From the University of Melbourne
Scientists narrow global warming range
Australian scientists have narrowed the predicted range of global warming through groundbreaking new research.
Scientists from the University of Melbourne and Victoria University have generated what they say are more reliable projections of global warming estimates at 2100.
The paper, led by Dr Roger Bodman from Victoria University with Professors David Karoly and Peter Rayner from the University of Melbourne and published in Nature Climate Change today, found that exceeding 6 degrees warming was now unlikely while exceeding 2 degrees is very likely for business-as-usual emissions.
This was achieved through a new method combining observations of carbon dioxide and global temperature variations with simple climate model simulations to project future global warming.
Dr Bodman said while continuing to narrow the range even further was possible, significant uncertainty in warming predictions would always remain due to the complexity of climate change drivers. “This study ultimately shows why waiting for certainty will fail as a strategy,” he said. “Some uncertainty will always remain, meaning that we need to manage the risks of warming with the knowledge we have.”
The study found 63% of uncertainty in projected warming was due to single sources – such as climate sensitivity, followed by future behaviour of the carbon cycle and the cooling effect of aerosols – while 37% of uncertainty came from the combination of these sources.
“This means that if any single uncertainty is reduced – even the most important, climate sensitivity – significant uncertainty will remain,” Dr Bodman said.
Professor Karoly said the study reinforced the importance of strong action on climate change.
“Our results reconfirm the need for urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to avoid exceeding the global warming target of 2 degrees needed to minimise dangerous climate change,” he said.
Dr Bodman is Postgraduate Research Fellow at Victoria University’s Centre for Strategic Economic Studies. Professor Karoly and Professor Rayner are from the University of Melbourne’s School of Earth Sciences and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate
System Science.
Source: http://newsroom.melbourne.edu/news/scientists-narrow-global-warming-range
Unfortunately, this press release doesn’t give a citation to the paper, a basic failure of reporting. I’ve asked this be corrected – Anthony
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The next step is for Pachauri to claim that they predicted the 30 years of cooling, but they didn’t think that it would be significant. Plus this Earth will eventually be consumed by global warming, so we need to act, now!!!
Quote: ” This was achieved through a new method combining observations of carbon dioxide and global temperature variations with simple climate model simulations to project future global warming.”
So they fixed the result of their simple climate models first (global warming = fact) and then adjusted their simple climate models to compute the amount of the desired result?
Classy.
The A1B scenario appears to show that from 2000 to now temps are stable to falling.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/images/nclimate1903-f1.jpg
The other scenarious don’t appear to show the 21st Century pause, though A2 seems to show a drop from now to around 2030.
Somehow I don’t remember the FAR containing these drops. Is my memory going?
Take off another 4, I suspect they will be closer.
“Our results reconfirm the need for urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to avoid exceeding the global warming target of 2 degrees needed to minimise dangerous climate change,” he said.
Dangerous? I love it when they do that! None of these guys ever talk about the benefits of a warmer climate. I wonder if they feel that by walking back their expectations of the amount of rise by 2100, they’d be hard pressed to get any press…or far worse, be lumped in with the evil deniers?
Anyone who claims to be able to forecast the climate in 2100 is either a fool or a charlatan. Or possibly both.
Chris
This is what is called the slow back down phase 1 of AGW. Next will be phase 2, 1C next year and then 0C in about 5 years LOL Very neat way to get out of AGW without being noticed haha
{ Professor Karoly said the study reinforced the importance of strong action on climate change. }
Isn’t that special.
Glance at the words ..spot the name Karoly at the bottom .. no need to read much more
..spot the link to theconversation.com The Notorious GreenLeft Propaganda site out of Australia.. spot the title “Uncertainty no excuse for procrastinating on climate change” .. so it’s just an excuse to push more alarmism
– @Ben Klijn says they have published the same paper before .. isn’t that against normal practice ?
If only there was a way that all governments could work together without egotistical people messing it up with power issues.