Tom Nelson observes some interesting and inconvenient data to rebut The Guardian’s Susanne Goldenberg and Paul Krugman of the New York Times: For warmists trying to convince us that carbon dioxide causes lower US corn yields, an *extremely* inconvenient graph
[Warmist Suzanne Goldenberg] …because of a brutal combination of triple-digit (40C) temperatures and prolonged drought. Scientists see both as evidence of climate change.
The Burning Land – NYTimes.com
[Warmist Paul Krugman] I’ve been searching for something useful to say about the epic heat wave and drought afflicting U.S. agriculture…
Yet with so much of the American political spectrum in fierce denial over the issue, there is no prospect whatsoever of getting action.
But the data says otherwise Ms. Goldenberg and Mr. Krugman. Have a look for yourself, one year, one drought, does not a trend make. But Krugman is relying upon the heated hyperbolic opinion of Joe Romm, so I suppose we can understand how he was taken in.
CARPE DIEM: Corn Yields Have Increased Six Times Since 1940
Roger Pielke Jr. pulls out his handy BS button for this one, citing Krugmans passage:
In yesterday’s NYT Paul Krugman writes:
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[R]eally extreme high temperatures, the kind of thing that used to happen very rarely in the past, have now become fairly common. Think of it as rolling two sixes, which happens less than 3 percent of the time with fair dice, but more often when the dice are loaded. And this rising incidence of extreme events, reflecting the same variability of weather that can obscure the reality of climate change, means that the costs of climate change aren’t a distant prospect, decades in the future. On the contrary, they’re already here, even though so far global temperatures are only about 1 degree Fahrenheit above their historical norms, a small fraction of their eventual rise if we don’t act.
The great Midwestern drought is a case in point. This drought has already sent corn prices to their highest level ever. If it continues, it could cause a global food crisis, because the U.S. heartland is still the world’s breadbasket. And yes, the drought is linked to climate change: such events have happened before, but they’re much more likely now than they used to be.
Now, maybe this drought will break in time to avoid the worst. But there will be more events like this. Joseph Romm, the influential climate blogger, has coined the term “Dust-Bowlification” for the prospect of extended periods of extreme drought in formerly productive agricultural areas. He has been arguing for some time that this phenomenon, with its disastrous effects on food security, is likely to be the leading edge of damage from climate change, taking place over the next few decades; the drowning of Florida by rising sea levels and all that will come later.
And here it comes.
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Pielke Jr. writes:
Instead of looking at the musings of a “climate blogger” (as entertaining as that may be) like Krugman does, let’s instead look at scientific research that has examined trends in US droughts. A crazy idea, I know. Fortunately, scientists have examined empirical data on the frequency and severity of drought on climate time scales.
Here is Andreadis and Lettenmaier (2006) in GRL (PDF):
[D]roughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, less severe, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century.
Read Pielke Jr.’s full post here, and don’t forget to get a look at his great book, The Climate Fix
Re. Rob Potter’s comment about allergens:
Rob, be careful when talking about allergens. Allergy refers to diseases in which immune responses to environmental antigens cause tissue inflammation and organ dysfunction.
Any foreign (i.e. non-self) substance capable of inducing an immune response is a potential allergen, so care is needed when referring to proteins expressed in GM crops as allergens.
Allergy affects only some of the individuals who are exposed to the allergen, and is the result of a complex interaction between the chemical and physical properties of the allergen, the route and mode of exposure, and the unique genetic makeup of an individual. The propensity to develop these conditions varies among age groups, sexes and races, and the classification of these diseases depends on the immunological mechanism involved. A complex area, and off thread, so I’ll stop!
_Jim says:
July 23, 2012 at 11:55 am
Gail Combs says July 23, 2012 at 11:25 am
…
I am not ideologically against GMOs, I just want them to go through the same type of FDA testing that is required of anything new.
…
A few questions if I may ….
(1) Do you expect more or less allergic (human) reaction(s) from (when eating) GMO crops?
(2) Can you explain to us what cooking does do to the proteins and carbohydrates in these GMO crops?
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_Jim that is why I want GMOs to be tested the same way new drugs are tested and not just given a hand wave as they are now.
Rob Potter says:
July 23, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Gail and Jim,
This thread has nothing to do with GM crops, so I will be short. FDA only regulates drugs and food additives, not whole foods …
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I am sorry but that is incorrect. FDA stands for the FOOD and Drug Act.
This is straight from the FDA website.
Also note that while US farmers are ignored when it comes to the new law (over 5000 comments that said HECK NO to the first try at a National Animal Identification System and a HECK NO at all the “Listening sessions” ) the FDA is going to ASK WTO and our trading partners to “Approve” the law!!!
But considering many people now call GMOs “Frankenfood” perhaps you are correct the FDA does not regulate (real) food because the USA no longer grows much actual real food anymore. All that is left is regulating “Frankenfood” /snicker
Galane says:
July 24, 2012 at 1:27 am
If you’re against genetically modified foods but eat vegetables and fruits grown from cross-bred hybrid seed, I think that makes you a bit of a hypocrite. Hybridization is a high level form of genetic manipulation which has been used for thousands of years, mostly on food crops.
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Apples and Orangutans.
Humans have been doing genetic SELECTION since before they settled down to do actually farming. (my old Anthro textbook) a sort of link Genetic selection and then hybridization, the crossing of two purebred parents, is entirely different from using an agent to insert foreign genes into a plant in a laboratory. That is what GMO stands for a genetically in the laboratory modified organism.
An example of GMO
Because the use of genetic transfer is so controversial, the Spin Meisters are as usual ‘redefining’ the word to mean any manipulation of breeding stock to produce more valuable offspring and thus getting rid of the differentiation between lab manipulation and on farm breeding programs. After all how can you argue about a point whose definition just got changed? We are seeing it in the CAGW controversy as ‘Global Warming’ has morphed into ‘Climate Change’ Same propaganda strategy in both cases. – Move the playing field to confuse the issue.
Oh and _Jim if you want a ‘Corn’ spir acy how about this letter from a professor emeritus at Purdue University, APS Coordinator, USDA National Plant Disease Recovery System (NPDRS) link
Any day now another international group will be awarding an award for climate science to Krugman. Perhaps the biased Nobel committee will award a second medal to him.
The “hockey stick” in the corn production graph corresponds to the introduction of mass amounts of pesticides, synthetic fertilizers (anhydrous ammonia being the biggest contributor currently) and hybrid/GM seeds. I think some have mentioned one or the other, but it is really the combination of both in the post-war (WWII) agricultural environment.
Oh Galane,
Don’t be disrespecting ‘dem Dandy Lion (kidding here – not attacking you, please realize). I’ll let online searching links show anyone interested in their good food value. Maybe your mentioned genetic work with dandelion will get it on the menu more.
Since there’s no official WUWT cookbook compiled yet here’s some unsolicited suggestions:
Dandelion Pickled Buds:
(a) chop garlic/onion/ginger, (b) put an inch layer of that seasoning mix into quart jar, (c) add never opened dandelion buds until quart jar half full, (d) add apple cider vinegar & if want to a dash or even a shot glassful of soy sauce, (e) make sure to leave an inch of headroom in jar, (f) cover to keep out bugs & let sit at least 21 days
Dandelion Blossom Jelly:
(a) 1 quart packed volume of early washed dandelion blossoms (no green parts or stems), (b) bring to boil in 5 cups H20 for 1 minute of boiling, (c) strain off solids & retain liquid, (d) add 1 common size packet of pectin to the dandelion liquid as stir and heat, (e) once boils stir in 4 cups sugar, (f) simmer about an hour or until jelly sheets off of the spoon, (g) skim off anything obvious & pour into sterilized jars, (h) if not consuming right away use canning procedure of a 5 minute boil bath to seal properly
Apparently another disciple of Krugman did not get the message:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/climate-changes-costs-hit-the-plate/article4436775/
Typical of the Canadian newspaper to spew this kind of garbage.
The problem with the dice analogy is, if you get two or three double-sixes in a row, it doesn’t PROVE the dice are weighted. It happens, with a measurable probability, even with unweighted dice. Specifically, there’s a 0.002% chance of rolling three double-sixes in a row with fair dice. And if you give yourself enough different regions to work with, and use a loose enough definition of “drought” (for example, “drier than normal”, which is probably what Krugman used, would equate, in the dice analogy, to “any total on two rolled dice greater than 7”, which happens 42% of the time, not 3%, and happens on three consecutive rolls with a 7% probability), you’re sure to be able to find SOME region of the world that had three drought years in a row.
But the “Great Midwestern Drought” (which as far as I can tell is a term coined by Krugman) is limited to ONE YEAR. In fact, if you look up “US drought” on Wikipedia, there were much worse droughts, extending for five to ten years, in the 1930s, 1950s, and 1960s, in different regions of the country. And yes, those were all before man-made global warming kicked off. I guess the “Dust Bowl” drought of the 1930s, which lasted 10 years in some areas, was the equivalent of rolling double-sixes ten times in a r0w – with a probablity of 0.000000000000027%. But the one pair of sixes rolled in 2012 was somehow “proof” that severe drought is more likely now than it was in the past. This guy must have attended the Michael Mann school of statistical analysis.
Trevor,
Excellent comment.
If you want a true terror video, see here. It would make Krugman’s head explode.
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