While the alarmists wail over 400PPM of CO2, and push doom and gloom crop failure scenarios, in the real world where people risk money and livelihood, the news is far, far, better.
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-25/world-grain-harvest-seen-jumping-7-by-igc-on-corn-crop-surge.html
Of course Paul Ehrlich thinks the world will end (again).
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Contemplating Collapse
by Paul Ehrlich
It’s been three months since Anne and I summarized our views on this topic for the Royal Society, and we’ve been pleased that it has generated a fair amount of discussion and particularly, invitations to share our take on the future in various forum in the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand. So far the paper has not elicited any significant attacks, save one “rebuttal” based on climate denial that was rejected by a journal. But it has also not yet generated some of the discussion we might have hoped for, especially on key issues such as how to buffer the global agricultural system against global change so as to retain a real possibility of at least maintaining today’s nutritional situation and steps that need to be taken to increase human security against vast epidemics (such as that which now may be threatened by the H7N9 “bird flu” virus).
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Source: http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=88e1f9157b8a1070712b4dd12&id=22001abf1d&e=f8b6a6b78b
I’d love to see him explain how the world agricultural system will collapse in the face of gains like this, it should be entertaining.
Every university has their own nutty professor. As long as people recognize that Paul Ehrlich is just that, and that none of his gloom and doom scenarios have come true, we’ll all be fine.
Ehrlich is the poster child for why tenure shouldn’t be a permanent thing, but one that you have to be reviewed at some interval to keep.
“India’s declining fertility rate (at 2.5), now only slightly higher than that of the United States (2.1), is part of a global trend of lower population growth (see chart above).”
If you want the truth, the TFR in the US dropped to 1.7 in 2011. The number of live births per 1000 females in the US dropped to 63 – the lowest in our national history. And using UN data, the US has only had TFRs above 2.1 5 times since 1970. Yes, the numbers went up between 1990 and 2005 – but that was mainly due to the increased fertility of Hispanics. Since then, Hispanic fertility has plunged from around 3.0 to less than 2.4 children per female. Another metric to use is our Median Age. The Median Age in the US in 1972 was 24. Today it is 37. In Europe it is 45.
I too have followed population trends the last 4-5 years, and like you I am astounded by the lack of concern in academia and society in general. If trends continue, the global population will peak sometime around 2040-50 before beginning a sharp drop-off. Yes, our populations continue to grow, but the globe is getting much older at a much quicker pace. In other words, people are leaving (dieing) at a much slower rate. The economic implications are obvious. Older populations consume and produce less energy, food, and consumer goods. A global recession is on the horizon and no one is seeing it coming. AGW will be quickly forgotten.
Isn’t it odd we sowed more acres of corn 77 years ago? Nothing quite sums up progress better.
Any fearing a global population bomb need to take a reality check with the very elegant TED presentation by Hans Rosling.
As Particia Durbin said “the purpose of scientific research is to overcome the limitations of intuition”.