Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Well, after my brief digression to some other topics, I’ve finally been able to get back to the reason that I got the CERES albedo and radiation data in the first place. This was to look at the relationship between the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation imbalance and the surface temperature. Recall that the IPCC says that a change in the TOA radiation of 3.7 W/m2 from a doubling of CO2 will lead to a 3°C ± 1.5°C temperature increase. This 3°C per doubling is called the “climate sensitivity”, and its value is an open question.
Figure 1, on the other hand, shows my results regarding the same question of the climate sensitivity. These reveal nothing like a 3°C temperature rise from a doubling of CO2:
Figure 1. Gridcell-by-gridcell linear trends of the change in surface temperature (∆T) given the change in TOA radiation (∆F). Note that the surface temperature data is gridded on a 5°x5° gridcell, while the CERES TOA radiation data is on a 1°x1° gridcell basis. Graph includes a two-month lag between change in forcing and the change in temperature.
There are a variety of interesting aspects to this particular graph. Let me start by describing how I constructed it.
I began by taking the gridded HadCRUT3 temperature data for the period of the CERES study, Jan 2001 to Oct 2005. The HadCRUT data is on a 5°x5° gridcell, so I first expanded that to 1°x1° gridcells. Then I took the first differences (∆T) by subtracting each month from the succeeding month, to get the monthly change in temperature (∆T) in each gridcell.
Then I compared that ∆T dataset to the change in TOA radiation (∆F), which was constructed from the CERES TOA data. For each gridcell, I took the linear trend of the temperature changes ∆T with respect to ∆F.
Of course, the climate sensitivity results from this procedure are in units of temperature change per forcing change, which is °C per watt/square metre. To convert it to change in temperature per doubling of CO2, I multiplied the results by 3.7 W/m2 per doubling of CO2.
Finally, I needed to adjust for the lag in the system. I did this in two ways. First, I selected the lag which gave the largest temperature change, which was a two month lag. These are the results shown in Figure 1. However, this is a cyclical record of the annual fluctuations, so the equilibrium sensitivity will be underestimated. Per the insights gained from my last analysis, “Time Lags in the Climate System“, the time lag is related to the size of the reduction in temperature swing. A 1-2 month lag in the system indicates a reduction in fluctuation of about 50%. So for my final adjustment, I doubled the indicated climate sensitivity. The results of this are the values shown in Figure 1.
Now, I have long argued, solely from first principles, that climate sensitivity is a non-linear function of temperature. I have said that the sensitivity was greater when it is colder, and that it is smaller when it is warmer. I have held that this relationship was non-linear, with a kink at the temperature range for tropical thunderstorm formation. Finally, I have also argued that in some places in the tropics the climate sensitivity is actually negative, due to the action of tropical clouds and thunderstorms.
To test these claims, I plotted the sensitivity for each gridcell shown in Figure 1 against the annual average temperature for that same gridcell. The results are shown in Figure 2. As far as I know, this is the first observational evidence that shows the actual relationship between climate sensitivity and temperature, and it supports all of my contentions about that relationship.
Figure 2. Scatterplot of gridcell climate sensitivity versus gridcell temperature. Colors indicate the latitude, with red at the tropics, yellow in the temperate zones, and blue at the poles. Gray dashed line shows the linear trend, indicating that the climate sensitivity varies generally as -0.009 * temperature + 0.32 (p-value < 1e-16).
There are some important things about this plot. First, it strongly supports my claim that the climate sensitivity varies inversely with the temperature. Next, it shows that a number of areas of the tropics actually do have negative climate sensitivity. Finally, it shows that the relationship is non-linear with a kink at around the temperature for the formation of tropical thunderstorms. This is important corroborative evidence for my hypothesis that the tropical clouds and thunderstorms act as governors of the tropical temperature and are the source of the negative climate sensitivity.
Let me close by railing a bit against the pernicious nature of averages. Consider Figure 2. Normally, far too many climate scientists would take an average of that data, and come up with some number as the average climate sensitivity. But that number is meaningless, and worse, it gives the impression that the sensitivity is a fixed number. It is nothing of the sort. Not only is it not fixed, it is far, far from linear, and it goes negative at times. It is a dynamic response to changing conditions, not some fixed value.
As a result, when we average it, we come away with entirely the wrong impression of what is happening in that most complex of phenomena, the climate system. While averaging is often useful, it conceals as much as it reveals, and it can lead one to badly erroneous conclusions. That is why so many of my graphs and charts show thousands of individual points, as in Figure 2. Only by seeing the whole picture can we hope to understand the system.
My best to all,
w.
My personal view of the climate is of a bounded pseudo-chaotic system. Based on geologic history it is bounded. Because of the vast numbers of variables interacting it appears chaotic, but unless someone comes up with a solid proof of same, assuming it’s knowable in bounded fashion seems to promise at least some level of understanding. Somehow I can’t get my head around the idea that the cycles we’ve seen in the past are some strange attractor and that any slight perturbation could drive it off into another phase space. If that is the case, then negative feedback or not, we’re already in deep sneakers, and not because of CO2.
Mr. Eschenbach:
Robbie says: June 2, 2012 at 7:23 am in this link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/31/a-longer-look-at-climate-sensitivity/
In this link you asked me for evidence for my claims. I was so kind of presenting my case with backing up what’s in the literature. Basic climate science it was. But when I asked for your evidence in the cloud response (just one of your many claims) for example, because of the Pinatubo eruption, there was only silence. I clearly showed you the opposite of what you were claiming.
I haven’t got any idea why you are avoiding to discuss basic climate science with me and your hypothesis just to see if they fit together. Because in my view they simply don’t fit and make sense. The reason why you react like this towards me can only mean that you are out of arguments or is it that you can’t withstand critique of your work?
That’s the very essence of the scientific discussion. You have to be able to withstand critique. Any serious reviewer of your work will ask tough questions. If you start to react like this your article will be rejected again and again.
It’s maybe exactly the reason why your hypothesis won’t be published in the peer-reviewed literature, because it stands on too much of a shaky ground.
I think it’s a pitty that you reacted like the way you did and Don Monfort was right in his comments about it.
Don Monfort says:June 20, 2012 at 11:19 pm
“…whatever..”
Don is a teenager??! Wow, I didn’t realize ….
You are an immature hothead, Willis. And you would get more than dirty wrestling with me. Carry on, little man.
Robbie
“a doubling of CO2 (causing a 1-1.2°C rise when nothing else changes – every climate scientist agrees on this)”
You believe so fervently in your oversimplified physics that you deny, with the rest of your congregation, any physical evidence to the contrary.
Get off your knees and open your eyes.
Don Monfort says:
June 21, 2012 at 8:34 am
Whatever …
w.
Joe Born says:
June 21, 2012 at 2:49 am (Edit)
That’s my problem as well, which is why I bought Mathematica. Unfortunately, while it is invariably correct, it’s only as good as the guy driving it …
w.
Don’t know anything about warmer at the poles – but recall when Britain in deep freeze couple of years ago they said it was balmy weather for Iceland – all to do with shifting wind systems.
Gosh, “Britain europe freeze iceland warm” got it first time: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2093450/UK-weather-Britain-braced-cold-snap-year-ice-snow-transform-countryside.html
“Temperatures are set to plunge as low as -11C this week as Arctic winds bring in a big freeze with ice and snow expected to blanket the countryside, forecasters said today.
Parts of Britain were waking up yesterday morning to up to two inches of snow as the longest spell of cold weather so far this winter sets in.
The chill is being caused by a high pressure system hanging over Scandinavia and western Russia which is set to push raw, easterly winds towards the UK as the week progresses. It will cause the longest spell of cold weather so far this winter, experts say.”
“Colder than Iceland: Snow covers a track leading to a farm near Wheddon Cross. Daytime temperatures are expected to be barely above freezing in most of England Wednesday and Thursday while Iceland’s capital Reykjavic will be warmer at six degrees Celsius”
Briiain got the tip of it:
“A tractor with a snow plough clears snow off the road near Dulverton on Exmoor, England. The weather in the next few days is definitely looking like being the coldest weather we have seen this winter’ Meanwhile, residents all over the country were bracing themselves for the Siberian weather front heading for Britain.”
“In Europe, the big freeze has killed at least 32 people and many areas have been under emergency measures with schools closed down, roads became impassible and power supplies were cut off.
As temperatures dropped to around minus 20 Celsius, eastern European authorities opened emergency shelters and urged people to be careful and remain indoors.
Ukraine’s Emergency Situations Ministry said 18 people died of hypothermia in recent days and nearly 500 people sought medical help for frostbites and hypothermia in just three days last week.
At least 10 people froze to death in Poland over the weekend as the cold reached minus 26 Celsius”
&
http://www.euronews.com/2012/02/08/iceland-enjoys-unusually-warm-winter-weather/
“As Europe shivers, Iceland is positively sweltering with temperatures of four degrees celsius in the capital on Wednesday.
The sparsely-populated island is enjoying a spell of unusually mild winter weather after a snowy December and January. Nearly ten degrees celsius was recorded in Reykjavik on Monday!
Mild air from the Tropics has headed up to the North Atlantic, meaning Iceland has escaped the big freeze that has got Europe in its grip.
It is still no tropical paradise. But wind and rain seem almost appealing compared to biting sub-zero temperatures.”
Ahh… just noticed the dates, not the big freeze I was recalling of a couple years ago – but this last winter – which for some reason missed us in Ireland. Sorry, must have been this one in winter 2011/2012 where I heard the Iceland warmer because wind change, but, there was hardly any coverage at all of these events on tv. The first big freeze was covered practically 24/7, this time, hmm. I recall wondering at the time why they weren’t showing any footage of this.
Willis, do you think you would see different sensitivities in the “nino” area of the Pacific if you did the same analysis on el Nino periods vs la Nina ones?
jim2 says:
June 22, 2012 at 4:42 pm (Edit)
I would strongly suspect that they would be different. My opinion is that the Nino/Nina alteration is another of the many feedback systems controlling the temperature. As such, I’d expect it to affect the sensitivity.
w.
@WIllis:
Don’t know how I missed this on the first posting… Very well done.
( I notice you also defined “forcing” as used here… Thanks 😉
Your observations on averaging are “Spot on”. I’ve tried making that case too, but not as well as you did.
It’s also very nice to see confirmation of the importance of thunderstorm formation. As places like Alaska can get thunderstorms in summer, it might be interesting to make a similar plot but with “month” identified. If you find that Alaska, for example, behaves rather like the more temperate zone during summer, you get a “sensitivity” that not only changes with latitude, but with season.
On a first read, some of the reasoning for things like doubling the indicated sensitivity seem a bit vague. Why double and not 1.5 or 3x? I’ll re-read it and read the comments and see if it become clearer. (Or perhaps add a cup of coffee and see if that helps 😉 I did an all-nighter last night and I’m a bit slow today…) If it’s just a ‘plug value’ as a guess for a reasonable adjustment, that looks, well, ‘reasonable’…
Again, nicely done.
I had sent this to Anthony Watts regarding an experiment that he showed that came from a suggested experiment that Al Gore had proposed and after carrying it out it was proven to be bogus, no surprise there; but, the question that I have is why bother?
Actually, this whole concept of a green house like effect surrounding the earth like a pane of glass is a ludicrous attempt to present a vision in children’s heads and I well imagine many adults also believe this. The question is, when was the last time anyone was able to “capture” anything with a gas? That this ubiquitous, odorless, colorless, and benign trace gas essential for life on earth, CO2, that is one and one-half times heavier than the rest of the atmosphere (maybe there is intelligent design after all because everything that utilizes CO2 is on the surface of the earth) and be reminded that it constitutes only .037% of the total atmosphere of our planet can have basically anything to do with the earth’s climate can not and never will be shown by ANY experiment to do so.
That H2O is what causes the green house effect should be realized by anyone that has ever noticed that the coldest nights of the winter occur when there is no cloud cover and this is why the deserts can get to 130*F during the day and freezing at night, no cloud cover.
Carbon dioxide is one and one half times heavier than “air”. This point was sadly proven on Aug, 21, 1986 when Lake Nyor in Cameroon released about 1.6 million tons of CO2 that spilled over the lip of the lake and down into a valley and killed 1,700 people within 16 miles of the lake. “Carbon dioxide, being about 1.5 times as dense as air, caused the cloud to “hug” the ground and descend down the valleys where various villages were located. The mass was about 50 metres (164 ft) thick and it travelled downward at a rate of 20–50 kilometres (12–31 mi) per hour. For roughly 23 kilometres (14 mi) the cloud remained condensed and dangerous, suffocating many of the people sleeping in Nyos,Kam,Cha,andSubum.
“http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L…
This coincides with the above fact about CO2:
ppm of CO2 with altitude and mass of CO2 in atmosphere to 8520 metres beyond which there is practically no CO2
http://greenparty.ca/blogs/169/2009-01-03/ppm-co2-altitude-and-mass-co2-atmosphere-8520-metres-beyond-which-there-practic
(It is strange that I happened on this above at the Green Party of Canada’s site)
There are some obsessed with the supposed increase of 280 ppm to 392ppm of CO2 and I hope that this information will help them to sleep better at nights.
This, I hope, will put this into some kind of a perspective that makes one understand just how insignificant this increase is.
A part per million is like 1 drop of ink in a large
kitchen sink.
A large kitchen sink is about 13-14 gallons. There
are 100 drops in one teaspoon, and 768 teaspoons
per gallon.
Some other things that are one part per million are…
One drop in the fuel tank of a mid-sized car
One inch in 16 miles
About one minute in two years
One car in a line of bumper-to-bumper traffic from
Cleveland to San Francisco.
One penny in $10,000.
I know that you understand that these 112 additional ppm are spread out over this 16 miles in different one inch segments and wouldn’t it be a task to be told to sort out the 392 pennies from the number that it would take to make up $10,000.
At 392 parts per million CO2 is a minor constituent of earth’s atmosphere– less than 4/100ths of 1% of all gases present. Compared to former geologic times, earth’s current atmosphere is CO2- impoverished.
Let’s picture this in another way to really get an idea of the scale of CO2 compared to the total atmosphere. The Eiffel Tower in Paris is 324 metres high (1063ft). If the hight of the Eiffel Tower represented the total size of the atmosphere then the natural level of CO2 would be 8.75 centimetres of that hight (3.4 inches) and the amount added by humans up until today would be an extra 3.76 centimetres (1.5 inches)
http://a-sceptical-mind.com/co2-the-basic-facts
J Doug Swallow