Tuvalu flooding FAIL – no supermoon tide of any significance

Told ya so. In I Feel a FAIL Coming On – Will Tuvalu Survive ‘Super moon’? Andi Cockroft pointed out that there was the usual media disaster hype, and the reality of what perigee moons actually do to affect tides, which isn’t much.

A “super-moon” will be a novelty for New Zealanders on Sunday, but for the 12,000 people of Tuvalu it is a foreboding practice for a future where rising seas make their homeland uninhabitable.

On Monday and Tuesday super-moon king tides will leave much of the capital atoll of Funafuti virtually below sea-level.

Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/6858916/Super-moon-bad-news-for-Tuvalu

But the sea level/supermoon tide reality reported today sure didn’t match the hype earlier this week. In fact, it was a total predictive failure.

Source: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10804057

FAIL with a cherry on it. .3 meter lower than tides in the spring that they weren’t hyping.

For why Tuvalu won’t succumb to sea level rise, read this: Floating Islands

And their own government doesn’t even believe the sea level alarm, because they are building new airports and resorts: Tuvalu and many other South Pacific Islands are not sinking, claims they are due to global warming driven sea level rise are opportunistic.

Follow the money.  h/t to WUWT commenter “inversesquare“.

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inversesquare

Propaganda at it’s finest:)….

R. Shearer

So long as not too many people run to one side of the island, they should be fine.

Mike Jowsey

“No one was swept away but sea-water flooded the compost pits in which people have been growing their root crops for centuries.”
So… if they have been growing in these flood-prone pits for centuries, where’s the problem? F’gawds sake, kiwi journos – THINK!

CodeTech

What will it take??? What will it take to convince the unbelievers, the skeptics, the deniers?
Well, actually, anything. But they’ve got exactly NOTHING.

tango

they don,t tell you that a lot of these islands are sinking naturally

How come no one is pointing out that the moon goes through perigee, and gets this close once every orbit?

Dennis Cox,
Someone pointed it out, but I can’t remember where. The difference is that perigee this month coincided with a full moon.

DJ

Funny. No secret gasses involved, no covert emails out of context, just simple physics. Known planet masses, known tidal effects…. very clean mechanics with no obscure feedbacks, and they can’t get it right.
If the alarmists can’t even get something relatively as simple as some gravitational forces, please, someone, explain to me why the alarmists should be believed when they talk about a complex chaotic system with both positive and negative feedbacks, involving physics AND chemistry??
….. Or have we passed the tipping point, and global warming is warping the laws of physics now?

Bennett

“No one was swept away but sea-water flooded the compost pits…”
I know that in some places an incoming tide can be perilous, but that’s not the rule by any stretch. In researching it a tad, I ran across this story which is really alarming I suppose, but more in an “ashamed to be human” sort of way.
The fifth picture is amazing!
Such incompetent photoshopping.
“It’s a damn wall. Level doesn’t work that way!”
Be scared not.

Yes, But the fact that it’s reflecting more light doesn’t have anything to do with the moon’s gravitational pull on the Earth at perigee. In fact, during a full moon the Earth is between the sun, and the Moon. And the highest tides happen when the moon is at perigee and on the same side of the Earth as the sun. In other words, the highest tides of the year always happen on the darkest nights.

Bennett

@Dennis Yes, But the fact that it’s reflecting more light doesn’t have anything to do with the moon’s gravitational pull on the Earth at perigee.
Exactly, plus all the rest of what you penned. Full moon, bfd.

DaveG

Yesterday I/my super catastrophe model made the easiest prediction in the world, Now do I get some of that global warming grant money?
DaveG says:
May 5, 2012 at 6:21 pm
As I breathlessly write this Tuvalu and surrounding Atoll isles only have only 6 hrs left before the evil super moon destroys all in it’s deadly gravity grip. I won’t sleep tonight worrying about the Tuvaluanees. Where will they store the $billions in global warming guilt money from the western taxpayers with the Banks and island banksters underwater!
/ Sarc off
Seriously tomorrow will dawn the ocean will be the same depth as yesterday and the sun will shine as usual on the doom, gloom and the users on Tuvalu and the egg on their face warmers!

Ian Cooper

Mike Jowsey,
if our Kiwi journos, or any others for that matter, stopped to think about it they’d realize that there was nothing sensational in it so they would have to go and invent something else to sell their fish’n’chip wrappers with!
The worst part about it is, no matter what we do or say here there will always be a big group of extremely gullible people who also won’t take the time to think about it or ask the right questions. That is human nature and that is what we are dealing with. Going by the hits on this site those people are more and more in the minority. If only we could convince the politicians that it is the case!
Cheers
Coops

G. Karst

Bennett says:
May 6, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Exactly, plus all the rest of what you penned. Full moon, bfd.

It is no bfd for tides, but if you live in the country, away from city lights, the last few nights have been spectacularly bright. Eerie if one has never experienced it. GK

I have to say that since I’ve moved to the Southern Hemisphere (and I love it here) that the local media is particularly prone to Greenish Warmism. When the rest of the world has watched Carbon Trading fail miserably, the Labor Gov in Australia is just about to implement a carbon tax.
I hate to say it but I think we’re a bit behind the times down here!

toyotawhizguy

The good news for Tuvalu and other low elevation islands is that by analyzing the two-way transit time of pulsed laser beams aimed at retroreflectors placed on the surface of the moon by NASA, astronomers have determined that the moon is steadily receding from the earth by about 4 centimeters per year. Although the effect on the tides is miniscule in our lifetimes, the effect is cumulative.
The bad news is that it will take over 20,000 years from the present day until the moon has receded sufficiently to lower the tides by an amount sufficient to have an impact on inhabited low elevation islands.
A good analogy to the steady increase in the moon’s average orbital radius would be a clock that gains 3 milliseconds per year. After 20,000 years, without any adjustments, the clock will have gained 60 seconds.
The big question is who or what will be around 20,000 years in the future to benefit from this?

joe

Hopefully it doesn’t tip over. Do we have an army base there? :/

Len

DJ says:
May 6, 2012 at 8:15 pm
“Funny. No secret gasses involved, no covert emails out of context, just simple physics. Known planet masses, known tidal effects…. very clean mechanics with no obscure feedbacks, and they can’t get it right.”
DJ:
I don’t know if they have any physists or other hard science types left in the NZ govt research organizations. The rush has been to “community based”, social science, environmental science and other such leftists posing as real scientists. They are mostly activists and hard core leftists just as are they in the UK Met, USA NASA, NOAA, USGS, Etc. San.

Neil Jones

Today I’m feeling like a bear of very little brain…but doesn’t the moon hit perigee at some point of every month? Surely the only thing this time was that it almost coincided with Full-moon giving us a spectacular show.

Nigel S

‘king tides will get you every time.

George E. Smith

Talk about stuff and nonsense. All the Bay area radio and TV “news” stories said the moon would be 15% bigger and 30% brighter.
I don’t know about you, but when someone tells me that it means “than last night” or “than tomorrow night.
Even the Volvo ocean Race boats now zipping through the Bahamas on their way to Miami, got into the mega hype, saying that the moon was so bright that they didn’t need the strobe lights to illuminate the sails (so they can trim them for optimum performance). Like they didn’t notice the damn moon was just as bright the night before, and will be just as bright tonight; just not quite round.
These idiots don’t seem to know anything about orbital mechanics, and just how very slightly elliptical, the moon and earth orbits actually are.

Richard111

2.9 metres! HAH! High tide today at 06:40 gmt was 7.4 metres.

Marian

“inversesquare says:
May 6, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Propaganda at it’s finest:)….”
Yeah. That pretty much sums it up.
The NZ Herald has lost the plot when it comes to the amount of utter drivel it passes off as Climate Change stories. You’d think the MSM would give it up re Tuvalu and sea levels rises because its NOT a major real issue only in AGW/CC Fantasyland!
Having said that. I suppose you can’t expect anything better from the NZ Herald. Since its part of the Fairfax Media which have investments in Earth Hour organisation!

George E. Smith

“”””” nnis Cox says:
May 6, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Yes, But the fact that it’s reflecting more light doesn’t have anything to do with the moon’s gravitational pull on the Earth at perigee. In fact, during a full moon the Earth is between the sun, and the Moon. And the highest tides happen when the moon is at perigee and on the same side of the Earth as the sun. In other words, the highest tides of the year always happen on the darkest nights. “””””
No way Jose, the new moon and full moon tides are the same on average. There are two tidaal bulges; one on each side of the earth, and it diesn’t matter which side the sun and moon are on, given that you have a certain sun distance and a certain moon distance for the two cases of full moon and new moon.
Time to re-examine why there are tides at all Dennis.

George E. Smith says:
May 6, 2012 at 10:48 pm
“No way Jose, the new moon and full moon tides are the same on average. There are two tidaal bulges; one on each side of the earth, and it diesn’t matter which side the sun and moon are on, given that you have a certain sun distance and a certain moon distance for the two cases of full moon and new moon.”
Not well thought out, neither was Dennis’ comment. The Earth has a natural oceanic bulge centred on the equator, The Moon and Sun tidal bulges are superimposed on this, but at different angles to the plane of the equator. The two tidal bulges aren’t exactly symmetrical, they’re highest in the direction of the Moon & Sun, most pronounced for the much larger Moon bulge. This is because the Moon doesn’t rotate around the centre of the Earth, both rotate around their common centre of gravity, which is some distance away from Earth’s centre, and the mass of water offsets the monthly wobble the Earth experiences. When the Moon is closer, its bulge is higher, and at full Moon it’s aligned with the Sun’s tidal bulge. This is the time of spring tides, and the Moon’s perigee magnifies the effect when it coincides with a spring tide, the “Supermoon”.

Disko Troop

Surely the term should be “gravitational squeeze” of the moon as the high tide on the far side of the Earth would be a “push” as opposed to the “pull” on the side nearest to the moon.

I intended to add that tide predictions are based on tidal mechanics. The final outcome depends on other factors also; the biggest effect is atmospheric pressure. A 1 millibar change results in approximately 1 cm change in sea level; lower pressure, higher sea level. Wind also has an effect, so a deep depression with winds in an unfavourable direction could have resulted in a tide which exceeded the prediction by at as much as 10-20 cm, possibly even more if a strong cyclone was passing. Add in surface temperature which can expand or contract the surface layer to further complicate matters, and wipe the smug grin off some faces.

No need for waders to check my letterbox today for 2 reasons. No abnormally high tide and it was a public holiday so no mail delieveries.

Jimbo

Just how many failures do we have to endure before they finally own up and tell us they were simply trying to pull the wool over our eyes? Fail, fail and fail again.

Rick Bradford

People only remember the initial hype: (“Jones found with underage girls”) and never the retraction (“Sorry, Jones not found with underage girls”) and as the media is overwhelmingly Left/Green oriented, you rarely see any sort of retraction at all.
The hype, or lie, whatever you want to call it, has done its work. Ask Alinsky.

Curiousgeorge

It wasn’t too long ago that Oracles who were wrong suffered severe consequences. Especially if their predictions cost the King some embarrassment or treasure. Perhaps that risk should be re-instituted.

David

Yet STILL the BBC’s Richard Black is reporting on an upcoming climate conference which of course will discuss, amongst all the other scare stories, RISING SEA LEVELS….

SPreserv

Someone has to remove the moon alltogeteher to save us all from future peril scenarios.
It will also stop the earth from wobbling and werewolves and …
/also sarc

Peter Crawford

@ Dennis Cox and @Neil Jones – As I pointed out on the original thread. The Moon is at perigee once every 27.5 days and a full moon perigee occurs every 411 days. The effect these common, well known events have on tides on Earth is trivial.
Furthermore, it follows that several other of the 13 0r 14 full moons occurring during that 411 day period will be at a time when the moon is very close to perigee. Usually about 3 or 4 of them. So this “14% bigger than any other this year” is arrant nonsense. BTW the accepted difference in apparent size between the full moon at perigee and the full moon at apogee is 11.5%.
I can guess how they concocted the 14% figure but can’t figure out WHY.

Ulrich Elkmann

“Total predictive failure”.
Could be the motto of the whole eco/green/save-the-XXXes movement(s). Starting with Rachel Carson (if not Parson Malthus). Nothing but doom ‘n’ gloom forecasts, unrelentingly.
And not a SINGLE hit in their favor.
(At least by now we don’t have to wait x decades to that to become obvious. Just 2 days.)

alan

Like children telling tall tales about monsters under the bed to get attention! It’s a shame that big media organizations encourage this kind of childish scaremongering. There seem to be few adults in their audiences.

Person of Choler

You don’t have to travel to balmy Polynesia to find sea level alarmists. The Washington State Department of Ecology solicits from the public photographs of water levels at the highest tides to be used, they say, in preparation for the impacts of climate change:
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ipa_hightide_map.htm
The department certainly has all the data to necessary to support the analysis they think they need to do, but such an exercise is a good excuse for greenie beach excursions and it yields images useful in warmist propaganda. Doubtless, flocks of high school students herded by concerned educators descend on the beaches on the appropriate dates.

I do not see anything wrong with what Dennis Cox had to say, looking at this…
http://www.onr.navy.mil/focus/ocean/motion/tides1.htm

Thanks Ed Mertin,
I should part out that I didn’t make that statement about the highest tides of the year being on the darkest nights based on reading any specific blog, or paper. But simply from the personal perspective of one who lived with the tides for years in a little fishing town on the Willapa Bay in southwestern Washington.
A common local saying there is “When the tide goes out, the table’s set.” The Willapa Bay is Large, and shallow. And those who want to dig for clams, or work their Oyster beds, who don’t pay attention to the tides can run aground, and get stranded for long hours at a time. And since the weather can quickly turn choppy and dangerous while you are stuck on a sand bar out in the middle of the bay, tidal mistakes can get you killed.

woodNfish

I find it telling that none of the media reports included the fact that the perigree moon has occured at least once a year, every year. No, they wanted to pump this up as something unique and potentially disastrous to sow fear and try and link any disasters with AGW. This was never anything more than fear-mongering and propaganda.

George E. Smith

“””””
me to re-examine why there are tides at all Dennis.
MostlyHarmless says:
May 7, 2012 at 12:51 am
George E. Smith says:
May 6, 2012 at 10:48 pm
“No way Jose, the new moon and full moon tides are the same on average. There are two tidaal bulges; one on each side of the earth, and it diesn’t matter which side the sun and moon are on, given that you have a certain sun distance and a certain moon distance for the two cases of full moon and new moon.”
Not well thought out, neither was Dennis’ comment. The Earth has a natural oceanic bulge centred on the equator, The Moon and Sun tidal bulges are superimposed on this, but at different angles to the plane of the equator. “””””
Actually quite thoroughly thought out; but reduced to a simple geometry problem of a symmetrical earth, to simply adress the issue of whether the side the moon is on matters. (it doesn’t) Your more elaborate real earth case seems to have forgotten that the earth is not even symmetrical in shape, so the reality is even more complicated than you suggest; not to mention that the non uniform arrangement of the land masses messes it up even more.
Reduce it to the simplest geometrical symmetry, and then explain why it matters which side the moon is on, when aligned.

George E. Smith says:

“Reduce it to the simplest geometrical symmetry, and then explain why it matters which side the moon is on, when aligned.”

It matters because when the moon is at perigee and at the same time is aligned between the sun, and the Earth, the gravitational pull that creates the tides is maximized. You can get all anal about demanding a better, more scientific explanation than that if you like. It’s not clear what your definition of "well thought out" is. But when you’ve lived a fisherman’s lifestyle that’s been intimately connected with the rising and falling of the tides for a few years, (and a couple of thousand tides) the simple subjective observation that the highest tides happen on the darkest nights becomes an observation based on years of direct experience.

Peter Crawford says:
May 7, 2012 at 7:01 am
@ Dennis Cox and @Neil Jones – As I pointed out on the original thread. The Moon is at perigee once every 27.5 days and a full moon perigee occurs every 411 days. The effect these common, well known events have on tides on Earth is trivial.

This ‘super moon’ aligns very close to the ecliptic; there’s an annular solar eclipse at the next new moon. That has to add a little to the tide height compared to the typical full moon perigee.
Also, due to the rotation of the Earth the tidal bulge is east of the point where the moon is directly overhead. To the observer the bulge occurs after the moon has crossed the meridian.

Gunga Din

Tuvalu is still there.
In looking into tides I came across abit of info that I once knew but had forgotten. Just as there are tidesw in the ocean, there are tides in the atmosphere. As the air is pulled toward the Moon (or the Sun) they can actually cause a “breeze” of about 0.05 mph. So, I think all these stories about the “Super Moon” submerging Tulavu were caused by the “Super Moon” itself. It must have pulled the oxygen out of all those newsrooms.

Pamela Gray

I’m Irish, born in July under the moon, and DEFINITELY got swept away Saturday night. What a fun event!

When the sun and moon are directly across the earth from each other to make the king tides in the ocean they also combine the tidal effects in the atmosphere, as the declinational angle at culmination shifts through the 18.6 year Mn cycle, there results in a gradual shift in the time of year that the moon and sun are both closest to the ecliptic plane at the same time. The atmospheric tidal effect of this both on the ecliptic plane produces the blocking highs that drift through the seasons due to the progression of declinational angle extent and the procession of the lunar nodes on a ~9 year pattern. If you look at the past occurrence of these patterns and use them as an analog for forecasting the pattern of blocking highs, past and present you will find the Russian heat waves and the Pakistani floods are predictable to with in a couple days.
From looking at the entire pattern you could forecast the occurrence of almost all blocking highs (which the standard numerical models cannot do yet, as the info is not included in the model, WUWT?

George E. Smith

“”””” Dennis Cox says:
May 7, 2012 at 1:32 pm
George E. Smith says:
“Reduce it to the simplest geometrical symmetry, and then explain why it matters which side the moon is on, when aligned.”
It matters because when the moon is at perigee and at the same time is aligned between the sun, and the Earth, the gravitational pull that creates the tides is maximized. You can get all anal about demanding a better, more scientific explanation than that if you like. It’s not clear what your definition of “well thought out” is. But when you’ve lived a fisherman’s lifestyle that’s been intimately connected with the rising and falling of the tides for a few years, (and a couple of thousand tides) the simple subjective observation that the highest tides happen on the darkest nights becomes an observation based on years of direct experience. “””””
Well Dennis, being as you are an experienced fisherman; I’m going to bow to your assertion that the gravitational pull of the moon and the sun is maximised when the sun and the moon are on the same side of the earth, and since the moon is closer to the earth than the sun is, that would put the moon between the earth and the sun, so they are both pulling on the oceans in concert.
For most locations on planet earth, that would also make it daylight rather than the darkest of nights.
So if your fishing lifestyle observations are correct, that would imply that on the darkest of nights, with the sun and the moon both being on the opposite side of the earth, then they both must be PUSHING the oceean away under your boat rather than PULLING on the ocean.
Sorry Dennis, you can’t have both the sun and the moon pulling in concert on the ocean closest to them, and have it be the darkest of nights; it has to be daylight; maybe its the brightest of days, with both the sun and the moon illuminating the earth over that maxi tide.

George, please click onto the link that I provided.
The key to tides is the varying strength of the Moon’s gravitational pull on different parts of the globe. The Moon pulls most on the water nearest to it,creating a high tide bulge of water. On the opposite side of the planet,about 7,926 miles (1,2760 km) away,the Moon’s pull is much weaker and the water is left to form another high tide bulge. Low tides are found halfway between the highs. The rotating Earth carries us through these regions of high and low water.
When the Moon,Earth,and Sun fall in a straight line, which we call syzygy (siz-eh-gee),we notice the greatest difference between high and low tide water levels. These spring tides occur twice each month,during the full and new Moon. If the Moon is at perigee,the closest it approaches Earth in its orbit, the tides are especially high and low.

Mr Smith there are two high tides, and two low tides every day.

George E. Smith

“””””
Ed Mertin says:
May 7, 2012 at 11:08 pm
George, please click onto the link that I provided.
The key to tides is the varying strength of the Moon’s gravitational pull on different parts of the globe. The Moon pulls most on the water nearest to it,creating a high tide bulge of water. On the opposite side of the planet,about 7,926 miles (1,2760 km) away,the Moon’s pull is much weaker and the water is left to form another high tide bulge. Low tides are found halfway between the highs. The rotating Earth carries us through these regions of high and low water.
When the Moon,Earth,and Sun fall in a straight line, which we call syzygy (siz-eh-gee),we notice the greatest difference between high and low tide water levels. These spring tides occur twice each month,during the full and new Moon. If the Moon is at perigee,the closest it approaches Earth in its orbit, the tides are especially high and low.
Dennis Cox says:
May 8, 2012 at 5:58 am
Mr Smith there are two high tides, and two low tides every day. “””””
To Ed and Dennis,
If you have been working and earning a living for more than 52 continuous years as a working Physicist; then you probably know much more about Physics, and the Physics of Orbital Mechanics, and of Tides, than I do.
If you look back over this thread, you will see that it was Dennis who said that the sun and the moon have to be ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE EARTH for the highest tides; thereby indicating that the tidal bulge on THE OPPOSITE SIDE of the earth, which is in the DARKEST NIGHT condition is somehow a bigger bulge, than the one on THE SAME SIDE of the earth as the sun and moon, which is in the BRIGHTEST DAYLIGHT condition.
So he’s the one claiming from his fishing experience that the two tidal bulges are different heights, and the one on the dark side is somehow the highest.
I SIMPLIFIED the problem to a clean symmetrical geometry of a uniform oblate spheroidal earth, and eliminated the complexities of the continental locations and all the other factors that do in fact make th complete tidal picture more complex, so that it was a simple (idealized) three body orbital mechanics problem , and I don’t know how many times I actually did the math for students that shows that first order, the two bulges are the same on both sides of the earth, and it is irrelevent which side the sun or the moon is on, they each (alone) would produce two equal tidal bulges on opposite sides of the earth, so it only matters that sun earth and moon be colinear to get the highest tide (ON BOTH SIDES OF THE EARTH SIMULTANEOUSLY).
So SEM works equally as well as SME, or EMS, or MES to produce the highest tides.
Two of those cases are daylight tides, and two are nightime tides, and daytime is not the darkest night. I suppose a total eclipse of the sun, would produce the darkest night on the opposite side, depending on planetary and stellar configurations; perhaps seen in North Korea.
But as I said; maybe you chaps have been at it longer than I.