t be taken extremely seriously, but one wonders whether there were analagous events in other places when the climate in Europe wasn’t grossly cold or was in fact particularly hot??
rtj1211 says:
June 20, 2013 at 6:18 am
Is there data out there to suggest that the 1740 event was a global/widespread Northern Hemisphere event or is the usual ‘Europe was the centre of culture at this time’ approach to life mean that warmer weather in Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland etc wasn’t considered worthy of mention??
Well, herkimer suggests that it might have been, because 1740/41 also seems to have been a very severe winter in northeast U.S., at least. See his comment on June 19, 2013 at 6:15 am, and David Archibald provides an interesting link to weather records for the area from then on June 19, 2013 at 6:31 am
Ronan
I have not read the essay that you mention. I agree that wiggle matching has its limitations . I recall a couple of years ago someone matching SOI and GLOBAL TEMPERATURE anomalies successfully using wiggle matching and a lag factor of about 6 months . In the strict sense of the words I did not really use wiggle matching but tried to illustrate that somewhat similar solar conditions existed in the past as we have to day and there may be a correaltion that may apply today. I realize that correlation is not causation. Also although the exact mechanism is not yet understood, low solar sunspot numbers seem to correlate with low global surface temperatures especially when ocean and solar cycles are both in sync during like during declining or rising phases. Solar sunspot activity is at the lowest level since 1900. During the decades of 1880, 1890 and 1900 the average sunspot numbers [NSO] were 45.2, 55.1 and 42.6. During 2000 decade they were 49.6. During the last 10 years the average sunspot number was 29.3. When the average solar level drops to about 40-50, cooler weather seems to set in. Low solar cycles typically come in threes, so it is possible that low sunspot number may exist for several decades into the future .Typically these longer solar minimums are characterized by a long solar cycle followed by three low level sunspot cycles resulting in some 45 years of lower sunspot activity, like 1872 – 1917 and again 1790-1836. There are 11, 22, 70-80, 200 year and even longer solar cycles
For the UK to have sustained below average temps (especially in the winter), strong north-easterlies are the norm. That is, a strong, semi-permanent area of high pressure sets up in Scandinavia. This is turn drives very cold north-easterlies into the UK. I wonder if there is any historic information for Denmark and Norway that could be correlated with the UK data?
In reply to:
_Jim says:
June 20, 2013 at 5:29 am
William Astley says June 20, 2013 at 3:17 am
An abrupt cooling event for one or two years due to changes in the jet stream …
William:
The UK weather is strongly affected by the position of a Rossby wave (jet stream) or by weather patterns that block the Rossby wave. As the jet stream moves from west to east the prevailing winds are from west to east. The prevail winds is the reason why the winter temperature on the east coast of North America is roughly 10C to 20C colder than the west coast for the same latitude. It is also the reason why London’s (51.5N) average winter temperature is 5C compared to St. John’s Newfoundland (Canada) 47.6N average winter temperature is -5C. Cooling for one to two years can be caused a temporary mechanism that changes the direction of the Rossby wave or that blocks winds carrying warm air from the Atlantic.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=rossby+waves&biw=1920&bih=901&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=ARPDUbenAaGcjAK47oHgDQ&sqi=2&ved=0CDkQsAQ
The Source of Europe’s Mild Climate
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/id.999,y.0,no.,content.true,page.1,css.print/issue.aspx
Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe’s mild winters?
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/Gulf.pdf
Planetary cooling, not regional cooling, for 50 to 150 years is due to solar magnetic cycle modulation of planetary cloud by an increase in clouds 40N to 60N and 40S to 60S. Low level clouds cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight into space.
rtj1211
Your queation about the extent of the 1740 cold spell.
Here is how Wikipedia described the extent of the cold weather
“During the ramp up to the crisis in January 1740, the winds and terrible cold intensified, yet barely any snow fell. Ireland was locked into a stable and vast high-pressure system which affected most of Europe, from Scandinavia and Russia to northern Italy, in a broadly similar way.”
I already posted information about similar cold weather in the eastern United States as Ronan pointed out earlier.
The year 1740 had the second coldest winter ever in UK after 1684. The spring was the 9th coldest, the summer was 27th coldest and the fall was 3rd coldest. The entire year 1740 was coldest ever in 355 years. Yet the winter of 1963 was the third coldest ever , so UK has experienced a similar winter fairly recently The cold winters of 1947,1917,1940 ,1979 and 1929 were no that far behind . More recently December 2010, and the first 6 months of 2013 are more signals that colder weather may be coming to Europe . The problem is that UK is still not prepared for cold winters and any attempt to warn UK as David is doing here and many others are doing seem to go on closed government ears with the unreal “ fight global warming only” agenda . In my judgment the possibility of more sustained colder weather is real for Europe and the unprepared will be affected the most.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
“SST’s at all-time record high off Northeast North America? Where’s Tisdale?”
There was a peak in 2010, but otherwise the trend is down since 2007:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/03/tisdale-on-the-curious-northern-hemisphere-sea-surface-temperature-anomaly-patterns/
herkimer says:
June 20, 2013 at 6:49 am
If you’re looking for a solar connection between the 1740 and 2009-11 cold events, I’d probably start with considering the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), because:
1.) There seems to be an anti-correlation between winter temperatures in Europe/eastern U.S. and Greenland/Arctic, e.g., van Loon & Rogers, 1978 : http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106%3C0296:TSIWTB%3E2.0.CO;2
2.) A lot of groups (including many of the ones jai mitchell refers to, as far as I remember?) argue that the 2009/10 & 2010/11 cold events were regional events related to the strongly negative phase of the NAO or the related Arctic Oscillation, e.g., Cohen et al., 2010 : http://web.mit.edu/~jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal_GRL10.pdf
3.) … and some researchers argue that the NAO is influenced by solar and/or geomagnetic variability, e.g., Bochníček & Hejda, 2006 : http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2004.07.014 (paywall, unfortunately!)
rtj1211 says:
“Is there data out there to suggest that the 1740 event was a global/widespread Northern Hemisphere event..”
I have direct astronomical evidence that the cold shots of Jan-Feb, May-June and Oct-Nov 1740 were caused by short term solar factors, so would have had to have a global impact.
herkimer says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:09 pm
“I looked at the CET ANNUAL TEMPERATURES which peaked at 10.47 C in 1733.You can check it on the Met Office data base HadCET mean.”
There is barely any cooling till from 1739. The CET average for 1730 to 1738 is 9.93, that does not get exceeded till from 1989.
Damn that CO2; it’s such a misleading gas!
This post would not seem to address my question; perhaps if you had made it clear that ‘jet streams’ appear as components to Rossby waves and Rossby waves appear to be affected by and also ‘effect’ weather systems on their own it would have amounted to a good start …
.
herkimer says:
June 20, 2013 at 5:37 am
It looks like there is no correlation what so ever with solar cycles in this case. And there is nothing in the Be10 record. My guess is that the most likely culprit is the Ap Index. The Ap Index tracks the solar cycle generally most of the time. Back in the 1970s though there was a significant positive divergence. Presumably there can also be a significant negative divergence. It is time to look at the Ap Index in detail and look for a change in character.
David Archibald says:
“The Ap Index tracks the solar cycle generally most of the time.”
There is often low Ap index close to or at maxima, and in the first 1-2yrs from minima. Look through CET and see the amount of very cold winters within a year of solar cycle maxima.
David
I tend to agree that I cannot find any specific solar event connection to the 1740 cold event unless solar events cause extended negative AO type of conditions that lasted for about a year.
What I was trying to say howvere is that colder winter events will happen 2 years from now not for the reasons that you suggest with wigggle matching but for different solar reasons . By 2015 we will have had 13 years without major solar activity such as during 2000-2003 maximum . In the past when there was such a long pauses in major solar activity , winters were colder more often.Like after1801 and after 1883. I have no feel on how cold it might get.