Science held hostage in climate debate

Garth Paltridge in the Financial review:

The broad theory of man-made global warming is acceptable in the purely qualitative sense. If humans continue to fill the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, there can be little doubt that the average temperature of the world will increase above what it would have been otherwise. The argument about the science is, and always has been, whether the increase would be big enough to be noticed among all the other natural variations of climate. The economic and social argument is whether the increase, even if it were noticeable, would change the overall welfare of mankind for the worse.

Attempts to resolve the arguments are plagued with problems, a lot of which are inherently insoluble. There are many aspects of the behaviour of the natural climate system and of human society that are unpredictable in principle, let alone in practice. But perhaps the biggest of the underlying problems, and it is common to both arguments since it inevitably exists when there is large unpredictability and uncertainty, is the presence of strong forces encouraging public overstatement and a belief in worst-case scenarios.

From the social and economic side of things, one might take much more notice of the global warming scare campaign if it were not so obvious that many of its most vociferous supporters have other agendas. There are those, for instance, who are concerned with preservation of the world’s resources of coal and oil for the benefit of future generations. There are those who, like the former president of France, Jacques Chirac, speaking at a conference on the Kyoto protocol in 2000, look with favour on the possibility of an international decarbonisation regime because it would be a first step to global governance (the president’s actual words were “For the first time, humanity is instituting a genuine instrument of global governance”.) There are those who, like the socialists of the 20th century, see international action as a means to force a redistribution of wealth both within and between the individual nations. There are those who regard the whole business mainly as a path to the sort of influence which, until now, has been wielded only by the major religions. More generally, there are those who, like the politically correct everywhere, are driven by a need for public expression of their own virtue.

Full essay:

http://afr.com/p/lifestyle/review/science_held_hostage_in_climate_Uamwgc7zXEsU6RbQJ5MWIJ#

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Harold Pierce Jr
June 22, 2012 9:14 pm

GP says:
“The broad theory of man-made global warming is acceptable in the purely qualitative sense. If humans continue to fill the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, there can be little doubt that the average temperature of the world will increase above what it would have been otherwise”
This is just flat out wrong! The absorption of all OLR by CO2 occurs within the first 35 meters from the earth’s surface.
NOW EVERODY PAY ATTENTION!!! DO THE FOLLOWING:
1. Google “Climate Change Reexamined”
2. Google returns the link fo the pdf file and the author is Joel M. Kauffman
3. Open the pdf file and go to page 735.
4. Fig. 7 is the IR spectrum of real ambient air for Philadelphia.
5. The net absorbance for the peak at ca 660 wavenumbers is 0.018 for the gas cell with a pathlength of 7 cm. If the cell path lenght was 11 meters, the absorbance would be 2 and 99% of the IR would absorbed. The vibrational energy of the CO2 molecles would be very rapidly themalized by collision with N2 and O2 molecules.
6. The small shoulders have an absorbance of ca 0.004. If the pathlenght of the cell was 35 meters, the absorbance would be 2 and 99% of the IR would be absorbed and thermalized as above.
7. Although there is a strong absorption at 2350 wavenumbers, there is no OLR at this wavelenght.
8. Adding more CO2 would shorten the pathlengh for complete absorption of OLR, but cause little heating of the air.
9. The maximum of the OLR at 298 K is 500 wavenumbers and most of this is absorbed by water vapor.
As warm air rises it undergoes adiabtic cooling, the maximum of the OLR shifts the right of the CO2 peaks at 660 wavenumbers. Most of the OLR is asorbed by OH2.
This spectrum shows that CO2 absobs little OLR as compared to OH2 and consequently can have little or no effect of warming the air.
\

Harold Pierce Jr
June 22, 2012 9:39 pm

There are numerous IR spectra of OLR, but the scale on the Y axis is usually in flux units. The spectrum in Kauffman’s essay is the only one I have found so far that uses absorbance for the Y axis.

Harold Pierce Jr
June 22, 2012 9:43 pm

Kauffmans mentions in the Cem Ed paper that no methane was detected.

Editor
June 22, 2012 10:14 pm

The general public are way ahead of the politicians on this. Soon, surely, the politicians will have to follow (“There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader.” – Alexandre Ledru-Rollin).

Myrrh
June 23, 2012 1:24 am

Harold Pierce Jr says:
June 22, 2012 at 9:14 pm
“As warm air rises it undergoes adiabtic cooling, the maximum of the OLR shifts the right of the CO2 peaks at 660 wavenumbers. Most of the OLR is asorbed by OH2.”
They don’t have warm air rising – they don’t have air. That’s why they don’t have convection, only radiation – radiation in empty space.
What they have is a completely different atmosphere to the real world, they have a different Earth and a different Sun. Unless this is appreciated there will continue to be confusion generated because talking at cross purposes, from different paradigms.
Their Earth is surrounded by empty space not by the heavy voluminous ocean of gas subject to gravity which surrounds our real Earth. Their molecules are not real gas molecules, but ideal gas molecules – so they don’t have gases buoyant in air, because they have no air, they have the imaginary construct volumeless weightless hard dots of nothing ideal gas molecules zipping at great speeds through empty space bouncing off each other in elastic collisions without attraction or repulsion under their own molecular momentum.
So, for example one of their explanations, that their ‘carbon dioxide molecules overcome gravity’ is because their ideal gas molecules are without volume, weight and attraction … They neither realise how ludicrous this is, that they have stripped the molecule of its properties and so physical relationships, processes, but, they use the term ‘gravity’ without any understanding that they don’t have it.
That’s why they claim that carbon dioxide ‘accumulates in the atmosphere building up a blanket’, because they don’t have gravity and they don’t have gravity because they don’t have real molecules, but the imaginary ‘ideal gas in a container’ so their molecules do not rise in air if lighter than air or sink if heavier than air. They don’t have air. They don’t realise they’re talking about a completely different atmosphere, they think this is real world physics. They think this because they have been taught this, it is firmly entrenched in the general education system; put there to promote the agenda of some to support AGW claims. It is the great dumbing down of basic science for the masses.
It’s astonishing, they have created a completely different world by descriptions of an imaginary gas molecule.
Just like they use the term ‘clouds’, but in their atmosphere of empty space clouds can’t form, not least because all clouds are carbonic acid and they have no attraction with their molecules, because their carbon dioxide molecule is too busy zipping at great speeds through empty space bouncing off the other ideal gas molecules of nitrogen and oxygen and so ‘thoroughly mixing’. Likewise wind, they don’t have wind though they use the term, because wind is volumes of air on the move, convection, and their molecules don’t have volume or attraction, etc. etc.
They have a completely different fisics, it is completely imagined, created out of tweaking real world physics. That’s why nothing they say makes sense, because it’s science fiction – and because there is no internal coherence in their fisics, they mix it up as the occasion requires. I do wish more people in real world applied science would appreciate this – because it’s in every aspect of their fisics claims about their fictional world, spread across the different disciplines.
Their tweaks of real physics are clever pastiches, created by taking laws out of context, stripping matter of properties and by giving properties of one thing to another, and, taking old science erroneous thinking and claiming it is still current, as they do with Arrhenius. This is a complete package of tweaks, this really does have to be appreciated if anyone wants to understands why they say the strange things they do. It has been carefully crafted, a whole package of fisics about an imaginary Earth.
For example, here I’ve looked at their empty space ideal gas atmosphere: http://wattsupwiththat.com/test-2/#comment-1007003
Scuse the typos and lack of editing, it never made it into the discussion, somehow got lost. The story link of how I came by this knowledge of what is now taught is in this discussion: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/02/what-can-we-learn-from-the-mauna-loa-co2-curve-2

Brian H
June 23, 2012 2:16 am

On The View From Here, Hilary notes:

Stocker is currently Co-Chair for AR5 WG1; his idea of being “non policy prescriptive” is to declare, during the course of a newspaper interview, that “the planet might be better off if [gas prices] soared to “three to four” times its current level”.
It is worth noting that at the same time Stocker’ and his “task group” recommended that the IPCC “disappear” the [grey literature] flagging rule (because it was “too impractical”), they slipped in another rule to the effect that blogposts and (most) newspaper articles are not acceptable as source material.

My bold.
I’m sure there’s a special dispensation for RC and Desmogblog, of course.

Brian H
June 23, 2012 2:27 am

Greg House says:
June 22, 2012 at 12:48 pm
…CO2 warming the rest of the air directly. This is the most ridiculous notion. Just imagine, how hot CO2 must get to warm the air by 7 degrees (this is the CO2 part according to the AGW concept). Given only 1 of every 2600 air molecules is CO2, each CO2 molecule must get thousands degrees hot. This notion is obviously absurd, but it works with some people, unfortunately.

As a deep-dyed AGW Denialist, I beg you to stop using such irrational argumentation. The heating being postulated is clearly transitional, such that immediately after each CO2 molecule heats up it transfers its thermal energy to some other kind of molecule by collision, and then gets warmed by another IR photon, etc. No “thousands of degrees” required.
There are lots of excellent avenues and arguments for disputing the consensus cartoon model(s); please stop roiling the water with s****d ones.

Greg House
June 23, 2012 7:58 am

Brian H says:
June 23, 2012 at 2:27 am
The heating being postulated is clearly transitional, such that immediately after each CO2 molecule heats up it transfers its thermal energy to some other kind of molecule by collision, and then gets warmed by another IR photon, etc. …No “thousands of degrees” required.
=====================================================
I have already answered that. “Thousands of degrees” is not about a single CO2 molecule, it was meant in case of pure CO2: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/22/science-held-hostage-in-climate-debate/#comment-1015722 .
Of course, I did not make any calculations, people who call themselves climate scientists are welcome to do that. Anyway, it is plausible that if a CO2 molecule has the power to warm other 2600 passive molecules by 7 degrees, the temperature must get thousands degrees high if there are CO2 molecules only. Logically, if it is not possible in the real world, then the notion of (direct) CO2 warming is a complete bull***t.

beng
June 23, 2012 8:36 am

***
E.M.Smith says:
June 22, 2012 at 6:26 pm
IMHO there is little reason to believe that CO2 does ANY warming. It causes increased cooling of the upper atmosphere and convection / evaporation is the driver in the lower atmosphere, so added CO2 might well increase the radiative heat loss.
***
E.M., gotta disagree w/ya. Earth will radiate its heat outward from somewhere. The more it radiates at a colder temp, the better the insulation effect. If CO2 didn’t radiate outward at high altitudes, the outward radiation would come from somewhere else down lower & at a warmer temp. That would increase heat loss & reduce the insulation effect. Just sayin.
And yes, convection bringing relatively warm air (which contains H2O vapor/liquid/ice & CO2) to near the tropopause nullifies the stratified CO2 effect somewhat by “presenting” a warmer radiative surface to space & increasing heat loss. That’s a negative feedback assuming increased temps cause increased convection.

Harold Pierce Jr
June 23, 2012 9:16 am

ATTN: MYRRH
FYI, At one atm pressure, air molecules behave as ideal gas molecules. Deviations from ideal gas behavior occurs at much higher pressures generally above a 100 atmospheres at ambirnt temperature.

wayne
June 23, 2012 9:40 am

Harold Pierce Jr,
I went through your list of steps and that is a good summary of the radiative transfer occurring in the atmosphere. CO2’s effect at this concentration and upward is minimal if even measureable. Good to know there are still some good empirical scientists still engaged in this subject. Thanks, I’ll read the entire paper in detail later.

Myrrh
June 23, 2012 11:12 am

Harold Pierce Jr says:
June 23, 2012 at 9:16 am
ATTN: MYRRH
FYI, At one atm pressure, air molecules behave as ideal gas molecules. Deviations from ideal gas behavior occurs at much higher pressures generally above a 100 atmospheres at ambient temperature.
================
That’s not at all as it is described.
A real gas might behave approximately like an ideal gas at very high temperature and very low pressure. Why? Because at high temperatures and low pressure gases would separate out from each other, becoming more like the ideal which doesn’t have attraction, volume etc., but even then not really. And this certainly does not apply at 1 atm where real gases have real volume and attraction and are subject to real gravity.
Not in the real world. Where in our atmosphere do we actually have ideal gas? Maybe a hydrogen molecule somewhere up there where there is not the pressure we have at the surface.
We have huge convective weather systems in the troposphere because we have real gases – there is an ocean of fluid gas above your head weighing down ONE TON on your shoulders, one stone per square inch. It’s a heavy fluid volume (gases and liquids are fluids). Ideal gas doesn’t have volume or weight, doesn’t have mass.
AGWScience Fiction claims the atmosphere is empty space because it has created a different atmosphere around an imaginary Earth. Created it out of descriptions of ideal gas. It’s ludicrous.
And just as it does with CO2 it b*ggers up the history in the science of this – it excludes van der Waals.
See my previous link: For example, here I’ve looked at their empty space ideal gas atmosphere: http://wattsupwiththat.com/test-2/#comment-1007003
You have convection so you have no winds because your ideal gases don’t have volume, there is nothing to heat up or cool down, that expands and rises and condenses and sinks because lighter or heavier than air, other volumes of gas staying together in the real atmosphere under gravity.
Because ideal gases zipping through empty space do not have volume, weight, attraction, are not subject to gravity is the reason you do not have sound in your atmosphere. There is no sound in empty space!
For sound you need real gases with volume subject to gravity…
Here, understand what our real Earth’s atmosphere is like and why we have sound: http://www.mediacollege.com/audio/01/sound-waves.html
“Note that air molecules do not actually travel from the loudspeaker to the ear (that would be wind). Each individual molecule only moves a small distance as it vibrates, but it causes the adjacent molecules to vibrate in a rippling effect all the way to the ear.”
Each individual molecule only moves a small distance, because it has real volume and weight because of gravity.
Real molecules are not ‘zipping through the empty atmosphere at ideal gas speeds bouncing off each other and thoroughly mixing’ because our gases are not ideal and because our atmosphere is not the imaginary empty space of ideal gas in a container in a lab, but full of real heavy gas, AIR.
You have no weather.
Your clouds appear by magic.
You have no water cycle.
Your gases are not bouyant in air because you have no air.
Your ideal gases overcome gravity under their own molecular energy…
..because you have no gravity.
You’ve got nothing to breathe because your ideal gases have long gone zipping out into space because you have no gravity because your ideal gases have no mass. The plants and so the animals have all died because carbon dioxide couldn’t get back to the surface and there are no carbon life forms..
..you only imagine you’re existing, because in your ideal gas world existence isn’t possible.

David Cage
June 23, 2012 11:35 am

If humans continue to fill the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, there can be little doubt that the average temperature of the world will increase above what it would have been otherwise.
This is not the case if you meet those in other spheres of science that have gone almost totally unheard in the grants rush to supply the climate change cult. There is a far stronger case for there being a natural creation and usage system that is fundamentally stable but for short term blips because as supply of any of the relevant gases increases so does the ability of the demanding systems to grow as a result.
We created a huge short term blip by reducing the man made input from SO2 from the acid rain legislation which the system took time to adapt to. Man’s input is always compared to the quantity of these gases in the air, which is the residual and not the amount created by nature so the computer models are at even the most basic level utterly flawed.

Paul Vaughan
June 23, 2012 1:10 pm

Bad decisions (naive &/or deceptive – doesn’t matter which – ugly & unacceptable either way) were made ~1976 by solar & climate scientists:
http://judithcurry.com/2012/06/22/science-held-hostage-in-climate-debate/#comment-212139 (new graph summarizing at a coarse scale ingredients of Piers Corbyn’s methods: solar coronal holes & terrestrial circulation)
Exactly where conventional assumptions started going severely wrong:
http://i45.tinypic.com/2nbc3dw.png (that’s a solar variable)
The Tsonis framework is more than it appears upon superficial glance.
http://i49.tinypic.com/2jg5tvr.png

Gail Combs
June 23, 2012 1:51 pm

Walter H. Schneider says:
June 22, 2012 at 1:38 pm
……It’s all the fault of man, and nature has nothing to do with it? I did not bother with reading the rest of the article, but it certainly is not very comforting to know that so many of its readers are impressed by it.
____________________________
That the writer is a warmist is a given, that he actually is showing signs of thinking about the corruption of climate science is what we are impressed by. At least he can SEE that “Post-normal Science” is not science at all. That is a starting point. A step in the right direction.

Paul Vaughan
June 23, 2012 2:41 pm

Alert to the community:
QBO data ( http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data ) have been adjusted substantially right around the ~1976 climate shift by the following amounts:
1976 -0.13 -0.44 0.07 0.12 0.08 -0.17 0.15 -0.02 -0.19 -0.39 -0.62 0.09
1977 0.47 -0.83 -0.69 0.06 0.35 0.34 -0.2 0.75 0.37 -0.52 -0.23 0.28
1978 -0.63 -0.47 -0.58 0.78 0.44 0.06 0.19 -0.2 -0.2 -0.13 -0.79 -0.08
Other years show strings of zeros.
Changepoint algorithms APPLIED BLINDLY will do EXACTLY this based on FALSE assumptions that are NOT consistent with observation.
Administrators: Please direct your staff to stop mucking with observations. This is VERY important.

Geoff Sherrington
June 24, 2012 4:58 am

For those who do not know, Garth Paltridge is a senior and highly respected scientist in Australia. Fot those who read his words too literally, contemplate that several years ago he illustrated the start of an article with a column of smoke and discussed the impossibility of modelling the movement of such a column, even with the largest of computers. He’s a deep thinker on atmospheric motion and a host of other relevant matters. Please, do have the courtesy to do a bio on people before you jump to conclusions. The person you criticise might even be more learned than you are, demonstrably so.

Harold Pierce Jr
June 24, 2012 10:28 am

ATTN: MYRRH
You are taking absolute nonsense! Go get a physic or chemisfry text book and look up the sections on gases. .

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