Where’s that “global warming” when you really want it? 😉
This map from NOAA’s National Snow Analyses page shows the snow depth data:
![nsm_depth_2012122605_National[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/nsm_depth_2012122605_national1.jpg?quality=83)
Source: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
Automated Model Discussion:
December 26, 2012
| Area Covered By Snow: | 61.4% |
| Area Covered Last Month: | 18.6% |
| Snow Depth | |
|---|---|
| Average: | 5.1 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 1351.5 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 10.6 in |
| Snow Water Equivalent | |
| Average: | 0.9 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 650.5 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 2.4 in |
This is a perfect time to recall climate researcher Dr. David Viner’s famous missive from back in the year 2000:
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
“warmest year ever”
Would that be the warmest year ever after Hansen and NASA get through making “adjustments” to make that happen? Back in the 70s I was taught in college that tampering with the data was scientific fraud. Now it seems to be a career enhancer.
Heinlein said it best: Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.
You’ll all remember this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/mar/14/met-office-arctic-sea-ice-loss-winter
“Met Office: Arctic sea-ice loss linked to colder, drier UK winters”
When we actually get…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/gallery/2012/dec/23/floods-christmas-disruption-pictures
“Floods cause pre-Christmas disruption
Dozens of communities have been affected by floods, and a week of further rain threatens more holiday misery.”
Shane Harris says:
December 26, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Bad news, my friend. You indeed took the bait, and we all sat here and watched you take it.
Now, you can argue that you didn’t want to take the bait. You can argue that Anthony is a terrible, awful man for putting out the bait. You can argue that the bait was so irresistible that you had no choice. You can argue a whole host of things, you can spin it however you want.
But you can’t argue that you “didn’t take any bait”, amigo, that ship has already sailed, and we all sat here and watched it leave.
Finally, I’m still waiting for your citation for your unsupported claim about the temperature of the year 2012.
w.
PS—You start by taking the bait, then you have the gall to claim you didn’t take the bait, and now you’re going to diss the audience here, saying that they lack “the critical facilities necessary for breathing”?
Really? That’s your plan for getting people to believe you? Hella-good tactics there, my friend. Because from where I sit, I can tell you who looks like they are lacking in “critical facilities” …
Did you know the concept of a White Christmas was thought up by Charles Dickens, when the first decade of his life there was a ‘White Christmas’ every year! Or is it an urban myth?
Cold + moisture = snow = Old Physics
Warm + moisture = even more snow = New, Improved Physics
Climate “scientists”, making the rules up as they go along.
Quite a system they’ve got going.
markstoval says:
December 26, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Back in the 70s I was taught in college that tampering with the data was scientific fraud. Now it seems to be a career enhancer.
They don’t tamper with it, they correct it for the errors caused by instrumentation, station moves and an uncooperative Mother Nature, who doesn’t have a PhD in Climatology (so her views don’t count).
We in New Hampshire are going to be experiencing the brunt of this “rare” snow storm (renamed by the Weather Channel as “Viner Events”, in honor of the esteemed Climate Scientist(tm) who predicted in the early 2000s that snow would become a “rare” event). We are expecting 12 – 18 inches in my area (which are now measured by the Weather Channel in “Viner Units” 1 cm of snow = 1 V.U., so we will be getting 30.5 – 45.7 V.U. of snow). Of course, this has NEVER ever happened in recent years in New Hampshire – nope, we NEVER get any snow any more…
/sarc
To the visiting trolls who are now all confused that snow still exists in our “warming world,” please note:
When Jim Hansen was called on his “Y2K” error, which made 1934 the hottest year in the U.S., he replied (paraphrasing) that the U.S. was less than 2% of the earth’s surface, and so it didn’t matter.
PLEASE, trolls, remember that – according to NASA GISS, what happens climatologically in the U.S. doesn’t matter…
More on the Y2K error here…
just as Curry explained. low arctic sea extent contributes to higher NH snowfall in the winter.
REPLY: Yup, a negative feedback. – Anthony
Other Andy
What looks to be part of the answer has been the jet stream. Twice during December it has pushed up from the south, moved up across the pole and then pushed back down south again.
What this has the effect of doing is pushing up warm air up into the Arctic and then pushing down cold Arctic air across the NH.
lts this that has been part of the reason for the very cold winter weather in Russia and Canada.
Happy Christmas from Wingham Australia. It’s been dry here this spring but we’ve just had 60 mm in the past fortnight so the land responds and the grass grows. BoM forecast a very hot summer and we have had several warm days followed soon by cool southerly changes. It is hot in the West but that’s normal. BoM are desperate for a hot year. They were caught out by Jo Nova and friends and had to rejig the temperature record so now they have to earn respect again. Not likely with the same crew and same philosophy. Every hot day the alarmists are out and about and the corrupt press give them air time and column inches. Cool days and silence. No cyclones near Aus so far although there was a severe one in Fiji. Problems coming for the alarmists I fear and it couldn’t happen to better scam artists.
Happy New Year to all at WUWT. Success in 2013.
Northern Hemisphere snow is purely a local phenomenon. No sign of any snow here. We just had a few “record hot on this day” (according to the BOM) days. Coolish over Xmas, but nice and sunny now. So yes, the Global Warming is keeping Brisbane warm.
Steven Mosher says:
December 26, 2012 at 1:35 pm
“just as Curry explained. low arctic sea extent contributes to higher NH snowfall in the winter.”
So winters must have been dryer (minimal snowfall) back in the 1970s when the arctic ice extent was higher…right?
More about the dry, snow-free seventies here…
(Of course, global cooling was all the rage back then – who knew??).
Over at the Guardian, there is a piece by the arch believer in warming, George Monbiot, which has him visiting hospital after an accident in icy conditions.
Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
Mother Nature’s Response to the Global Warmers.
Steven Mosher says:
December 26, 2012 at 1:35 pm
just as Curry explained. low arctic sea extent contributes to higher NH snowfall in the winter.
REPLY: Yup, a negative feedback. – Anthony
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ooooh, but it is so much more complicated than that.
I grew up on the Canadian prairies, noted for their harsh winters. One of the things that I noticed over the years was that years with a lot of snow, particularly if a significant amount of it arrived early in the season, were coupled with early springs. Winters with little snow often had late springs where winter just seemed to “hand on” much longer than usual.
This always seemed counter intuitive to me until an old farmer explained it. Snow makes an excellent insulator. So lotsa snow = less cooling of the earth beneath the snow. Not much snow = more cooling of the earth. The heat capacity of just the first few feet of dirt is high enough that this makes a substantive difference to how quickly the snow melts in the spring and the earth warms to the point that it no longer suppresses air temps.
So….
Low arctic sea ice = colder arctic oceans = negative feedback
Low arctic sea ice = more snow = negative feedback
more snow = positive feedback
Some day when I’m motivated enough I\d like to see of the snowfall records and arrival of spring (how would you define it? ) actually correlate as well as my memory and that of old farmers.
Bait-breath Harris:
Yes, Yes, confess, you took it hook,line and sinker. Genuine full-ripe stinkbait. That you for that.
@RoHa
“record hot on this day according to the BOM”
After BOM fine-tuned, adjusted,cooked, corrected, homogenized and tweaked the data, ‘records’ are even more meaningless than they were.
meanwhile, guess what HOT CAGW revelations aren’t in the following:
24 Dec: Livescience: Wynne Parry: The Hottest Climate Change Stories of 2012
Global warming was hot news this year, literally…
http://www.livescience.com/25789-hottest-climate-change-2012.html
It was not the only loony prediction David Viner made. Try this one from 2006
Climate change could “dramatically” change the face of British tourism in the next 20 years, with European tourists flocking to the UK to escape unbearably hot continental summers, experts say.
Weather changes may provide revival opportunities for northern seaside towns such as Blackpool and put new strains on roads and development in southern coastal resorts, a study in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism said.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/costa-brava-has-moved-to-blackpool-says-david-viner/
Frank K. says:
December 26, 2012 at 1:33 pm
> We in New Hampshire are going to be experiencing the brunt of this “rare” snow storm (renamed by the Weather Channel as “Viner Events”…).
What snows in New Hampshire stays in New Hampshire. (Until it melts or sublimates.)
I filled the gas tank on the snowblower. Seemed to make more sense than doing it after the storm.
Got some work stuff here to take home, a definite WFH day tomorrow.
Meanwhile, the MSM studiously ignore multiple hundreds killed by brutal cold in eastern Europe http://rt.com/news/cold-moscow-december-russia-757/
hoping against hope for a fraction of a degree record warm margin somewhere in the west.
The 21st, we had Snowmageddon. Over 50 cm.(20″) of the white stuff fell so fast that i had to shovel off the roof! Power went out around 2:30 pm and only came back 36 hours later.
Now, how the heck those Maya knew that it was the end of time (clocks stopped) and that 3 (Mayan) days of darkness (their days start at sundown) would follow is beyond me.
Maybe they had computer models? Nah, at least their predictions came to pass…
Happy holidays everyone! 😉
The CAGW crowd have an agenda based around CO2’s potential to burn up the planet. However that was tested 500 million years ago and failed the test. CO2 was around 5,700ppm which is about 15 times today’e level. If the Alarmists were right we would not be here as the planet would have burned up….but instead it greened up.
So what has gone wrong?
Simple…the more you stack up CO2 the less heat you get. In other words the relationsip is not linear but logarithmic and we have had 75% of all the heat we will get from CO2. A doubling from today’s level will create about 1C+ of heat and a further doubling will yield less than 1/10th of 1C so no problem.
If the leaks from the coming IPCC assessment are true then sensitivity will be stated at around 1.6C which is not dangerous and we would eventually expect it to be rounded down to circa 1.2C. Simple enough to understand….we can do a a colouring book with an explanation for some of the alarmists who have decided to visit us tonight.
Steven Mosher says:
December 26, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Thanks, Steven. You are correct that the data shows that for every million sq. km. of lost arctic sea ice in SON, we get about an extra million km of NH snow in DJF, or a bit less. However, the R^2 is not strong, the SON sea ice only explains about a quarter of the change in DJF NH snow.
So …
• 3/4 of the changes in NH snowfall are NOT due to changes in sea ice.
• The standard deviation of the error in the historical snow estimate using Judith’s method is about 1.12 million sq. km.
• The standard deviation of the snowfall is bigger than the SD of the error, 1.3 million sq. km.
• the relationship is weak (R^2 = 0.28)
As a result, while we can see that there is a part of the snowfall that is related to the ice loss, the error is large and the relationship is poor … and as a result, the idea that somehow winter snowfall isn’t weather doesn’t pass the data test.
w.