Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Ecological alarmist scares have a lot in common with zombies. They seem to eat up people’s brains, they are mindless themselves, and most important, they are really, really hard to kill. Take for example the long-discredited idea, first overthrown by Charles Darwin, that coral atolls are under threat from sea level rise. Darwin showed that to the contrary, coral atoll were created by rising sea levels.
Despite being totally untrue, this nursery tale of rising sea levels threatening coral atolls was resurrected by the Sierra Club regarding the supposed fate of the South Pacific island state of Tuvalu, and used by the Sierra Club and other environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as a cautionary tale to promote expensive energy.
Since then, a number of folks including myself have pointed out how ludicrous the claim is. And a study of historical aerial photos of the Pacific atolls by Webb and Kench showed that despite the rising sea levels, a majority of the atolls had either stayed the same or, in many cases, increased in size. To quote from the paper, “Results show that 86% of islands remained stable (43%) or increased in area (43%) over the timeframe of analysis.” And since the sea level was rising all that time, the claims of the Sierra Club have been shown to be total nonsense. But the bogus claim lives on, I read it again this week, so clearly not everyone has gotten the word.
Since I’m telling the story again, I’ll use a previous illustration, for two reasons. First, because it shows exactly how a coral atoll is built and sustained, and second, I drew it and as a result I am quite unjustifiably proud of it …
Figure 1. Cross section through a typical coral atoll. The living coral is shown in light green, and it is in the ring of shallow water between the dotted green line and the beach. The atoll used for the photo in this example is Tepoto Atoll, French Polynesia.
Now, undaunted by the untruth of their claims, the PR campaign goes on, with the atoll nation of the Maldives pulling stunts like an underwater cabinet meeting to try to raise money from their imaginary “plight” … in fact, begging for funds because your coral atoll is under threat from rising sea levels seems to be developing into a bit of a cottage industry.
So to provide a counterweight to this recurring myth, to drive yet another stake through the heart of this zombie, let me repeat the story of why the parrotfish should be the national bird of every coral atoll state and nation. I’ll give you the tale in a nutshell.
Coral atolls are not a solid “island” as we understand an island. They are not a solid chunk of land surrounded by water. Instead they are best thought of as a momentary hesitation in a (hopefully) continuous slow-motion river of coral rubble and sand. This slow-motion river is composed of nothing more or less than the bones of the reef itself, the broken off and ground up parts of the reef’s coral skeleton. A healthy reef grows ceaselessly, and its upper limbs are constantly being broken off by the endless waves when they dare grow too near to the life-giving light. This coral rubble is slowly swept by the waves up onto the atoll, and from there it is equally slowly returned by waves and wind back to the ocean.
The sad truth is, coral atolls are not held together by anything except temporal inertia. They are nothing but a loose pile of coral rubble and sand. And as you might imagine, such an unconsolidated pile is eaten away by every stray current and wind and footstep. Every moment of every day, every coral atoll on the planet is losing its precious land, eroded back into the ocean by the ceaseless pull of gravity, wind, and waves.
So how do coral atolls survive? Obviously, for an atoll to survive the ceaseless loss of its land to erosion, it must be continually replenished by an equally ceaseless supply of coral rubble and sand.
And if that supply of rubble and sand slows, the atoll shrinks. If that supply slows, the freshwater lens shrinks.
And if the reef dies, if that endless supply of cast-off coral stops?
The atoll disappears. Might take five years or fifty, but if the reef dies, the atoll disappears.
So the story in a nutshell is this:
Coral atolls grow and shrink, not based on sea level rise, but based on the health and vitality and extent of their coral reef—the unseen source of the (hopefully) endless river of coral rubble sand that keeps the atoll from vanishing.
The amazing thing about humans and coral atolls is that we can live there at all. There is a small freshwater lens that provides a bit of water. This lens is not contained by anything, but actually floats on top of the underground surface of the salt water that interpenetrates the lower part of the atoll. If you pump the lens of fresh water too much, you start pumping seawater. When there’s not enough rain, the well water becomes brackish. There is generally no topsoil worthy of the name, just salty coral sand mixed with a small bit of organic material. There are no sources of energy, no forests for wood, no oil or coal. There are not a lot of plants that can survive at all under such conditions. And the very existence of the atoll itself is at the mercy of the health of the reef, not to mention the occasional hurricane that can overtop the reef and push the pile of rubble and sand right back into the ocean, or wipe away one end, or cut a channel right through the middle. It is a tenuous existence even at the best of times.
So what is the real threat to the coral atolls? What’s the true story regarding the Sierra Club’s description of the washing away of part of an atoll in Tuvalu? Why do the islanders report that they are drawing salty water out of their wells?
The answer is that indeed these problems are the fault of humans … just not by way of CO2.
The big threat to the existence of the atolls comes from the local inhabitants mistreating the reef that keeps their heads above water.
And the big threat to the atolls’ fresh water supply is the combination of reef destruction and overpopulation.
…
For example, the folks in the Maldives have built a number of lovely tourist hotels. Of course, to build them you need mortar and concrete, and for that you need sand. Coral sand makes terrible concrete, but it’s all they have. There is no quartz beach sand available to build with, just chunks of coral and coral sand. So the Maldivians mined the coral from their reefs to use to build their hotels and houses. Then they brought in scads of tourists every year, to help them drink up the freshwater lens … and now they are saying that the industrialized nations should compensate them because their well water is brackish, and the atolls are washing away.
Now, as you might imagine, the truth in this tale is not popular in the atolls at all. Like everyone else in the world, folks there would much rather believe that their troubles are anyone’s fault but their own. So I understand them desperately trying to prop up the false narrative about CO2 and sea level rise being the culprits. When you live in a place that has nothing, you need to grab for every chance you can.
But I’m a man who grew up in the middle of the forest, and has worked extensively as a commercial fisherman. And like many people with that background, I’ve been a devoted environmentalist for my entire adult life.
Which is why I feel so betrayed by the hijacking of the big environmental NGOs by people obsessed with raising energy prices and restricting fossil fuel use. I can understand the islanders continuing the charade. I can’t understand the environmental NGOs not acknowledging their mistake regarding sea level rise, and moving on.
Because far from admitting that they were wrong, the Sierra Club and Greenpeace and the like are still making these same bogus claims of danger to coral atolls from sea level rise, centuries after Darwin first showed them wrong, and when their claims have been shown untrue by actual measurement of the atolls involved.
This hijacking of the big environmental NGOs by anti-development forces directly harms the environment in a number of ways.
First, every dollar the environmental organizations spend on trying to raise energy prices (by attacking CO2) is a dollar not going to its declared purpose of helping the environment.
Second, the misidentification of the cause of atoll deterioration as being sea level rise has prevented people from noticing, addressing and correcting the actual causes of atoll deterioration, which are reef health and human overpopulation.
Third, blaming the innocent (far-away users of fossil fuels) for the woes that the atoll dwellers have brought on themselves just angers the unjustly accused. It doesn’t lead to solutions.
Fourth, it has led to a cottage industry of demanding reparation for atoll damage. Since the demands for reparation are being made by the very people who are actually causing the damage, this will not end well.
Fifth, and most important, the focus on raising energy prices (to reduce CO2 emissions) keeps the third world poor. The effects are already being felt in such actions as the World Bank denying loans for coal-fired plants in India.
How does that hurt the environment? The sad reality is that only when people have their basic needs covered can they afford to worry about the environment. No country has ever undertaken serious environmental repair and restoration until the people were generally well fed and clothed.
And inexpensive energy is an indispensable part of that equation. When did inexpensive energy turn from being the “savior of the American farmer” to being something that Western rich folks are denying to India?
The push for expensive energy by the “environmental” NGOs is hugely damaging to the economies of the poor countries, and through them, to the environment itself.
Because if the poor folk in Africa cannot get inexpensive energy for cooking and heating, they will eventually cut down every forest and burn up every stick of firewood on the continent. They will hate to do it, they will mourn the destruction … but unless and until they have some other way to cook and heat, the environment will be under huge destructive pressure. It’s a crazy, all-too-human paradox, that the only thing that can possibly save the global environment is the very economic development that many environmentalists oppose. And my concern for the environment is one reason that I’ve spent a good chunk of my life living in poor countries and working on their economic development.
So that’s why I feel betrayed. The same environmental organizations whose founding I cheered decades ago because they were protecting the environment, have morphed into monsters which are actively harming the environment in a host of ways, and setting humans at each other’s throats over imagined wrongs. Even worse, they think that inexpensive energy and economic development are the dangers … when the truth is that when half the planet is living on a couple bucks a day, inexpensive energy and economic development are the only things that will save us from slow-motion ecological catastrophe. I’m deadly serious.
The poor folks in Africa will burn every tree on the continent if the economic conditions demand it, and I would too if my kids were hungry. When your kids are hungry, all the barriers are down, all the boundaries are meaningless. Environmental destruction means nothing to a hungry man, and even less to a woman with hungry kids. I once asked a firewood seller in Costa Rica where he was cutting his firewood. “En el Parque Nacionál,” he said, “In the National Park”. I asked politely whether that might be, well, you know … illegal … “Oh, yes,” he said, “I feel bad about that, but when my children are hungry, what can I do?”
I had no answer for him.
And that is how, paradoxically and tragically, the anti-development, pro-expensive energy actions of the big environmental NGO’s are doing huge, present, and continuing damage to the poor and through them to the environment the NGOs are supposed to protect.
Now, does this make me want to stop being an environmentalist? Not at all. I know that the only way that my as-yet-hypothetical grandkids will be able to be commercial fisherfolk is if we take care that we don’t damage the ocean. Protecting the ecosystems and the natural resources are a no-brainer for anyone actively involved with the natural world.
So in response, about all that I can do is to not go gentle into that good night. This is me raging against the passing of the light.
And where do the parrotfish fit into all of this?
Well, as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, parrotfish use their hard beaks to bite off chunks of coral. These chunks of coral are ground into sand by hard plates in the parrotfish’s throat. The parrotfish digests what’s digestible, and excretes copious amounts of the finest, loveliest, tropical beach sand. It’s interesting to watch, because they have to grind up a lot of coral to get a little food. As a result, sometimes when a school of them is surprised by something, and the whole school decides to simultaneously “dump the ballast and run”, the water where they were is instantly filled with a cloud of slowly descending pure white sand, while the parrotfish are now well down the reef.
Yes, it’s true. All of those lovely tropical beaches? They’ve mostly composed of coral that was lovingly hand-ground by parrotfish.
But creating tropical beaches, that’s just the benefit to the humans. The parrotfish are also vital to the health of the reef. This is because a coral reef is always in competition with various kinds of algae and plants. Since the coral reef is the only solid surface available, various green things are always trying to colonize the surface. This is to the detriment of the coral polyps who are building the reef. The grazing of the parrotfish is a major mechanism for keeping the greenery from overtaking the reef … I’ve seen overgrown reefs, and they’re not a pretty picture.
The parrotfish also exposes fresh coral surfaces when it bites out chunks of coral. These are then available for colonization by further coral polyps. As with most natural systems, the presence of grazers greatly increases the health and productivity of the reef ecosystem. And in addition to creating sand, when the fish are grazing they also break loose chunks of coral … coral that will eventually end up added to the atoll itself.
As a result, parrotfish are a “keystone species”, a species of special importance in the life of an ecosystem. The sad news is, the parrotfish sleep at night on reef, wrapped in a shroud of mucus. Strangest thing you every saw, you can go right up to them. As a result, since the onset of waterproof flashlights, locals and tourists have stripped many reefs of their parrotfish. Without the protection of the parrotfish, the reef declines, algae advances, and the sand production stops … and when the reef declines, the atoll shrinks and the lens of freshwater gets smaller …
And that is why the parrotfish should be the national bird of every tropical coral atoll—because without them the atoll is in trouble. It should not be fished for the market, it should not be killed by night divers to be served in restaurants. It should be off-limits, a protected species, both as a practical matter for the continued health of the reef, and as a symbol of the importance of the reef upon which depends the very existence of the atoll itself.
Is making the reef healthy all it will take to save the atolls? Well … no. They also have to stop the population growth. A coral atoll is tiny, only a few square kilometres of land. More importantly, the fresh water lens is correspondingly small. Since it is only replenished by rain, this limited water puts a practical maximum on the island population, a maximum which these days is routinely exceeded … and then they complain that rising sea levels are making their wells brackish. The wells are indeed getting brackish … but not from rising sea levels.
Like I said, this is not a popular message in the atolls, but unfortunately it’s the truth. I’d like to say that there’s some silver bullet for the atoll problems, but I don’t know of one. So all I can do is keep telling the real story, in the hope of counteracting the destructive propaganda coming from the Sierra Club and other environmental NGOs … I figure I may not slay the Hydra, but at least I might get a-head …
w.
PS—please be clear that I am not speaking against the environmental movement, of which I have long counted myself as an active member. In large part, the movement is made up of local people working on important local issues.
Nor am I speaking against the real environmental gains that we humans have made. The cleaning of the rivers and the air in much of the industrialized world is a story of achievement and hope.
I am talking about the change in many of the big environmental organizations, which for better or for worse are the public face of the movement. The organizations have transmuted from being for responsible development and for the environment, to being against all development and thus actively harming the environment.
The environmental NGOs’ fight against affordable inexpensive energy is a modern tragedy. Inexpensive energy is the only hope for the poor of the planet, and the economic development of the poor is necessary BEFORE a country can start addressing environmental issues. As a result, the NGOs’ war on inexpensive energy is causing huge, long-term environmental damage.

So that’s why I feel betrayed. The same environmental organizations whose founding I cheered decades ago because they were protecting the environment, have morphed into monsters which are actively harming the environment in a host of ways, and setting humans at each other’s throats over imagined wrongs. Even worse, they think that inexpensive energy and economic development are the dangers … when the truth is that when half the planet is living on a couple bucks a day, inexpensive energy and economic development are the only things that will save us from slow-motion ecological catastrophe. I’m deadly serious.
Me too! 40 years ago I supported the WWF because they were at that time actually supporting world wildlife. Now most of the environmental NGOs are completely off track from those laudable origins. Frankly with all the money that WWF now has they could make huge inroads into curbing the rapidly shrinking orangutan population in Indonesia. And support chimp and elephant population growth in Africa. While at the same time supporting local human populations in those places and other places in the world. Frankly I would rejoin them in these sort of efforts. The way it is now, I am not happy with their goals or their silly ideas. So they do not get my money or support.
Bernie
Willis, just a quick note: you said
“They’ve mostly composed of coral that was lovingly hand-ground by parrotfish.”
Besides that parrotfish don’t have hands, really you mean individually pooped out 🙂
“cause the surface layer of peat to start oxidising and releasing CO2 and it is more than likely that this dry out the nature reserve leading to the invasion of willow which will then further dry out the area and fairly soon there will not be much worth saving?”
Dried peat burns well. In fact it burns and burns and burns and is rather hard to put out, especially when the burning reaches far into the ground. I’ve seen helicopter firefighters spending DAYS (and lotsa tax payer dollars) trying to put out such a fire. In the end some generator powered pumps were brought onsite and river water from less than 20m away was pumped over to flood the entire area … and they kept it flooded for months after that !
… and your mob want to build a housing estate next to such a place ?
I shouldn’t laugh … our mob want to build the city’s new main stadium ON TOP of the place I just talked about. I imagine that I’m not the only person who grew up near the Swan River in Perth in the vicinity of the Belmont Park race course who is somewhat bemused by the plan.
I wonder what sort of engineering will be involved to counter the foundation upsetting effects of the ground smouldering away beneath it ?
PICKERING. Have you no morals, man?
DOOLITTLE [unabashed] Can’t afford them, Governor. Neither could you if you was as poor as me.
One of your best ever posts, Willis. Truth delivered with the force of impeccable science, a Mjölnir blow to the forehead of ignorance. There needs to be an airdrop of thousands of your atoll image and analysis over the political centers of all the populated atolls of the world. They need to understand the solution to their problem is not found in destroying US tax payers’s livelihoods. Tuvalu will never be the paradise they desire – the atolls simply cannot support themselves and the legions of backward thinking humanity that are killing them.
Yes, it’s true. All of those lovely tropical beaches? They’ve mostly composed of coral that was lovingly hand-ground by parrotfish.
====================
…….Halimeda
I wonder how the Bikini Atoll is doing nowadays.
It was depopulated before the big boom down there.
The Bikini garment has shrunk in response to global warming.
Ryan says-
“rising seas have wiped out thousands of atoll islands in the past”
Please share your source for this statement.
Otherwise pass the bowl of what ever you are smoking, it must be some good chit man!
iSavage says:
June 13, 2013 at 12:46 am
This should be required reading in schools.
In fact, the education system is part of the problem. So-called educators routinely spread the propaganda disseminated by the NGOs, not least, the Sierra Club.
>> Jack Savage says:
This should be required reading in schools.<<
No chance of that, Jack.
It's got facts in it.
I was one of the early Greenpeace members when their focus was on saving whales and protesting atomic testing in the Aleutian Islands. When they actually had scientists on board and they actually made sense. While still an environmentalist (and one before many of the current environuts were born) I see most if not all “Environmental” organizations sidelined into activism with little regard for science and facts. They are big moneymaking organizations with self-sustainability as their prime goal. This was an excellent article – one I copied (I hope that was ok Willis) to show others who are still on the “Maldives are sinking” wagon. Maybe I can change one persons mind. Naive perhaps – but I will at least say I tried.
Thanks, Willis. You share the best!
Coral atolls, like ocean clouds ….
Their beauty is their threat.
Ryan says:
June 13, 2013 at 5:14 am
Citations, please, to maybe only a mere dozen of the “thousands of atoll islands” that have been wiped out by rising seas. If indeed there are thousands of them, surely you can give us the locations of a dozen of them.
Citation, please, to the “drowned fringing reefs” that the tropical Pacific is allegedly “full” of … since the Pacific is full of them, provided the location of a dozen or so shouldn’t strain you at all.
Unless, of course, you mean the “drowned” reef of the lower reaches of many atolls, which is the remains of the original reef when the sea level was much lower. Of course, that same reef is still living up near the surface, but certainly down where the sea level was hundreds or thousands of years ago, you will find the remains of the original reef. I assume you’re not referring to that, though …
I await your report with the location of the wiped-out atolls …
w.
PS—yes, reefs can get drowned, just as they can die. In general a healthy reef can stay well ahead of the sea level rise. However, such natural events as landslides or volcanoes can cause siltation, one of the reef’s biggest enemies, and result in a weakened reef that is unable to keep up with rising sea levels.
In addition, in some places the islands have sunk very, very fast, even catastrophically, and of course no reef could keep up with that.
So yes, there are likely scattered atolls that have been wiped out, although usually by cyclone rather than by sea level rise. And curiously, if the reef isn’t damaged, an atoll may well reappear in the same exact location.
But in general? The atolls that exist today exist because they have always been able to grow faster than the sea level rise, and there is no reason to assume that if they are healthy they will not do so indefinitely. So I’m sorry, Ryan, but your claim that the current crop of atolls, the successful ones, are suddenly in grave danger simply isn’t true.
Great read, Willis! Thank you.
After reading this I notice that many of the South Pacific beaches have different textures of sand. Some are chunky with large bits of coral mixed in and others are very fine white sand.
I used to think it was just a function of typhoons that broke up coral, but now I realize it’s perhaps the population density of parrotfish around the island.
How cool is that? Providing, of course, you don’t think too much about it and realize that when you are luxuriating on a fine sandy beach, sipping cold coconutty drinks with tiny umbrellas stuck in them, you are actually lying in parrotfish poo…..
Submerged atolls are better known as reefs and there’s no shortage of examples. Given time they may grow above the surface. Such reefs can be connected by shoals which come and go.
There are seamounts that were exposed at the sea surface during the last glacial period and to which coral polyps surely attached themselves and which formed atolls, shoals, and reefs. Post glacial sea rise, the kind that produces this: http://www.culture.gouv.fr/culture/archeosm/en/fr-cosqu1.htm, outpaces the ability of coral-based replenishment to keep up, so the atolls disappear under the rising sea to become seamounts again.
At various times, Cortez Bank off San Diego is an island or a seamount/reef. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortes_Bank
I had read that, and found it far from convincing. They claim that coral reefs can’t keep up with a sea level rise of more than 8″ per century … and since the relative sea level has gone up much more than that in many areas where coral reefs are currently thriving, I found the results to be far from real world outcomes.
w.
dp, thanks for the information, but I am assuming, (maybe wrongly, but I don’t think so) that Ryan is insinuating AGW/CAGW/ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change)/ CACC as being the reason the Atolls are being “wiped out”.
If he wasn’t, then I apologize for my remark, but his previous posts on other threads here indicate he believes we are at fault for all that is “wrong” on this planet in the eyes of the warmists.
dp says:
June 13, 2013 at 9:13 am
Well, it’s clear you’re not a seaman. Actually, almost any underwater shallows is often called a “reef”. From the dictionary:
I’m still waiting for the location of the “thousands” of atolls that were wiped out … you, like the previous guy, claim that they exist in huge numbers, but somehow you forgot to give us the location of even one of the “thousands” …
It is known that a lot of exposed shallows and islands were submerged when the sea level rose by a couple hundred feet when the ice sheets that covered Chicago a a half mile deep melted in a short time.
And I suppose that means that if we were to come out of the current ice age and get another 200′ (60 metre) sea level rise in a short time, that some current atolls might be drowned … wait, what’s that you say? We’re not in an ice age, so we can’t come out of it? The ocean is unlikely to rise another two hundred feet?
Oh. Guess that ends that.
In reality, the rate of sea level rise has shown absolute no sign of the acceleration that has been foretold many times by the alarmists. And the atolls have had absolutely no trouble coping with that rise for the last 5000 years or so. So no, the current rate of sea level rise or anything near the current rate is absolutely not a threat to the atolls.
San Diego, at 32°N latitude, is well north of the most northernmost of coral atolls. As a result, what you are describing has nothing to do with coral reefs. Cortes Bank is a rocky island when it is periodically exposed by the 200′ drop in sea level that occurs during the ice ages, and a rocky reef when it is underwater. From your citation, emphasis mine:
Cortez Bank is an interesting reef, of great interest to surfers like myself, but immaterial to a discussion of coral reefs. As I said above, not all reefs are made of coral, most are sand or rock.
w.
I ran across this statement recently:
http://www.fcpp.org/publication.php/4586
FC: You mentioned that the policy involves the largest wealth transfer between the poor and the rich in history during your talk. Can you just expand on that?
BP: We are talking about a wealth transfer in the order of about 600 billion euros in the last eight years. Subsidies paid to green investors mainly land owners and very wealthy families who put up large solar panels on their farms or roofs. These 600 billion euros are being paid by ordinary families and small, medium sized businesses to the most privileged members of European society. That is the biggest wealth transfer in modern Europe for a very, very, long time if not ever.
Unfortunately the policies that are intended to divert the money of wealthy nations to the worlds poor seem to drive the money in the opposite direction. The inhabitants of the atolls may find that they do not achieve what they wish to achieve.
OK, I figured out where Ryan was getting his misinformation, from the usual font of nonsense, the deceptively-named “SkepticalScience” blog. There, they make the identical claim, that there are “thousands” of drowned atolls.
However, that author actually says what he is referring to, which are called “Guyots”. However, he doesn’t seem to understand what a guyot is, even though he cites a wikipedia article which says:
A guyot is a volcano whose top got sawed off by waves, not a drowned atoll. Guyots are up to a hundred million years old, although there are a few that are only a million years old. They are not relics of the sea level rise from the last ice age, they went underwater millions of years ago.
So the claim that the guyots represent “drowned atolls” is a joke. There’re guyots in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, for goodness sake, and up by the Aleutian Islands, and surely they were never atolls in their lives.
The SkS claim that there are “thousands of drowned atolls” is based on the number of guyots … many of which are nowhere near the tropics. Nice try.
Did some guyots have a reef at one time? Sure, reefs get started wherever conditions allow. Do all of the coral reefs that get started survive under all conditions? Of course not. Local waters may be too cool, or not basic enough, or too silty, there’s lots of ways to slow or stop reef growth. Heck, a bad enough volcanic eruption could create a barren guyot where reef once flourished. That’s created plenty of guyots in the “Hawaiian-Emperor” chain of islands, underwater mountains and guyots that include the Hawaiian Islands.
But the atolls that have survived are not under threat. They are the ones where the conditions are right, and they have survived the sea level rise and fall for thousand and thousands of years.
The lack of science in SkepticalScience is profound … and their claim that current conditions threaten atoll nations is totally refuted by the actual measurements showing that over the past fifty years, DESPITE STEADILY RISING SEA LEVELS, 43% of the measured atolls have stayed the same in land area, and 43% of the atolls have actually grown in size. We know there was sea level rise … does that look like damage to you, most atolls staying the same size or increasing?
Another brilliant theory gone aground on an inconvenient reef of hard facts … atoll nations are not disappearing, almost half are increasing in size.
Funny how the geniuses over at SkS don’t even come near to touching that one …
w.
Not just “reefs” but vast tracts of continental shelf were exposed at the Last Glacial Maximum, such as the Grand Banks and Georges Bank, when MSL was hundreds of feet lower, despite ice sheets weighing down the continents. OTOH, many features now exposed were inundated at the Holocene sea level maximum about 6800 years ago, when it was about ten feet higher than now:
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/11/4/395.short
So on the long term (kiloyears), the seas are regressing, while on the short term (years, decades or centuries) rising, as MSL recovers from the lower levels of the LIA. And even this rise has slowed lately. Whether sea level is rising or falling depends on the time scale used.
Seamounts, eroded, extinct volcano tops submerged millions of years ago, like the Emperor Seamounts which are vestiges of the Pacific Plate’s movement over the Hawaiian Hotspot, often make excellent fishing grounds. There’s a well-known one off the central Oregon coast, courtesy of the active Juan de Fuca Plate.
Let me remind folks that the line of BS being peddled by the big environmental NGOs (and the SkepticalScience website) is not that the atolls might face some future damage in some future world.
The claim is that they are currently being damaged by sea level rise, and have been for a decade or more. That’s what the Sierra Club said when they opened the bidding on this lunacy, and their claim hasn’t changed.
So while we can never show that they atolls will not face some unknown future threat, this claim of past and current damage is disproven by actual measurements, as well as by the survival of the atolls over hundreds of years of sea level rises as great as those of today.
w.
Willis,
Thanks for the research! I’m at work and didn’t have the time at the moment. I guess this also allows me to withdraw my previous apology.
Also, can I claim credit for coining the term Anthropogenic Climate Change as well as Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change? Which is what warmists claim now since AGW and CAGW have run their course.
I don’t deny the climate changes, I deny man can affect the climate in any meaningful way, short of launching every nuclear missle known at one time, then we may have an affect!
Peter
Willis, I enjoy immensely your technical posts but also your bio series – retire early and retire often. In the spirit of the latter, I recommend the book,
“The Sea Devil – The Story Of Count Felix Von Luckner, The German War [WW I] Raider” by Lowell Thomas (republished Nov 21, 2008).
I heard the count speak post WW II as a mid teen and was awed. This gentleman pirate roamed Atlantic and Pacific in a sailing ship and captured and sank about a dozen allied freighters, and never lost a soul. Things got hotter after he disgorged his hotel guests at a neutral port. Restocking on an atoll he got wrecked there by tsunami and did a Captain Blligh to capture another ship. It goes on… His early life was sailing at sea w/ ore adventure. What a guy !
…HHP