A picture is worth a thousand words:
It isn’t global.
This is weather, not climate. It is caused by a persistent blocking high pressure pattern. In a day or two, that red splotch over the eastern USA will be gone.
Image from Dr. Ryan N. Maue of WeatherBELL
h/t to Joe Bastardi
UPDATE: Dr. Roy Spencer puts it in perspective
June 2012 U.S. Temperatures: Not That Remarkable
July 6th, 2012
I know that many journalists who lived through the recent heat wave in the East think the event somehow validates global warming theory, but I’m sorry: It’s summer. Heat waves happen. Sure, many high temperature records were broken, but records are always being broken.
And the strong thunderstorms that caused widespread power outages? Ditto.
Regarding the “thousands” of broken records, there are not that many high-quality weather observing stations that (1) operated since the record warm years in the 1930s, and (2) have not been influenced by urban heat island effects, so it’s not at all obvious that the heat wave was unprecedented. Even if it was the worst in the last century for the Eastern U.S. (before which we can’t really say anything), there is no way to know if it was mostly human-caused or natural, anyway.
“But, Roy, the heat wave is consistent with climate model predictions!”. Yeah, well, it’s also consistent with natural weather variability. So, take your pick.
For the whole U.S. in June, average temperatures were not that remarkable. Here are the last 40 years from my population-adjusted surface temperature dataset, and NOAA’s USHCN (v2) dataset (both based upon 5 deg lat/lon grid averages; click for large version):
Certainly the U.S drought conditions cannot compare to the 1930s.
I really tire of the media frenzy which occurs when disaster strikes…I’ve stopped answering media inquiries. Mother Nature is dangerous, folks. And with the internet and cell phones, now every time there is a severe weather event, everyone in the world knows about it within the hour. In the 1800s, it might be months before one part of the country found out about disaster in another part of the country. Sheesh.
Just curious- what does the map header mean when it says “Global Anomaly 0.001 C”
Is that a sum of the over and under presented on the map and displayed in different colors?
NYT has an article on the heat wave “Unrelenting Heat Wave Bakes All in Its Reach”.
Here is a nice clip:
Around the region, corn and soybean crops shriveled from the heat and the lack of rain. In the hardest hit and hottest areas, some farmers said they had already given up on their cornfields for the season. Others say much is riding on whether the heat subsides and rain arrives in the next few days, a crucial period for corn pollination.
“There’s vast uncertainty,” said Bob Nielsen, a professor of agronomy at Purdue. “There aren’t many years, though, when I get this pessimistic.”
Meteorologists said the recent hot streak, though not unprecedented, was unusual because of how early in the summer it struck and its duration.
The prolonged heat has been the result of a high pressure system that has set up over the central and Eastern parts of the country, said Katie Garrett, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. The system has been so strong that it has kept storm systems from moving in and has prevented cold fronts that usually provide relief from sweeping through. At the same time, moisture and heat from the Gulf of Mexico have been blowing into the Upper Midwest, Ms. Garrett said.
Hmmm, I guess we need to add agronomists to the list of co-conspirators along with meteorologists and climate scientists. Probably botanists, biologists, zoologists, oceanographers, microbiologists, astrophysicists, heat seeking missile designers… Wow, this list is getting pretty long.
KR said (July 7, 2012 at 11:26 am
“…So no, this particular heat wave cannot be directly attributed to climate change. But we’re certainly going to see a lot more more of them, with fewer cold events, as climate averages change and the weather dice get loaded more and more heavily to the hot side…”
As I’ve said before, those who forget extreme weather events in the past are doomed to state all current weather extremes are unprecidented.
If heat waves are going to get longer over time, then why is it, more than 89 years later, there is still one extreme heat wave that remains unbroken – the one in Marble Bar, Australia.
The town set a world record of most consecutive days of maximum temperatures of 37.8 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) or more, during a period of 160 such days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.
If their “climate” is getting worse, if their averages are rising at tenths of a degree per decade, why hasn’t this record been exceeded or beaten? Weather or climate?
pinetree3, its a one day map, the gray colors are warming areas too, and the large hot areas where people live are much hotter than the cold areas in Antarctica etc.
Of course, we could say that the “real weather information” is being hidden by a collusion of weather people and meteorologists, as suggested in a comment by Wade earlier… except he somehow believes that weather data is controlled by James Hansen and Michael Mann — geez Wade, we ain’t talkin about tree rings or latewood density here in this post! I know you believe that weather data such as jet stream positions and tropospheric pressure (hPa) info is being hidden, but check around. You might just find this information, along with record high temperatures etc. Organizations like newspapers, TV, pilots, Weather channel, and even AW seems to be able to find information on weather.
Here is some help… a site that can give a nice forecast map of the Arctic Region for tomorrow. Click the N.Hemi option and select 500 hPa. You will see a nice map showing an Arctic Dipole forecast for tomorrow (HP over the Canadian Archipelago and LP over the Siberian/Russian side of the Arctic Ocean).
Enjoy.
From the looks of the map to save themselves East coast iberals and Leftists lshould move to India, please.
Can we please stop the statement that 95-96-97% of the scientist support the AGW theory. That lie has been thouroughly debunked for years.
Two surveys have purported to show that 97% of climate scientists supported the “consensus”. However, one survey was based on the views of just 77 scientists, far too small a sample to be scientific, and the proposition to which 75 of the 77 assented was merely to the effect that there has been warming since 1950.
The other paper did not state explicitly what question the scientists were asked and did not explain how they had been selected to remove bias. Evidentially, it was valueless. Yet that has not prevented the usual suspects from saying – falsely – that the “consensus” of 97% of all climate scientists is that manmade global warming is potentially catastrophic.
I have to agree with Paul K2 that something weird is happening with the weather. It appears to be melting people’s brains for the first time in history.
People have memories that tend to blur the past, not remembering it as harshly and realistically as it was. So, the sweat trickling down their armpits right now, is far more poignant than the same sweaty armpits in 1998. It is, frankly, the same softening of reality that makes us women look forward to having multiple children… we simply cannot recall the reality sharply enough to remind us of what it was like. A sleepless night five years ago is softly nostalgic, compared to a sleepless night occurring right now. It’s a function of being human. Cold kills more than heat does. We can dissipate heat much better than we can create it within our own bodies. Given the choice of a desert summer with adequate water, food and a shelter (but no fan or a/c), or an arctic winter with the same (and no external heat), which would most of us choose to survive?
Missed the link in my last comment to the site showing weather forecasts for the N. Hemi.
Select N. Hemi option and 500 hPa and see forecasts for 48h 72h etc.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
Paul K2;
You might just find this information, along with record high temperatures etc. Organizations like newspapers, TV, pilots, Weather channel, and even AW seems to be able to find information on weather.>>>>
But that’s the thing Paul. When we consider the historical records, what we find is that there’s pretty much nothing special about what it going on right now.
Neither KR nor Mr B have responded to my point about CO2 being logarithmic, nothing but crickets chirping on that one. Apologies, should have included you in the list. Same question. Why does no one respond to that point?
Paul K2;
Historical record: Thriving Viking colonies with productive agriculture in Greenland hundreds of years ago. Explain.
Archeological Record: Receding glaciers in Canada’s north have recently exposed hunting camps that are hundreds, perhaps thousands of years old. Explain.
Geological Record; CO2 has been, millions of years ago, many, many, many times higher concentration in the atmosphere than it is now, but temps were lower. Explain.
In the end, there is a simple test. See where temps are in 20-30 after the PDO/AMO cold cycles can co-incide. Use objective satellite guidance. Since earths temps the last 15 years have really not gone anywhere, one can easily argue that the earth reached the equilibrium of both the warm cycles of the PDO and AMO can easily explain and so we simply test the theory.
Since the IPCC disaster scenario is busting and the co2 keeps rising,
http://clivebest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/overlayco2.png
a 20-30 year test of basic climate cycle theory is reasonable. Anyone disputing that we shouldn’t allow the test, without destroying the chance for mankind to advance,, given the facts, is not.
“It is caused by a persistent blocking high pressure pattern”
Here we go again.
Wasn’t that the same weather pattern that brought that Heatwave to Russia back in 2010. The Warmist Alarmists were going gaga over and blaming that on AGW/CC hysteria aswell?
We’re getting all the hype here in NZ on the US Heatwave. Going on about 35C Temps in Washington DC. I thought the record for Washington DC was 41C set back in the 1930s/40s?
By the way I have 2 questions for my detractors. 1) Is there any thing that can happen that would convince you your ideas are wrong ( for instance, in spite of the factual disconnect from co2 and temp, you deny that). So what do we need to see.. lets say a fall of .1C next 10 years, is that anything? and 2) Just what answer DONT YOU OWN? Is everything that happens a sign you are correct? For instance, if temps were rising along the lines of your forecast, than that would be very troubling to me with my position . but they are not. How come it doesnt matter to you, that the very forecast you used to start pushing all this down the throat of people is busting and busting badly and I see no reason for why any kind of rise that will even make it close will resume. In fact quite the opposite. You say its warmer than it was, true, but partly because it was so cold. But no matter what, ITS NO WHERE NEAR WHAT YOU FORECASTED
We hear one excuse after another. We hear one scare tactic after another yet the forecasts disappear and you arent accountable. Arctic Ice? Laughable since your crew promoted an ice free arctic in 2012. You busted much more severely than anyone on our side of the aisle. You even twist what people say. I said we would return to the normal level of the late 70s by 2030, that was twisted to a forecast for a year after I said it ( 2009) and southern hemisphere sea ice WHICH OVERALL HAS BEEN RISING WOULD FALL BACK TO WHERE IT WAS. There is a simple explanation. Warm PDO/AMO have colder water around the southern ice cap, hence the increase, while the same cycle warms the northern hemisphere and the combination of the land locked ice cap surrounded by warmth and warm water attacking underneath melts ice. Much more plausible that the nonsense spouted about co2. But how do you get off making a forecast that is a far worst bust, and then saying what you are saying, especially in light of the the southern hemisphere sea ice, which you never bring up.
Tornadoe’s: what the heck happened to another year of global warming tornadoes, That fell apart as was forecasted using a method that had nothing to do with co2. you had to shut your mouth till you got a heat wave in less than 2% of the planet and severe weather event that many of your ilk didnt even know existed ( Derecho). And your hurricane ideas are absurd, Of course you are waiting for them to return ( SO am I) , I am puzzled how the east coast has gotten off scott free almost given the pattern as I have been saying for 5 years now was going back to the 1950s, with the flip of the pdo. anyone notice how close the summers are, or the western N America, and far east winters. But none of that has anything to do with co2. It has to do with the flip of the pdo. So we get the Mckibbens and Sullens yelling about Irene, the Desslers and Norths about Texas drought as if they never looked at the weather in the 1950s. And of course the all knowing POTUS using drought in Texas to say its global warming, when if one looks at the time the earths temp actually was rising due to the warm pdo, TEXAS PRECIP WAS ABOVE NORMAL Its when it turns colder globally, it dries in the south ( see 1950s)
I am amazed that no one in the msm has the guts to actually take these people up and question them as to exactly what they really know. Instead its hit and run,, take any given event, dont research it and run with it. Imagine what else is going on in other aspects of life
In the end its a simple test. The world is in far more danger in the next 20 years from things like economic and political strife, partly brought on by the fact that people with this agenda are trying to handcufff the globes progress with failed ideas on social manipulation mixed with
environmentalism that is based on ideology. That is the problem. I suspect many of you that actually do look understand that this is mainly cyclical and there is nothing that can be done except to accept and adept. And while you are at , the cold option carries more weight than warm and you will see that become clearer even to the most blind among you in the coming years,
NoteL should be accept and adapt, of course I’ll get hammered on that
Yeah – It’s hot! But it’s a wry heat…
MtK
http://youtu.be/tVEPvXBEOSE
TV Report from drought stricken Texas (tree die-off from last year’s drought):
Business is booming in Texas, and not just the oil and gas business. Tree trimmers are raking in the bucks after last year’s drought killed an estimated 500 million trees.
“I’ve been so swamped, we’ve had to call in reinforcements” from other states, arborist Glen Jennings told NBCDFW.com.
The Texas Forest Service, which estimates 5.6 million trees died in urban areas, urged homeowners to be pro-active about removing dead trees — before they land on neighboring property.
“Be aware that your tree could fall onto someone else’s property,” service official Jim Rooni said in a statement Thursday. “he rules vary from place to place, but generally the owner of the tree is responsible. Bottom line: You could be liable.”
Jennings was stunned by the amount of dead trees across the state.
“I, personally, have never been in the middle of something like this before,” he said. “Small droughts, yeah, but statewide?”
Maybe we need to add arborists to the list of co-conspirators identified by anti-AGW special interest groups, along with climate scientists, meteorologists, agronomists, etcetera…
At what point does the conspiracy theory against scientists become ludicrous?
P.S. And Joe Bastardi just leveled a tirade against mainstream news media… they must be in this massive conspiracy as well?
It’s not about *this* extreme, its about the recurrence of the collective basket of extremes
Joseph Adam-Smith says:
July 7, 2012 at 11:32 am
I really do wish we could have Global Warming in the UK. The weather is cold and, to put it mildly, wet!
Rainfall in England in June was 277% of “normal” for the month, defined as the 1971-2000 average.
Doug Eaton says:
July 7, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Blaming the Eastern U.S. heat wave on global warming is just as follyish (?) (okay, foolish) as blaming the cooling wave in the UK right now on global cooling.
But that won’t stop them.
I haven’t seen anyone claim that the poor,very wet weather in UK is “global cooling.” Please provide reference.
What I am pointing out is that a hotter than average spell of weather for a couple of weeks in Eastern US is not “global.” Other parts of “global” are having cooler (than average) weather. The point being that is is all WEATHER, not climate.
Mr. B. says
July 7, 2012 at 6:48 pm
“The IPCC and the National Academy of Science believe global warming is real and directly related to human activity. Over 95% of Scientist worldwide believe global warming is real and directly related to human activity. If you don’t want to believe it you don’t have to. But I for one am more willing to listen to the conclusions of people who have [devoted their education, time, study and energy to this issue than to some guy with a blog] made a career and very nice living out of perpetuating the scam…”
There. That’s what you meant to say.
The climate scientists that I have been reading are all reluctant to attribute any isolated spell of anomalously warm weather to global warming. They say, over and over again, that global warming is manifested by warming TRENDS that are GLOBAL in extent. The current heat wave in the US, by itself, is neither of these.
But they also say that the current heat wave could be part of a trend, attributable to global changes in climate. They will, no doubt, be studying this question closely.
In the meanwhile, for the past several years, worldwide, there have been twice as many record high temperatures recorded as record lows. Looks like a global trend to me.
And I would add that for years after we bought our house in 1991, the rhododendron by our front door bloomed in mid-June. For the past 5 or 6 years, it has been blooming in the third or fourth week in May — as have the rhododendrons throughout our neighborhood. A small isolated observation, no doubt scientifically worthless ….
For Reference: Here is documentary style video presenting a theory that seems to explain both long-term and short-term climate change as a result of extra-terrestrial influences, both solar and galactic. It is important to note that clouds serve as indicators of ongoing condensing convective activity–a primary form of heat transfer from the surface of the planet.
Svensmark: The Cloud Mystery
“Uploaded by rwesser1 on Jul 24, 2011”
108 likes, 9 dislikes; 8,812 Views; 62:46 min
Henrik Svensmark’s documentary on climate change and cosmic rays.
Well, here in the UK we’re having one of the worst springs/summers I can remember. March was unseasonably warm; April was the wettest ever; May started likewise for 3 weeks, then we had a mini-heat wave for 10 days. June has been very wet and only a day or so above 21C. July has started very wet and cool also.
That’s on the back of three winters with far more snow than average and much colder than average in at least one month also.
No sign of global warming here in the UK.
Marian
“It is caused by a persistent blocking high pressure pattern”
Here we go again….
Yep, pay attention to descriptions of weather events that include that word ‘blocking’. It is the description that tags what looks like a possible Global Warming phenomenon. And one that till recently hadn’t been appreciated that well. Possibly a disconnect between the Meteorologists and the Climatologists.
A big factor in weather patterns are the Polar Jet Streams. Relatively high speed and high altitude eastward travelling air flows, they act as barriers, dividing climate zones because weather systems can’t easily cross them. So in the northern hemisphere, this tends to divide the colder polar weather patterns from the warmer mid latitude weather. But the jet streams don’t just travel across at one latitude. They meander north & south. When it meanders south, colder air from the arctic can penetrate southwards – colder weather. When it meanders north, warmer air from lower latitudes can penetrate north – warmer weather.
And if the meandering of the jet-stream happens to freeze in place for a period, which it does from time to time, then whatever type of weather is happening nearby tends to intensify – warm gets warmer or cold gets colder. This is what happened in western Russia in 2010. Warmer air from the Mediterranean was able to keep moving northwards because the Jet Stream had ‘locked up’ for a time. Our weather, no matter where in the world you live, is best when it cycles frequently between cooling and warming influences. Too much of any factor is bad.
So what is happening to the Jet-Stream? Preliminary research (this is still an emerging field of study) is suggesting that the North Polar Jet Stream is slowing. It is meandering further north & south. And it is becoming more prone to ‘locking up’ for periods. All of which isn’t good news; that will definitely lead to more extreme weather events in the regions influenced by it. More snowstorms and rain if you are north of it, more heatwaves, drought and fires if you are south of it.
The recent intense thunderstorm activity in a band across from Chicago to Washington DC, a phenomenon called a Derecho, may have occured because of this. A large warm air mass moves north from the regions like Colorado where the fires are happening. This comes up against the Jet Stream which forms a barrier to it’s further northward movement. All that energy then starts to spill out sideways, following the normal pattern of air movement eastwards. And thunderstorms start plowing eastwards towards Washington DC.
So, what is Climate Change doing to this pattern? The strength of the Jet Stream is driven by how large the temperature difference is between the equatorial latitudes and the poles. This temperature gradient drives an energy flow towards the poles. And one of the major places this energy ends up is in the JetStream.
So as Global Warming progreses, the northen polar region is warming faster than the tropics. So the temperature difference between these two regions is dropping. With the result that the strength of the Jet Stream is dropping. More meandering. More frequent ‘lock-ups’. And so more frequent occurances of extreme weather events.
AGW predicts more extreme weather. And this looks like a significant mechanism that drives that. The temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics declines. The Jet Stream slows and meanders more. And the weather systems bounded by the Jet Stream become more intense.
So how can the US be suffering heatwaves while the UK is seeing a very wet summer? They are on opposite sides of a slower, lazier Jet Stream
Why aren’t we seeing this down here in the southern hemisphere? The Southern Polar Jet Stream typically runs further south of us here in Australia, New Zealand, Southern Africa. The Southern Hemisphere has far more ocean than land that tends to moderate weather extremes. The Antarctic isn’t yet seeing the major temperature changes that the Arctic is. So the basic driver of this isn’t there. And if it was happening, it would be happening down in the Southern Ocean where we don’t pay much attention