Tom Nelson observes some interesting and inconvenient data to rebut The Guardian’s Susanne Goldenberg and Paul Krugman of the New York Times: For warmists trying to convince us that carbon dioxide causes lower US corn yields, an *extremely* inconvenient graph
[Warmist Suzanne Goldenberg] …because of a brutal combination of triple-digit (40C) temperatures and prolonged drought. Scientists see both as evidence of climate change.
The Burning Land – NYTimes.com
[Warmist Paul Krugman] I’ve been searching for something useful to say about the epic heat wave and drought afflicting U.S. agriculture…
Yet with so much of the American political spectrum in fierce denial over the issue, there is no prospect whatsoever of getting action.
But the data says otherwise Ms. Goldenberg and Mr. Krugman. Have a look for yourself, one year, one drought, does not a trend make. But Krugman is relying upon the heated hyperbolic opinion of Joe Romm, so I suppose we can understand how he was taken in.
CARPE DIEM: Corn Yields Have Increased Six Times Since 1940
Roger Pielke Jr. pulls out his handy BS button for this one, citing Krugmans passage:
In yesterday’s NYT Paul Krugman writes:
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[R]eally extreme high temperatures, the kind of thing that used to happen very rarely in the past, have now become fairly common. Think of it as rolling two sixes, which happens less than 3 percent of the time with fair dice, but more often when the dice are loaded. And this rising incidence of extreme events, reflecting the same variability of weather that can obscure the reality of climate change, means that the costs of climate change aren’t a distant prospect, decades in the future. On the contrary, they’re already here, even though so far global temperatures are only about 1 degree Fahrenheit above their historical norms, a small fraction of their eventual rise if we don’t act.
The great Midwestern drought is a case in point. This drought has already sent corn prices to their highest level ever. If it continues, it could cause a global food crisis, because the U.S. heartland is still the world’s breadbasket. And yes, the drought is linked to climate change: such events have happened before, but they’re much more likely now than they used to be.
Now, maybe this drought will break in time to avoid the worst. But there will be more events like this. Joseph Romm, the influential climate blogger, has coined the term “Dust-Bowlification” for the prospect of extended periods of extreme drought in formerly productive agricultural areas. He has been arguing for some time that this phenomenon, with its disastrous effects on food security, is likely to be the leading edge of damage from climate change, taking place over the next few decades; the drowning of Florida by rising sea levels and all that will come later.
And here it comes.
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Pielke Jr. writes:
Instead of looking at the musings of a “climate blogger” (as entertaining as that may be) like Krugman does, let’s instead look at scientific research that has examined trends in US droughts. A crazy idea, I know. Fortunately, scientists have examined empirical data on the frequency and severity of drought on climate time scales.
Here is Andreadis and Lettenmaier (2006) in GRL (PDF):
[D]roughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, less severe, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century.
Read Pielke Jr.’s full post here, and don’t forget to get a look at his great book, The Climate Fix
Krugman should be ashamed of himself, since even Adam Smith studied the relation between sun spots and wheat prices, as did William Herschel.
Here’s a good paper on it, showing that wheat is cheaper when the climate is hotter, based on sunspots numbers.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0312/0312244.pdf
However, the paper predates the discovery that a solar cycle’s sunspot count largely determines the temperatures for the following cycle, not the current one. If the data in the paper above was adjusted to take that into account, I wonder what it would show?
Krugman should be ashamed of himself because no less than Adam Smith studied the relation between sunspots and wheat prices, as did William Herschel, the astronomer who discovered Uranus. Warmth causes cheaper wheat prices.
Here’s a very good paper on the subject: http://arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0312/0312244.pdf
The paper was written before the recent discovery that sunspot counts are a predictor of temperatures during the following cycle instead of the current one, and I wonder what the data in the above paper would show if that adjustment was made?
The irony is that Krugman is on record as saying that disasters constitute macroeconomic stimulus since they create jobs when one must rebuild. If Krugman could consistently apply logic (albeit consistently wrongly, he would call for us to increase our emissions to cause more warming to cause more disasters and thus stimulate the economy. He does, after all, subscribe firmly to the idea that all manner of disasters will be brought on by AGW.
We had this sort of drivel flowing freely a few years ago in Australia , particularly during the latter stages of our recent drought ( which has ended with two years of deluge).
Our Bureau of Meteorology publishes data which clearly shows about a 20% UPTREND in rainfall over the past century or so with only two small areas showing a downtrend. Our warmista’s were predicting our water supplies running dry, State Governments were spooked into building desalination plants and all the usual madness unfolded.
And now? Dams 80 to 100% full, devastating floods and desal plants sitting idle ( but being paid for by us through our water rates/charges of course).
Be patient America. Victory will be like summer rain on a tin roof after a long dry spell.
Has any people died during this drought? I can quote recorded references to droughts where hundreds and some times thousands of people have died. I also have historical references to droughts that have effected millions through starvation, disease and famine.
I’ve been compiling over the past year historical records on past weather extremes
and other interesting meteorological events and related accidents etc… looking through all this data and examining individual cases closer it’s striking how often when there is a report today of drought or flood nine times out of ten there will be a recorded reference to a flood, drought or other natural disaster in the same location sometimes accompanied with high fatalities.
I’ve also noted proponents of man made global climate change have no clue that there is a difference between natural disasters and climate, The obvious mistake that stands out is their unscientific so-called educational campaign for example “climate Impacts” which is disrespectfully aimed to distort the facts and influence young minds and promote/Impose their opinions in an attempt to gain support and as more support means more funding why let facts stand in the way.
Here is the so-called educational campaign Curriculum. Global Warming: Early Warning Signs
In activity 3 they encourage students to research and infer a link between disease and man made climate change, This is wrong on so many levels. First of all, when there has been a natural disaster such as months of low rain fall, in the past it has been accompanied by famine, and with the famine out breaks of disease, the spread of disease among people is affected by the close proximity of people to fatalities living under poor unhygienic conditions. But what our new global climate educators wish our students to believe is a direct “relationship between hosts” i.e Anthropogenic global warming/climate change causes a wide variety of natural weather events world wide therefor death and the spread of disease must be caused by global warming climate change.
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists. “Global Warming Early Warning Signs”.
“Activity 3: Climate Change and Disease. Students research the relationship between hosts, parasites, and vectors for common vector-borne diseases and evaluate how climate change could affect the spread of disease.” ttp://www.climatehotmap.org/curriculum/index.html
And website production credits goto:
Environmental Defense
Natural Resources Defense Council
Sierra Club
Union of Concerned Scientists
U.S. Public Interest Research Group
World Resources Institute
World Wildlife Fund
Meh. We could liven the action by postulating chemtrails have sterilized the soil too, but we will not see any lessening in the propaganda flogging tax payable to the UN despite the untenable scientific position of claiming climate prediction as being more reliable than weather forecasting.
http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2010/06/27/18115/
One excellent example would be the fate of Denis Rancourt in Ottawa, Canada – though he triggered two separate instances of violating ‘political correctness’. http://opitslinkfest.blogspot.ca/2012/07/20-july-fraud-and-reputation-climate.html
So we can have corrective notices until the cows come home – as long as they are not flogged to the public.
http://weeklyintercept.blogspot.com/2012/07/ipcc-admits-its-past-reports-were-junk.html
It’s simple. Since its origins, the IPCC has been open and explicit about seeking to generate a ‘scientific consensus’ around climate change and especially about the role of humans in climate change http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2010/06/27/18115/ I cannot for the life of me figure out why the bureaucrats at a UN agency should forward a view that they should be paid trillions annually in a tax on the use of fire….globally.
Which is why the likes of this are ignored
http://weeklyintercept.blogspot.com/2012/07/ipcc-admits-its-past-reports-were-junk.html
Academics are targeted. For Example, Denis Rancourt allegedly managed to offend the sensibilities of two ‘Denier’ political correctness memes simultaneously : http://opitslinkfest.blogspot.ca/2012/07/20-july-fraud-and-reputation-climate.html
As for GM foods – they are a product of the same company responsible for Agent Orange. Kindly Search on the parameters ‘Rumsfeld Monsanto’. At opitslinkfest.blogspot.com you should find references to ‘The Real Winner in Iraq was Monsanto’ at the Panelist on past posts on Corporate Farming ( the blog is Searchable and has a Topical Index both ) and The World According to Monsanto on YouTube ( some wag linked the video URL to Monsanto’s home website at one point )
GMOs, a 12 year olds urgent warning to other kids
The article’s comments are full of the expected demonizing of fossil fuels and blaming Koch and Exxon. Since around 97% of the world’s oil production is State-owned and controlled, we are supposed to believe these same countries representatives participated in the IPCC to find ways they could shut-down their main sources of income? Is Norway, Brazil, Saudia Arabia, Nigeria, Canada, Mexico, just to name a few, going to get out of the oil business?
A simple research of weather events of 1988 and prior, would show some of the most extreme weather events happened at the CO2 “safe” level. Unless, it can be shown, weather has gotten worse since then, the entire CO2 debate is moot. The opposite seems to have occurred, severe events are declining.
Krugman’s readers are also big readers of scientific journals. “For a broader understanding, read this Rolling stone article on the authoritative scientific analysis of the almost imminent catastrophe confronting humankind. Warning: It’s worse than you thought.” …..
It’s my understanding that the AGW prediction of ‘more droughts’ doesn’t result from predicting less rain, but from predictions of increased evaporation and the predicted poleward migration of climate zones.
Without evidence of either of these 2 things, the current US drought isn’t an AGW predicted drought. It’s just ordinary drought.
Krugman is the next Kim Jong Il. He’s an expert on everything. Crop yields, golf, alien invasions, climate. You name it, he’s an expert. I bet he too hit 11 holes in one the first time he tried golf.
…and unfortunately I have always lost my voice after eating watermelon …~ Jim
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Jim, have you tried cutting the watermelon into smaller pieces before swallowing it?
j/k….
Confounding the role of untimely high temperatures on corn, drought & rises in CO2 seems to be what article writers did. Prolonged excessively high temperature at a crucial corn time phase is related to total corn crop productivity, soil moisture always has it’s place & CO2 needs parsing out. Meanwhile, today 23 July 2012 Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service released state forecast for a record-high corn harvest, thanks to extra acreage planted out.
In terms of CO2: the fact that corn is a C4 crop & not a C3 photosynthesizer makes a difference. Experiments in free air concentration enrichment (FACE) show C4 maize does not respond to elevated 550ppm CO2 with greater productivity than current field 376ppm CO2 levels. However once drought conditions come into play then 550ppm CO2 growing maize is decidedly better off than when same type of maize was grown at 376ppm CO2 in FACE drought conditions.(details in http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2690454/ ).
I haven’t tried watermelon in decades, Otter; I’m really not that fond of it and not for the reason it takes away my voice … not a fan of melons in general …
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Taking up where Ga -er- someone else left off? What kind of con- spir- acy based ‘theories’ (and I use the term loosely as in n*tty) are we going to find as a result of the ‘recommended’ websearch?
BTW no need to answer; this is a purely rhetorical question …
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That’s more b.s. Jim If I suggest you do your own research without spoon feeding particulars then you will get a feel for the topic which is not likely to be conveyed with particular links. And since mainstream media invariably dominate search returns you should have little to fear that I am the one prevaricating. You, OTOH, have no such excuse.
cdquarles: “Interesting. One wonders how much redefinition of terms is going on around here.”
The depends on how you define redefinition.
Third hit comes back to Daily KOS webpage; 4th hit is a rense.com webpage … this tells me all I need to know and who sourced this kind of b.s.
Thanks “old fart et”. Forewarned is forearmed; it’s nice to keep abreast of the latest con spir acy theories. You know what I say on Free Republic: “Con spir acy theories are the tools of the weak-minded.”
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Krugman is one of the creators of the current worldwide disaster. He desperately needs something else, which looks even worse at least in his own view.
Kelvin Vaughan says | July 23, 2012 at 9:03 am :
In the UK drought used to mean 14 days without any rain. Now it means water shortage.
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… caused by poor planning ( no construction of storage dams ) and poor maintenance ( failure of the distribution infrastructure ). How did that government anticipate it was going to provide water for its explosion in population ?
Never mind, here in Australia we suffer the same political expediencies of the leftists in power.
What’s sad is that I, a college dropout mailman (as well as many more people here, vastly more educated than I) grasp the basic common sense, as well as the basic science involved, better than my much better Nobel Laureate, Dr. Krugman. On matters scientific or economic. What a world we live in, interesting times indeed. I give my thanks for Anthony and others for educating we laymen.
George E. Smith; says:
July 23, 2012 at 11:50 am
George, your use of commas is very strange.
[George’s punctuation is a sign of his brilliance. Really. Serious. ~dbs, mod.]
A significant additional factor on the Midwest drought this year was the very low subsoil moisture available in carryover from last year. In many areas, you can dig down six feet and not not make a ball with the dirt. It is actually amazing that any of the corn plants are still alive given the conditions of the last three weeks in most of Iowa, and the plants are using a mechanism to abort some kernels in order to save others.
We have finally had several consecutive days in excess of 100 degrees, a fairly common occurrence in the late 50s and early 60s.
At least you have to give little Paul Krugman credit for being consistent. He is at least as good at being a climate scientist as he is an economist.
“Conspiracy theories are the tools of the weak-minded.”
And saying that is disinformation and pejorative both. I am surprised at the Daily Kos reference. Markos is adamantly warmist to the point of banning commenters promoting ‘dissent’ on the topic of AGW, defending the concept of consencus science with ardour.
But if you want proof I am conspiracy minded as explaining media, then one would have to go no further than ‘Leading to War’, the movie about the Bush/Blair WMD hysteria fed to Congress and the world as justification for the invasion of Iraq.
I’ll add to that with the outing of agent Valerie Plame/Wilson, head of the CIA nuclear threat desk for the Middle East receiving intel from the blown Brewster Jennings network, as performed by Scooter Libby of Dick Cheney’s office who was jailed for that operation. This was necessary to preserve spun and fabricated intel about the danger of yellowcake importation from Nigeria…when there was lots in Iraq from which to make fertilizer.
Conspiracy theorist. I wish. http://opitslinkfest.blogspot.com/2010/04/politics-of-perception-foreign-policy.html http://opitslinkfest.blogspot.com/2009/07/perception-alteration.html
And is this off topic ? Not when you dig into energy politics….and Big Oil.
Streetcred You are likely unaware of hydraulic warfare and its likelihood of being of being neither well covered nor understood. International Rivers first sparked my interest with their PDF of concrete in the Himalayas. I started collecting articles and soon was noting business interests acting in a common fashion in http://my.opera.com/oldephartte/blog/27-feb-end-of-an-era which was included in the more comprehensive http://opitslinkfest.blogspot.ca/2009/07/water-wealth-power.html
If you’re against genetically modified foods but eat vegetables and fruits grown from cross-bred hybrid seed, I think that makes you a bit of a hypocrite. Hybridization is a high level form of genetic manipulation which has been used for thousands of years, mostly on food crops.
Plant geneticists are working now on plants that can produce fertile diploid seeds without being pollinated. Unfortunately most of the naturally occurring ones are weeds like dandelions. The research goal is to be able to produce true-breeding hybrid food plants so that after the initial hybridization, seed for the next generation can be grown the same as any non-hybrid.