I thought I’d save a few forecast graphics now, to see how they hold up when the snow event is over. First, here’s the one from NWS Boston. I can’t say I much like their color scheme, as it gives a reverse visual impression (IMHO) to what the numbers say.
![StormTotalSnowFcst[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/stormtotalsnowfcst1.png?quality=75)
The probability map color scheme makes more visual sense to me:
![ProbSnow12[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/probsnow121.png?quality=75)
This is from the NWS Facebook Page:
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…MAJOR Blizzard Expected for Boston and New York City…
Total accumulations of 18 to 24 inches are expected for southeast Maine, eastern and southeast Massachusetts (including the Boston metro area), northern Connecticut and all of Rhode Island. Further south across eastern New York to Northern New Jersey, total accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are expected, including the New York City metro and Long Island. Light snow will develop by Friday morning, becoming heavy late in the day into the evening commute. The heaviest snowfall, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor, will fall Friday night into Saturday. North-northeast winds gusting up to 60 mph will lead to blizzard and white-out conditions, creating life-threatening travel conditions. Damage to trees and structures with scattered power outages are anticipated.
In addition, moderate to major coastal flooding is expected from Portland, Maine to the east facing coastline of Massachusetts.
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Take a look at HPC’s Day 1-2 QPF. Although all eyes are on New England with the impending major winter storm, the East Coast is expected to get a good amount of rainfall over the next day or two. To see more information about this, visit our QPF page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-2.shtml
And for more information on the winter storm to affect New England, please visit the local Weather Forecast Office’s websites and our winter weather page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
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Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1200 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 ...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY... MAZ005>007-012>023-NHZ012-RIZ001>008-090100- /O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130209T1800Z/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH... PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND 1200 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING AT TIMES... QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES...AND WINDS GUSTING NEAR 60 MPH. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 FEET. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST OF SNOW ANTICIPATED BY THE EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. * IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS. && $$
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Now here’s some private forecasts from WeatherBell/Dr. Ryan Maue, first a radar projection:
And accumulation from the Canadian RGEM model:
If this storm is as bad as they suggest, weathermen should get a lot of credit. We certainly give them enough grief when they’re wrong.
Joe Bastardi alerted me to the possibility of a storm last weekend, and of a worse-than-normal storm by Tuesday. Since then I’ve pretended I lived back before computers and satellites, and tried to see signs a big storm was coming by observing livestock, wildlife and the skies. There is no way I would have suspected anything unusual was in the cards until around noon today. Then the wind began to suddenly blow steadily, and the pines began a steady sighing quite unlike the usual passing gusts. In the old days, I suppose that is when the old Yankee would scratch their chins and say, “Looks like we’re in for a bit of a blow.” However that wasn’t much help, when they were out on the Grand Banks, fishing. Fishermen were very weatherwise, but whole fleets used to get wiped out by these bombogenesis storms. I think is is pretty impressive that modern weathermen can see them coming, even if they don’t always get the exact track right.
Lucky I live Hawaii.
I remember January 1978 we had loads of snow, but I don’t remember the winds being as bad as they are forecasting for this one. Of course I was a little farther south in Maryland at the time so didn’t have the straight line ocean winds to deal with. We just lit the fire through the snow and then shoveled for two days afterward. Of course all these eco-freak houses they build these days with no fireplace are rather out of luck for these sorts of things now. Piles of blankets and close body heat do wonders in a cold house though
etna maine. expecting 20+ with some 50mph gusts.
local weather guys are pretty good.
snowblower and tractor all set, shed heat is on. keep it at 50 on blizzard nights, helps the hydro transaxle.
130 lbs of wheel weights, 150 lbs of weight buckets leveraged out on back end, deestone superlugs and tire chains.
just another storm in maine.
More blizzid reading: http://talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2013/02/08/blizzard-reading/
“TEXinDFW says:
February 8, 2013 at 1:16 pm
Relax everyone. Typical over-hyping of a purely natural random walk thru the weather extremes. But watch the MSM for their end-of-the-world proselytizing. After all, the warmer it gets, the more that it snows. Or sumthin’ like that.
Big snow event? Probably.
Snowmaggeden? a Snowpocalypse? Nah.”
One of the things that makes this a bit different is the storm is forecasted to “stall” just off the cape. There are sustained winds of 60mph, gusts over that. That is going to pile water up “inside the elbow” into what’s known by locals as Cape Cod Bay. Scitaute Ma is looking at 24-26ft waves, Sandwich Harbor, 18-20′ waves. I’ve lived in New England most of my life, and I can tell you, if those models are anywhere near accurate, there will be a lot of damage along the coast, not dissimilar from Sandy in isolated spots.
Also pretty rare for us to get this amount of snow in this timeframe (<12hrs, for the most part). I've never seen a driving ban like this before, which is a bit ridiculous in the way it was implemented.
A friend of mine is in the Nat Grid storm center. They have a pretty keen interest in what the weather's going to do. His words: "Bye bye coast." Another model was calling for 5' near Nashua, N.H., which has happened twice before, going back to late 1880's.
Quite a spectacle. What no one is mentioning is that the models are calling for another very significant trough a week from now roughly the 16th.
Jim
Not a whole lot here in western New Hampshire. Moderate snow, maybe 4″ accumulation so far. We’ll see what the overnight brings.
Snow in Boston ?? Whatever is this world coming to said Chicken Little!
Seriously, hope this proves as eventless as possible for everyone in that area. But I’m sure the media will ferret out some collapsed carports and patio covers at least. Hope nothing worse. Lost ours in the same manner decades ago and we are about as far from the ocean and moisture as you can get.
SMC says:
February 8, 2013 at 11:23 am
> Huh. I keep forgetting the north east corridor around New York is the center of the world.
I wouldn’t know about that, but New England is the center of the weather world according to Mark Twain. Good read – http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/arts/twain1.htm
I work as a municipal inspector and during the winter I manage subcontractors plows in a municipality across the river from Boston that has a couple of LARGE universities in it. I have 13 trucks on the road right now and the the wind is up to about 50mph. I am told that by 9PM (6:39 now) our time the snow will pick up, possibly to as much as 2 or 3 inches an hour. I’ll believe it when I see it. Just popped back in to the office to eat my lunch.
Will check back in later.
TR
The storm is being called historic before it even arrives.
Here, just northwest of Toronto (Brampton), at least a foot and a half of snow has fallen since 11:00 UTC.
Alberta Clipper. Radar does not do it justice..
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?RadarSite=WKR&sYear=2013&sMonth=2&sDay=8&sHour=11&sMin=00&Duration=12&ImageType=PRECIP_SNOW
In Waterloo Ontario we have already had close to a foot. The neighbours have been out, those who are able, digging everyone out. Main roads are ploughed. Side streets barely passable.
Re-positioned an aircraft from Martha’s Vineyard, MA to Albany this AM, Arrived Albany 1145 AM. Lefty Albany by automobile at Noon-thirty, arrived downtown Boston at 4PM. Road conditions were good to poor, variable throughout.
Just went upstairs to check out the downtown Boston street view – VERY Windy.
Warmists are nothing more than Science-credentialed illusionists manipulating the perceptions of an uninformed public with a limited experience reference, I’m thinking people had become accustomed to a Decade or so of relatively ‘quiet’ weather, and are now getting a taste of normal variability reasserting itself.
Crispin in the boonies 😉 here you go.
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?RadarSite=WSO&sYear=2013&sMonth=2&sDay=8&sHour=11&sMin=00&Duration=12&ImageType=PRECIP_SNOW
Ric Werme says:
February 8, 2013 at 3:28 pm
SMC says: …
I liked the Mark Twain link. Who am I to naysay a master of prose such as he. I’ve just become exhausted by the ridiculous apocalyptic doom/fear mongering of the MSM.
About 5 inches of heavy very wet snow here now. Nearly impossible to move with snowblower. Large ash tree came down in my yard but no damage yet (I will gladly take that 1.5 cords).. Winds about 30 with higher gusts near 45. Power flickering but the local grid is robust so I do not expect any extended outage.
[snip – waaaaaaaaay off topic]
“I’ve just become exhausted by the ridiculous apocalyptic doom/fear mongering of the MSM.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Amen
I have a picture of my VW in April with a yardstick stuck in the snow next to it showing 31 inches of new snow. This picture was taken just north of Lawrence MA. It was taken in the mid 1980’s.
A blizzard in February? What the heck is the big deal?
Do these people suffer from complete memory loss or something?
TomR,Worc,MA says:
February 8, 2013 at 3:40 pm
Wunderground for Cambridge MA shows it’s still warm there, like around 30F, but 26 in Medford, 22 in Lexington, so I think you’re about to be on the colder, snowier side of the coastal front. NECN says that too – “the snow is about to snap back to the coast.” They also report a number of areas are getting 2-3″/h snow. Looks like a long night for you guys.
Live coverage from Boston:
http://livewire.wcvb.com/Event/Blizzard_2013_Winter_storm_hits_Boston_Massachusetts_New_England
I have had squalls all day, about 3″ and its starting here now. about 8 deg out and a very dry snow so far. due to my terrain I drift a lot. was also updated to 24-28 so I may have some nice 5 foot drift pictures tomorrow 🙂
its maine. its snow. its nothing really.
the light stuff clears so easily. sneeze and it moves and since I have a bad head cold I may sneezepower it all away 🙂
Oops – one stuck in the spam filt mods? TIA _Jim
PS: Lots of power-out reports in Massachusetts/Boston area .. nearing 100,000 at the moment.
I live in west suburban Boston, MA. I stepped out onto my back porch at 8:30 this evening to fetch some logs for the fireplace, looked to see a near white-out of intensely blowing/falling snow lit by street lights—-and immediately called my teen-aged kid visiting a pal three blocks up the street to tell him to get home quick. It’s really, seriously, gloriously snowing! A Blizzard! And we’ve even had a little lightning (hyped by the meteorological incontinent Weather Channel as “thunder snow”. Extreme Weather!!).
and oh yes! Up til now this winter, we’ve had one 5 in/12 cm snowfall, and two one-inchers. EACH TIME, our crack Dept. Public Works team dropped tons of rock salt overnight onto our streets and the adjacent grass. Come spring, when our wildly over-paid DPW workers have long spent their winter overtime on Wagyu, Wymyn and Westvleteren, that grass will die, along with shrubs and small trees. But the local “greenies” will utter not a peep to object.
clipe says:
February 8, 2013 at 6:20 pm
[snip – waaaaaaaaay off topic]
Yes. But when discussing ‘climatology’ isn’t that the whole point? It’s off topic.