Nothing definitive, but interesting. The area plot above is from NANSEN. The extent plot also shows a turn:
DMI also shows it…
Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) – Centre for Ocean and Ice – Click the pic to view at sourceBut JAXA does not….suggesting a difference in sensors/processes.
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at sourceOf course NSIDC has a 5 day average, so we won’t see a change for awhile. Time will tell if this is just a blip or a turn from the new record low for the satellite data set.
More at the WUWT Sea Ice reference page
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This would be a record refreeze wouldn’t it?
Dont’ be quick on the call 🙂 🙂 ice seems to bounce a bit at the bottom
In annual averages, less misleading than single months, a turning point was how, from 2007 to the last full year of data (2011), arctic ice extent has been increasing, as seen at http://www.webcitation.org/6AKKakUIo . The big picture of the 60-year cycle is illustrated by that plus http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt.gif (temperatures warmer in the late 1930s than at the end of the 20th century) in combination.
Am I seeing things or isn’t it turning a bit later every year, kind of shifting the curve to the right ever so slightly year by year?
Looks to me like the sea ice the August storm broke up is beginning to refreeze, the fragmented area seems to be increasing in size, check to time stepping link below, The next few days should tell us if it has turned round early. http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php
Keith Gordon
From previous years’ graphs, it seems that similar fake inflexion points have happened in the past. The sad reality is that the 2012 minimum is lower than even 2007. This will provide endless fodder to fan AGW fires in the MSM.
I suspect that the scattered ice will reform quite quickly. We will see.
@ur momisugly Henry..
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt.gif
And the trend between 1920 and 1940 is FAR steeper and for a lot longer than the tiny section they have highlighted at the right. Must have been.. ….. CO2 I guess 😉
Just think how( batshit crazy)( thanks Ryan M)it would make the AGW lot go if that line went straight up way above the 30 year average line……LOL
Here’s one hilarious viewpoint on it:
If the upturn continues, what I find interesting is that the freeze would be happening 2-3 weeks earlier than anytime in the satellite record.
You mean the ice will not disappear on Sept 22???
2012 went up rather high, then zoomed down very low… Looks like the amplitude of the signal is increasing, might destabilize.
We already know where the signal will clip on the low end. What’s the maximum high end?
Using the info and link from the WUWT Sea Ice page, the daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel has already dipped below the melt line as normal.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
It appears that rapid melt coincided with the Arctic storm in the first 10 days of August. If the storm was indeed the cause, by breaking and churning the ice on one hand and ‘lifting’ the warm water from some depth, the saline warm water would have cooled by now and cold and brackish will sink, leaving only fresh water (from the ice melt) at the top, then unless there is another storm, a rapid freeze will follow.
Mods! Anthony! Post those images inline here for all to see! And add them to the Sea Ice reference page!
Everyone should take the time to look at the arctic now that there are some big breaks in the clouds to the north of the Chukchi Sea (Bearing Straight). The current view is still Sept. 3 and you’ll have to really zoom in to see all of the ice many agencies seem to say there is none at all. That’s not what I see there. Watch for straight edges to help differentiate from some clouds and you can then see the broken chucks of ice. So that is where all of the missing 2012 ice went to.
http://www.arctic.io/observations/
That link is found on the Sea Ice Reference Page under “Arctic Satellite Imagery: True Color Arctic Satellite Image”.
Seems it’s been just cloud cover for almost a month, glad to finally see some breaks and would really like to know how these agencies count the area and extent underneath the solid cloud cover.
Compare http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php to http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_latest.jpg and even though the first is sea surface temperature it is that one that seems to come closer to match the satellite view. (and I know it is broken ice but sure looks like much more than 15% cover to me, or even 30%)
Just a personal observation.
It would be surprising if it did not move up and down a bit near minimum – just as it does near maximum.
The story this year is a new record melt in the satellite record, not slightly, but by a large margin.
Just how much evidence is needed that the arctic is warming fast – look at the anomalies in sea surface temperature, ice area, ice extent and volume.
The spurious reasons put forward for this cannot deliver the energy required to produce the observed warming and melting across an entire region nor do they explain why this is happening now, so fast, or why the trend is one way.
There is likely to be a rapid refreeze because large areas of open water are going to be exposed to falling sub-zero air temperatures when the Sun sets at the pole, and then the rest of the arctic, over the next few months. But that ice will be thin and vulnerable to a big melt again next year.
Larger amplitude freeze/melt oscillations set in after the 2007 minimum
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png
and could get larger as the summer minimum heads towards very low levels.
I previously posted a range of zero extent possibilities based on 3 interpretations of the September 1979-2011 minimum plot. Earliest 2019 (steady acceleration in decline), latest 2065 (linear).
If we take the current extent as the minimum (which of course it may not be), 2012 trends below the 2019 curve ie consistent with a largely ice free arctic in September within the next 6 years. Accepted it is one year, which alone cannot be used to predict the future, but I would suggest the trend is clear to anyone who looks at the data objectively.
“””””…..SanityP says:
September 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Am I seeing things or isn’t it turning a bit later every year, kind of shifting the curve to the right ever so slightly year by year?…..”””””
Maybe you have it backwards. I seem to recall that the 2007 minimum was very late, and 2008 was at least a wek earlier. If this is a turn, it seems pretty early. But I’ll be happy if it just turns before next March.
Over the years posters at WUWT have made multiple predictions of recovery and myriad derogatory remarks toward arctic scientists and their conclusions. In spite of this, an ocean of ice is disappearing before our eyes. Those that have bet against this trend in sites such as Intrade have lost heavily, melting away like the ice floes themselves. The arctic is telling us all something very important, if we will just listen.
Just a WAG but other things being equal, if the sea ice gets all smashed up in a storm, thereby increasing the total ice perimeter ( assuming not a massive melt down), would one expect a refreeze; once it starts, to go somewhat faster ?
Just asking ?
The rapid decrease in sea ice area/extent was probably the result of one of the strongest Arctic summer cyclones ever recorded. Rain and windswept waves would have compromised the total area/extent numlbers. With the decrease in temperature, that fresh water rain will have frozen and the sea water would also have frozen. Notice the North pole camera shows that open sea water has now refrozen?
I have noticed many things at this site….Thanks Anthony and crew. One is that, while many sites deal with sea ice,none of them seem to relate that much to each other.The temp in one does not relate to the temp at another. Any site that ignores areas of 15 % or less has to have their methodology questioned. Not to mention that they limit coverage to 100%. Wind can blow sea ice one meter thick on top of one meter sea ice forming multi meter sea ice while reducing the area even when the amount of sea ice is the same.
No, the variance has dropped off. Same as it does pretty much every year around Sept 9th or so.
Extent: http://postimage.org/image/4zv0qr3qt/full
7-day rate: http://postimage.org/image/rjbv2wofp/full
13-day rate: http://postimage.org/image/4vwlwr8vp/full
Noise: http://postimage.org/image/5gg8d6rhx/full
Hysteresis: http://postimage.org/image/nhzdazlit/full
Summary: http://postimage.org/image/pcc7sq8j9/full
Of course there are those that don’t recognise a noisy, hysteretic loop obviously driven by geography and zenith angle and claim to be able to predict an anomalous trend based on 30 odd plot points with huge error bars. Fine, carry on with the hand wringing. My lawn needs a trim.
The main thing that strikes me in this graph is that there’s nothing special happening. Not a trend toward catastrophic melting, not a trend toward total freeze. 2012 is just a bit more extreme on BOTH ends than the previous few years, but the extreme-ness is very small compared to the summer-winter delta.
Hi…First time poster here. Have been following this site for a couple of years and love the info. Have come across @ur momisugly “Not a Lot of People Know about That” titled “The Mystery Of The Disappearing Graph” very interesting read. http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/09/04/the-mystery-of-the-disappearing-graph/