Readers may recall how the Met Office botched yet another forecast, calling for drought but instead getting a month of deluge. Here’s the numbers.
By Paul Homewood
The UK Met Office have just released their weather data for April, which confirms just how wet and cold the month has been. With an average of 126.5mm of rain, this has been the wettest April on records which go back to 1910. It was also the coldest since 1989, 0.65C colder than the 1971-2000 average.
This, of course, is in stark contrast to the 3 month outlook the Met Office issued on 23rd March, which told us that :-
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION: The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.
and
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The UK-average temperature forecast for spring (April-May-June) shows a range of possible outcomes that are warmer than the range observed between 1971 and 2000 (our standard climatological reference period), but quite similar to the last decade. For April the forecast also favours temperatures being warmer than the 1971-2000 reference period.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/q/A3-layout-temp-AMJ.pdf
So far (unless I have blinked),the Met Office Chairman, Robert Napier (formerly Chief Exec of WWF-UK), has not been doing the round of TV studios to apologise for getting things so badly wrong. But what about the longer perspective, with parts of England still officially in drought?
Figure 1 shows annual rainfall trends up to the end of 2011. The last 2 years have been dry, but are similar to many earlier years in the record, while the long term trend is remarkably stable.
Figure 1
Further analysis on the 2011 numbers by season and also by region is available here. (Again, this analysis shows that there is not much happening with long term rainfall trends and also that there was nothing particularly unusual about 2011).
Figure 2 shows the cumulative rainfall totals in England & Wales for January – April, both for this year and the 1971-2000 average. In most parts of the country, rainfall has been close to normal. Only the West and Wales have had significantly low levels, but these areas have not been in drought and generally receive much higher amounts of rain than the rest of the country anyway. Figure 3 gives the cumulative amounts for the last 16 months. (The 1971-2000 average is also for 16 months, i.e. January – December PLUS January – April). The areas mainly affected by drought (as the map below indicates) are the Midlands, East Anglia and South East, and rainfall levels since January 2011 are down by 19%, 18% and 15% respectively, but close to normal this year.
Figure 2
Figure 3
Forecast for May/June/July
The Met Office have also recently issued their 3 month outlook for May to July. For temperatures, they have this to say.
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The balance of probability, both for May and the period May-June-July 2012, favours UK-averaged temperatures above the 1971-2000 climate mean, but in line with those observed over the last ten years. However, predictability for both periods tends to be low, with current forecasts indicating greater-than-average uncertainty in UK weather patterns as early as the beginning of May. May is also a month where there can still be large swings in temperature depending on the prevailing wind direction and so cold spells are still possible despite the most likely scenario being for above-normal temperatures. The probability that the UK-mean temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/d/A3-layout-temp-MMJ.pdf
And precipitation.
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION: For UK-average rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above normal values during both May and May-June-July. However, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant probability of below normal rainfall. Whilst the wet weather of recent weeks will have had a positive effect on soil moisture, with all that that implies for agriculture, it is unlikely to have had a significant impact on groundwater supplies. With the forecast for May and May-June-July not favouring a continuation of the current very wet spell, groundwater resources in southern, eastern and central England are very unlikely to recover during this period. The probability that UK-average rainfall for May-June-July will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 15%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/l/A3-layout-precip-MJJ.pdf
In other words, it will probably be hot and wet, but they don’t really know. Maybe, Robert Napier should go back to saving polar bears.
We now have the wettest drought on record. Must be global warming 😉
1975 was a drought year lasting into the spring of 1976. The Wilson government appointed a minister of drought (David Hume) and then it started raining buckets.
At that time we had had more than two decades of global cooling with the environmental gurus warning of a new ice age.
Eric Adler says:
May 6, 2012 at 6:21 am
?????
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Eric Adler,
“For 2011, the Arctic Temperature Anomaly (64 – 90 degrees) over the past year has been 2.32C. The temperatures for Equator to 24, 24 to 44, and 44 to 46 respectively were 0.3, 0.46 and 0.92 respectively.
These anomalies represent a weakening of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the lower latitudes. That has been a general trend.”
If the Arctic temperatures have increased by more than lower latitudes, how is that a weakening of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the lower latitudes?
I don’t want to frighten you guys (yet)
but I am expecting some cooling coming up…
especially noted from the decline in maximum temps
which nobody on this entire earth seems to be plotting….
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
Have a read at Richard North’s Eureferendum, http://www.eureferendum.com to know how the EU is using the artificial drought alarmism in combination of “man made water shortages” to hike water prices and punish the UK population for living.
Met Ofice of course is a willing partner in this conspiracy.
Yes, CONSPIRACY!
Screw them all.
Eric Adler
Any reduction in the temperature gradients between the Arctic and mid latitudes would reduce storm energy. That is why there is evidence of large storms becoming more frequent in the LIA.
Eric Adler;
The idea that the weakening jet stream is causing blocking patterns is accepted by all meteorologists.>>>>
All of them? Really? ALL? Do you have their signatures on a very long piece of paper to prove this?
BTW, the article you linked to correlated sea ice patterns and extents to changes in the jet stream. You linked to it, but babbled on about temperature as if it is the same thing, it isn’t. And sea ice extent is darn near normal this year. And the article babbled on about unusual weather these last few years. There’s nothing unusual about it, similar events have happened for centuries.
Yeah, if April ends up actually being the driest month, you guys need to build an Ark….
This is a test. My last couple of comments to the site have disappeared into a black hole. In each case, I subsequently received an E-nail from “WordPress” inviting me to subscribe. Is a WordPress subscription now required in order to get comments through to WUWT?
I swear both sides of this debate are in a contest looking for the ultimate tiniest little quark-sized anomaly in some supposed “driver” to explain it all. TSI, CO2, UV, electro-magnetism, an ice-cube sized reduction in ice extent, or it could all be the fault of CP3O.
And never mind the big ponds to the right and left. They have nothing to do with anything, no affect whatsoever, keep moving along, nothing to see there.
Eric Adler
Commented
“If you look at the global anomaly map for March, you can see the Arctic temperatures are very high over the Europe and Eastern Siberia, surrounded by a cooler region. The result of the blocking system over North America is clearly visible as a heat wave, just to the south of the cool band around the Arctic.”
It is good to see you agreeing that todays climate bears many similarities to the past. In my study that examined the temperature reconstructions of Dr Mann and Hubert Lamb- whereby I recostructed my own temperature record back to 1538 from the CET instrunental record commencing 1659- I commented, after reading many thousands of contemporary British records;:
“Due to its geographical location British weather is often quite mobile and periods of hot, cold, dry or wet weather tend to be relatively short lived. If such events are longer lasting than normal, or interrupted and resumed, that can easily shape the character of a month or a season. Reading the numerous references there is clear evidence of ‘blocking patterns,’ perhaps as the jet stream shifts, or a high pressure takes up residence, feeding in winds from a certain direction which generally shape British weather.
http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/
tonyb
By the way, I’ve been getting emailed multiple subscribe messages too.
Now that I see my “test message” successfully posted, I’ll try copying in one of those that previously disappeared:
[SNIP: Oh, that one. Claude, if you cut out the ethnic reference, which some may consider offensive, I’ll pass it. -REP]
Eric Adler
What evidence do you have that blocking patterns have increased in recent years?
I propose an “austerity” deal for the Brits. I know a woman who reads “chicken entrails”. She’s a lot cheaper than the Met Office staff. The initial cost of a flock of chickens is a pittance compared with the Met’s super-computer and electric power for a dozen, hundred-watt light bulbs is all Chicken Momma needs to keep that flock hatched out in perpetuity. Other than a stud-rooster and one government employee to fuzz up Chicken Momma’s characteristically concise predictions prior to public release, I can’t think what else would be required to replace the entire Met Office function and save the U.K. taxpayers a ton of money.
Within the UK in April there were large variations. In Scotland rainfall was not particularly high while in west Scotland (where I live) we had quite a dry April. The data is all recorded at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html
No evidence here of climate change, just the usual highly variable unpredictable British weather which we all love so much.
@sadbutmadlad
“the UK definition of drought means not enough drinking water to supply the population . . .”
We’ve been in a drought for over a month. People dying of thirst are nowhere to be seen. Hmmmm
Sustainable development as defined in Agenda 21 requires the use of water to be managed from a demand perspective not a supply perspective, i.e. no new reservoirs, no improvements to infrastructure but much enforced reduction in use through hosepipe bans, charging, meters and other legal instruments.
I’m just waiting for the MetOffice to say it was the ‘wrong kind of rain’….. the brits will understand the joke…
I wonder if we ought to create an “Epic FAIL!” award, to be given for the most spectacular individual FAIL in prediction and with a special award for “The most consistent FAIL!”…
I think I know who would “win” it…
To Myk Taylor, Minister for Drought in 1976 was not David Hume (Edinburgh Enlightenment philosopher) but Denis Howell. Highly successful in post; couple of days after appointment it started raining and forgot to stop leading to much jocularity at appointment. Old enough to remember it all.
@Myk Taylor: The Minister for Drought in 1976 was Dennis Howell, not Hume. And the drought lasted right through the summer of 76. I remember it well as it was my first summer at infant school, and we were all given stickers about how to save water, and share our bathwater with a friend! The drought didn’t break until late August ’76.
Vince Causey says:
May 6, 2012 at 8:04 am
“Eric Adler,
“For 2011, the Arctic Temperature Anomaly (64 – 90 degrees) over the past year has been 2.32C. The temperatures for Equator to 24, 24 to 44, and 44 to 46 respectively were 0.3, 0.46 and 0.92 respectively.
These anomalies represent a weakening of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the lower latitudes. That has been a general trend.”
If the Arctic temperatures have increased by more than lower latitudes, how is that a weakening of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the lower latitudes?”
The difference between Arctic and Equator temps is given by TE-TA.
The Arctic is colder than the equator. If the TA increases faster than TE, the temperature difference between the 2 regions reduces.
JimH says:
May 7, 2012 at 9:01 am
@Myk Taylor: The Minister for Drought in 1976 was Dennis Howell, not Hume. And the drought lasted right through the summer of 76.
________________________________
I remember that summer too. I visited Britian to go caving and we walked into bone dry caves that were normally “A bit damp” (British for you have to dive underwater to enter the cave.) I also managed to get a sunburn!
Several have posted about the two year drought of 75-76 in the UK. I remember it very well, there are some interesting parallels to this year. On the second of June I was working at our lab in Buxton, it was a cold morning as May had been a cold month (like this April), I was thinking if it fined up by lunchtime I’d go and watch the cricket match between Derby and Lancs which was shaping up to be an interesting match. When I came out at lunchtime I was amazed to see 3″ of snow on the ground! The sports pages the next day had the headline ‘snow stopped play’. By the end of the week a heat wave started which was the beginning of the drought which didn’t end until September of the next year! So the UK weather hasn’t got any more predictable.