Image Credit: Climate4You.com
From The Telegraph – By London Mayor Boris Johnson
“The Sun is god!” cried JMW Turner as he died, and plenty of other people have thought there was much in his analysis. The Aztecs agreed, and so did the pharaohs of Egypt. We are an arrogant lot these days, and we tend to underestimate the importance of our governor and creator.
…
As a species, we human beings have become so blind with conceit and self-love that we genuinely believe that the fate of the planet is in our hands — when the reality is that everything, or almost everything, depends on the behaviour and caprice of the gigantic thermonuclear fireball around which we revolve.
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I remember snow that used to come and settle for just long enough for a single decent snowball fight before turning to slush; I don’t remember winters like this. Two days ago I was cycling through Trafalgar Square and saw icicles on the traffic lights; and though I am sure plenty of readers will say I am just unobservant, I don’t think I have seen that before. I am all for theories about climate change, and would not for a moment dispute the wisdom or good intentions of the vast majority of scientists.
But I am also an empiricist; and I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming” is obviously to strain the language. I see from the BBC website that there are scientists who say that “global warming” is indeed the cause of the cold and snowy winters we seem to be having. A team of Americans and Chinese experts have postulated that the melting of the Arctic ice means that the whole North Atlantic is being chilled as the floes start to break off — like a Martini refrigerated by ice cubes.
I do not have the expertise to comment on the Martini theory; I merely observe that there are at least some other reputable scientists who say that it is complete tosh, or at least that there is no evidence to support it. We are expecting the snow and cold to go on for several days, and though London transport has coped very well so far, with few delays or cancellations, I can’t help brooding on my own amateur meteorological observations. I wish I knew more about what is going on, and why. It is time to consult once again the learned astrophysicist, Piers Corbyn.
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When the solar acne diminishes, it seems that the Earth gets colder. No one contests that when the planet palpably cooled from 1645 to 1715 — the Maunder minimum, which saw the freezing of the Thames — there was a diminution of solar activity. The same point is made about the so-called Dalton minimum, from 1790 to 1830. And it is the view of Piers Corbyn that we are now seeing exactly the same phenomenon today.
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I am speaking only as a layman who observes that there is plenty of snow in our winters these days, and who wonders whether it might be time for government to start taking seriously the possibility — however remote — that Corbyn is right. If he is, that will have big implications for agriculture, tourism, transport, aviation policy and the economy as a whole. Of course it still seems a bit nuts to talk of the encroachment of a mini ice age.
But it doesn’t seem as nuts as it did five years ago. I look at the snowy waste outside, and I have an open mind.
Not saying anything about the accuracy of the content of the article, but it is certainly interesting that it was written by London Mayor and eventual Prime Minister hopeful Boris Johnson. The Guardian certainly isn’t amused.
Liberal skeptic says: January 21, 2013 at 11:59 am
I’ve never seen that gisp2 graph before, how reputable is it and why does no one talk about the very obvious cooling trend for the last few thousand years? There can be no argument about the statistical significance of that time period ….
Background information on the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) can be found here;
http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/
background on Climate4You.com can be found here
http://climate4you.com/
and it’s proprietor Ole Humlum can be found here:
http://climate4you.com/Text/BIBLIOGRAPHY%20OLE%20HUMLUM.pdf
I have seen no basis to question the GISP2 data, but that is not to say there isn’t one. In terms of Climate4You.com, we’ve used Ole’s charts on WUWT’s reference pages;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/
for a few years and no one has ever presented a credible challenge to their accuracy, but again that is not to say there isn’t one. I had planned to included the GISP2 chart on the forthcoming WUWT Paleoclimate Reference Page, thus if anyone can present evidence challenging its accuracy, please do so.
Read our Boris’s effluvia this morning on the train.
As every Monday.
interesting.
Classically educated, I doubt he can spell dysprosium [an answer in today’s Telegraph X-word]; but Boris is certainly no fool.
The tide seems to be turning.
Whether the fat-faced one [and the Cameroons] relinquish a seat – and the premiership – before the election may determine the 2015 General Election.
Auto.
According to NASA, the whole last decade is now warmer by at least .02C than what they reported last month.
Boris obviously didn’t believe the Beeb!
12 Jan: BBC Weather: John Hammond: Sudden stratospheric warming responsible for UK’s icy blast
For a few weeks now, forecasters have been monitoring an abrupt jump in temperatures way up in the stratosphere – not a cooling, but actually a sudden warming.
Such sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) have led to notable cold spells in recent years…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20998895
Pamela Gray says:
Excellent point. I don’t believe they woud call it “Greenland” were it discovered today. Not so many sheep being raised there as a thousand or so years ago. Orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession all have something to say though none is extreme at present. But then again plenty of other potential causal variables in the mix, including solar variations. I’m betting upon a colder near term future, unfortunately for us in the northern climes. Warmer would, indeed, be better.
As the growing belt moves south, the Russians (& Chinese?)will be rattling their swords. The US should be able to trade food for oil, if we are allowed by our omnicient leaders to use it. Most Canadian crops grow within 300 miles of the US border. Depending upon the resultant effect upon precipitation patterns, other southern locations may become the bigger food producers, of course given geopolitical stability which is not apparent today in some of these places. It is all predestined to occur. It’s all really only a matter of when.
For those in Europe who want to see climate change in action………………just look out your window. PS, remember when the lack of snow was blamed on global warming? Now this repeated event is also blamed on global warming. There is nothing co2 can’t do.
“Flights scrapped as snow blankets Europe“
Climate science simplistically says the Earth is uniformly illuminated by the Solar radiation over the section of the globe in daytime – which is a disk area having the Earth’s radius.
Climate science then says the Earth radiates to space over the whole area of its sphere which is four times the area of a disk.
If energy in equals energy out the only logical interpretation of these propositions is that the power of the Solar insolation is four times the power of the Earth’s radiation to space – their own equations show this.
Climate science then pulls a stunt and calculates the “effective” temperature of the Earth
Solar radiation(1 – albedo) = sigma T^4 x 4 – this is the equation taught at many Universities –
and comes up with the result of 255 K using this equation.
Then Kiehl & Trenberth make the following illogical statement in their energy budget paper:
“Here we assume a “solar constant” of 1367 W /m2 (Hartmann 1994), and because the incoming solar radiation is one-quarter of this, that is, 342 W /m2, a planetary albedo of 31% is implied.”
If the incoming solar radiation is one quarter of the “solar constant” how can anyone possibly re-create the original proposition about radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere ?
If energy in = energy out and both of these radiative fluxes have an associated temperature and these temperatures have to be related by the fourth root of the proportion of area of sphere to area of disk which is 1.41 – the fourth root of 4.
255 K x 1.41 is almost 360 K.
Plug 360 K into the Stefan-Boltzmann equation and the associated radiative flux is about 952 W/sq metre.
1367 W/sq metre x (1 – albedo) results in about 943 W/sq metre using 0.31 as albedo or 957 W/sq metre using 0.3 as albedo.
Averaging the solar insolation simply fails this simple mathematical analysis and is therefore meaningless for any purpose other than calculating the 255 K result. It has no further meaning.
If it did applying the reverse analysis must lead to the original proposition – mathematics is reliable like that – any correct procedure is reversible.
If “because the incoming solar radiation is one-quarter of this, that is, 342 W /m2” had any REAL meaning in the physics of climate science then DIVIDING the temperature associated with this radiative flux – 278 K – by 1.41 ( the fourth root of 4) ( ~197 K) should yield 255 K – obviously it doesn’t.
What I assert truly represent REAL solar insolation – approximately 952 W /sq m and 360 K passes the reverse analysis – 360 divided by 1.41 is indeed 255 K.
If even a simple “back of the envelope” analysis cannot reproduce their original assertion through a simple reverse analysis ( I can using the correct figures) using their own figures then how can the immensely complicated computer models produce anything but random gibberish ?
I know the 342 is an “average” uniform insolation but if it has any REAL mathematical meaning it must comply with reverse analysis.
As it doesn’t one must logically conclude the “average” method produces ONLY ONE meaningful result – the effective 255 K Earth radiating temperature.
It cannot be used to assert anything else !
After all 255 K is the temperature associated with THE EARTH’S RADIATION and NOT the SOLAR INSOLATION adjusted for albedo.
Quartering the solar constant is simply incorrect ! All the science from this point on is bogus.
BillD says: January 21, 2013 at 12:10 pm
This post shows two graphs. Were they posted from the Mayor’s speech?
No, I added the graph to help readers to see the Little Ice Age in perspective.
The source of the graphs is something called “Climate4your.com. If I go to that web site will I find a peer-reviewed source, or are the graphs just something made up by the people who run the web site?
Climate4You.com is just a data aggregator, the data in this case comes from;
http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/
and yes it has been through peer review numerous times:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589485710794
http://www.cheric.org/research/tech/periodicals/view.php?seq=250261
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v372/n6507/abs/372663a0.html
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/96GL03700/abstract
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=GISP2&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C31&as_sdtp=
Can you present any evidence to challenge the accuracy of the GISP2 data or Climate4You.com’s graphing of it?
MikeB says:
“Of course, it is always easy to give the impression of ‘consensus’ when all opposing views are deleted.”
Propaganda and censorship are mainstays of the left. Their philosophy will not withstand the light of truth. The old USSR and the eastern block European countries with their failed socioeconomic histories are prime examples. A lie told over and over in the educational system and in the media becomes the truth for the vast majority of the people. It is only when the promises of free stuff at the expense of the productive few in the system run out that folks are ready to make real change.
Boris better get used to this weather. There is more coming for the next several decades like UK had in the period 1962-1987 and 1880- 1910 as the planet enters again a cooler phase for the next 20-30 years possibly . Some of us have been predicting this weather for Europe since 2009. When the sun cycle and the ocean SST cycle are both in sync and if both are declining and the Enso signal is in Neutral , the Arctic Oscillation is often negative , thus allowing colder Arctic upper atmosphere air to come south. AO is predicted to remain negative at least to early February so the near term cold may continue.
Joe, Maggie did NOT say screw thy neighbour. Yes, she did say, “there is no such thing as society” but nobody ever puts that quote into context. Here is the full quote, “If children have a problem, it is society that is at fault. There is no such thing as society. There is living tapestry of men and women and people, and the beauty of that tapestry and the quality of our lives will depend upon how much each of us is prepared to take responsibility for ourselves and each of us prepared to turn round and help by our own efforts those who are unfortunate.”
In short, another version of the golden rule.
They disable sceptical accounts. You can open an account and as soon as your start regular posting your account is disabled. It has happened to me over 8 times, in the end I just gave up and decided that if they want to be an echo chamber then let them. They allow some sceptical comments through to hide from accusations. Don’t worry, their circulation is going down the toilet.
<i.Curt says:
January 21, 2013 at 12:24 pm
“The Guardian certainly isn’t amused.
Q: How many leftists does it take to change a light bulb?
A: That’s not funny!
Took me a couple of beats to get it, but that was funny!
Curt says:
January 21, 2013 at 12:24 pm
“The Guardian certainly isn’t amused.
Q: How many leftists does it take to change a light bulb?
A: That’s not funny!
Took me a couple of beats to get it, but that was funny!
from the Guardian…”He wafts away the scientists who say snowy winters are consistent with global warming (an uncontroversial idea based on the premise that a warming world leads to more moisture in the atmosphere)”.
Funny, I thought that a warming world leads to warmer temperatures, making rain more likely than snow, despite any increased moisture content. My understanding from the UK is that it isn’t just more snow, it’s more cold. Am I wrong?
It may not be an ice age that is coming but the predictions for the next 5 years show a variety of forecasts. Here is a
summary of various forecasts of global temperature anomaly [hadcrut3] at the end of 2017 [after next 5 years]
The data has been calculated or eyeballed from data or graphs available on the internet
CO2 BASED
JAMES HANSON 1.4 C for A,
1.2 C for B
0.6 C for C
IPCC 0 .750 C [A2, A1B, B1]
CLIVE BEST 0. 55 to 0 .7 C ADJUSTED BASED ON AIB and B1 SCENARIOS]
MET OFFICE 0.430 C [0.28 C to 0.59 C] WAS 0.76 C previously
NON CO2 BASED
N.SCAFETTA 0.450 C HARMONIC MODEL [RANGE 0.3 to 0.55 C]
P. MICHAELS 0.4 to o.5 C ADJUSTED TREND OF IPCC
TALLBLOKE 0.4 to 0.5 C BASED ON SEA SURFACE TEMP
G.ORSSENGO 0.226 C STATISTICAL MODEL BASEDON GMTA HADCRUT 3 [0.1C to 0.55C lower and upper limit]
D. EASTERBROOK -0.1C BASED ON 1790-1820 PAST TREND
0.0 C BASED ON 1880-1915 PAST TREND
0.4 C BASED ON 1945-1977 PAST TREND
S-ICHI AKASOFU < 0.5 C [BASED ON PAST TEMPERATURE PATTERN
LAST 12 MONTH TREND OF HADCRUT3 EXTENDED TO THE END OF 2017 0.350 C
OBSERVED HADCRUT 3GL TO THE END OF NOVEMBER 2012 0.417 C
It would appear that the trend of the latest forecasts is a significant lowering of the IPCC/ HANSON alarmists predictions.
@Oldseadog
>…I wish we could get the tab, or whatever it is called,
> back, to send things on by e-mail, and that used to
> appear at the bottom of every post …
I think it’s called a “link”, not “tab”. And it’s still there: just right-click on the date-time string under the name and then select “Copy Shortcut”. The hyperlink to that post can then be pasted into your reply or other documents.
For example, here’s the link that I copied from your post:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/21/its-snowing-and-it-really-feels-like-the-start-of-a-mini-ice-age-london-mayor-boris-johnson/#comment-1205104
Anything that upsets the loss-making Guardian is always good for a laugh. The comments are quite hilarious in their utter ignorance. Still, you don’t read the Guardian to learn anything, just to get a job at the BBC and Met Office. It is embarrassing to see what are supposed to be top scientists knowing so little – or are they just playing along to keep the cash rolling in as they are all funded from the Global Warming scam.
It happened before and it will happen again.
It doesn’t appear to be anything to do with the AGW.
Here is my take on the current cold spell in the Northern Hemisphere:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NH.htm
RE: It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age – London Mayor Boris Johnson
Wait, remember this, “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past …”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
The reason Boris Johnson is interesting is also the reason why he will never be the Prime Minister in the UK – he does not toe the party line. He was a ‘rebel’ when he was an MP and was pretty much forced to run for Mayor of London as a way to remove him from the back benches where he was too likely to say something not approved by the party leaders.
As to intelligence, he is probably no worse or better than most MPs – successful politicians only dumb in respect to saying nothing which has not been approved by their party.
justthefactswuwt says:
January 21, 2013 at 1:10 pm
BillD says: January 21, 2013 at 12:10 pm
——————————————————————-
Data is from here:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt
“Present” appears to be 1950, so latest data point should be around 1856.
Greenland has warmed since then by about 2 degrees, though 1 degree or so due to AMO effect which should be subtracted, as we are now on the top of the AMO cycle and ice core resolution does not resolve such short term peaks. UHI correction also not considered.
I love Boris, top chap! As he says he is an empiricist, see whats happening around you rather than look at computer models that tell you what should be happening.
The grauinad doesn’t just remove comments it disagrees with, it removes whole commentators too – with no reason given.
I know – I am proud to be one of the Disappeared!
For our American friends and other non-Londoners, here is an introduction to our glorious Lord Mayor and the unlikely future PM, Boris Johnson
(going back few years now)