Sea Ice News Volume 3 number 12 – has Arctic sea ice started to turn the corner?

Nothing definitive, but interesting. The area plot above is from NANSEN. The extent plot also shows a turn:

DMI also shows it…

ssmi1-ice-extDanish Meteorological Institute (DMI) – Centre for Ocean and Ice – Click the pic to view at source

But JAXA does not….suggesting a difference in sensors/processes.

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at sourceOf course NSIDC has a 5 day average, so we won’t see a change for awhile. Time will tell if this is just a blip or a turn from the new record low for the satellite data set.

More at the WUWT Sea Ice reference page

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stephen richards

This would be a record refreeze wouldn’t it?

Steve M. from TN

Dont’ be quick on the call 🙂 🙂 ice seems to bounce a bit at the bottom

Henry Clark

In annual averages, less misleading than single months, a turning point was how, from 2007 to the last full year of data (2011), arctic ice extent has been increasing, as seen at http://www.webcitation.org/6AKKakUIo . The big picture of the 60-year cycle is illustrated by that plus http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt.gif (temperatures warmer in the late 1930s than at the end of the 20th century) in combination.

SanityP

Am I seeing things or isn’t it turning a bit later every year, kind of shifting the curve to the right ever so slightly year by year?

Keith Gordon

Looks to me like the sea ice the August storm broke up is beginning to refreeze, the fragmented area seems to be increasing in size, check to time stepping link below, The next few days should tell us if it has turned round early. http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php
Keith Gordon

BernardP

From previous years’ graphs, it seems that similar fake inflexion points have happened in the past. The sad reality is that the 2012 minimum is lower than even 2007. This will provide endless fodder to fan AGW fires in the MSM.

AndyG55

I suspect that the scattered ice will reform quite quickly. We will see.

AndyG55

@ Henry..
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt.gif
And the trend between 1920 and 1940 is FAR steeper and for a lot longer than the tiny section they have highlighted at the right. Must have been.. ….. CO2 I guess 😉

mycroft

Just think how( batshit crazy)( thanks Ryan M)it would make the AGW lot go if that line went straight up way above the 30 year average line……LOL

Steve Schapel

Here’s one hilarious viewpoint on it:

Brian R

If the upturn continues, what I find interesting is that the freeze would be happening 2-3 weeks earlier than anytime in the satellite record.

Gerald Machnee

You mean the ice will not disappear on Sept 22???

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

2012 went up rather high, then zoomed down very low… Looks like the amplitude of the signal is increasing, might destabilize.
We already know where the signal will clip on the low end. What’s the maximum high end?

mfo

Using the info and link from the WUWT Sea Ice page, the daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel has already dipped below the melt line as normal.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

It appears that rapid melt coincided with the Arctic storm in the first 10 days of August. If the storm was indeed the cause, by breaking and churning the ice on one hand and ‘lifting’ the warm water from some depth, the saline warm water would have cooled by now and cold and brackish will sink, leaving only fresh water (from the ice melt) at the top, then unless there is another storm, a rapid freeze will follow.

rogerknights

Henry Clark says:
September 4, 2012 at 1:38 pm
In annual averages, less misleading than single months, a turning point was how, from 2007 to the last full year of data (2011), arctic ice extent has been increasing, as seen at http://www.webcitation.org/6AKKakUIo . The big picture of the 60-year cycle is illustrated by that plus http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt.gif (temperatures warmer in the late 1930s than at the end of the 20th century) in combination.

Mods! Anthony! Post those images inline here for all to see! And add them to the Sea Ice reference page!

wayne

Everyone should take the time to look at the arctic now that there are some big breaks in the clouds to the north of the Chukchi Sea (Bearing Straight). The current view is still Sept. 3 and you’ll have to really zoom in to see all of the ice many agencies seem to say there is none at all. That’s not what I see there. Watch for straight edges to help differentiate from some clouds and you can then see the broken chucks of ice. So that is where all of the missing 2012 ice went to.
http://www.arctic.io/observations/
That link is found on the Sea Ice Reference Page under “Arctic Satellite Imagery: True Color Arctic Satellite Image”.
Seems it’s been just cloud cover for almost a month, glad to finally see some breaks and would really like to know how these agencies count the area and extent underneath the solid cloud cover.
Compare http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php to http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_latest.jpg and even though the first is sea surface temperature it is that one that seems to come closer to match the satellite view. (and I know it is broken ice but sure looks like much more than 15% cover to me, or even 30%)
Just a personal observation.

James Abbott

It would be surprising if it did not move up and down a bit near minimum – just as it does near maximum.
The story this year is a new record melt in the satellite record, not slightly, but by a large margin.
Just how much evidence is needed that the arctic is warming fast – look at the anomalies in sea surface temperature, ice area, ice extent and volume.
The spurious reasons put forward for this cannot deliver the energy required to produce the observed warming and melting across an entire region nor do they explain why this is happening now, so fast, or why the trend is one way.
There is likely to be a rapid refreeze because large areas of open water are going to be exposed to falling sub-zero air temperatures when the Sun sets at the pole, and then the rest of the arctic, over the next few months. But that ice will be thin and vulnerable to a big melt again next year.
Larger amplitude freeze/melt oscillations set in after the 2007 minimum
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png
and could get larger as the summer minimum heads towards very low levels.
I previously posted a range of zero extent possibilities based on 3 interpretations of the September 1979-2011 minimum plot. Earliest 2019 (steady acceleration in decline), latest 2065 (linear).
If we take the current extent as the minimum (which of course it may not be), 2012 trends below the 2019 curve ie consistent with a largely ice free arctic in September within the next 6 years. Accepted it is one year, which alone cannot be used to predict the future, but I would suggest the trend is clear to anyone who looks at the data objectively.

george e. smith

“””””…..SanityP says:
September 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Am I seeing things or isn’t it turning a bit later every year, kind of shifting the curve to the right ever so slightly year by year?…..”””””
Maybe you have it backwards. I seem to recall that the 2007 minimum was very late, and 2008 was at least a wek earlier. If this is a turn, it seems pretty early. But I’ll be happy if it just turns before next March.

Ammonite

Over the years posters at WUWT have made multiple predictions of recovery and myriad derogatory remarks toward arctic scientists and their conclusions. In spite of this, an ocean of ice is disappearing before our eyes. Those that have bet against this trend in sites such as Intrade have lost heavily, melting away like the ice floes themselves. The arctic is telling us all something very important, if we will just listen.

george e. smith

Just a WAG but other things being equal, if the sea ice gets all smashed up in a storm, thereby increasing the total ice perimeter ( assuming not a massive melt down), would one expect a refreeze; once it starts, to go somewhat faster ?
Just asking ?

kent Blaker

The rapid decrease in sea ice area/extent was probably the result of one of the strongest Arctic summer cyclones ever recorded. Rain and windswept waves would have compromised the total area/extent numlbers. With the decrease in temperature, that fresh water rain will have frozen and the sea water would also have frozen. Notice the North pole camera shows that open sea water has now refrozen?
I have noticed many things at this site….Thanks Anthony and crew. One is that, while many sites deal with sea ice,none of them seem to relate that much to each other.The temp in one does not relate to the temp at another. Any site that ignores areas of 15 % or less has to have their methodology questioned. Not to mention that they limit coverage to 100%. Wind can blow sea ice one meter thick on top of one meter sea ice forming multi meter sea ice while reducing the area even when the amount of sea ice is the same.

AJB

No, the variance has dropped off. Same as it does pretty much every year around Sept 9th or so.
Extent: http://postimage.org/image/4zv0qr3qt/full
7-day rate: http://postimage.org/image/rjbv2wofp/full
13-day rate: http://postimage.org/image/4vwlwr8vp/full
Noise: http://postimage.org/image/5gg8d6rhx/full
Hysteresis: http://postimage.org/image/nhzdazlit/full
Summary: http://postimage.org/image/pcc7sq8j9/full
Of course there are those that don’t recognise a noisy, hysteretic loop obviously driven by geography and zenith angle and claim to be able to predict an anomalous trend based on 30 odd plot points with huge error bars. Fine, carry on with the hand wringing. My lawn needs a trim.

polistra

The main thing that strikes me in this graph is that there’s nothing special happening. Not a trend toward catastrophic melting, not a trend toward total freeze. 2012 is just a bit more extreme on BOTH ends than the previous few years, but the extreme-ness is very small compared to the summer-winter delta.

Pascal

Hi…First time poster here. Have been following this site for a couple of years and love the info. Have come across @ “Not a Lot of People Know about That” titled “The Mystery Of The Disappearing Graph” very interesting read. http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/09/04/the-mystery-of-the-disappearing-graph/

The interesting thing in that graph is the increasing winter maximum ice extent.
If I am right and the main cause of the record melt is increased solar insolation (from decreased clouds) melting dirty ice (with embedded BC), then we should continue to see above average winter maximum ice extent and increasing summer minimum extent as most of the dirty ice has been melted, and new ice with less embedded BC is more resistant to insolation driven melt. This will occur either next year or the year after.
BTW, I’m not discounting weather effects.

davidmhoffer

Ammonite;
The arctic is telling us all something very important, if we will just listen.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
What? What is it telling us Ammonite? That the earth is getting warmer? We knew that. It has been getting warmer for 400 years now. That the arctic is warming faster? We knew that too. What? What is it trying to tell us? That natural variability is orders of magnitude larger than the long term trend? We knew that. That this has happened before? We knew that.
What, Ammonite, it it trying to tell us? Can you give us some specifics?

James Abbott

Ammonite said
“Over the years posters at WUWT have made multiple predictions of recovery and myriad derogatory remarks toward arctic scientists and their conclusions. In spite of this, an ocean of ice is disappearing before our eyes. Those that have bet against this trend in sites such as Intrade have lost heavily, melting away like the ice floes themselves. The arctic is telling us all something very important, if we will just listen.”
Spot on.
The WUWT banner says the site is about commentary on (amongst other things) science. Call me old fashioned, but to do science you need data – evidence – observations. Predicting ice recovery based on wishful thinking, in turn based on a predetermined position, is anti-science.

eyesonu

Ammonite says:
September 4, 2012 at 3:36 pm
“The arctic is telling us all something very important, if we will just listen.”
=========================
My grass is talking to me. I can hear it grow. Sometimes it grows more than others. Sometimes less.

Green Sand

Have I missed this? I must have been away!
http://www.arcticrow.com/
Big news from Point Hope, AK!
“The team is happy to report that they completed their journey..”
There was me thinking they were going along the coast to Russia? Maybe they just had a night there and rowed back?
Hey, ho

Henry Clark

AndyG55 and rogerknights:
Indeed and thanks.
Pascal says:
September 4, 2012 at 4:02 pm
“Have come across @ “Not a Lot of People Know about That” titled “The Mystery Of The Disappearing Graph” very interesting read. http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/09/04/the-mystery-of-the-disappearing-graph/
Good find. I’m actually surprised to see a whole article written on it quite already, since, as apparent from the webcitation for it I created on August 31st (guessing in advance it would be deleted), it was online as recently as literally just 4 days ago: http://www.webcitation.org/6AKKakUIo
But the timing makes sense. There is extra attention on arctic ice right now, so something so inconvenient would need one creative excuse or another to eliminate.

James Abbott says:
“Predicting ice recovery based on wishful thinking, in turn based on a predetermined position, is anti-science.”
The climate alarmist crowd is anti-science, and Abbott’s comment is pure projection. I can only speak for myself, but I have never predicted ‘ice recovery’.
What I have stated many times is that the current Arctic ice cycle is entirely natural, and has been repeated throughout the Holocene. As we see here, Arctic ice is currently just about normal [since the 1970’s].
The one thing the alarmist crowd can brag about is their success in framing the Arctic ice debate. They say, “See! Arctic ice is declining! Global warming!”
But the planet has been warming at about the same rate for the past four centuries. Therefore, CO2 has nothing to do with it. The Arctic could become entirely ice free, and the alarmist crowd would still have no scientific evidence showing that human activity is the cause.
So, Abbott, post any scientific evidence you have. Or admit that what we are observing is nothing more than natural climate variability. Or stay in your anti-science bubble.

Dale

I’m just a computer person, but here’s what I get from the graphs……
Start of August ~half a million km2 of ice was churned, moved, destroyed by a large Arctic storm. My thoughts are that the broken churned ice will melt very quickly (like a slushy melts quicker than a block of ice) hence the steep decline over the last month. Now looking at the trend up to the storm, this year’s melt was following a 2011 melt path (from mid June to first week of August). Note when the storm hit the deviation off the 2011 path. Now look at the current level. It’s ~half a million km2 lower than 2011 at the same date.
To me, we’ve seen the rapid melt of ~half a million km2 of churned ice after the storm, plus the normal melt that would have occurred under average conditions. Now the churned ice is gone there’s no ice where there was in 2011 (see the 2007-2012 comparison image on the ice page to see where all that ice went from). Now the line will play catch-up I believe, and stay about this level till refreeze takes over around the normal time it does.
And what if the storm had not have hit? Hard to say, but I think we’d have seen a melt a lot closer to 2011’s and no record.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

From Green Sand on September 4, 2012 at 4:35 pm:

There was me thinking they were going along the coast to Russia? Maybe they just had a night there and rowed back?
Hey, ho

Really? After such a long exhausting trip I would think they’d look for a warm bed and maybe a shot of vodka instead.

MattN

This would indeed be an early start to the refreeze, but that isn’t going to stop the onslaught of press that will be trumpeting the “new all-time record low ice area/volume/whatever” which we clearly have set*.
*since we started looking at it constantly in 1979, that is…

Ammonite said:
“…Over the years posters at WUWT have made multiple predictions of recovery and myriad derogatory remarks toward arctic scientists and their conclusions…”
Well, Ammonite, when you’re fed straight lines like this, the jokes just write themselves:
“…This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions…”
He didn’t say we’d see a new record low, he said we’d be nearly ice free by the end of THIS summer.
Also, Al Gore (during his acceptance speech in 2007 for the Nobel) stated that “…Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years…”
That means if it doesn’t nearly disappear this summer, then surely it will be gone in 2014.
Not to be outdone, another group (in an article from Reuters on Aug 30, 2012 8:00am EDT) said:
“… Ice on the Arctic Ocean could vanish in summertime as early as 2015 or linger for many decades after a thaw to a record low this month that is widely blamed on climate change, according to scientists…”
So either this year, or in 2014 or 2015 or it may linger for many decades…
And you wonder why we question the conclusions of “arctic scientists”?
Which arctic scientist should we listen to, just in case the Arctic isn’t taking our calls?

Bill Illis

The earliest mininum date is from 1975 when it was August 31.
The average minimum date is September 12th (or September 11th in leap years such as 2012).

dp

The refreeze started within days of the August storms in the arctic. That appears to have broken up large floes which regrouped. Quite a lot of it got relocated, and wave action likely is keeping it under the radar, even still. I expect to see the rebound be steeper than the decline (which by the way does not show the affect of the big blow in August – WUWT?).

Caleb

RE:wayne says:
September 4, 2012 at 3:24 pm
For some reason my computer never can quite download that picture from outer space. I appreciate your observations, because I can’t observe.
If someone could do a quick post on the difference between what our lieing eyes actually see, and what the cryosphere today multicolored map shows, the map-makers might need to do some explaining.
All thast would be needed is a close up of ice floating in an area they call “ice-free.”
I prefer using my own eyes these days. Call me distrustful. That is why I like the “north pole camera.” It is still showing solid ice, (with meltwater pools starting to freeze over,) though it has drifted nearly into Fram Straights. Unfortunately snow is stuck to the lens of Webcam #1 today, and the view of Webcam#2 is partially obscured. However if the daylight lasts and it moves fast enough, we may get a view of the actual “edge” of the ice, and compare where the camera says the edge is (before the camera sinks into the sea) with where cryosphere today says it is.

Jason Calley

@ Green Sand “There was me thinking they were going along the coast to Russia? ”
Yes, that was my memory as well, so I looked it up to verify. Sure enough here is a map of their planned voyage to Russia. http://bluecloudspatial.com/arctic-row-map Of course this is far from the described “rowing across the Arctic Ocean.”
Based on the map, I would say that they rowed more like 800 miles out of 1300 planned. And yet their web site says “The team is happy to report that they completed their journey.”
No, not even maybe. Yes, they are finished, but no, they did not complete their journey. For pity’s sake, it is a deadly ocean — can’t they just man up and admit that they got their behinds kicked?!

RACookPE1978

AJB says:
September 4, 2012 at 3:44 pm
No, the variance has dropped off. Same as it does pretty much every year around Sept 9th or so.
Extent: http://postimage.org/image/4zv0qr3qt/full
7-day rate: http://postimage.org/image/rjbv2wofp/full
13-day rate: http://postimage.org/image/4vwlwr8vp/full
Noise: http://postimage.org/image/5gg8d6rhx/full
Hysteresis: http://postimage.org/image/nhzdazlit/full
Summary: http://postimage.org/image/pcc7sq8j9/full
Of course there are those that don’t recognise a noisy, hysteretic loop obviously driven by geography and zenith angle and claim to be able to predict an anomalous trend based on 30 odd plot points with huge error bars. Fine, carry on with the hand wringing. My lawn needs a trim.

No, put the mower away and get back in here. 8<)
Beautiful work. Now, from the DMI database of 80 north daily temperatures since 1958 (64 years of daily temperatures), plot the average summertime temperature (for each day that "model" average is above 0 deg C) time , and the (very small) std deviation for summertime days above the arctic ocean. Plot the rate-of-change for each day over the 64 years.
Now, my question is, why are day time Arctic temperatures above 80 north latitude – the only time of the year when the sun is actually shining – not increasing, if NASA-GISS is claiming the Arctic is now +5 deg C hotter than before?
My second question is, if actual measured Arctic temperatures in the air immediately above the Arctic Ocean in the only area of the Arctic where the sea ice actually is present (at minimum sea ice extent) are not increasing, then why do the CAGW extremists assume that ice melt is a symptom of supposed global warming? Air temperatures above the sea ice are demonstrably not increasing according to day-to-day measurements, so why is the ice melting?
Plot the average wintertime temperature (for every day for the days "off of the slope" of spring and fall). Plot the (very large) std deviation for each day, and the "slope" of that line over the 64 years of data. Are NASA-GISS/NSIDC able to use these wintertime temperatures to "force" a warmer yearly average because they "need" a warmer year-to-year average for their political purposes and continued funding from their government allies and controllers and agencies?
How much of these very, very large wintertime std deviations in daily temperatures coming from missing "M" (minus) sign errors in the records?

Arno Arrak

What can I say? The Arctic is warming and has been since the beginning of the twentieth century. Prior to that there was nothing there but two thousand years of slow, linear cooling. I pointed this out in my book “What Warming?” and again in a peer reviewed article in E&E 22(8):1069-1083 (2011). What got the warming started was a rearrangement of the North Atlantic current system at the turn of the century that began to carry warm Gulf Stream water into the Arctic Ocean. There was no parallel increase of carbon dioxide when the warming started and this rules out the greenhouse effect because it would violate the radiation laws of physics. Direct measurement of water temperature reaching the Arctic in 2010 showed that it exceeds anything recorded for the last two thousand years. The warming was not steady but paused for thirty years in midcentury, then resumed, and is still going strong. This is another aspect of warming that is impossible to do with the greenhouse effect but easy if the previous flow pattern temporarily returned. What I can not understand is why all those so-called “climate” scientist are still clinging to the idea of anthropogenic warming in the Arctic after I proved that this is completely impossible.

The chart is built using a 25km grid cell.
You dont learn a lot by picking and choosing the metric you like.
That said, bottom melt has pretty much ended.
There appears to some weather coming that may cause some havoc.
Should be an interesting week.

Bennett

henrythethird said: “Which arctic scientist should we listen to, just in case the Arctic isn’t taking our calls?”
Priceless.

“Now, my question is, why are day time Arctic temperatures above 80 north latitude – the only time of the year when the sun is actually shining – not increasing, if NASA-GISS is claiming the Arctic is now +5 deg C hotter than before? ”
Simple. There is ice north of 80N. Think about what happens if the air gets too much warmer than the melting point of ice..

rogerknights says: September 4, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Henry Clark says: September 4, 2012 at 1:38 pm
In annual averages, less misleading than single months, a turning point was how, from 2007 to the last full year of data (2011), arctic ice extent has been increasing, as seen at http://www.webcitation.org/6AKKakUIo . The big picture of the 60-year cycle is illustrated by that plus http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt.gif (temperatures warmer in the late 1930s than at the end of the 20th century) in combination.
Mods! Anthony! Post those images inline here for all to see! And add them to the Sea Ice reference page!

I’ve inlined the images below, however the Sea Ice Reference Page only contains current and regularly updated graphs and images, and the graphs below are neither:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]UK MET Office – Formerly – http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/charts/NHEM_extanom.png [/caption]
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]NASA[/caption]
Can anyone offer any background on the MET chart, e.g. what data set is it based on, what percentage of ice coverage does it measure, etc.

DarrylB

A. Arnak.—Thank You, Sorry that I have not read your book, but I will. I have been wondering about this and a concurrent gain in sea ice in the SH for a long time. Without having looked closely at reasons why, it has seemed obvious that these are observations beckoning to be explained.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

From Just The Facts on September 4, 2012 at 6:48 pm:

Can anyone offer any background on the MET chart, e.g. what data set is it based on, what percentage of ice coverage does it measure, etc.

This chart?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/charts/NHEM_extanom.png
You must have broken it, all that comes up for me is it’s 61×53 pixels and nothing is showing. I saved it, and image properties says “Failed to load image information”.
Info on the HADISST dataset is here, has major caveats on recent years due to satellite failure, note at the bottom says they are planning a new version:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/
For their “Arctic sea ice 2012” report, they used NSIDC except for one small Sept time series extent graph. Link and excerpt:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/sea-ice-2012

Climate models which simulate future Arctic sea ice extent show wide variations, but Met Office results suggest the area could be nearly ice-free in summer as early as 2030. Periods of accelerating ice loss are not unusual in climate models, but there is no reason to expect that to continue. Models do not suggest the current accelerated rate of decline would continue or that there was any ‘tipping point’ from which ice extent could not recover. This implies that we could still see periods of relatively small loss in summer sea ice in the future.

Since everyone trusts the UK Met Office for reliable predictions, you know that must be true.

I was reading stories about the Dark Knight Satellite which was supposedly detected in the 50’s and seen in the 60’s and has a Polar Orbit. Maybe some geek can communicate with it and get it to download all its Arctic Ice Data when the can find it again.
Seriously though Mother Nature is playing a ‘gotcha’ moment on all the warmists. She decided to create a new low so they can get into a lather and then end up with egg on face next year, while we sit back and say ‘so what’.
I still havn’t got a message from the Arctic yet.