This paper Solar forcing on the ice winter severity index in the western Baltic region, was published yesterday in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. It suggests that the winter severity index over the past 600 years in the Baltic region of the Arctic is “strongly modulated” by solar activity over periods as short as one decade, or in other words, the 11 year sunspot cycle. Me, I’m not so sure, because this would likely have been observed before if the correlation were so strong. OTOH, there’s the recent story about the ice skating festivals on canals showing a correlation.
M.C. Leal-Silv V.M. Velasco Herrera
The Sun is the fundamental energy sources of the Earth’s climate and therefore its variations can contribute to natural climate variations. In the present work we study the variability of ice winter severity index in the Baltic Sea since the 15th century and its possible connection with solar activity, based in a new method for finding and measuring amplitude-phase cross-frequency coupling in time series with a low signal/noise ratio, we suggests that the ice winter severity index in the Baltic Sea is modulated by solar activity and solar motion in several frequency bands during the last 500 yrs. According to our model a strong coupling between the decadal periodicity in the ice winter severity index time series and the secular periodicity of solar activity is present. We found that the ice winter severity index is strongly modulated by solar activity at the decadal periodicity. We also found that the 180 year periodicity of the Barycentre motion modulates the amplitudes of the decadal periodicity of solar activity and the Ice winter severity index. This method represents a useful tool for study the solar-terrestrial relationships.
► We present a new method for assessing amplitude-phase cross-frequency coupling.
► We applied the cross-frequency coupling method to different time series.
► The ice winter severity index is strongly modulated by solar activity.