By Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell Analytics
When the PDO turned cold, most of the meteorological and climate community understood that the pattern was turning very similar the last time of the PDO reversal, the 1950s, and it was a matter of time before the global temperatures, which have leveled off, would start falling in the same herby jerky fashion they had risen when the PDO turned warm at the end of the 1970s. I am not going to rehash the sordid details of how the AGW crowd simply ignores the major drivers of a cyclical nature. We all know that. Nor am I going to question them as to why they believe a trace gas like CO2 (needed for life on the planet) with a specific gravity of 1.5 as compared to the atmospheres 1.0, was going to mix with air in a way to affect the earth’s temperatures. Instead I am going to drive home points I have been making since 2007 and are now dramatically validating.
The La Ninas of 2008-09 and now this one had rapid mid level temperature drops that followed their onset and this years was nothing short of the most dramatic mid tropospheric drop since the start of the millennium. It is much more plausible to believe that rapid cooling in the mid levels would have an effect at leading to extremes, rather than what the warmingistas claim, which of course is anything that happens. In any case, one very interesting level that cooled to record cold levels was 400 mb, the very levels that the so called trapping hot spots were going to show up because of CO2…again a neat trick since somehow CO2 was going to defy the laws of Gravity, since, as mentioned above, its specific gravity is higher than the atmosphere (of course even if it was, it a) has not been proven to cause warming and b) man’s contribution is so tiny as to render it a non item anyway in climate considerations.
However first came the flip in the PDO, seen nicely here on the Multivariate Enso Index chart, which clearly illustrates the colder Pacific when the earth was colder, the start of the warming period coinciding with the satellite era, and now.
Now from the AMSU site, the amazing one year drop in temperature, the orange tan line being after the El Nino of 2009/10, the purplish line this past year and one can see the green this year, we are near record cold levels again.
600 mb (14,000 feet) (enlarged)
And oh my my, the trapping hot spot itself.. 400mb or 25,000 feet… coldest in the entore decade
But the 2 meter temperatures, being in the boundary layer, do not respond as fast as the ocean, or a transparent atmosphere above
Nevertheless three downturns in a jagged fashion started predictably after the last El Nino now falling again in fits and spurts through December.
From Dr Roy Spencer’s site:
(enlarged)
In May, I forecasted the global temperatures to fall to -0.15C in one of the months – Jan, Feb or Mar this year, and perhaps as low as levels we saw in the 2008 La Nina. A rapid free fall has begun. Dr. Ryan Maue at his site (http://policlimate.com/weather/) maintains a plethora of useful forecast information including GFS global temp projections over the next 16 days.
They have been routinely reading greater than 0.2 C below normal and I suspect the Jan reading will plummet quite a bit from December with February even lower. An example of this can be seen with these two charts off Ryan’s site,
-0.258 C globally for 2 meters. (enlarged)
Day 8.5-16 a whopping -0.352 C (enlarged)
The reason the arctic looks warm is that it has been stormy, and when it’s windy the air is well mixed and so the temperatures are not as low as if it’s calm, but it’s still frigid. Notice in the second map, that the arctic cools because the arctic oscillation is starting to go negative, leading to higher pressures and lighter winds. But the most astounding aspect of this is the northern hemisphere mid latitude temperatures, at -2.1 C.
Currently, with gas so high because we are being handcuffed by an administration that won’t drill (if gas was a 1.50 lower, it would be worth a half trillion dollars to the economy) and an EPA that is causing untold economic damage (I would conservatively etiolate a half trillion dollars, from jobs lost to burdensome regulations) along with a 100 billion dollar subsidy to fight global warming world wide, it is costing each ACTUAL TAX PAYER close to 7000 dollars (1.1 trillion divided by 150 million tax payers).
One has to wonder, how even the most dogmatic of them don’t look at the actual facts, how they can continue to carry on their denial while the results of such things handcuff the American economy and cause untold misery for many as our wealth is not only redistributed, but dwindles. One can only conclude this is being done on purpose, and with purpose.
See PDF with enlarged images.
UPDATE: Bob Tisdale disagrees with portions of this analysis and has an essay here.
This chart should be at the top of the article http://icecap.us/images/uploads/gfs_t2m_anom_plan_16.png
And the article should be the opening article for the next week.
Great article, thanks for posting this.
I really miss Joe’s Weekly’s he did at AccuWeather and his regular comments, now supposedly behind the Weatherbell paywall that doesn’t make much sense for people outside the USA.
So I enjoyed this article written in the familiar Bastardi style.
Keep it up and good luck with Weatherbell
AleaJactaEst says:
January 19, 2012 at 5:20 am
an interesting line in the blog there from Joe, and one I would suggest we look into in more earnest – “One has to wonder, how even the most dogmatic of them don’t look at the actual facts, how they can continue to carry on their denial….”
the D word. Perhaps the shoe is fitting the other foot now and it is those with their heads in the sand of CAWG who are indeed the “deniers” Turn their own weapon against them.
I have a problem with this. As Anthony has said on multiple occasions, the word “denier” has the context of Holocaust denier. Although some on the other side are pointing their fingers and yelling “denier”, if we do the same we become like them. Let us not do this. We are above it. Do not stoop to their level. We cannot have a conversation if we are calling each other nasty names.
steven mosher says:
January 19, 2012 at 7:24 am
I see a problem with the physics of how CO2 is supposed to work, particularly p.46 of a report called the ‘Falsification of carbon dioxide’ at http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v4.pdf
so when can we expect a station by station analysis to justify extreme adjustments such as below which apparently Met O has adopted as the “real” Arctic temperatures Hansen has mutilated beyond recognition?
http://www.Real-Science.com/smoking-gun-hansens-arctic-data
This is beyond confirmation bias.
Henry Galt says:
January 19, 2012 at 8:02 am
There is something wrong with that list at: either it is km, not meters (although, measurements at 2400 km height?) or the ppmv’s are relative to the ground level, which is also impossible: the air pressure at 2400 m is less than at sealevel, but not that low. And real measurements at Mauna Loa (3400 m height) are similar as at the Hawaiian sealevel, because ppmv is a ratio between the number of CO2 volume/molecules to total air volume/molecules, not an absolute level…
That’s what I was thinking, Justthinkin.
Interesting post Mr. Bastardi, but I think you should check out the concept of gas diffusion before banging on too much about the specific gravity of CO2 like you expect it to settle at ground level or something.
Your understanding of weather is very enlightening , your grasp of basic physics may leave you open to criticism.
I only read the first three paragraphs of Joe’s post. They prompted me to write a response:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/on-joe-bastardis-post-global-temps-in-a-crash-as-agw-proponents-crash-the-economy/
I’m sure many of you have also noted these errors, but I have not yet scrolled through the comments.
Crashing the economy reduces consumption. While reducing consumption likely won’t affect the climate one bit, we will feel better about ourselves as we won’t be killing the planet as much.
~More Soylent Green!
Hmmm – seems to me that CO2, after being released and along its way to becoming this “well mixed” gas, is subject to its heavier-than-air physical reality, which keeps it lower… again, prior to getting stirred up by wind and mixed.
Coincidentally, at this lower altitude where it has just been emitted from, say, my car’s exhaust pipe or the smokestacks at the local coal-burner, a rather large number of biological agents are greedily consuming the stuff, sucking a good portion of it out of the air before it gets to “mix well”.
This is, actually, the reality. We can sit and calculate the “exact” amount of CO2 that our industry and lifestyle emits… but the reality is that only a portion of what we emit actually mixes and travels higher.
Don’t believe it? Try an experiment my dad performed while camping one time. Actually, it was an involuntary experiment, one of the propane canisters for the lantern didn’t quite go in properly and the entire contents spewed out in like 2 seconds. The resulting propane cloud, which has a mass almost identical to CO2, was visible for some time as it settled into the ditches and hung around at ground level before finally dispersing. We could still smell the stuff in the ditches near our campsite for hours, in spite of a breeze ruffling the nearby trees.
Look, the most damming evidence is the amazing drop in mid trop temps. This is above the boundary layer and it would figure the response against the normal would wait. Moreover, Dr Maue’s site was showing temps through December to be running pretty close to what december turned out to be.
You folks that are coming at me about co2 sg, apparently dont understand that simply put, it does not mix well with air. There was just an article about that here on WUWT. So how do you explain the very level that is supposed to be evidence of the GHG trapping hot spot, 400 mb, has plummeted in almost perfect timing with the la nina that came on. How do you explain, the response now evident in the global temps. And by the way, this is astounding, the Northern hemisphere between 25 and 75 n over a degree below normal, and forecasted to go to 2 below normal. You cant just blow that off, especially when you can see what temps have done in relation to the PDO in the past, and the fact that they have leveled off the last 15 years even as co2 has marched up.
So why is it you demand that I listen to your points, and then say, none of the opposite points that are occurring matter? Why is it that a simple test with objective data over the next 30 years, not proxy tree rings ( btw there is no “hockey stick in China as they have shown.. so I guess its everywhere else) or super Nino hansen readjusting temps, cant be the objective arbiter of this argument And by the way, isnt wishing for el ninos to warm the global temps in effect and admission that its the pacific that is in large part controlling the climate. Are you trying to say the minute amount of co2 in the atmosphere is controlling the tropical pacific temps.
It boggles the mind that you ask me to accept such things, when all I ask is we objectively measure right and wrong. The global temp drop now was right in line with what I forecasted in May, that a drop to one of the 3 months, Jan,Feb or Mar to -.15 c would occur. It is not brain surgery, and its not that I am brilliant, its that anyone that is objective about this can see what is going on.
And anyone objective about would agree to the test of this via objective methods ( satellite) that started when we came out of the last cold period. In the meantime enjoy the 5-6 dollar a gallon gasoline this summer and remember who said that under his plan energy prices would skyrocket, and that our energy secretary said we need gas prices the way that had them in Europe.. at that time around 8 dollars a gallon. I for one took them at their word, and you are seeing the results now, all because of a belief in what may be no more than a Utopian Ghost
Where are the trapping hot spots? How are the land masses of the northern hemisphere getting this cold in relation to norm. How can a warming world allow temperatures to crash to levels already in these area not seen since the last cold PDO. Its not Co2 its called nature, and the first part of it is the reversal of the PDO.
Echoing Alan Clark, three cheers for Canada (I can’t believe I actually said that) – the Knucks exited the Kyoto Protocol. Perhaps Oz can regain sanity, send Julia packing, and dump Kyoto too. Alas, probably no hope for the Kiwis (ovine inbreeding too strong – too ba-a-a-ad ;-> ). We need leadership! It isn’t coming from DC.
Nor Sacramento. I’m watching California implode from ground zero. AB32 (GHG limitations) has barely begun to exert its negative influence on our state economy. Projected deficits are all over the map, but likely $13 billion by June. They say the economy is recovering, but that’s all baloney.
Those in charge have benefitted from the hard work and ingenuity of those who came before. They don’t seem to understand how hard it is to build anything, although they do enjoy burning up other people’s money. And they mistake riding on the momentum of the past success of others for their own skill. They blame the creators for unfair outcome, and take from the very people who normally would get us out of this mess.
Cause and effect are reversed in Govland. In reality, you can’t pass legislation to force companies to pay higher wages, or pay higher taxes, and expect them to grow. As a result, unemployment goes up and tax revenue goes down. But the politicians can claim they worked hard for the people. It’s snake oil for the masses. Don’t you feel better now? No? Well just let me fix that some more for you. Repeat ad infinitum until the system breaks. Then they replace the thing you broke with what they actually wanted from the beginning. That’s how you get disasters like Obamacare, Acorn, entitlements of all kinds, EPA….
Baa-a-a-a.
jjthomas~ As Anthony has had to point out in a number of other articles: what part of ‘Joe Bastardi wrote this’ don’t you get?
On August 14, Joe wrote via Twitter, “August Global temps will start to fall and should be down to .2 above normal from .37 in July. Can see it on Dr Maues sit (link follows)” Well, August temps actually only fell to 0.33 C–a drop of just 0.05 C degrees, and not the 0.18 C JB had predicted.
On September 19, JB wrote via Twitter, “Global temp August: Plus .33 C My forecast for Sept: plus .18C ” Well, the September global temperature was 0.29–a drop of just 0.03, and not the 015 JB had predicted.
The December global temps rose 0.01 degrees from November, as November’s temp was unchanged from October’s–and yet Joe tells us here that “Global temps in a Crash”?
Really?
I’d like to believe Joe, I really would; I’d be among the happiest people on the planet if AGW somehow reversed itself, or–better yet–turned out to be wrong in the first place.
If Joe, or Anthony, or this site’s many users, don’t like the idea of mitigating fossil fuel CO2 and other pollutants for ideological reasons, that’s completely understandable. But shouldn’t people at least try to remain honest and unbiased where actual scientific facts are concerned?
justthinkin: “A 0.00001% increase cause quadrupling of surface temps!” – you got both numbers extravagantly wrong there. Try again.
Mardler: “Mr. Statham – 40% of what, exactly?” – The 40% increase in CO2 since pre-industrial times.
Isonomia says:
January 19, 2012 at 7:33 am
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Insonomia
You are right to be concerned as to the consequences of a colder climate. With modern techology, short of an ice age, this would not be so much of a concern for us. With cheap energy, GM modified crops, fertilizers, greenhouses, insulated barns for live stock etc, we would cope.
However, the problem for us is that the pursuit of green policies has placed us in a position of unreliable energy and expensive energy at that. There will be many who will be unable to properly feed themselves (due to increase in food costs which costs will escalate if the climate gets cold) and/or properly keep themselves warm due to intermitent energy supplies and unaffordable energy costs.
If there is a downturn in global temperatures (as opposed to a simple stalling) over the course of the next 10 to 30 years things could get interesting and there could well be severe political backlash. You can fudge data but neither governments nor scientists can hide the stark reality of a cold house and ever more expensive energy bills. If brownout occur then it will be fun watching the politicians squirm to save their skins. This might be one of the few pleasures available in such circumstances.
Hi Joe!
Thankyou for a refreshing post!
Please dont take it too bad if commentators focus om some details, I´d guess generally they agree that we are headed for cooling, non the less and I think its super that your show the 400mb story.
You write: “However first came the flip in the PDO, seen nicely here on the Multivariate Enso Index chart, which clearly illustrates the colder Pacific when the earth was colder, the start of the warming period coinciding with the satellite era, and now.”
its very true indeed that Cold PDO normally comes with cooling:
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/the-siberian-pacific-climate-pendulum-251.php
(also to be found at jo novas)
Does this indicate that PDO is eventually either Sun or CO2 driven: No.
Or ? The thing is: We now have cold PDO (Indicating cooling) but the highest CO2 levels on record and this is not really a strong indicator for CO2 as driver of PDO. That was the short version :-).
Thankyou for posting Joe, we need people to shout out the essential situation.
K.R. Frank
Alan Statham says:
January 19, 2012 at 9:37 am
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Leaving aside the debate as to whether the IPCC figure for pre-industrial levels of CO2 is correct, you imply (at least from your earlier post) that the increase from these levels is due to man.
However, man only contributes about 3% to the annual CO2 emissions (about 97% of which are natural). It appears that most of the increase in CO2 is simply a consequence of outgasing from warming oceans. It appears that even if man had not been burning fosil fuels much of the 40% increase would in any event have occurred.
Heh one more thing YOU SHOULD MONITOR THESE THINGS YOURSELF. I challenge each and every one of the AGW believers to watch the global temps on Dr Maue’s site ( they come in 4 times a day.. the 1-8 and 8.5 -16 day projections) and at least have the open mindedness to ask how can the pdo crash, the mid levels crash and now this, with the contention that its warming. These are not minor events. The Nov pdo was 4th coldest nov, the nov-dec was 3rd coldest… similar to the 1950s, which is what we are seeing now… (example hurricanes on east coast.. severe Texas drought, Anchorage snow records). ALL THESE THINGS HAPPENED THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED!!. It is astounding that this is either not known, or ignored. But here is the link, and you should be the judge, but for goodness sakes , at least look.
There is record cold at 400mb and 600 mb
and now this.
Is this all just a trick. If you arent looking, then you are hiding FROM THE DECLINE
day 1-8
http://policlimate.com/weather/current/raw_temp_8day_avg.png
day 8.5-16
http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_t2m_anom_plan_16.png
heh anyone wanna bet if it gets that warm in the east, that will be used as evidence for global warming rather than the rest of globe so cold?
There a forecast most of us can agree one
This is right on the money. The AGW movement was hijacked by politics long ago. As to the effects of CO2 on climate, I’m still trying to find it as there is no evidence our climate is warmer or more severe than in previous warm periods. This administration has put green special interests and fascist economics ahead of the good of the nation.
Right on, Joe!
~More Soylent Green!
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE ……..check out Weatherbell , it is well worth the $$$ for a years veiw of the weather from Joe …….. the daily video’s are worth it , but you get a lot more for your bucks .
Carry on the good work Joe ………. give those hamsters an extra lettuce leaf they work so hard.
steven mosher says:
January 19, 2012 at 7:24 am
“From what Joe says about trace gas and from what he says about specific gravity it looks like Joe utterly misunderstands the mechanism of global warming. He thinks C02 traps heat. It doesnt. that is not the theory.”
You don’t get the impression when you read words of world-reknowned warmists like Dessler and North; count with me: “Heat-Trapping Gases”:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/6900556.html
Repeat after me: Warmist scientists say CO2 traps heat.
If this cooling scenario plays out in the medium to longer term we should then be justified in calling those in the AGW team “real deniers” which sort of makes it fair, doesn`t it ?
richard verney: “Leaving aside the debate as to whether the IPCC figure for pre-industrial levels of CO2 is correct”
I am not using any “IPCC figure”.
“you imply (at least from your earlier post) that the increase from these levels is due to man.”
It is.
“However, man only contributes about 3% to the annual CO2 emissions (about 97% of which are natural).”
Irrelevant.
“It appears that most of the increase in CO2 is simply a consequence of outgasing from warming oceans.”
The amount of CO2 in the oceans is going up, not down.
“It appears that even if man had not been burning fosil fuels much of the 40% increase would in any event have occurred.”
No it doesn’t. Isotope evidence proves that fossils fuels are the source of essentially all of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere and in the oceans.
You obviously haven’t even educated yourself to the most basic level about this. Next time you comment, try to think a little instead of simply regurgitating anti-scientific tropes that haven’t even got a shred of credibility.
Guinea Pigs…..not Hamsters ……ooopsss……..the Co2 must be getting to me !!!