From the Institute of Physics
Cold winters caused by warmer summers, research suggests
Scientists have offered up a convincing explanation for the harsh winters recently experienced in the Northern Hemisphere; increasing temperatures and melting ice in the Arctic regions creating more snowfall in the autumn months at lower latitudes.
Their findings may throw light on specific weather incidents such as the extremely harsh Florida winter of 2010 which ended up killing a host of tropical creatures, as well as the chaos-causing snow that fell on the UK in December 2010.
Published today, Friday 13 January, in IOP Publishing’s journal Environmental Research Letters, this new research suggests that the trend of increasingly cold winters over the past two decades could be explained by warmer temperatures in the autumn having a marked effect on normal weather patterns, causing temperatures to plummet in the following winter.
The strongest winter cooling trends were observed in the eastern United States, southern Canada and much of northern Eurasia, which the researchers, based at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), the University of Massachusetts and the University of Alaska Fairbanks, believe cannot be entirely explained by the natural variability of the climate system.
Their results showed strong warming throughout July, August and September in the Arctic, which continued through the autumn and, according to their observational data, appeared to enhance the melting of sea ice.
This warmer atmosphere, combined with melting sea ice, allows the Arctic atmosphere to hold more moisture and increases the likelihood of precipitation over more southern areas such as Eurasia, which, in the freezing temperatures, would fall as snow. Indeed, the researchers’ observations showed that the average snow coverage in Eurasia has increased over the past two decades.
They believe the increased snow cover has an intricate effect on the Arctic Oscillation – an atmospheric pressure pattern in the mid- to high-latitudes – causing it to remain in the “negative phase”.
In the “negative phase”, high pressure resides over the Arctic region, pushing colder air into mid-latitude regions, such as the United States and northern Canada, and giving the observed colder winters.
The lead author of the study, Judah Cohen, said: “In my mind there is no doubt that the globe is getting warmer and this will favour warmer temperatures in all seasons and in all locations; however, I do think that the increasing trend in snow cover has led to regional cooling as discussed in the paper and I see no reason why this won’t continue into the near future. Also if it continues to get much warmer in the fall, precipitation that currently falls as snow will fall as rain instead, eliminating the winter cooling.”
It is also deduced that one of the main reasons conventional climate models fail to pick up on this observed winter cooling is their failure to account for the variability of snow cover, which, as demonstrated in this study, can greatly improve the accuracy of seasonal, and lengthier, forecasts.
“We show in the paper how using the snow cover in a seasonal forecast can provide a more skilful or accurate forecast. Without correctly simulating the coupling of winter climate patterns and the variability of snow fall, the models currently used by Government centres miss an important influence on winter and will therefore continue to be deficient in predicting winter weather on seasonal time scales, and even longer decadal time scales,” continued Cohen.
Jim G says:
All theory (conjecture?), of course, even the idea that there ever was a snow ball Earth.
I was referring to snow’s high albedo, as anyone who has skiied on a sunny day will know about.
Increased snow = cooling = more snow = etc
The snow albedo positive feedback (ie cooling feedback) should operate at any level of snowcover and its a puzzle why it doesn’t cause runaway cooling.
Just for fun I ran up a chart of fall (Sep/Oct/Nov) temperatures vs winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) temps for the state of Washington, using the NCDC figures from 1896 to 2010. Each blue lower dot represents the winter just after the purple fall dot above. (Wash isn’t Arctic, but it’s much more influenced by Arctic events than by tropical events.)
http://ockhamsbungalow.com/blog29/fall-vs-winter-wash-1896-2010.jpg
Some periods of correlation, but mostly not…. and I don’t see any leading or lagging from one year to the next.
Here’s the XLS for completeness:
http://ockhamsbungalow.com/blog29/wash-fall-winter-temp.xls
…and this result was determined by…a computer model? I’m out.
I hope the authors give proper credit to Stephen Foster, for “the sun so hot I froze to death.”
Hmm…
Yet more testiculation!
( hand waving while talkng total B*****cks
Do these (pseudo) scientists actually get paid?
I would like to see Bob Tisdale weigh in on this matter, as it seems to me IMO that a warmer gulf stream could possibly lay the foundation for the effects noted in this study.
extrapolate the theory a bit and I get: The Little Ice Age was a consequence of the Medieval Climate Optimum.
Intrapolate a bit and I get: My refigerator can keep cold by burning a candle inside it.
It’s really a bunch of bull. The Arctic was very warm in late summer/fall 2011… and yet the AO for December was at a record positive value. All while Eurasian snow cover was relatively high while N American snow cover was very low. They just so badly want to tie this to CAGW/GHGs… when the AO is largely driven by other factors like sudden stratospheric warming events which oscillate with the QBO, solar activity which can increase and decrease available ozone in the Arctic regions which sink through the stratosphere and warm the troposphere and promote blocking… and also the PDO, AMO, and ENSO… all of which impact the subtropics and the mid-latitude westerlies over the ocean basins. The very positive AO this winter is likely a myriad of factors including higher solar activity, a westerly QBO transitioning to easterly (westerly promotes less blocking), and the positive SOI/La Niña which enhances the North Pacific gyre and the Southeast ridge. When those are enhanced, the heights have to fall further north in the Arctic… it’s just how it works. You push one button down, the other springs up. Of course the warmer Arctic is increasing snowfall in northern latitudes during winter. Wasn’t there recently a post here that indicated that during the height of the ice age, the whole planet was colder… except the Arctic, which was possibly warmer than it is today?
Well, it will have to get warmer before it snows here in Ottawa tonight. After a couple of days of -20, we have warmed up significantly and are expecting 10 cm. So maybe it is warming that gives us snow…..
For some reason, this sounds exactly like what is needed to make glaciers form in the usual ice age locations….
A bit scary with the tilt, et al, posed for an ice age to start and the sun not exactly robust….
Of course, until the models can explain the Minoan and Roman warm periods and tell us what the preconditions are to get the glaciers started, they are pretty worthless GIGO in my book.
Quebec is in North America and [it] streches from northen [to] southern Canada. [The] recent winters here are not colder They have been remarkably mild. We are in quite a mild winter now
LazyTeenager says:
January 16, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Their findings may throw light on specific weather incidents such as the extremely harsh Florida winter of 2010 which ended up killing a host of tropical creatures, as well as the chaos-causing snow that fell on the UK in December 2010.
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I have a very simple hand waving argument for these cold winters.
…
And so on. This is a falsifiable hypothesis. No magical Rossby waves in sight.
Lazy, you have gotten one thing right. Your Nickname. Get back to us when your scientific method becomes a young adult.
The authors would gain more knowledge if they studied the downstream effects of the AO and jet stream changes during low solar output. If so they would realize a man made component is not necessary.
There is research that suggests changing conditions in the mesosphere and stratosphere brought about by chemical changes from reduced UV output affects the strength of planetary waves, which go on to break up the north polar vortex. Get on board guys and get off the gravy train.
Any story that constantly migrates to a “new position” every time nature disproves its “previous position” cannot long endure. Eventually, even the most gullible listeners must conclude, “This story is just fundamentally false.”
Monty Python would be so lucky to produce such scripts.
LazyTeenager says:
January 16, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Probably “Ahhh more hyperbole and little regard for intellectual precision.”
I don’t get it. First you insult Dr. Ball, then you expect him to answer your questions. Perhaps you can learn a bit about “disagreeing agreeably.”
The biggest problem with this scenario, is the fact that Arctic sea ice is not melting.
Not worth a serious comment.
If it were not already well known this article would have caused rational thinks world wide to simultaneously shout “Correlation is Not Causation!”
To summarize – the event that follows is affected to some degree by events that precede it. By this simple rule we can conclude snowball earth will not fall on the heals by a matter of hours a long stretch of global warming. We can safely infer the oceans will not boil by the end of this century barring some jolt to the ecosystem heretofore unknown. Serial influences go only forward in time. There is no reason to suspect events will repeat at a low level of detail. Butterflies in Brazil do not impact the PDO nor the rate of change of albedo of the hemispheres. Chaos being what it is, blaming butterflies is possibly as close to settled science as GHG impact is on global climate.
Bryan Short (January 16, 2012 at 3:31 pm) wrote:
“it’s just how it works. You push one button down, the other springs up.”
Exactly:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/vaughn_npp_image1.png
LazyTeenager says:
January 16, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Tim Ball says
More proof they know little or nothing about climate, climate mechanisms or climate research.
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Ahhh more hyperbole and little regard for intellectual precision.
What it does prove is that they don’t know everything and they are constantly looking to expand their understanding and so now they know more than they did before.
As thick as a brick is a Lazy Teenager.
The IPPC stated: The science is settled = Nothing left to see = lets commit on the settled science to save the world NOW – err NOW – err no I really mean NOW = 1980 to 2012- 2013… 2050…
Lazy fool you’ll believe any old crap as long as it’s stamped approved by the IPPC.
And Dr Tim Ball has never stated the science is settled. He is to much of a scientist to state such stupidity!!!
But we can always depend on you to expose the soft underbelly of the warmist hoax, even when you think you are standing up from them. Your the warmist gift that keeps on giving.
Headline:
Warmer summers may be causing colder winters
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120114/bc_warm_summers_cold_winters_120114/20120114?hub=BritishColumbiaHome
Article Excerpt:
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“When that oscillation is strong, it creates powerful east-west winds that block cold polar air from drifting south. But when the oscillation is weak, more of that air starts moving north-south, pulling the Siberian High downwards.
“I like to think of Siberia as a refrigerator for the entire northern hemisphere,” Cohen said.
“If you have less snow, it’s like keeping the refrigerator door closed. The cold air stays locked up in the Arctic. But if the snow cover is much more expansive, it’s like opening up the refrigerator door — the cold air spills out into the kitchen.”
Cohen said his group’s work explains why North American winter temperatures and Siberian snowfalls aren’t doing what climate models predict they should.
“The model projections for the other three seasons turned out very good. The one season they’re not doing so well is winter.”
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(bold emphasis added to highlight refrigerator analogy)
Also Noteworthy:
One commenter claims the Spanish Armada is responsible for 1000 years of anthropogenic-CO2-warming.
Since the ‘observational data’ probably has a warming bias there’s no telling how cold it will actually get if it really gets warm.
Paul Vaughn, no surprise here that the CTV article is signed by Bob Weber from the Canadian Press… This journalist is as biased as they come. He reported on Kaufmann’s but never bothered to ever interview Steve McIntyre regarding proxies at Yamal for instance…