Readers may recall how the Met Office botched yet another forecast, calling for drought but instead getting a month of deluge. Here’s the numbers.
By Paul Homewood
The UK Met Office have just released their weather data for April, which confirms just how wet and cold the month has been. With an average of 126.5mm of rain, this has been the wettest April on records which go back to 1910. It was also the coldest since 1989, 0.65C colder than the 1971-2000 average.
This, of course, is in stark contrast to the 3 month outlook the Met Office issued on 23rd March, which told us that :-
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION: The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.
and
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The UK-average temperature forecast for spring (April-May-June) shows a range of possible outcomes that are warmer than the range observed between 1971 and 2000 (our standard climatological reference period), but quite similar to the last decade. For April the forecast also favours temperatures being warmer than the 1971-2000 reference period.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/q/A3-layout-temp-AMJ.pdf
So far (unless I have blinked),the Met Office Chairman, Robert Napier (formerly Chief Exec of WWF-UK), has not been doing the round of TV studios to apologise for getting things so badly wrong. But what about the longer perspective, with parts of England still officially in drought?
Figure 1 shows annual rainfall trends up to the end of 2011. The last 2 years have been dry, but are similar to many earlier years in the record, while the long term trend is remarkably stable.
Figure 1
Further analysis on the 2011 numbers by season and also by region is available here. (Again, this analysis shows that there is not much happening with long term rainfall trends and also that there was nothing particularly unusual about 2011).
Figure 2 shows the cumulative rainfall totals in England & Wales for January – April, both for this year and the 1971-2000 average. In most parts of the country, rainfall has been close to normal. Only the West and Wales have had significantly low levels, but these areas have not been in drought and generally receive much higher amounts of rain than the rest of the country anyway. Figure 3 gives the cumulative amounts for the last 16 months. (The 1971-2000 average is also for 16 months, i.e. January – December PLUS January – April). The areas mainly affected by drought (as the map below indicates) are the Midlands, East Anglia and South East, and rainfall levels since January 2011 are down by 19%, 18% and 15% respectively, but close to normal this year.
Figure 2
Figure 3
Forecast for May/June/July
The Met Office have also recently issued their 3 month outlook for May to July. For temperatures, they have this to say.
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The balance of probability, both for May and the period May-June-July 2012, favours UK-averaged temperatures above the 1971-2000 climate mean, but in line with those observed over the last ten years. However, predictability for both periods tends to be low, with current forecasts indicating greater-than-average uncertainty in UK weather patterns as early as the beginning of May. May is also a month where there can still be large swings in temperature depending on the prevailing wind direction and so cold spells are still possible despite the most likely scenario being for above-normal temperatures. The probability that the UK-mean temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/d/A3-layout-temp-MMJ.pdf
And precipitation.
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION: For UK-average rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above normal values during both May and May-June-July. However, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant probability of below normal rainfall. Whilst the wet weather of recent weeks will have had a positive effect on soil moisture, with all that that implies for agriculture, it is unlikely to have had a significant impact on groundwater supplies. With the forecast for May and May-June-July not favouring a continuation of the current very wet spell, groundwater resources in southern, eastern and central England are very unlikely to recover during this period. The probability that UK-average rainfall for May-June-July will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 15%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/l/A3-layout-precip-MJJ.pdf
In other words, it will probably be hot and wet, but they don’t really know. Maybe, Robert Napier should go back to saving polar bears.
“and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.”
Hold on you skeptics, we’ve just gotten into the forecast. April could still be the driest of the 3 months.
Piers Corby warned them, he was pilloried and ridiculed.
he WAS RIGHT! and others used his work and didnt have the decency to credit where due!
intereted readers can see his forecast, his warning and the rest at weather action.com
and there is a post here I remember seeing that linked to the UK papers that ran the items he released as a public service to try and help beforehand.
It’s bloody cold now! Forecast for tonight has temperature dropping to -5C in some areas.
Coldest April since ’89? Just wait until that CO2 kicks in! Then we’ll see it warm up! It’s just around the corner! You’ll see! Bawhahaha!
For UK-average rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above normal values during both May and May-June-July. However, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant probability of below normal rainfall” and “The balance of probability, both for May and the period May-June-July 2012, favours UK-averaged temperatures above the 1971-2000 climate mean, but in line with those observed over the last ten years. However, predictability for both periods tends to be low, with current forecasts indicating greater-than-average uncertainty in UK”
In other words, this means it will be hot/cold and wet/dry with a good chance of above/below normal values in all/some regions.
Piers Corbyn was correct!
he copped flack for foregoing his fees for info and warning people as a public service to try and help limit harm.
the papers and other weather outfits owe him apologies and credit where due!
amazing how they can about face and use his info with no compunction…scum!
weatheraction.com has a post on it worth a read:-)
You know, I’m pretty impressed, and convinced that they are right : it will indeed be hot and dry – or cold and wet, or hot and wet, or middling and dry, or …
All you doubters here must surely now see that they can really forecast weather (and doubtless climate too) with uncanny accuracy and near 100% reliability!
The Met Office use the same software to predict the 100 year AGW forecast and the short term forecast, so no surprices there.
And on the water shortage in SE UK you can pin this down to population growth not being matched with water storage facilities, some of them have been sold off for housing !!!!! so they are now flooded !!!!
Met Office double speak:
These guys would put lawyers to shame.
Remember the coldest winter in UK for over 100 years when the Met Office forecasted mild. When will the Met Office realise what most of us realise already: Their climate computer models have a warming bias / drying bias. That’s why they keep months ahead forecasting wrong.
By the way in the UK people have learned over the years to prepare for the EXACT OPPOSITE of their forecasts. I lived their for many years.
LOL. Good one. 😉
If it does turn out to be the driest of the 3 months then guess what? Blame global warming. Heads they win tails they win. Even coin standing on the edge they win.
Thanks as always for the excellent topics posted at WUWT.
You all noticed the little dig here, The balance of probability, both for May and the period May-June-July 2012, favours UK-averaged temperatures above the 1971-2000 climate mean, but in line with those observed over the last ten years.They are saying above average long-term temps, but only average considering the HOT last ten years. So which of you has the data for UK long term vs the past decade? Was the UK warmer in the past decade vs. 1971 to 2000? That’s what they are saying with this catty little note. Right? Wrong?
Like Environment Canada, the UK Met Office does not have a clue with weather past about 3 days. Even EC’s storm warning predictions this winter were utterly incompetent..and they were issued just a few hours before storms that never happened. From November to April, southern Alberta was issued six or seven major (red banner) winter storm warnings, with each warning predicting 10 to 15 cm of snow. They predicted between about 60 and 100 cm of snow in these six or seven storms for Lethbridge. We got about 10 or 15 cm in total for all “storms”. As I recall, a couple of the storms were practically snowless. WUWT? Complete failure, to the point if being possibly a safety concern since their warnings will make people complacent. They have lost any credibility they ever had in predicting short-term weather.
I wonder if the Met Office has acknowledged there faux pas of prediction of the drought? Or are heads buried in sand.
“their” not there…..gosh!! pardon svp
The drought and water usage restrictions were announced by water companies early in March.
Any chance you can show the the rainfall trend up to March, i.e. excluding the record high rainfall in April?
Can a professional translator please translate the quotes above from the Met Office into English? Oh, don’t worry I’ll have a go.
Clive says:
‘the UK Met Office does not have a clue with weather past about 3 days.’
I think that is being very generous. Yesterday morning I watched a forecast that said it would be just cloudy all day where I am. I looked out of the window to see it piddling down with rain.
Clive says:
May 5, 2012 at 8:20 am
Two days ago, the forecast for Saturday in Calgary was mainly sunny, high range between 13 and 16 C, depending on info source. It is snowing so heavily this morning that I cannot do the work in my yard that I had planned. The moisture is more than welcome, as we are considered,”semi-arid desert”.
Well, my friends in the UK, clean and press those coats and stow them away for the summer. The MET has spoken.
Thanks, Paul – nice work.
Paul suggests:
“Maybe, Robert Napier should go back to saving polar bears.
Not a chance. Didn’t they all die already?
Oh! Sorry, they and the penguins are doing fine.
Maybe Robert could usefully include the remainder of the archipelago – that pale green blob over to the west – in their maps and forecasting and start an uprising for which he could be long remembered. Maybe they don’t have sufficient computational capacity.
The BBC weather lady claims this weekend will be colder than Christmas!
Look, don’t be so critical all you “sceptics”! They are going to get it right one of these times! We just can’t predict when!
Betting is legal in the UK, so a little wager on when the MET will tag a long term forcast sounds interesting. I suspect it’s already being done – I hear you folks bet on everything….
It was also the coldest since 1989
=================================
Impossible, warmer air holds more moisture………………………………/snark
Just another instance of why they deserve such large salaries and big bonuses – by this I mean the bosses of this shambles.
As so often with otherwise baffling political decisions in the UK, the EU lurks in the shadows:
“We’ve seen a perversity creep into UK policy where, instead of dealing with local water shortages by increasing storage capacity, government is preventing these shortages from being resolved, and is then seeking to reduce consumption. Now we see where this is coming from.
“In order to come to grips with water scarcity and droughts”, says the commission, “the first priority is to move towards a water efficient and water-saving economy”. What the commission decided, the UK government has adopted.
(…)
Basically, price is to be used as the primary tool of water management. No longer is it the function of water companies to provide adequate supplies of clean water at minimum cost. The task is to reduce demand, thereby saving energy and reducing carbon footprints.
Of course, if water becomes too plentiful and there is no need for rationing, extreme water-saving measures could not be implemented and consumer resistance to price rises would be difficult to overcome.
Therefore, in implementing EU policy, it has become government strategy deliberately to maintain a climate of shortage, and an atmosphere of crisis. The consumer is being given the choice between standpipes and higher prices, which makes paying more seem a better option. But it is an artificial choice, engineered for doctrinal reasons rather than necessity.”
More at:
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=82616
I wonder if it will ever occur to them that if they take the pre-programmed allowance for AGW out of their computer program that they might get forecasts somewhat closer to reality ….
I should have said in my above post that despite the heavy rain we are still going to be subjected to water restrictions for at least months to come because, despite massively increased need for water in the South East, not least because successive governments have refused water company proposals to create extra reservoirs since the 1970s.
The reasoning behind the otherwise baffling refusals (of course hidden from the electorate) is EU policy.