Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
From the “weather is not climate” department, the sea ice is in early and thick in Alaska. It makes me shiver just to look at the picture. They had to use an icebreaker to get fuel to Nome.
Figure 1. The Bering Sea region in Alaska. Anchorage is at the upper right. The Aleutian peninsula and chain runs down to the lower left. Ice covers all of Bristol Bay, and extends well out from the shore to the west. Photo Source
I fished commercially up there, in the Bering Sea. I’ve lived in a container in the Peter Pan Cannery boatyard in Dillingham, and gill netted for the noble salmon in Bristol Bay, drunk too much and worked it off laughing in a blazing hot steam bath with some Yupik guys trying to roast me out the door by cranking up the heat. I’ve made great money in driving sleet arguing with the herring regarding the eventual fate of their roe in Togiak, and seen the walrus hauled ashore in their thousands on Round Island. Those fisheries kill a man or two a year, plus the usual crushed hands and feet and the like. But I haven’t fished the January Bering Sea crab fishery, the one made famous as “The Deadliest Catch”. Figure 1 shows why I don’t do that.
The Bering Sea ice this year is in early, and it’s thick. Not only that, it’s moving south fast. The crab fleet has some $8 million dollars of gear in the water, and the ice is moving south at twenty miles a day. Usually ice comes in later and thinner, and moves south at three miles a day. Boats are tied up to the Dutch Harbor docks. At St. Paul Island, out of the photo to the left, the crab boats usually sell their loads to the processor boats. It is also totally iced in. Millions of dollars have already been sunk into moving the crab boats and the processor boats and the crab pots to Dutch. If this cold continues, the season will likely be a total bust.
My point in this post? Awe, mostly, at the damaging power of cold. As a seaman, cold holds many more terrors than heat. When enough ice builds up on a boat’s superstructure, it rolls over and men die. The sun can’t do that. The Titanic wasn’t sunk by a heat wave.
The thing about ice? You can’t do a dang thing about it. You can’t blow up a glacier, or an ice sheet like you see in the Bering Sea above. You can’t melt it. The biggest, most powerful icebreaker can’t break through more than a few feet of it. When the ice moves in, the game is over.
Now me, I’m a tropical boy. My feeling is that well-behaved ice sits peacefully in my margarita glass, making those lovely cold drips run down the outside, and giving me a brain freeze when I hold the glass to my forehead.
But when ice jumps out of my glass and starts running all around painting the landscape white and solidifying the ocean and falling on my head and freezing my … begonias, well, at that point the fun’s over. I call that “water behaving badly”.
And if you want to worry about a climate related occurrence, I certainly wouldn’t worry about the dread Thermageddon™, the long-foretold and ever-receding premature heat-death of civilization.
I’d worry about water behaving badly …
Best of the cold to my friends in Alaska, stay safe on the ocean, and my regards to all,
w.

Louise says:
January 27, 2012 at 1:04 pm
I have yet to see any reliable statistics that enable us to see whether a warmer or colder climate will lead to more deaths (across the globe) in the future.
Louise, For christ sake get a grip. 10s of thousands died in france!!! Ok let’s just try to educate you a little. I’m a municipal councillor in france and am well aware of the problems caused by the summer of, wait for it, 2003. There were an ESTIMATED 11000 deaths which were attributed to the heat in Paris and other major cities ( not the countryside). Most deaths occured in August when the french leave the cities in droves to go to the countryside leaving the elderly and infirm at home. Some of those attribute to heat were of the old folk falling down stairs trying to get water and the rest were of old folk who didn’t get enough water. As a result of these deaths the French gov introduced a new tax of 0.5% of taxable income to pay for soin à domicile during August. Home visit nurses. The average summer temperature (july august) in Paris was about 30°C so not incredibily hot. Elsewhere, where I live me saw temps touching 41°C with low humidity and even for an old guys like me it wasn’t sudden death. However, I suggest you go and look at the British gov site for deaths during Dec 2011 and winter 2010 and winter 2009. You will come to see that cold is many times more dangerous than hot. You will find info eleswhere showing crop losses to cold as opposed to hot (note hot not dry, plants don’t like dry). Last year 2011 we had 2 days of 40°C here with no discernable problems but 5 months of dry with killed several of my trees.
Well Robert at 20miles/day the ice will reach Hawai’i around August.
And we’re still doomed!
Back when Hansen was pitching the Coming Ice Age, we had a couple winters that were cold enough in the continental US to convince people he was right. I remember ice in the dog’s water dish — which was sitting in the kitchen — and frozen pipes and having to get into the house over an inch-thick sheet of ice while having casts on both of my feet.
Gimme warmer over colder any day.
Kim2000
Do you have anything based on science rather than anecdote to say?
People die due to heat and due to cold. Not many people die of sunstroke in the Arctic or frostbite in the Sahara. People die in Northern Europe due to heat and due to cold (air conditioning is still rare, central heating is standard).
Should the average temperature increase by 2C will more people die due to increased heat than no longer die due to cold?
Can anyone point to any scientific studies in this area?
Louise
Is this? If it is not, please detail what would be enough.
Otherwise there is no point in talking.
Louise, it’s also worth noting that the French have the highest average age in europe.
Excellent post, though I also wonder about 20 mph–that would be nearly 500 miles a day. Twenty miles a day, though slower, is still very impressive: 5/6 of a mile per hour (about 4400 feet), over 70 feet a minute, over a foot a second; that’s fast!
I also know and can testify, from my own limited experience, how difficult it is to overcome cold, ice, and snow. This winter has been (so far) blessedly mild in Virginia. While I can’t count on that regime’s continuation, I can be thankful for lower electric bills and no hazardous snow-shoveling.
Louise
January 27, 2012 at 1:04 pm
I have yet to see.
###
Your right.
Stephen Richards – I have looked at seasonal deaths due to cold in the UK. The statistics include things like flu and novovirus which are more prevalent in winter. Very few of the UK deaths are due to hypothermia (contrary to the popular media). Clearly this is a similar issue to that you see on France. Summer deaths in the elderly were not as a direct result of individuals overheating. In the UK, winter deaths include old people slipping on ice and breaking hips that then lead to immobility and pneumonia.
I can see your point of view – can you not see mine?
The media tell us heat kills old people in France whilst at the same time it tells us that cold kills old people in UK. It’s all hype. The truth is much more subtle.
I would still like some actual facts – not media hype, does anyone have any?
@ur momisugly Jenn Oates, you’re doing just fine.
At least you know what you don’t know. (Shades of Rumsfelt.)
Oh! Bye the way, you can’t be over educated. The crime is when you use your education to try to remove editors and try to get them kicked out of university.
Regards,
Ed Moran.
Louise,
I don’t have a link to give you but it should not be too hard to find information.
But, just think about this. It’s very clear that life flourishes in the spring and summer and that as winter approaches, life slows down and creatures have to put on layers of fat and store away food and hibernate to make it through the winter. And that you need far more calories to survive in the cold than in the heat. The climate models predict it will be Siberia and the Arctic that warm up the most. Healthy people can freeze to death at 50 degrees F without enough food. But healthy people in the shade will not be bothered that much by 100 F (this is +/- 25 F from a comfortable 75 F) and will require much less food to survive than at 50 F. You can take off most of your clothes at 100 F to cool off or splash water on your self. At 50 F, you need extra food, warmer clothes and the expenditure of energy (fire, etc.) to stay alive if it drops 10 F at night. When it drops 10 F from 100 to 90, you are fine. This is just common sense and common experience, it is not rocket science.
If the growing seasons in northern US and Canada become a few weeks longer, might this not compensate for effects due to increased drought in the southern US? If you are going to speculate, you need to speculate about the good and the bad, not just doom and gloom. I think that is the point many of us make.
OT
Huge solar X-flare on the way
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray_1m.gif
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2012/c2/20120127/20120127_1838_c2_512.jpg
8364khz
That thing you’re trying to remember. It’s erm, hold on, I had it a minute ago, erm… Mother, whats for tea? What do you mean I was emailing somebody? When?
@ur momisugly Ed Moran
By the way, I’m his wife not his Mother.
Linda.
Sea ice expanded in a similar fashion about 4100-2500 years ago ( the so-called “Neoglacial” period) – only it kept happening for more than 2000 years and blew as far south as Dutch Harbour.
Sea ice at this time not only extended down to Dutch Harbour but it stayed well into summer. If such conditions occurred again now, even temporarily, it would keep northern fur seals from reaching their breeding grounds on the Pribilof Islands (St. Paul and St. George). Males start arriving in early May on and pregnant females arrive in late June-July to give birth and mate. Sea ice around the island definitely impedes this.
So watch the ice extent in late April-early May and see if we hear about fur seals in trouble.
see article in the journal ‘The Holocene’ 2007 (SJ Crockford and SG Frederick), ‘Sea ice expansion in the Bering Sea during the Neoglacial: evidence from archaeozoology.’ vol. 17 (issue 6), pg. 699-706
Alaska related by a bit of a reach.
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/5471088-post11.html
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) says:
“Well Robert at 20miles/day the ice will reach Hawai’i around August.
And we’re still doomed!”
Well maybe it has. We are having snow in New Zealand to low levels in January. That’s supposed to be mid summer.
Loise quotes “tens of thousands of elderly french people died as a direct consequence of a particularly warm summer” – I’m not sure it was that many BUT the major reason was undoubtedly the design of accomodation. Masonry buildings with little ventilation can become uncomfortable during periods of extreme heat and people tend to ignore precautions like remaining hydrated.
Places where heat is the norm do not have the same consequences.
As a citizen of the sub-tropics who has experienced the freeze of Alaska I’ll take the warmth over the cold anyday even though my Scottish ancestry means I suffer in the humidity and heat.
Without energy it is easier to survive the heat – given at least 12 hours is “cooler” – than it is to survive extreme cold.
Louise
Re Statistics on deaths to cold vs warmth. See:
Ch 9 Human Health Effects, Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change, Interim Report 20119.1. Temperature-Related Human Mortality p 362
With supporting references etc.
SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
Robert Frost (of all names!), 1920
Louise try BMJ
http://www.bmj.com/content/321/7262/670.full
Brian in Bellingham says:
January 27, 2012 at 11:49 am
“It will be interesting to watch Deadliest Catch this year when they show that part of it. Frustrated crabbers talking about how cold it is, how they have never seen ice this far south, wondering where “global warming is”, etc. Might be an eye opener for people who don’t pay attention to what is really going on and only get their information from the MSM.”
NASA will pay to have the entire fleet relocated to tropical waters where they will fish for marlin instead of crab.
That’s the reason Gore and crew are heading to Antartica!
In early 1200s we had to abandon “wineland”(New foundland etc and Greenland because of the colder climate. To cold for the crops.
Norske Vikinger overlever alt, også klimaskifter.
Question: What has Willis not done and where has he not been?
I’m amazed at your depth of experience Mr. Eschenbach.
One message to Mr. Eschenbach: This piece is cherrypicking and nothing more.
If one wants a more complete picture on sea ice. Take a look at:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png
I wonder what sea ice extent will be at its lowest point in summer 2012.