Dr. Roy Spencer reports:
Our Version 5.5 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2013 is +0.10 deg. C, down from +0.18 deg. C in March (click for large version):
Not surprisingly, the cooling appears to be confined to the Northern Hemisphere…the global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2012 1 -0.134 -0.065 -0.203 -0.256
2012 2 -0.135 +0.018 -0.289 -0.320
2012 3 +0.051 +0.119 -0.017 -0.238
2012 4 +0.232 +0.351 +0.114 -0.242
2012 5 +0.179 +0.337 +0.021 -0.098
2012 6 +0.235 +0.370 +0.101 -0.019
2012 7 +0.130 +0.256 +0.003 +0.142
2012 8 +0.208 +0.214 +0.202 +0.062
2012 9 +0.339 +0.350 +0.327 +0.153
2012 10 +0.333 +0.306 +0.361 +0.109
2012 11 +0.282 +0.299 +0.265 +0.172
2012 12 +0.206 +0.148 +0.264 +0.138
2013 1 +0.504 +0.555 +0.453 +0.371
2013 2 +0.175 +0.368 -0.018 +0.168
2013 3 +0.183 +0.329 +0.038 +0.226
2013 4 +0.103 +0.119 +0.087 +0.168
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William Astley says:
May 4, 2013 at 7:58 pm
A note of caution about the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. In the following paper on Holocene climate variability,
http://elearning.zaou.ac.zm:8060/Science/Oceanography/Encyclopedia%20of%20Ocean%20Sciences/Holocene%20Climate%20Variability.pdf
there is a reference at the top of page 1214 of research by Wunsch suggesting that periodic paleo-climate events with a 1500 year periodicity might be an aliasing artefact”:
One cautionary note is that Wunsch has suggested a more radical explanation for the pervasive 1500-year cycle seen in both deep-sea and ice core, glacial and interglacial records. Wunsch suggests that the extremely narrow spectral lines (less than two bandwidths) that have been found at about 1500 years in many paleo-records may be due to aliasing.
The 1500-year peak appears precisely at the period predicted for a simple alias of the seasonal cycle sampled inadequately (under the Nyquist criterion) at integer multiples of the common year. When Wunsch removes this peak from the Greenland ice core data and deep-sea spectral records, the climate variability appears as expected to be a continuum process in the millennial band. This work suggests that finding a cyclicity of 1500 years in a dataset may not represent the true periodicity of the millennial-scale events. The Holocene Dansgaard-Oeschger events are quasi periodic, with different and possibly stochastic influences.
Reference: Wunsch C (2000) On sharp spectral lines in the climate record and millennial peak. Paleoceanography 15: 417-424.
Later in the paper by Maslin et al., figure 6 on page 1216 is a nice presentation of the state of knowledge of the reasons behind climate variability over a wide range of timescales.
UAH global temperature, down significantly
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I’m going to take exception to the use of the word “significantly” when talking about fractions of a degree. We are talking about miniscule amounts when compared to daily, day-to-day and seasonal temperature fluctuations.
Only in climate science do we look at small chaotic fluctuations and try and extrapolate them linearly into the future and arrive at nonsense answers. If we extrapolate the 10C of natural warming that takes place each morning, this is some 1.5 Million C of warming per century!! We are all doomed.
beng says:
May 5, 2013 at 6:46 am
They understand that they need to at least show a similar drop or rise as the sat record (or they’d be completely unbelievable), so they wait until the sat records come out to “fine-tune” the surface records.
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Amazing that NASA GISS has all these satellites in orbit, yet builds its temperature records using surface thermometer data. That in itself tells you everything you need to know about GISS. It is producing a political document, not a temperature record.
If GISS was in fact interested in accurate temperature data, they would be using satellites to accurately sample the entire planet, rather than a crude Hodge-podege of surface stations subject to adjustments on top of adjustments on top of adjustments.
I was hoping for an El Nino to break the drought in the SW US. Oh well … 🙁
Lady Life Grows says:
May 4, 2013 at 7:14 pm
+ 0.1 C anomaly is “cooling?” That’s as bad as our enemies’ reasoning….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The word is “cooling” not cool.
This is the same sort of mistake cause by imprecise use of language that Gerald Roe corrected in his 2006 paper, In defense of Milankovitch
Who’s in charge of the widget? Today is May 6th. Surely by now we should have a handle on the April anomaly. Very definitely by now we should know what the March CO2 was. This is not a happy situation. If it’s a question of someone not having three minutes every month to update the latest figures, gee I’m sure I can manage.
There’s that four letter word; “significantly” , well maybe four sill apples !
Maybe it’s down significantly, relative to the possible error in the measurement (see the error bars); me neither !
Well if it was down 20% of the p-p range, it could be called significant. See that 1.0 degree C jump from 1997-1998; now that is a significant event; this isn’t.
Notice how averaging seriously changes the facts.
Love the UV mechanism theory.But dont you have it backwards?
Recently UV was very high,while the Arctic was leaking cold with a jetstream heading south.
“ThinAir says:
May 4, 2013 at 2:58 pm
“But how should we understand the unusually high anomaly in January 2013 (for Global, NH, SH and Tropics)? As noise in the measurements, or as something meaningful (e.g., related ENSO, sun’s output, etc)?,…….but yet so very brief?”
Let me hazard a guess. The main effect of a quiet sun is to remove the temperature inversion at the winter pole. This allows arctic air to move southward, guided over the continental land masses by blocking from the high pressure systems over the oceans. The oceans themselves and the tropics are not much affected (may see some compensating warming). An active sun produces increased UV which heats the stratosphere which produces the temperature inversion. Under active conditions this has the effect of bottling up the arctic air and preventing it from moving southward. The overall radiation balance is approximately maintained, but the northern land masses get a few degrees colder.”
OK, a challenge for y’all. Estimate the May UAH fugure.
I’m saying zero or a bit below. (between 0 and -0.1)