Image Credit: Climate4You.com
From The Telegraph – By London Mayor Boris Johnson
“The Sun is god!” cried JMW Turner as he died, and plenty of other people have thought there was much in his analysis. The Aztecs agreed, and so did the pharaohs of Egypt. We are an arrogant lot these days, and we tend to underestimate the importance of our governor and creator.
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As a species, we human beings have become so blind with conceit and self-love that we genuinely believe that the fate of the planet is in our hands — when the reality is that everything, or almost everything, depends on the behaviour and caprice of the gigantic thermonuclear fireball around which we revolve.
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I remember snow that used to come and settle for just long enough for a single decent snowball fight before turning to slush; I don’t remember winters like this. Two days ago I was cycling through Trafalgar Square and saw icicles on the traffic lights; and though I am sure plenty of readers will say I am just unobservant, I don’t think I have seen that before. I am all for theories about climate change, and would not for a moment dispute the wisdom or good intentions of the vast majority of scientists.
But I am also an empiricist; and I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming” is obviously to strain the language. I see from the BBC website that there are scientists who say that “global warming” is indeed the cause of the cold and snowy winters we seem to be having. A team of Americans and Chinese experts have postulated that the melting of the Arctic ice means that the whole North Atlantic is being chilled as the floes start to break off — like a Martini refrigerated by ice cubes.
I do not have the expertise to comment on the Martini theory; I merely observe that there are at least some other reputable scientists who say that it is complete tosh, or at least that there is no evidence to support it. We are expecting the snow and cold to go on for several days, and though London transport has coped very well so far, with few delays or cancellations, I can’t help brooding on my own amateur meteorological observations. I wish I knew more about what is going on, and why. It is time to consult once again the learned astrophysicist, Piers Corbyn.
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When the solar acne diminishes, it seems that the Earth gets colder. No one contests that when the planet palpably cooled from 1645 to 1715 — the Maunder minimum, which saw the freezing of the Thames — there was a diminution of solar activity. The same point is made about the so-called Dalton minimum, from 1790 to 1830. And it is the view of Piers Corbyn that we are now seeing exactly the same phenomenon today.
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I am speaking only as a layman who observes that there is plenty of snow in our winters these days, and who wonders whether it might be time for government to start taking seriously the possibility — however remote — that Corbyn is right. If he is, that will have big implications for agriculture, tourism, transport, aviation policy and the economy as a whole. Of course it still seems a bit nuts to talk of the encroachment of a mini ice age.
But it doesn’t seem as nuts as it did five years ago. I look at the snowy waste outside, and I have an open mind.
Not saying anything about the accuracy of the content of the article, but it is certainly interesting that it was written by London Mayor and eventual Prime Minister hopeful Boris Johnson. The Guardian certainly isn’t amused.
The Lord Mayor does not always impress one as particularly astute.
Jan P Perlwitz says: January 22, 2013 at 8:44 am
Yeah, and it’s -7 deg C in New York City, today. It’s clearly evidence that the next ice age must be starting.
Fooled by noise.
The crowd here is likely to still announce “global cooling” as just being around the corner, even when the global surface temperature anomaly caused by the continuing increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases has increased another 0.5 K compared to today
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Does not compute. What is your assertion?
Manfred says:
January 21, 2013 at 2:25 pm
Data is from here:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt
“…“Present” appears to be 1950, so latest data point should be around 1856. Greenland has warmed since then by about 2 degrees…”
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Not to quibble with your data, I would point out that you are citing ice core proxy data not thermometer data. Working with your numbers I see temperatures ranging from -28 to -58 deg C. Add 2 degrees to -28 = -26 deg C. This is supposed to cause melting? Seriously???
Where l live our January temperatures are ranging between lows of -18 C and highs of -8 C. I can assure you that at -8 C the snow is still cold enough to squeak when you walk on it. Sorry, no melting
to be seen.
vukcevic says:
January 22, 2013 at 6:54 am
justthefactswuwt says:
January 22, 2013 at 4:50 am
………………..
The NOAA animation at 10 hPa may be misleading, since at that latitude shows as if the SSW is triggered and rising from the Middle East., which I think may not be.
If you go to a much lower altitude at 50 hPa
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.gif
than you may notice that the SSW is actually connected with a prolonged link to the Kamchatka peninsula, where two or three volcanoes are currently active.
I have some more details here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NH.htm
If Vukcevic is correct in attributing SSW events in the northern polar vortex to vulcanism, then it might be possible to look at the historic volcanic activity record, together with the onset of SSW’s and see how good the correlations are…
Were these dreadful winters during the Maunder minimum etc solar based, or could they have been extended SSW type events due to collapses in the polar vortex due to vulcanism?
Well that second graph of the first slide, showing “Atmospheric CO2” from the EPICA dome C ice cores, is the only graph I’ve ever seen of recent (last 11,000 years) data that shows “Atmospheric CO2” ever going down.
The latest ML data, aside from the 6 ppm annual cyclic perturbation is monotonically upwards.
Well actually, that 11,000 years of data, strictly speaking is the EPICA Dome C ice cores CO2 ; NOT the atmospheric CO2 over those 11,000 years. And in the Antarctic, there isn’t any 6 ppm annual cyclic perturbation; maybe about 1 ppm maybe, while in the Arctic, it is more like a 18-20 ppm annual cyclic perturbation.
Well whoopee, I do believe the range of that 11,000 year ice core CO2 data, is also about 18-20 ppm.
So where the heck is dome C ? Nah ! they wouldn’t give us Arctic Temperatures, and Antarctic CO2 would they ?
Jan P Perlwitz says:
January 22, 2013 at 8:44 am
Fooled by noise.
The crowd here is likely to still announce “global cooling” as just being around the corner, even when the global surface temperature anomaly caused by the continuing increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases has increased another 0.5 K compared to today.
Are you talking about a real increase or an adjustment as just happened over the last few days when the highest monthly anomaly on GISS, namely January 2007, was raised from 0.89 to 0.93. Do you have a good explanation for that?
Should “Fooled by noise” be “Fooled by adjustments”?
Jan P Perlwitz says:
January 22, 2013 at 8:44 am
…..
Dr. Perlwitz
Some 6 months ago I presented you with this real 350 year long temperature record
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MidSummer-MidWinter.htm
You failed to give an explanation, have you found the solution as yet?
When you can credibly explain the past, then we will take a note of your comments about future.
Jan P Perlwitz says:
January 22, 2013 at 8:44 am
…..
Dr. Perlwitz
Some 6 months ago I presented you with this real 350 year long temperature record
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MidSummer-MidWinter.htm
You failed to give an explanation, have you found solution as yet?
When you can credibly explain the past, then we will take a note of your comments about future.
Theo Goodwin says: January 22, 2013 at 8:42 am
University of Alabama – Huntsville (UAH) – Dr. Roy Spencer – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
If this post is an answer then what is the question? My question is serious and not an attempt at snark.
I think the question could be inferred as why is the UK in a cold snap at the moment. Given that global temps are a couple tenths of a degrees celcius above the 30 year average at the moment,
UAH Lower Atmosphere Temperature Anomalies – 1979 to Present
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
RSS Temperature Lower Troposphere (TLT) – Brightness Temperature Anomaly – 1979 to Present
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
it would seem unlikely that the UK cold snap is a result of global anything.
Jan P Perlwitz says: January 22, 2013 at 8:44 am
Yeah, and it’s -7 deg C in New York City, today. It’s clearly evidence that the next ice age must be starting.
Fooled by noise.
Funny, I am sure you will be the first in line to comment the next time the Guardian erroneously attributes a local heat wave to Global Warming…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2013/jan/08/australia-bush-fires-heatwave-temperature-scale
In fact a few months ago I had to point out to Bill McKibben;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/11/30/another-inconvenient-truth-2012-us-tornado-count-well-below-normal/#comment-1161366
that one of his articles seemed “to be based on many anecdotes from small geographic regions, e.g.”:
Seems like noise fools lots of people…
The crowd here is likely to still announce “global cooling” as just being around the corner, even when the global surface temperature anomaly caused by the continuing increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases has increased another 0.5 K compared to today.
I will announce whatever the facts are, as I have no vested interest in either side of this debate. What about you?…
The linear trend of the mean UK winter temperatures has been declining since 1989.. The 2012 mean winter temperature was 4.58C .The winters of 2009,2010,2011 were well below the long term average of about 4.59C. The hand writing has been there for 20 years that the winter temperatures were trending down.So it should not be a surprise if the snow now comes more often and it is colder more often. The cycle is pointing to cooler weather and various weather factors that caused the cooling before are again coming into prominence.
justthefactswuwt says:
January 22, 2013 at 4:32 pm
Thank you for answering my question. You are very kind.
Actually, I was thrown off kilter by the animation of the Arctic. I take it that you or someone is saying that the phenomenon in the Arctic explains the cold in Britain and the phenomenon is not related to global warming. If I have it roughly correct then you do not need to respond.
The figure at the top of this post is noteworthy in its own right. It gives the [snip . . site rules . . mod] some work to do.
The 4 recent highlighted warm spikes – the last being the current one – are interesting. Its almost as if they are “interglacials within an interglacial”. When you see a structure inside a structure, both similar in form – the word “fractal” should spring to mind. Nonequilibrium chaotic pattern formation leaves fractal pattern as a signature. Think fern leaves – a small part looking the same as the whole.
The Holocene as a whole has a form suggesting that it is almost over.
Curious that CO2 has moved opposite to temperature – but lets leave it to our [snip . . site rules . . mod] friends to explain that one.
The models clearly state those icicles *do not* actually exist!
Is there a correlation, perhaps a causality? I am cycling every day, and it is getting colder.
I lived in London during the WWII, when coal was rationed, and we burned wood. We froze, no central heating then. 1947 was one of the coldest on record, people blamed the atom bomb. I disappeared from 1960 to 1963 to the eastern Mediterranean and came back to London for another bad winter. The Thames froze near Windsor too. I moved to Lincolnshire, and never got out of my sheepskin coat all summer! Grapes were not grown but in large greenhouses like citrus fruit. Walking to school 1 and half miles one way, I’d arrived home in winter with numbed feet and hands, white. Snow was a regular event out of London, but the city was often not so afflicted but it was known but it did settle for more than a few days. The UHI affect of course. But smog, of course killed thousands. I remember leaving London for Liverpool in 1944 because of the VI & V2 bombing, and one Christmas we woke up on Christmas Eve to deep snow, it was delightful. Snow can be a problem, and I recall how Scotland suffered with deep snow drifts and people being cut off for days, livestock being fed from air drops etc., They should welcome the short warm period, because we are an ice planet and may experience more cold periods to come. We’ll adapt. Or we will perish. Oh to English posters who are of the age, remember our school holidays started in July and ended at the beginning of September. The weather was lousy, raining etc., and after we came back to Term 1 the weather improved. And I remember a Welsh village got washed away by flood waters, and that dreadful slag heap collapsing on a school after heavy rain. Best of luck Boris.