Readers may recall how the Met Office botched yet another forecast, calling for drought but instead getting a month of deluge. Here’s the numbers.
By Paul Homewood
The UK Met Office have just released their weather data for April, which confirms just how wet and cold the month has been. With an average of 126.5mm of rain, this has been the wettest April on records which go back to 1910. It was also the coldest since 1989, 0.65C colder than the 1971-2000 average.
This, of course, is in stark contrast to the 3 month outlook the Met Office issued on 23rd March, which told us that :-
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION: The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.
and
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The UK-average temperature forecast for spring (April-May-June) shows a range of possible outcomes that are warmer than the range observed between 1971 and 2000 (our standard climatological reference period), but quite similar to the last decade. For April the forecast also favours temperatures being warmer than the 1971-2000 reference period.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/q/A3-layout-temp-AMJ.pdf
So far (unless I have blinked),the Met Office Chairman, Robert Napier (formerly Chief Exec of WWF-UK), has not been doing the round of TV studios to apologise for getting things so badly wrong. But what about the longer perspective, with parts of England still officially in drought?
Figure 1 shows annual rainfall trends up to the end of 2011. The last 2 years have been dry, but are similar to many earlier years in the record, while the long term trend is remarkably stable.
Figure 1
Further analysis on the 2011 numbers by season and also by region is available here. (Again, this analysis shows that there is not much happening with long term rainfall trends and also that there was nothing particularly unusual about 2011).
Figure 2 shows the cumulative rainfall totals in England & Wales for January – April, both for this year and the 1971-2000 average. In most parts of the country, rainfall has been close to normal. Only the West and Wales have had significantly low levels, but these areas have not been in drought and generally receive much higher amounts of rain than the rest of the country anyway. Figure 3 gives the cumulative amounts for the last 16 months. (The 1971-2000 average is also for 16 months, i.e. January – December PLUS January – April). The areas mainly affected by drought (as the map below indicates) are the Midlands, East Anglia and South East, and rainfall levels since January 2011 are down by 19%, 18% and 15% respectively, but close to normal this year.
Figure 2
Figure 3
Forecast for May/June/July
The Met Office have also recently issued their 3 month outlook for May to July. For temperatures, they have this to say.
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The balance of probability, both for May and the period May-June-July 2012, favours UK-averaged temperatures above the 1971-2000 climate mean, but in line with those observed over the last ten years. However, predictability for both periods tends to be low, with current forecasts indicating greater-than-average uncertainty in UK weather patterns as early as the beginning of May. May is also a month where there can still be large swings in temperature depending on the prevailing wind direction and so cold spells are still possible despite the most likely scenario being for above-normal temperatures. The probability that the UK-mean temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/d/A3-layout-temp-MMJ.pdf
And precipitation.
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION: For UK-average rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above normal values during both May and May-June-July. However, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant probability of below normal rainfall. Whilst the wet weather of recent weeks will have had a positive effect on soil moisture, with all that that implies for agriculture, it is unlikely to have had a significant impact on groundwater supplies. With the forecast for May and May-June-July not favouring a continuation of the current very wet spell, groundwater resources in southern, eastern and central England are very unlikely to recover during this period. The probability that UK-average rainfall for May-June-July will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 15%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/l/A3-layout-precip-MJJ.pdf
In other words, it will probably be hot and wet, but they don’t really know. Maybe, Robert Napier should go back to saving polar bears.
Having looked at some of the pictures, I was astonished to see that the average rainfall for April was 126.5 mm (4.98 in). In Tulsa Oklahoma in September 1971 we had 18.18 in (461.8 mm) of rain. On May 26-27 1984 we had 9.27 in (235.4 mm) within 24 hours. My recollection of that storm is that most of the rain fell within 8 or 9 hours. It was a magnificent rain storm.
Noting that the above post shows an average for NW and N Wales of about 1700 mm/year (67 in/year), but our maximum has been 69.88 in (1774.95 mm) in year 1973. I would suggest that the infrastructure in England is in even worse shape than here is Tulsa.
Donald K. Mitchell
I had three builders on site every day the last week filthy from working in the mud and the rain. At then end of the day they couldnt use the hose to clean of though because there is a hosepipe ban due to the drought.
This is after a solid month of rain though.
There is no incentive to get it right, because if they get it wrong, they can get bigger computers.
Just eye balling the two charts of temperature and rainfall you can see that autocorrelation is quite high in temperature but very poor in rainfall. As long as uncertainties are properly communicated I wouldn’t have much problem with the ‘failed’ prediction’. Uncertainty in rainfall though looks so high they may as well not bother.
Latitude says:
May 5, 2012 at 6:44 pm
“Eric Adler says:
May 5, 2012 at 5:47 pm
It is interesting that due to the warming of the Arctic, the jet stream is becoming weaker, and
meandering more, which sets up these blocking patterns that create more frequent extreme drought and extreme wet conditions.
=========================
Eric, you might check Arctic temps this year…and ice extent while you’re at it
…..Materbedwetter counts on useful idiots”
Instead of using invective, you might try to understand what is happening. The weakening of the jet stream does not depend solely on the Arctic temperature. It depends on the difference between Arctic temperatures and the temperatures of the lower latitudes. For 2011, the Arctic Temperature Anomaly (64 – 90 degrees) over the past year has been 2.32C. The temperatures for Equator to 24, 24 to 44, and 44 to 46 respectively were 0.3, 0.46 and 0.92 respectively.
These anomalies represent a weakening of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the lower latitudes. That has been a general trend.
If you look at the global anomaly map for March, you can see the Arctic temperatures are very high over the Europe and Eastern Siberia, surrounded by a cooler region. The result of the blocking system over North America is clearly visible as a heat wave, just to the south of the cool band around the Arctic.
Useful idiots are better than useless idiots.
Well this Sunday morning we have had a bit more drought and it looks like we will have more as the day goes on. Our cat is not impressed and looks at me as if it is all my fault, so maybe the animals know mankind are to blame 🙂
James Bull
@Adam Gallon
“It’s bloody cold now! Forecast for tonight has temperature dropping to -5C in some areas.”
There is a term for that: Blackberry Winter
And on the continent, in German speakig countries it is known as Eisheilige.
There is nothing special about it being -5C in the UK or on the continent around this time of the year.
I had my b-day just very recently, and on that, my father keeps telling me for the past 40 years: ‘you know, a week after your birth, the puddles were frozen – which is about now-ish.
The UK definition of “drought” means not enough drinking water to supply the population. Partly caused by rainfall not matching demand and reservoirs getting depleted. Partly caused by leaky Victorian plumbing. Partly caused by green policies set by the EU and gold plated by the UK which means that companies are given grants to hand out equipment that reduces water use but no money to fix the leaks and no money to increase the supply of water to the increasing population.
The Met Office will simply state that this is the wrong kind of wet. I really is dry and inline with pridcitions about climate change. Move along nothing to see here.
May 5, 2012 at 6:59 pm DavidA says
——————–
There must come a point where the lack of certainty of one forecast flips to confidence in another. The MO forecasts are disingenuous … such wide ranges in uncertainty are of no value to anybody other than to support the meme.
It is quite clear that the Met Office serves no purpose in life whatsoever, unless of course we wish to no the weather forcast for the next 10 minutes. It is a department that the Government could close down completely and save a massive amount of money without it having the sligtest effect on any of us..
Saw this at Tim Blair’s blog – climate poetry rools OK.
Whan that Aprill, with his shoures soote
The droght of Marche hath perced to the roote
Than meterologists, doon on their lucke
Crye ‘forsooth! zounds!’, eek also – ‘what the —-k?!???!’
With apologies to Geoffrey Chaucer, The Canterbury Tales
It must have been a poor time for the heat and drought tolerant Mediterranean plants we were advised to substitute for grass and rose beds.
On a serious note, DEFRA (the UK Dept of Environment) issued a Climate Change Risk Assessment Report a few months ago. Presumably on the advice of the Met Office, it forecast increased winter rainfall and reduced summer rain. To the extent that there has been any trend at all in recent years, the opposite has occurred, with less winter and more summer rain.
Question – how much money will be wasted and how many wrong planning decisions will be made if the Met Office models prove to be wrong?
The full assessment report is linked here.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/02/07/are-english-droughts-getting-worse/
Dark tonight, light tomorrow!
Warning: Language.
George Carlin as Al Sleet, the Hippy Dippy Weatherman (1966)
George Carlin – The Planet is Fine !
Some claims on the Met Office website (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us) about themselves:
“A world leader in providing weather and climate services …”
“… recognised as one of the world’s most accurate forecasters …”
“… provides forecasts for the public to help them make informed decisions about their day-to-day activities”
” Our research continues to create an ever clearer picture of how it (climate change) will affect the planet and our lives”
“(Climate change research) .. plays a vital role in providing evidence to support climate predictions which show the planet is now locked into at least 2 °C of warming”
Would be funny if it wasn’t so serious.
J Bowers says:
May 5, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Why not? They pay their own way as a Trading Fund and make enough profit for their owner, the Ministry of Defence, to buy some tanks.
I had to correct this canard a couple of days ago, so once more with feeling.
THE MET OFFICE IS NOT “OWNED” BY THE MINISTRY OF DEFENCE!
From their own website:- “We are a Trading Fund within the Department for Business Innovation and Skills, operating on a commercial basis under set targets.” I hesitate to cite Wikipedia as an authoritative source, but it says the same thing.
I accept however that wherever it sits within the government, it’s still totally useless,
Another perspctive on Chaucer’s Prologue:
‘Whan that Aprill with his shoures soote
The droghte of March hath perced to the root,
And bathed each vegne in swich licour
Of which vertu engendred is the flour: 🙂
Thanne longen folk to goon on pilgrimages,
And climate scientists to seken strange strondes,
To distant climate bacchanales in sondry landes;
And specially from every shires ende
Of Engelonde, to Rio’s carbon gig they wende.’
“Eric Adler says:
May 5, 2012 at 5:47 pm
For 2011,
================================
That was last year……….you post was about right now………this is 2012
Seems the MET deserves thirty lashes with a very soggy wet noodle.
@Eric Adler
It is interesting that due to the warming of the Arctic, the jet stream is becoming weaker, and
meandering more, which sets up these blocking patterns that create more frequent extreme drought and extreme wet conditions..
Funny that. In the 1970’s Hubert Lamb was talking of the same blocking patterns being caused by a cooling Arctic.
“So far (unless I have blinked),the Met Office Chairman, Robert Napier (formerly Chief Exec of WWF-UK), has not been doing… “, and
“In other words, it will probably be hot and wet, but they don’t really know. Maybe, Robert Napier should go back to saving polar bears.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Well, judging from the increasing polar bear population numbers we read from time toi time, no-one can deny the man has enjoyed spectacular success with his polar bear campaign. But you really can’t expect to win them all. That is too much to expect! Tough if the Met Office appointment is not working out so well.
Need I say /sarc?
Latitude says:
May 6, 2012 at 5:16 am
““Eric Adler says:
May 5, 2012 at 5:47 pm
For 2011,
================================
That was last year……….you post was about right now………this is 2012”
My post reference last years average data for the latitude bands. The map I referred to was for March of this year which showed the same phenomen – a region in the Arctic that had warmed greatly surrounded by a region at lower latitudes that had warmed less or had not warmed at all relative to the base period.
The idea that the weakening jet stream is causing blocking patterns is accepted by all meteorologists. There are 3 different studies that pinned this on the warming of the Arctic relative to the lower latitudes. The fact that the increase in temperature in the Arctic is faster than lower latitudes is a very solid trend. This does not get reversed in a few months.
Your post is an example of cognitive dissonance – a failure to accept reality because it conflicts with your opinion.
Eric Adler says:
May 6, 2012 at 6:21 am
There are 3 different studies that pinned this on the warming of the Arctic relative to the lower latitudes. The fact that the increase in temperature in the Arctic is faster than lower latitudes is a very solid trend. This does not get reversed in a few months.
Your post is an example of cognitive dissonance – a failure to accept reality because it conflicts with your opinion.
==============================================
ROTFL……
So last year it was caused by less ice and warmer temperatures…
….and this year it’s caused by more ice and colder temperatures
One of the most amusing things about the Met Office is them importing Australian terminology to talk about the UK. In Australia, they can go years of drought and then have serious flooding, particularly in the mountains of SE Australia which feed the Murray Darling. There ‘runoff’ is a real issue because they can easily have 10 inches of rain in a major storm and the slopes of the mountains around the riverheads is significant. They really do have bone dry ground which takes a few inches to even penetrate beyond the topsoil, they have far more heat than we have and their droughts last decades not two years.
For those of you not from the UK, East Anglia (basically NE of London) is in drought but it is unlikely to experience ‘runoff’ issues for one simple reason.
THE WHOLE BLOODY AREA IS TOTALLY FLAT!!!!!
We have had 5 major rainfall events (for the UK, anything more than 15mm or just over half an inch) since the end of March and our soil is what might be called ‘nice and wet’. After the last three, we have had standing water both on the soil and on gravel front gardens and there has been no heat to magically evaporate it all away quick. We have had some wind which has evaporated some, but there IS NO ROCK HARD GROUND!!!!
In other words, it’s about time people saw the Met Office as part of the EU Social Engineering Programme rather than as serious long-term weather forecasters.
Please keep reporting scientific truth about the UK drought. It’s a shame we have to ask American friends to do it, but the attitudes over here is: ‘if they complain, tell the truth for a few days. Then go back to spouting nonsense.’
And we wonder why we’re going bankrupt as a nation????