Since we were treated to scads of news articles by the MSM on how many record highs happened in July, it seems only fair that we report on the multitude of record lows that occurred this weekend in the USA, and I doubt we’ll see the sort of coverage the highs got. A number of these record lows go back into the past 100 years or more.
Here’s a map for the weekend:

Here are the 4 record highs:
| OR | Prineville | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 102 | 102 in 1982 |
| OR | Ruch | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 102 | 101 in 1941 |
| TX | Port Isabel | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 96 | 95 in 1913 |
| WA | Longmire Rainier Nps | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 95 | 92 in 1966 |
Here’s a list of the 127 record lows:
| AK | Kodiak Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 41 | 42 in 1959 |
| AR | Harrison Boone Co Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 57 | 57 in 1982 |
| AR | Paragould, 1 miles S of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 62 | 63 in 1982 |
| CO | Holyoke | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 50 in 1976 |
| HI | Opihihale No 2 24.1 | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 59 | 60 in 1984 |
| IA | Allerton | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 56 in 1975 |
| IA | Atlantic, 1 miles NE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 40 | 41 in 1871 |
| IA | Audubon | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 44 in 1871 |
| IA | Bedford | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 50 in 1955 |
| IA | Belle Plaine | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 39 | 45 in 1976 |
| IA | Bloomfield, 1 miles WNW of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 48 | 48 in 1937 |
| IA | Burlington, 2 miles S of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 49 in 1951 |
| IA | Clarinda | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 44 in 1917 |
| IA | Decorah | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 43 | 43 in 1937 |
| IA | Eldora | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 46 in 1951 |
| IA | Fairfield | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 48 in 1917 |
| IA | Grinnell, 3 miles SW of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 44 in 1955 |
| IA | Guthrie Ctr | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 41 | 44 in 1955 |
| IA | Harlan, 1 miles N of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 43 | 46 in 1917 |
| IA | Hawarden | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 43 | 44 in 1976 |
| IA | Iowa City | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 48 in 1937 |
| IA | Keosauqua | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 48 in 1955 |
| IA | Leon, 6 miles ESE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 43 in 1955 |
| IA | Logan | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 46 in 1917 |
| IA | Mapleton No.2 | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 43 in 1917 |
| IA | Mt Ayr | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 44 | 45 in 1871 |
| IA | Ottumwa Industrial Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 50 in 1937 |
| IA | Rathbun Dam | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 52 in 1955 |
| IA | Sheldon | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 39 | 41 in 1976 |
| IA | Sidney | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 50 in 1924 |
| IA | Washington | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 47 in 1937 |
| IA | Waterloo Municipal Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 43 | 43 in 1951 |
| IA | Williamsburg, 3 miles SE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 44 | 45 in 1927 |
| IA | Winterset, 1 miles N of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 41 | 45 in 1955 |
| IL | Cairo, 3 miles N of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 56 | 56 in 1978 |
| IL | Chicago Botanic Garden | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 52 | 52 in 1976 |
| IL | Griggsville | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 49 in 1951 |
| IL | Jerseyville, 2 miles SW of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 52 in 1955 |
| IL | Kaskaskia Rvr Nav Lock | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 51 | 53 in 1983 |
| IL | Kewanee, 1 miles E of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 47 in 1937 |
| IL | La Harpe | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 47 in 1951 |
| IL | Morrisonville | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 52 in 1966 |
| IL | Mt Vernon, 3 miles NE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 51 | 52 in 1871 |
| IL | Normal, 4 miles NE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 49 in 1966 |
| IL | Quincy Rgnl Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 53 in 1937 |
| IL | Rochelle | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 48 in 1966 |
| IL | Springfield Lincoln Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 49 in 1937 |
| IL | White Hall, 1 miles E of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 51 in 1917 |
| IN | Indianapolis Se Side | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 50 in 1937 |
| IN | Perrysville, 4 miles WNW of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 50 in 1966 |
| KS | Atwood | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 48 | 49 in 1920 |
| KS | Clay Ctr | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 50 in 1917 |
| KS | Clinton Lake | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 52 | 55 in 1955 |
| KS | Concordia Asos | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 52 | 55 in 1974 |
| KS | Garnett, 1 miles E of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 56 in 1955 |
| KS | Iola, 1 miles W of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 55 in 1983 |
| KS | Ness City | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 52 in 1955 |
| KS | Oakley, 4 miles W of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 52 in 1934 |
| KS | Oberlin | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 50 in 1893 |
| KS | Pomona Lake | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 56 | 56 in 1966 |
| KS | Smith Ctr | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 52 | 52 in 1934 |
| KS | Topeka Asos | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 53 in 1963 |
| KS | Tuttle Creek Lake | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 51 | 53 in 1955 |
| KY | Paducah Barkley Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 55 | 56 in 1982 |
| KY | Providence | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 56 | 57 in 1980 |
| MI | Big Rapids Wtr Wks | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 26 | 37 in 1917 |
| MI | Howell Wwtp | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 43 | 45 in 1981 |
| MN | Browns Valley | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 41 | 42 in 1976 |
| MN | Forest Lake, 5 miles NE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 46 in 1951 |
| MN | Montevideo, 1 miles SW of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 44 | 44 in 1951 |
| MO | Amity, 4 miles NE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 48 | 50 in 1955 |
| MO | Buffalo, 2 miles N of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 52 in 1906 |
| MO | Butler, 4 miles W of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 52 | 56 in 1982 |
| MO | Canton L | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 52 in 1951 |
| MO | Cape Girardeau Faa Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 52 in 1982 |
| MO | Carrollton | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 53 | 55 in 1955 |
| MO | Clinton | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 48 in 1966 |
| MO | Columbia Rgnl Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 53 | 55 in 1966 |
| MO | Farmington | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 51 in 1950 |
| MO | Fulton | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 48 | 52 in 1917 |
| MO | Hamilton, 2 miles W of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 51 in 1982 |
| MO | Kirksville | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 48 | 49 in 1955 |
| MO | Maryville, 2 miles E of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 49 in 1955 |
| MO | Memphis | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 49 in 1955 |
| MO | Moberly | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 51 | 51 in 1917 |
| MO | Monroe City | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 48 | 55 in 1951 |
| MO | New Franklin, 1 miles W of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 53 in 1966 |
| MO | Perryville Wtp | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 52 in 1950 |
| MO | Princeton | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 50 in 1871 |
| MO | Shelbina | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 48 in 1917 |
| MO | Spickard, 7 miles W of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 49 in 1955 |
| MO | St Joseph Rosecrans Mem | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 43 | 50 in 1955 |
| MO | Unionville | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 50 in 1963 |
| MO | Vichy Rolla National Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 51 | 56 in 1982 |
| MO | Wappapello Dam | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 56 | 57 in 1950 |
| MO | Warrenton, 1 miles N of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 52 in 1966 |
| MT | Mizpah, 4 miles NNW of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 37 | 38 in 1959 |
| NE | Auburn, 5 miles ESE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 48 in 1917 |
| NE | Benkelman | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 51 | 51 in 1934 |
| NE | Chambers | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 44 in 1976 |
| NE | Crete | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 51 | 51 in 1917 |
| NE | Culbertson | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 49 in 1893 |
| NE | David City | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 49 | 52 in 1959 |
| NE | Greeley | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 39 | 46 in 1959 |
| NE | Hartington | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 45 in 1907 |
| NE | Hayes Center, 1 miles NW of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 48 in 1901 |
| NE | Hebron | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 51 in 1917 |
| NE | Imperial | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 49 in 1918 |
| NE | Lincoln Ap | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 49 in 1917 |
| NE | Madrid | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 47 in 1884 |
| NE | Mc Cook | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 50 in 1903 |
| NE | Osceola | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 48 in 1959 |
| NE | Ravenna | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 47 in 1924 |
| NE | Seward | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 48 in 1917 |
| NE | Springview | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 39 | 45 in 1971 |
| NE | Superior, 4 miles E of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 47 | 52 in 1955 |
| NE | Syracuse | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 45 in 1917 |
| NE | Tecumseh, 1 miles S of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 43 | 44 in 1917 |
| NE | Tekamah | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 45 | 47 in 1917 |
| NE | Trenton Dam | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 50 | 50 in 1924 |
| NE | Wakefield | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 43 | 45 in 1976 |
| NV | Ruth | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 32 | 33 in 1942 |
| SD | Madison, 2 miles SE of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 40 | 40 in 1976 |
| SD | Pickstown | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 46 | 48 in 1961 |
| SD | Yankton, 2 miles E of | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 44 | 44 in 1976 |
| TN | Pulaski Wwtp | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 44 | 55 in 1950 |
| TX | Bravo | Sat, 18 Aug 2012 | 42 | 55 in 1982 |
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If you think the nature of Nature to change is now unnatural because of Man, you might be a green-neck.
Jan P Perlwitz says:
August 21, 2012 at 6:16 pm
What are “Santer’s 17 years”? What is supposed to happen at 17 years?
I was referring to:
https://www.llnl.gov/news/newsreleases/2011/Nov/NR-11-11-03.html
A sentence from here:
“They find that tropospheric temperature records must be at least 17 years long to discriminate between internal climate noise and the signal of human-caused changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere.”
I interpret this to mean that for shorter periods than 17 years, there could be so much noise that the warming cannot be detected. However if there is no warming for 17 years, you cannot blame noise any more. You have to face the facts that there is no CATASTROPHIC warming. Or am I interpreting this wrongly?
Jan P Perlwitz
Anyone who understands math and graphs can see your explanation is wanting—it does not legitimize the divergence. GISTemp has diverged from all three of the other data sets in recent years. Before that divergence the four data sets had a relation ship unlike the relationship they had after the divergence of the one set happened. That shows something is going on with GISS data that is not in the others. If two data sets had gone off in divergence that GISTemp has there could be some acceptable explanation. Your explanation, for example, may carry some weight then. But GISTemp is the only one showing warming that the others do not.
James Hansen is an environmental activist. This clearly leaves one with legitimate suspicions about the warming in his data set that has passed through his hands. The data set of a global warming activist, who is called the “grandfather of global warming”, shows more warming in recent years that other well known data sets do. The explanations that try to legitimize why this lone data set shows this warming may ring hollow to many people.
Jan P Perlwitz
As soon as GISS allows “skeptics” to sit in James Hansen’s seat at GISS, all and any “skeptics” as would wish to do so, and are allowed total access to all temperature data that is found anywhere in any computer in that department, and after having examined the data and found they come up with the same output James Hansen and others working in that department have come up with, I will then find no reason to be suspicious of the numbers being produced by that office.
Several cold stations have been dropped from the temperature record:
Joseph D’Aleo, drop cold temperature stations, keep warm ones, voilà, global warming
3 minute video
I see Perlwitz is trying to play the Peer Review Card…
Somebody needs to point him at the ClimateGate Emails where he can see how subornation of peer review has been fully exploited and it is now Pal Review.
Mr. Perlwitz, I don’t give a tinkers damn for what you think about me, or what I’ve done; and NONE of it needs any “review” beyond being up and published for anyone who cares to read it. There is more to life than journals and more to truth and Pal Review.
The Team have completely discredited the process of science (as they do it) and are busy corrupting and smearing the reputation of many (formerly) fine organizations. What they fail to understand (and what you clearly don’t get) is that when someone has a High Reputation, and starts selling Timeshares or pedaling soap in late night commercials, it only works for a little while. Then THEY have the loss of reputation as “folks catch on”.
So the Peer Review card worked for a few years, then they were “outed”. It’s now a tarnished old ‘star of yesterday’ selling soap on midnight TV…
“The Truth just is. -E.M.Smith”
As opposed to your point of view that the truth is only what The Team and their Pals allow…
The GIStemp code is badly written, implements bad procedures, produced ‘irreproducible results’, and has little connection to reality. It “Tells Tall Tales” (especially about the Arctic) and I’d not trust it for any use at all. It is far better to just use the basic data prior to it being molested.
At best, it is suitable for producing things to be published in The Journal Of Irreproducible Results…
(There’s a reason why that phrase “irreproducible results” can carry the humor load of that Journal title… a reason why results must be reproducible to be Science at all. Sadly, GIStemp isn’t even reproducible from one month to the next. Anyone who cares to download the graph for a location can just wait a few months and compare them. DOZENS (hundreds?) of such A/B compares have been done here. GIStemp just keeps re-writing history and being 100% “Irreproducible Results”. Until that changes, it is NOT Science in any way, so needs no response via a Pal Reviewed “journal”.)
Jan P Perlwitz says:
August 20, 2012 at 4:20 pm
1. Do you care to share the scientific reference from which the picture under the link was taken?
Why would the occurrence of some record lows be “doubly bad for warmists”?
Jan, something did not seem right about me missing something so I double checked and apparently missed this one. I apologize for that.
In answer to the questions you raised as to where I got that diagram from. Dr. David Evans wrote a 26 page pdf on the missing hot spot and this diagram was on page 21. Go to: MissingSignature.pdf Then click on
[PDF]
The Missing Hotspot
Adobe PDF
1 The Missing Hotspot Dr David Evans (david.evans@sciencespeak.com) 21 July 2008 Last major revision 22 Mar 2009, Last minor revision 18 Sept 2010
As for the two record lows comments, we are at the high point of the sine wave so a record low would be rare for that reason. But apart from the high point on the sine wave, it is generally accepted that we have warmed up about 0.7 degrees C since about 1750. The combination of both factors should make record lows very rare indeed. The fact that there were so many recently suggests that the CO2 is not causing catastrophic warming. I realize this is just weather, but it still does not look good for warmists.
Oh, and I likely ought to put a light on “the game” being played by Perlwitz… It’s pretty transparent, but for those who are not watching closely:
First, we get the ~”all the code is public. ANYONE can go look at it and see for themselves”.
Then when I say “I did, it’s crap”, that changes to roughly ~”Well, anyone who’s peer reviewed can have a valid opinion and assessment…”
So you get a “bait and switch” process. “Anyone” can go look – as long as they say it’s all just fine. Say it isn’t, well, you are not anointed enough then… So what’s the point in saying “Go look” if the intent is to dismiss the results of the looking? There clearly was NO intent that folks could go “look for themselves”, only that “Peers and Pals” could really matter…
It is such pointless GAME PLAYING that is one of the hallmarks of deception, IMHO, and that kind of thing was one of the first things to convince me that one side was playing games (the warmers) while the other side was looking for real ground level truth.
So I’m all in favor of the “Go look for yourself” from the original comment. And I did (a few years ago now). That’s why every single step of what I did is published for everyone who would like to “go see for themselves”. Nobody needs stand between YOU and the truth. Yes, it takes time and effort. But there is no ‘gatekeeper’ on my postings. (“Truth needs no gatekeeper. -E.M.Smith” nor, I would add, a “peer or pal reviewer”…) Perlwitz clearly thinks otherwise…
If you think that the only people qualified to disagree with you are the people that agree with you, you might be a green-neck.
Friends:
A post in this thread is an example of pure pseudoscience.
Science
consists determining the nearest possible approximation to ‘truth’ by formulating ideas then attempting to find information which refutes those ideas and amending or rejecting those ideas on the basis of obtained information.
Pseudoscience
consists of deciding an idea is ‘truth’ and attempting to find information which supports the idea and ignores information which rejects the idea.
I have copied a post in this thread and intend to you use it as an example of pure pseudoscience when explaining the difference between science and pseudoscience. The example is this:
All information pertinent to an idea is of “scientific relevance”.
In this case, the idea is that the method used by GISS is correct.
A scientific response to EM Smith would have been,
“Please be specific in stating the places where you found the alleged errors so we can investigate them.”
A pseudoscientific response to EM Smith is,
“I have found an excuse which I will use to ignore your alleged errors; i.e. I will pretend the information does not exist – or is not of scientific relevance – unless it is published in a manner and a place I specify”.
Richard
PS I think it useful to keep a list of pseudoscience posted on WUWT by Perlwitz. The list grows and grows.
Anthony Watts wrote in reply to
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/20/us-record-lows-outpace-record-highs-127-to-4-this-weekend/#comment-1062555
Yes, and nowhere did I say it wasn’t. But the statements in sentence 2 and 3 in your reply were mere statements of opinion.
Anthony Watts wrote in reply to
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/20/us-record-lows-outpace-record-highs-127-to-4-this-weekend/#comment-1062562
I’m not the one with the burden of proof with respect to your accusations against Jim Hansen. You make accusations against a person, you have the burden of proof.
A look in the GISS directory could already have answered all your questions with respect to my primary affiliation. But what I observe here, not just with respect to this factoid, there seems to be a pattern that you prefer to make assertions before doing proper research.
Because I work at GISS. There aren’t only federal employees working at GISS.
That’s your assertion.
What are supposed to be “GISS working hours”? I don’t have regular working hours. I’m not paid for a 9 to 5 job. I also often work from home, since I have a nice, large home office with a great view.
You worry too much about me. You should rather worry about your own issues, of which you seem to be projecting a lot on others. Going down the path of Jim Hansen would not be such a bad one. He is an internationally well respected scientists and what he says matters. There are much worse paths to go down. For instance becoming part of an angry fringe group, who has lost the scientific argument and therefore doesn’t have much more left than raging in opinion blogs like this one here, and to delve into absurd fantasies about a worldwide, omnipotent conspiracy that was suppressing “The Truth”.
REPLY: Yeah I’m sure GISS will respond timely to the FOIA requests just like they have in the past /sarc. They will cite “employee privacy” and tell me to pound sand, thus your “burden of proof” claim is unobtainium.
” Going down the path of Jim Hansen would not be such a bad one.”
I look forward to seeing you arrested with Jim soon. You work at GISS, but aren’t a federal employee? Check. That makes you expendable when the reorganization comes.
BTW when will you be pushing your partners at RC to allow for skeptics such as myself to post there without their comments being immediately deleted? Since you are so concerned over the issue here (from your smear blog posting) I’d like to see that email where you take your concerns for “free speech” to the very people in your office who suppress it. Or, will I have to FOIA that one too?
Your attitude towards people here suggests you embrace the “instant deletion” of RC comments by skeptics such as myself. I look forward to your position on the matter.
– Anthony
Amino Acids in Meteorites wrote:
Argumentum ad populum
E.M.Smith wrote at August 21, 2012 at 9:18 pm:
I haven’t dismissed anything. If you think you have found something substantial then publishing it in a peer reviewed climate journal would be the next logical step. If you don’t have enough experience get someone on board who does. What about McIntyre? Why don’t you try to get him onboard? He should be very eager to publish something that proves all those ugly analyses from GISS about global warming as bogus. There are enough specialist journals in the field where this could get published. And if nothing helps, there is still Energy & Environment.
And here comes the conspiracy fantasy again. Another meme and talking point in the fake skeptic universe. All the climate journals are under the control of a sinister global, omnipotent conspiracy, so that “The Truth” can’t get published. Excuses, excuses.
The GAME is that I request you and your friends have to uphold the same scientific standards as working scientists are mandated to fulfill to get published with the results of their research, especially if you want to question the validity of those results. To uphold a high level of scientific standards is the function of the peer review process. It doesn’t always work out, reviewers are not infallible, editors make mistakes too, but the standards are in place. And once you do I will accept you as true skeptics. You seem to think that is such an unfair game toward you, currently. But it’s the other way around. You don’t want fairness, because you want a privileged treatment compared to working scientists. You want the elaborations in your opinion blog be seen on equal footing, but you don’t want to uphold the same scientific standards. Or you want to lower the standards altogether. The ones who don’t like a rigorous peer review process are the ones who want to lower the standards.
And nothing that prevents you from asserting whatever you want and its opposite in your opinion blog. And it ensures that nothing what you produce there is put under the same scientific scrutiny by the scientific community as the scrutiny which is put on the results from research published by working scientists. You don’t have any mandated standards of a scientific discussion, standards like everything has to be backed up with references and proof of sources. You don’t have to follow rules like stating clearly the assumptions, that the conclusions are logical and sufficiently backed up with the evidence provided, that the methodology is sufficiently described to be able to scientifically reproduce the results, and to refrain from attacking other scientists, instead of providing scientific counter-arguments, if you don’t agree with the results from the research provided by the other scientists.
I’m not going to take someones elaborations as equally seriously as a real scientific publication, whatever this someone asserts how important it is scientifically what he has done, if this someone refutes to submit to the same standards to which working scientists are required to submit.
You and Mr. Courtney are allowed to complain about this to the Internet.
REPLY: “You and Mr. Courtney are allowed to complain about this to the Internet.”
Allowed?
Wow, just wow, that has to be the most arrogant condescending comment I’ve ever seen. This while whining in blog posts at your new blog that a couple of your comments got deleted here out of the now over 150 you’ve made.
Mr. Perlwitz, I think I shall make an example of your comment. Until that time, I suggest for your own good that you limit your postings here, you aren’t making any friends, and you aren’t convincing anyone with your attitude.
– Anthony
Jan P Perlwitz:
I have often disputed comments you have made on this blog but I don’t think I have ever before had reason to thank you for one of your posts. Hence, I take this opportunity to thank you for your post at August 22, 2012 at 7:44 am.
Thankyou for the laugh. As you say you do, I work from home so I often need a laugh to lighten the working day, and after reading your post it took minutes for me to stop laughing. Thankyou.
Just in case you have forgotten the comedic treasure for which I am thanking you, it said this in total
And in case you don’t remember what Amino Acids in Meteorites had written and which you were answering, it was this
I really did enjoy your Pythonesque reply and I would appreciate more and similar comedy, please.
Richard
Anthony Watts wrote in reply to
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/20/us-record-lows-outpace-record-highs-127-to-4-this-weekend/#comment-1062777
Not my problem.
If you say so. I’m certain you look forward to it.
I don’t have anything to do with maintaining the RealClimate blog. Btw: I have seen that true skeptics can place their comments at RC.
What does my office have to do with the RealClimate blog? RC is a private undertaking hosted by scientists from various countries:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/contributors/
No one is entitled to “Free Speech” on private blogs. Here on yours, or on RC. Censorship is up to the discretion of the blog hosts.
Why don’t you document the comments by you that allegedly get deleted from RC, like I document comments by me that get deleted here. Then everyone can judge for him/herself about the content.
REPLY: Oh, I have, and you’ll see them in the upcoming blog post about you and RC. In the meantime, for your own good, I suggest you limit your comments here.
“No one is entitled to “Free Speech” on private blogs. Censorship is up to the discretion of the blog hosts.” yet you complain about two missing and some snipped comments here out of the over 150 you’ve made. Your hypocrisy is boundless.
– Anthony
Anthony Watts wrote in reply to:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/20/us-record-lows-outpace-record-highs-127-to-4-this-weekend/#comment-1062843
I have never used the “Free Speech” argument with respect to the snipping of my comments on your site or demanded that you post my comments appealing to “Free Speech”. I have more than one time emphasized in previous comments, that it is up to your own discretion what you do here, since it’s your blog.
So what again is supposed to be my “hypocrisy”? You are making things up.
REPLY:LOL! You can always tell a GISS man, but you can’t tell him much. – Anthony
Anthony Watts wrote in reply to
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/20/us-record-lows-outpace-record-highs-127-to-4-this-weekend/#comment-1062782
Really! After you and your friends write comment after comment with statements in which I’m personally attacked and my person is made a topic here, and not the first time, it riles you up when I get a bit snarky. Now, that I call hypocrisy.
Jan P Perlwitz:
Until today I had not had any reason to thank you and this is the second time I write to thank you today.
I concluded my post to you at August 22, 2012 at 8:57 am by saying and asking
I did not think you would fulfill my request so soon, but you have provided your post at August 22, 2012 at 9:41 am.
Thankyou. Please keep them coming. Until now I had failed to recognise your talent for comedy and I am impressed by it.
Richard
This is precious. I point out the (IMHO stupid and pointless) tactic of the old Two Step:
“Here, it’s all public, even the unwashed can check for themselves” followed by “Oh Dear, someone looked! Well then, it MUST be ‘peer reviewed’ to have merit” (so opinions not in favor can be dismissed).
The response is a long tirade on how peer review is the only Holy Grail for truth and an assertion that I’m indulging in a “conspiracy fantasy”. Don’t know if it is a symptom of a cognitive defect or just a very broken ‘debating’ style.
My general leaning is to just ignore the ranting, and I will for most of it. But a couple of minor points:
1) No, there is no “grand conspiracy”. Never have thought there was. That is YOUR fantasy. There is a “strong social bias”. The natural outgrowth of how societies like to pack political organizations with “one of their own”. Simple test: Look at how many grants are given by NSF and other NGOs to skeptical scientists vs the kind of nutty stuff that gets grants on the “warmer” side. (Tarps over the Great Barrier Reef? Dog Poo fermenters to ‘fight Global Warming’?) Second simple test: Look in the Climategate Emails at the direct stated behavior of strong arming Journal Editors who dared to publish skeptics articles. Look at the emails about attempts to sink skeptic’s papers.
Clue: It’s not a conspiracy theory when the folks doing it are caught red handed.
2) Your “Excuses, excuses” line implies that I am making an excuse for not doing a paper to be published. That is YOUR desire for me to do what YOU want. The original thing you said was acceptable was for folks to just go look for themselves. You did not say “go look for yourselves and get a paper published in an acceptable journal.” So I’m making NO EXCUSES, but simply did exactly that thing you had said was a fine thing for anyone to do. Look for myself. Only after the “it’s crap” assessment came back do you change the “requirement” to include a “go get published” rant.
Clue: My statement above is NOT about peer reviewers. It is about YOU changing YOUR terms from ‘anyone can go look’ to ‘peer review it or it is worthless’ when confronted by things you didn’t like. “The Game” is the one YOU are doing with the ‘bait and switch’ debating. The old Two Step side step.
So your attempt to once again shift away from your ‘bait and switch’ to a discussion of the merits of peer review (and a smear of some kind of conspiracy theory assertion) is noted. Slippery as an eel in mud comes to mind.
3) I’m a semi-retired private person. I’m not interested in playing the silly Bridge Game of “Climate Science Peer Review”. All I care about is truth. I can find more of it, faster, just ploughing through and not wasting my time polishing papers. I might do it someday, but as I’m doing this on my own dime and my own time and for my own learning and advancement; I see no reason to waste even one minute of my time ‘pushing papers’.
Clue: I’m not interested in “playing your game”. I’ve got a life.
4) There is ample evidence for “duck, dodge, weave, delay, denigrate, attack and slime” in the Climategate Emails. Use of Peer Review as a hurdle to deflect folks, then ‘pocket-veto’ their papers via influence pedaling. You demand that I submit to that. I have no need, and less desire.
Clue: When your opponent chooses to set the field of battle, choose another time and place. Read your “Art of War”… ~ “Accept nothing your opponent offers to you.” So you are offering Peer Review as the only choice. I decline to accept that…
Basically, you are trying to set up Peer Review as the Sisyfus Mountain and wish for Skeptics to all climb it (taking lots of time and effort) only to have a group of Pals sending them back to the bottom. I decline to play that game. (NOT a ‘conspiracy theory’ – read the Climategate Emails for real ‘facts on the ground’ evidence.)
It may be central to your mindset and your life; it is a waste of time and distraction to me. As you say “Not my problem”.
5) The good news is that post Climategate there has been something of a break in the Pal Review process. Knowing that “the game is rigged” at several key journals, more folks are going to “other” Journals outside the cabal. We’re seeing more interesting names now on some articles. IMHO, the future rests with what I would call “Open Review”. Folks publish electronically to an ‘interest group’ (folks subscribed to a blog, for example) who ‘bat it around’ and do the Peer Review feedback process. If desired, sub-groups can be set up on a password basis. Once through that (with all subscribers in a review group seeing the comments), the author can then submit to a Journal or simply go to “Open Published” on the site (i.e. move to the “published” pages instead of the “private / password protected” pages). In that way no one can act as gatekeeper, yet folks wanting to “only read what is past review” can choose what level of subscription to read.
In short: The Pal Review problem is going to be an albatross on your neck for the rest of your life unless it gets changed. I’d rather change it than spend my time bathing in it. I don’t like dirty water… (Don’t think it’s a dirty process? Look at what Phil Jones and friends said in their emails…)
So no, Mr. Perlwitz, you do not get to set the grounds of the debate. You do not get to tell me what I must do, nor what I must think. Neither you, nor anyone else, can be Gate Keeper On Truth. (Though you can, and do, choose to ignore it; and rant about folks who don’t want to join your club if only they would walk over enough broken glass first and accept your orders.)
I’ve chosen a role I call “Plough the field”. I move fairly fast over large areas rapidly turning up what is of interest. Others, should they wish, can then take those things and do with them what they will. If they want to do a peer reviewed published article from it, that’s Fine With Me. (I have suggested that a small footnote would be a ‘nice touch’ and I’ve seen some already ;-). You see, I have no “ego” in this. “It isn’t about me.” So the ‘attack the messenger’ and the ‘appeal to authority’ and the ‘Peer Review Ploy’ are just wasted effort on me.
As an example:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/08/11/drought-is-not-a-global-warming-sign/
I put that together after Hansen got that Junk Paper published claiming we were having “warmest ever” droughts. Took a few hours of my life, but not a whole lot. Shows rather clearly that he’s just “full of it” and quite wrong. (Uses sources that are peer reviewed, btw, and even from “inside the house” of NOAA as a nice touch…)
So Hansen makes a ‘big splash’ via the whole Pal Review and News Hound Activist process, but it’s junk. Taking a year (or three?) to get a peer reviewed paper published (given the hurdles in the way) is far less important to me than just demonstrating his assertion is crap. Clearly, and rapidly. Also far more effective.
Now if someone wants to lever off of that and spend a year (or more?) of their life in the rat hole of Pal Review (or find a Journal that is still honest and publish there), they are quite welcome to it.
And, quite frankly, I find the amount of Truth in what I published far greater than that in the Hansen paper. So I really do have to wonder just how much value is added by Pal Review anyway. It’s looking more and more like a faded TV star hawking Timeshares in Florida…
But hey, it’s your swamp. Enjoy the mud wallow…
Werner Brozek says:
August 21, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Entropic man says:
August 21, 2012 at 9:59 am
That would not exclude a rise of 0.6C or a decrease of 0.6C over the 15 year period. Your claim is not justified by the data.That is why noone is getting too excited.
The data also would not exclude no change over the 15 year period either. I really wish it were true that no one is getting exited. But that is not the case. Under the circumstances, I would think it would be prudent to NOT spend a billion dollars on carbon capture as they plan on doing here in Alberta. For political reasons, some people are very excited over a warming that does not seem to exist. Would it be too much to ask that people NOT spend a lot of money on a perceived problem which may not materialize?
As for the error bars, you would have to take that up with WFT. It only does that for BEST.
———————————–
When the 95% confidence margins are large you get too many possibilities. It does not mean you can pick whichever you like. It means that that the no valid pick can be made at all.
If you drew a similar graph using 1999 as your start it would show an upward trend, which would please a Greenpeace activist, but would be just as meaningless as your flat line.
Robert Carter made two statistical mistakes when he started this “15 years with no warming” hare.First he started with a statistical outlier, unrepresentative of the longer term trend. 1998 was an extreme El Nino year. Secondly, as we discussed, the data is too variable to see a meaningful trend in the short timespan of 15 years.
It is not a statistically meaningful pattern, but it makes good propoganda to impress the credulous.
It does have an unfortunate side effect. Outside the sceptic community its statistical invalidity is recognised by other scientists and it tarnishes the whole of sceptic science. It encourages the view that if one widely repeated scientific statement by a sceptic is spurious, maybe others are likely to be equally spurious.
Entropic says:
“Outside the sceptic community its statistical invalidity is recognised by other scientists and it tarnishes the whole of sceptic science.”
Entropic still doesn’t get it. There is no “sceptic science”. There is only science, and pseudo-science. CAGW falls into the latter category. As for the former, the only honest kind of scientist is a skeptical scientist. The others are either dishonest or deluded. That includes all flavors of CAGW believers.
Entropic man says:
August 22, 2012 at 4:48 pm
1998 was an extreme El Nino year.
That is true. However the significance of this fact is greatly diminished by the fact that the slope is basically flat before the extreme El Nino as well as afterwards. So whether you would like to think of it as 15.5 years or 12.5 years of no warming, the warming is NOT catastrophic. See
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2000/trend
Unfortunately it stops in March, 2012, but the slope is negative from 1997, BUT it is also negative since 2000 once we get passed the huge 1998 El Nino.
slope = -1.3793e-05 per year since 1997
slope = -0.000957242 per year since 2000
Jan P Perlwitz blah, blah, blah, in a condescending tone.
Werner Brozek:
You are right in all you say in your post at August 22, 2012 at 8:24 pm. But I again repeat the important fact which I always state when trolls obfuscate about the statistical significance of recent global warming.
According to each of the global temperature data sets there has been no statistically significant (at 95% confidence) global warming in the last 10 years. But there was statistically significant global warming in each of the previous 10-year periods. So,
the statistically significant global warming from 1970 to 2000 has stopped.
Richard
Smokey:
At August 22, 2012 at 6:15 pm you say
Entropic man does “get it”. But it is not what Entropic man is paid to say.
Richard