I thought I’d save a few forecast graphics now, to see how they hold up when the snow event is over. First, here’s the one from NWS Boston. I can’t say I much like their color scheme, as it gives a reverse visual impression (IMHO) to what the numbers say.
![StormTotalSnowFcst[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/stormtotalsnowfcst1.png?quality=75)
The probability map color scheme makes more visual sense to me:
![ProbSnow12[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/probsnow121.png?quality=75)
This is from the NWS Facebook Page:
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…MAJOR Blizzard Expected for Boston and New York City…
Total accumulations of 18 to 24 inches are expected for southeast Maine, eastern and southeast Massachusetts (including the Boston metro area), northern Connecticut and all of Rhode Island. Further south across eastern New York to Northern New Jersey, total accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are expected, including the New York City metro and Long Island. Light snow will develop by Friday morning, becoming heavy late in the day into the evening commute. The heaviest snowfall, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor, will fall Friday night into Saturday. North-northeast winds gusting up to 60 mph will lead to blizzard and white-out conditions, creating life-threatening travel conditions. Damage to trees and structures with scattered power outages are anticipated.
In addition, moderate to major coastal flooding is expected from Portland, Maine to the east facing coastline of Massachusetts.
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Take a look at HPC’s Day 1-2 QPF. Although all eyes are on New England with the impending major winter storm, the East Coast is expected to get a good amount of rainfall over the next day or two. To see more information about this, visit our QPF page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-2.shtml
And for more information on the winter storm to affect New England, please visit the local Weather Forecast Office’s websites and our winter weather page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
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Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1200 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 ...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY... MAZ005>007-012>023-NHZ012-RIZ001>008-090100- /O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130209T1800Z/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH... PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND 1200 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING AT TIMES... QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES...AND WINDS GUSTING NEAR 60 MPH. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 FEET. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST OF SNOW ANTICIPATED BY THE EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. * IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS. && $$
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Now here’s some private forecasts from WeatherBell/Dr. Ryan Maue, first a radar projection:
And accumulation from the Canadian RGEM model:
Judging from what you saw reported, you weren’t watching WCVB (Boston/Needham MA) or WTNH (New Haven Conn.) then …
May I suggest you follow on of the links for those two stations above … viewer reports are coming in with one depth report on a ruler shown to be just shy of 36″ in Connecticut …
.
PS
BEAR IN MIND the first number of hours this snow fell as HEAVY WET SNOW w/temperature about 32 deg followed by falling temps into the 14 to 20 deg range and more snow. This made for a VERY thick, hard to remove (or drive through) BASE layer covered by an additional somewhat lighter layer…
.
From: http://wxedge.com/ **Snowfall Totals**
By WXedge Staff on February 9, 2013, 6:13am, Last modified: February 9, 2013, 10:14am
See: http://wxedge.com/articles/20130209snowfall_totals
Just a sample:
NEW HAVEN COUNTY…
HAMDEN 34.0 130 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MADISON 32.0 321 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
WOLCOTT 31.0 247 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MERIDEN 30.0 400 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 29.8 400 AM 2/09 CT DOT
NORTH BRANFORD 27.0 243 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
GUILFORD 27.0 200 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORTH HAVEN 25.7 204 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MILFORD 25.5 400 AM 2/09 CT DOT
Keep in mind that we’ve been in a “snow drought” for some time in New England…almost no snow at all last year, and Boston had a grand total of 9″ before this storm…so the media had lots of pent up snowporting to do :), and the rest of us were thinking “Finally!”
Mentioned this before, but the models are showing a pretty significant low pressure trough sometime around next Sunday. Surprised the media hasn’t jumped on that one yet…
Jim
Hi, Jim, I appreciate a different perspective. Indeed, I was not ” watching WCVB (Boston/Needham MA) or WTNH (New Haven Conn.)”
Would you be so kind as to give me an actual url to look at? I googled WCVB “blizzard” and came up with this site: http://www.wcvb.com/weather/Latest-snowfall-totals-from-Blizzard-2013/-/9850416/18471990/-/5qnx8v/-/index.html
At this site, there are 91 photos posted of the storm. I wish they were dated, but they aren’t. Regardless; Ididn’t see any that show very deep snow. Well, one-#4- with the snow up to near the top of a fire plug, but it was obviously put there by a snow plow.
One photo-number 32-does show snow snow about 8″ deep, on a handrail. This is not a good example, and probably the snow is deeper on a larger surface. It appears deeper on the porch in that photo, but also the snow on the porch is a drift, so also not much use for estimating depth. Prior to photo #32, there’s no snow over 5-6″ deep, other than snow plow berms. (Look at the snow on top of cars, and on roofs, where these are visible)
Reaching photo #44, take look at the snow depth. It’s about 2-4 inches. Was this near the start of the storm, or what? Again, no date, but certainly not newsworthy.
Photo # 48. The snow on the roof is no more than 3″ deep.
Ah; #49 is dated. It shows MAYBE 12″ of snow at “midnight, but it’s hard to estimate, due to lack of a scaled object.
#53 “cars are covered in east boston”. Yep, but only a few inches. At least this looks like snowfall, and not snow plow snow 🙂
MAYBE all these photos were from last night (Friday); however, the site says it’s reporting “Latest snowfall totals from Blizzard 2013. Over 2 feet measured in some areas
UPDATED 1:16 PM EST Feb 09, 2013”
I hate to seem cynical, and I would appreciate your being able to prove me wrong. But i’m just not seeing the true evidence. Sure, there are lots of numbers posted. But where is the photographic, or video evidence?
,
Jim Butler says: They’re always AMAZED when this happens, and look back at you with that “HUH???” look 😉
Mine always said “Damn it, I’m dachshund.”
That nice Mr jimmaine was kind enough to send me two photos of snow on what appear to be his autos. By golly, that’s the deepest snow i’ve seen pictures of, after hours of searching. Jimmaine, you should call the local paper, and have them come out. Or send them the photos you sent me. They might even pay you for them!
I’m hoping Jimmaine will measure the snow, but from the photo I can only make a very wild guess of 16-20″ deep. He does point out that the snow has probably settled somewhat since falling.
I am one of those who is not surprised at the re occurrence of these winter blizzards along the North American east coast. Based on what I see happening in Canada, I expect more of these winter storms this winter and future winters. .The Canadian Arctic Tundra, Mountains and Fiords have started to cool over the last two to three years.
Winters ,Autumns and Spring seasons are getting colder but summers have warmed in the Canadian far north .The very recent trend [2-3 YEARS] of the annual temperatures as a whole in the north is declining .. Winter temperature departures in the Arctic Mtns and Fiords during the 2012 winter dropped from 5.6 /6 C in 2010 to only 1 C during 2012 winter .Canada as a whole has not seen any global warming for 15 years as the National annual temperature departure has been flat for 15 years now.Inland areas like the Prairie areas are cooling like is happening in the inland areas of Asia [like Russia and eastern Europe]
The Arctic Oscillation has again gone essentially negative and I anticipate that it may stay there all the way to April. So I see more cold Arctic air drifting south, meeting the warm moist air from the Gulf. I see the Arctic cooling over the next decade and global temperature anomalies begin to decline for the next several decades. We are just into the preliminaries of the cooler weather that is coming , not every year but the trend will be cooler not warmer . There were many days in Canada during the current winter when the entire nation of Canada from coast to coast had freezing or negative winter temperatures , some regions as low as -40 C without the wind chill factor.These are normal climate variations that cycle over approximately a 60 year period and this is the start of the cooler phase .These events have little to do with global warming as their models have predicted the opposite , namely unprcedented warming .
Jimmaine sent more pictures, involving a tape measure. I believe he was spot on with his estimate of 24-28″. Thanks, Jimmaine; you’re a nice guy!
Glad I live in mild, mild Oregon, though 🙂
Good observations, herkimer. I will add that our weather in Grants Pass Oregon has been getting more cold weather than we’ve had since early 70s, though I don’t have really good data.
I do know that our official weather station reports that our January average temperature was 6º below normal. 6º made a huge difference in the amount of firewood i’ve burned, tell you what!
Climate cooling? Yeah, perhaps. I tend to blame my friend Don Easterbrook for this. 🙂
On his WeatherBELL site Joe D’Aleo has some interesting statistics. This storm is the fifth worst, in records kept since 1934. 24.9 inches. However it is only the primer coat. The snowbanks at the side of the roads need so sag and harden and become like walls, before the super storm comes in a couple weeks.
I suppose you young whippersnappers think I’m kidding? Well let me tell you, back when I was young we had REAL storms. On January 21-22, 1978 Boston had a storm like this one, with huge drifts, and it rates seventh worst ever, at 21.4 inches, but it was just the start. A second blizzard went up to the great lakes, clobbering them but warming Boston and sagging all the snowbanks and then refreezing them to rock, and then on February 6-7 Boston got the second deepest snow on record, 27.1 inches of heavy snow. With all the rock hard snowbanks about, there was no place to put the snow.
So I don’t want to hear any moaning and groaning about this piddly little storm. Fact is, this might just be the beginning. Spring’s still a long way off, fellows.
No whining here. I got to play with my plow 😉 Spent $3K for it in 2009, and every time I get to use it, my cost per storm decreases, and my smile increases. I don’t like shoveling much anymore.
And no warm weather in sight right now. 43 on Tues, 39 on wed…no where near warm enough to melt much of this.
Also, remember that equipment has come a long way since 1978…much better suited for the job these days.
Jim
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=YouTube+BU+Snowball+fight&mid=40488750C83FE46B4DE940488750C83FE46B4DE9&view=detail&FORM=VIRE1
My youngest son, who attends Wentworth, reported 2000 students showed up for a “Snowbrawl,” over at Boston University. There was only one arrest, (actually not bad, for 2000 students,) and that was only due to a student skipping the class where they teach, “Do not throw snowballs at officers with tazers.”
I thought I would post this updated Conn. snowfall list from:
http://wxedge.com/articles/20130209complete_list_193_snowfall_reports
Snowfall Reports
By Quincy Vagell on February 9, 2013, 8:30pm, Last modified: February 9, 2013, 8:34pm
Here is a list of 193 snowfall reports from various sources. Keep in mind that several factors, including blowing and drifting snow, may have resulted in varying amounts in specific towns.
Partial list; see link above for full list:
Location Total (in) Source
Hamden 40 NWS
Newington 28 NWS
East Hampton 38 WXedge
Oxford 28 WXedge
Hamden 38 Twitter
Torrington 28 NWS
Milford 38 NWS
Burlington 27.5 NWS
Milford 38 Twitter
Clinton 27.5 AmericanWX
Wolcott 38 WXedge
Clinton 27.5 NWS
Woodbridge 38 WXedge
Glastonbury 27.5 WXedge
Hamden 37.5 Facebook
Terrryville 27.5 AmericanWX
Clintonville 37 NWS
Enfield 27.2 NWS
Yalesville 37 Twitter
Gilman 27 NWS
Oxford 36.2 NWS
Haddam 27 NWS
Colchester 36 AmericanWX
Hartford 27 NWS
Haddam 36 WXedge
Wethersfield 27 NWS
Hamden 36 Wxedge
Shelton 26.5 NWS
NWS = National Weather Service DOT = Department of Transportation
Now that the power is back on after 41 hours I can report only 18 inches in southern RI. Proximity to coastal waters made the snow wet and heavy so the accumulation was depressed. Knocked down lots of trees, though.