New paper in GRL shows that a 60-year oscillation in the global tide gauge sea level record has been discovered

Results suggest that global mean sea level may also be affected, though not yet fully confirmed.

http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl1218/2012GL052885/2012gl052885-op01-tn-350x.jpg

Hot off the heels of an admission by NASA JPL that the satellite derived sea level data is “spurious” due to a lack of a stable reference frame and needs fixing, comes this new paper that suggests we may see a drop in sea level soon.

It is rather at odds with the notion that sea level rise is “accelerating” which is one of the unsupported memes being pushed by warmists and media, now even more so due to the hurricane that wasn’t when it made landfall, Sandy.

I wonder if it came up in discussion today at Dr. Mann’s “breaking news” breakout session?

Key Points

  • The research reveals that there is a 60-year oscillation in the majority of long tide gauge records
  • The signal is consistent in phase and amplitude in many ocean basins
  • This has important implications for quantifying sea level acceleration

Cited by the CU Sea Level Group here.

Is there a 60-year oscillation in global mean sea level?

Don P. Chambers, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida, USA
Mark A. Merrifield, Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
R. Steven Nerem, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Abstract

We examine long tide gauge records in every ocean basin to examine whether a quasi 60-year oscillation observed in global mean sea level (GMSL) reconstructions reflects a true global oscillation, or an artifact associated with a small number of gauges. We find that there is a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th Century, and that it appears in every ocean basin. Averaging of tide gauges over regions shows that the phase and amplitude of the fluctuations are similar in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, and Indian Oceans, while the signal is shifted by 10 years in the western South Pacific. The only sampled region with no apparent 60-year fluctuation is the Central/Eastern North Pacific. The phase of the 60-year oscillation found in the tide gauge records is such that sea level in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and western South Pacific has been increasing since 1985–1990. Although the tide gauge data are still too limited, both in time and space, to determine conclusively that there is a 60-year oscillation in GMSL, the possibility should be considered when attempting to interpret the acceleration in the rate of global and regional mean sea level rise.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L18607, 6 PP., 2012

doi:10.1029/2012GL052885

h/t to Paul Homewood

NOTE: I made a clarification in the title and first sentence not long after initial publishing – Anthony

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Geoff
November 6, 2012 1:42 am

See also the new paper by Dr. John Church (lead author on sea level for IPCC) on cycles (PDO and ENSO) and sea level – http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL053240.shtml

November 6, 2012 1:59 am

Dario from NW Italy says:
November 6, 2012 at 12:39 am
…….
Your old professor was more knowledgable than many hundreds of the current climate scientists.
See my posts on RealClimate blog
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/11/short-term-trends-another-proxy-fight/

November 6, 2012 2:02 am

To the 60-year Scafetta cycle: As comment #2 above shows, external “(greenhouse gases,
solar variations, volcanic aerosols)” forcings do not produce a 60 year cycle….Then, along
comes some internist, setting up an “internal model” with “internal input”, which, of course,
was made to vary, indeed ….and as result they conclude:
“We ‘suggest’ (!) that the cycle seems to be purely of 60 internal years”……Cleverly
achieved is the excluding of the trisynodic Jup/Sat Scafetta cycle., being talked off the table
by “internal” congestion…
…….you may also go into the cycle-phobic IPCC AR4 literature and there is no 60 year
climate driver mentioned or quantified, neither internal nor external……….JS….

November 6, 2012 2:11 am

phlogiston says:
November 6, 2012 at 1:17 am
If so, this is an argument for periodic forcing, not for an unforced oscillator.
Absolutely, forced periodically:
Earth has a magnetic ‘ripple’ originating in the core and the sun has its cycles.
When two are in phase the oceans absorb more energy, when two are out of phase the oceans cool.

http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EarthNV.htm

November 6, 2012 3:13 am

Sea level modulation agrees with the PDO cycle, who would have thought?
Lots of valid comments re internal or external drivers, but no mention of the Aleutian Low. Sea level fluctuation could easily be linked to the PDO which has major influence over the ENSO cycle (Tisdale will no doubt disagree). Sustained periods of La Nina and the associated trade winds will have impact on sea levels of particular basins. The Aleutian Low also correlates with the PDO and is an atmospheric cycle, which is more likely to be influenced by solar/UV fluctuations. The 60 year cycle in the Aurora record is also of interest.
The jury is just forming, but all informants need to be questioned.

November 6, 2012 3:27 am

On those graphs, it looks more like 66 than 60. Since we already know the 66-year cycle in weather events, this isn’t surprising. (Multiple of 11 for obvious reasons.)

AJ
November 6, 2012 3:47 am

Mike Jonas says:
“I want to do a Fourier Transform looking for signs of cycles”
You could always try the spectrum function in R.

LazyTeenager
November 6, 2012 3:50 am

It’s not possible to claim a 60 year cycle with just 100 years if data. An up-down-up is not a cycle.
REPLY: Significant tide gauge data goes back to 1880, and if you aren’t too lazy to look that up and can do math, that’s 132 years of data, or just over two 60 year cycles. Thus, your comment is pointless. – Anthony

tallbloke
November 6, 2012 4:06 am

Mike Jonas says:
November 5, 2012 at 3:02 pm
While we’re on the subject of “cycles” – I have some time-related data on which I want to do a Fourier Transform looking for signs of cycles. I can’t find any (free) software to run on my Windows XP Home Edition PC. Please can someone point me at suitable software.

http://cyclesresearchinstitute.wordpress.com/cats-software/

tallbloke
November 6, 2012 4:11 am

LazyTeenager says:
November 6, 2012 at 3:50 am
It’s not possible to claim a 60 year cycle with just 100 years if data. An up-down-up is not a cycle.
REPLY: Significant tide gauge data goes back to 1880, and if you aren’t too lazy to look that up and can do math, that’s 132 years of data, or just over two 60 year cycles. Thus, your comment is pointless. – Anthony

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/sst-model1.png
The AMO combined with solar cumulative ocean heat content and a smattering of co2 pretty much covers it. You can omit the co2 if you bump up the solar contribution to the limit of Nir Shaviv’s estimate of the terrestrial amplification he measured from tide gauges.
htto://sciencebits.com/calorimeter

tallbloke
November 6, 2012 4:12 am

LazyTeenager says:
November 6, 2012 at 3:50 am
It’s not possible to claim a 60 year cycle with just 100 years if data. An up-down-up is not a cycle.
REPLY: Significant tide gauge data goes back to 1880, and if you aren’t too lazy to look that up and can do math, that’s 132 years of data, or just over two 60 year cycles. Thus, your comment is pointless. – Anthony
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/sst-model1.png
The AMO combined with solar cumulative ocean heat content and a smattering of co2 pretty much covers it. You can omit the co2 if you bump up the solar contribution to the limit of Nir Shaviv’s estimate of the terrestrial amplification he measured from tide gauges.
http://sciencebits.com/calorimeter

tallbloke
November 6, 2012 4:13 am

LazyTeenager says:
November 6, 2012 at 3:50 am
It’s not possible to claim a 60 year cycle with just 100 years if data. An up-down-up is not a cycle.
REPLY: Significant tide gauge data goes back to 1880, and if you aren’t too lazy to look that up and can do math, that’s 132 years of data, or just over two 60 year cycles. Thus, your comment is pointless. – Anthony
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/sst-model1.png
The AMO combined with solar cumulative ocean heat content and a smattering of co2 pretty much covers it. You can omit the co2 if you bump up the solar contribution to the limit of Nir Shaviv’s estimate of the terrestrial amplification he measured from tide gauges.

tallbloke
November 6, 2012 4:14 am

LazyTeenager says:
November 6, 2012 at 3:50 am
It’s not possible to claim a 60 year cycle with just 100 years if data. An up-down-up is not a cycle.
REPLY: Significant tide gauge data goes back to 1880, and if you aren’t too lazy to look that up and can do math, that’s 132 years of data, or just over two 60 year cycles. Thus, your comment is pointless. – Anthony
The AMO combined with solar cumulative ocean heat content and a smattering of co2 pretty much covers it. You can omit the co2 if you bump up the solar contribution to the limit of Nir Shaviv’s estimate of the terrestrial amplification he measured from tide gauges.
http://sciencebits.com/calorimeter

November 6, 2012 4:33 am

Geoff Sharp says:
November 6, 2012 at 3:13 am
………..but no mention of the Aleutian Low.
Well spotted. Icelandic Low, Aleutian Low and the ENSO are three fundamental atmospheric pressure systems which may be indirectly responding to the solar input. I have somewhat different idea guided by data the from geology observations in order of the above
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-NAP.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PDO.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/ENSO.htm
Why geology?
Earth crust (with atmosphere and oceans) is coupled to asymmetric solid core via huge mass of the liquid core. There is a differential rotation between all three, introducing ripple in the earth’s magnetic field, which has, let’s say, kind of ‘correspondence’ with solar magnetic cycles and its long term activity:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/TMC.htm
Now, here are two alternatives:
Either the solar magnetic field has an input into the earth’s behavior, or both have same driving force.
Both alternatives are anathema to our old fervent critic Dr. Svalgaard, but I give slight preference to the second, as the sun’s magnetic field has played fair, at least up to now.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
(I do not expect that rgbatduke to be more benevolent in his critique)
All the best
Vuk.

November 6, 2012 5:09 am

[i]„We find that there is a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th Century, and that it appears in every ocean basin.” [/i]
Kindergarten science.
It can be shown that tide spectra (San Francisco bay) correlates positive with global temperature. This is a very simple coherence because of the temperature/volume property of water > 4° C.
Science is to show coherence of real functions in nature. Nonsense cannot be shown.
Real superimposed solar tide functions are in coherence with the real reconstructed global temperature function (except volcano effects). Depending on the number and frequency range of solar tide functions of synodic couples it has been shown here that i.) not a stupid sine wave frequency of ~ 1/60 years without any geometry function on Earth or in the solar system has any scientific meaning, but ii.) superimposed solar tide functions of real object couples have.
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/hadcrut3_vs_solar_tides.gif
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/svalbard_vs_ghi6.gif
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/uah_remss_9_2012r.gif
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/jux1.gif
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/sea_level_vs_solar_tide.gif
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/sea_level_vs_me_er_ju.gif
Solar tide functions are not of sinusoidal function, if there is an elliptic trace involved. This can be shown for the major tide oscillator for millennia and not only for the 20th Century.
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images ghi_vs_comnispa_5k.jpg
I wonder that each peer reviewed Kindergarten science paper is in discussion because it is peer reviewed, followed by 500 + personal statements.
V.

November 6, 2012 5:23 am

Leif Svalgaard says:
November 5, 2012 at 8:45 pm
“No g-modes are trapped in the interior and do not penetrate the convection zone to the surface.”
There is no need for the g-wave to arrive at the surface, they arrive at the tachocline, bring the harmonic signal there. and force the solar dynamo, which then generates a big wave inside the convection zone. You have criticized my paper without reading it, don’t you?
For example, read second column page 308 in
Scafetta, Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation
throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the
11-year solar dynamo cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 80 (2012) 296–311.
The 60 year cycle is one of the solar oscillations, and it is seen in numerous solar records.
See figure 4A and 6D in
Scafetta, Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation
throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the
11-year solar dynamo cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 80 (2012) 296–311.

November 6, 2012 5:31 am

but that a coupled climate model forced with only climatological fluxes and run over 1000 years will reproduce a quasi 60 year oscillation in surface temperature that is related to fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation in the model [Delworth and Mann, 2000]. This suggests the multi decadal oscillation is an internal mode, and not externally forced.
=========
Or that the model has a feature built into the code that causes the 60 year oscillation in the model, but tells us nothing about the causes of this oscillation in the real world. It could simply be an artifact of the model builder’s assumptions and expectations when they built the computer code.
The day someone can model the tides accurately from first principles the way climate models try and model climate, then there might be something to talk about. However, what we have learned about the tides is that they are too complex to model accurately from first principles (forcings/feedbacks).
As it is likely that climate is orders of magnitude more complex than the tides, it seems quite likely that climate models will have even less success at predicting the future than will tide models run from first principles.
As a result of the complexity problem, we model the tides in a manner very similar to computing a horoscope. Who would have thought, Astrology more accurate than scientific principles at calculating the earth’s tides.
The reason why this is true has nothing to do with Astrology, it is simply a result of observation that natural processes tend to be cyclic, not linear. Thus if you can through observation find the cycles in the natural processes then you can make accurate prediction about the future, that would otherwise be too complex to calculate by other means.

November 6, 2012 5:45 am

vukcevic says:
November 5, 2012 at 11:45 pm
“Nonsense”
I am sure you could do better, if you had valid reason.

Every competent electrical engineer would know that because of the high conductivity of the lower mantle and the outer core [which is essentially a superconductor at the frequencies of geomagnetic storms] the skin depth is so small that no external electromagnetic influence can penetrate to ir into the core. I have explained that to you you so many times.
Nicola Scafetta says:
November 6, 2012 at 5:23 am
You have criticized my paper without reading it, don’t you?
I criticized your posting here. The referees’ comments on your rejected papers speak for themselves. BTW, have you considered the strong possibility that the solar dynamo is much closer to the surface than the tachocline? http://www.leif.org/EOS/20111212_NSO-Hathaway.pdf
“The surface shear layer itself may play a more significant role in the solar dynamo”

November 6, 2012 6:00 am

Dario from NW Italy says:
November 6, 2012 at 12:39 am
If we think at the correlation between El Nino and volcanic/tectonic/seismic activity on the ocean floor, first proposed by Winkler back in 1995-97 and by others since then (mainly from the “Surge tectonics” school), we can suppose a 60 year cycle in the Eart’s “engine”….
==========
A cycle in tectonic activity could easily be a harmonic of the tidal forces on the earth, resulting from the near integer harmonics of the planets that stabilizes their orbits. Similar to soldiers marching on a bridge, harmonic oscillations result in much larger effects than would otherwise be predicted.

November 6, 2012 6:16 am

Leif Svalgaard says:
November 6, 2012 at 5:45 am
Every competent electrical engineer would know that because of the high conductivity of the lower mantle and the outer core [which is essentially a superconductor at the frequencies of geomagnetic storms] the skin depth is so small that no external electromagnetic influence can penetrate to ir into the core. I have explained that to you so many times.
That is not disputed, you got the data, you can calculate it and check my numbers. There is possibility that interaction between two fields happens in the lithosphere or conductive magma, or both, magma is some 10-20 km below ocean surface, and may be that is what Jackson, Bloxham & Gubbins have calculated. If so the ’tension’ between lithosphere and magma could be propagating to the ocean’s floor. Independent geology observations also shows that correlation is there
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-NAP.htm
I can’t work out every single detail myself, get your creative thinking hat on and help out.

November 6, 2012 6:48 am

Leif Svalgaard says:November 6, 2012 at 5:45 am
You are right, Leif. The referees’ comments speak for themselves in demonstrating their ignorance and unfairness.
The referee’s process needs to be reformed to prevent those abuses. Good papers should not be rejected simply because some charlatan is chosen as referee and because some editor is unfriendly toward a specific author.

Marc77
November 6, 2012 7:26 am

If you’re on the beach and 3 waves come at a regular interval, how much of a cycle is that?
When it is time to make a statistical analysis, I think a good filter is simply a filter that minimizes variance in relation to a low polynomial best fit. Maybe a second order polynomial at most. As an example, if you use a N-year moving average. As N goes up you expect the variance to go down. But sometimes you have a very low variance for a certain N. I don’t think it is cherry picking to use a method that creates a particularly low variance.

November 6, 2012 7:43 am

vukcevic says:
November 6, 2012 at 6:16 am
There is possibility that interaction between two fields happens in the lithosphere or conductive magma, or both, magma is some 10-20 km below ocean surface
No, there is no such possibility as there is no dynamo operating in those magma chambers. A dynamo is necessary because the magma is above the Curie temperature. As I said, the correlation is spurious.

EW
November 6, 2012 8:00 am

Mike Jonas,
free early version of Kyplot does Fourier transformation and other analyses
http://www.uv.es/piefisic/w3pie/castellano/serv/laboratorios/Kyp2b15.exe

November 6, 2012 8:07 am

“Climate periodicity of about 50-70 years has been detected by various
authors. Spectral analysis of temperature variability series in North America
and Europe for the last 1000 years indicated predominance of cyclic temperature
fluctuations within the range of 60 to 80 years and at 120 years
[Shabalova, Weber, 1999]. In the work by Schlesinger and Ramankutty
[Schlesinger, Ramankutty, 1994] predominance of 65-70-year periodicity of
the global climate was demonstrated. Spectral analysis of the long-period
dynamics of the ocean surface temperature and atmospheric pressure in
North Pacific water area [Minobe, 1997, 1999, 2000] during the last century
demonstrated predominant 50-70-year (and additional 20-30-year) periodicity
of climatic indices PDO and ALPI. Similar data on the 50-70-year
periodicity of ocean surface temperature fluctuations (PDO index) were
obtained by Mantua and Hare [Mantua, Hare, 2002].”
LB Klyashtorin, AA Lyubushin, Et Al. 2007

Reply to  gymnosperm
November 6, 2012 10:48 am

To Gymnosperm: [BTW, I know a sperm…and gymno means a gymnastical
sperm?]
Taking the GISP2 temp series for 10,000 years, you find an exact 61 year
temp up-spike all along for 10,000 years…. this is established fact and UTMOST
accurate, for everybody clearly to see…. Now along come peer/pal -“scientists”.
…taking blurred, distorted, low
resolution data..of a couple 100 years only [2 or 3 % of the Holocene]..boasting
now to “discover” 50-70, a 55-80, a 60-65, a 55-70 year cycles as great “scientific”
news. The one with the greatest smoke screen is called Mike Mann, he blurres the
61 year cycle to its widest amplitude as possible, making it a 50 to 85 year cycle,
thus doubtful for everyone, doubting whether one can speak of a cycle or not….
[thats the master plan….] Additionally, he does not dedicate himself to 10,000 years
but rather selects a speck of 330 years of TRW…… and then he, as the others,
reckon to be the great “cycle experts”……At the contrary,
the new 60-year cycle people are of high quality, not of Warmist low quality cycle
blurrers…
All great news….I am excited, science finally advances with detection of more
60/61 cycles…. progress cannot be stopped… the end of the Mannocene and the
Grant-suckocene is on the horizon…..
and we all can witness it…..JS