Getting the "right kind of people" onboard

This is a repost from Jeff Id’s Air Vent as it needed the wider circulation that WUWT can offer. I’ve also added the update from comment #9 he refers to.

The Right Kind of People

Posted by Jeff Id on November 28, 2011

UPDATE: Reader Stacey left a bomb in #9 of the thread below.

Long time readers here will recognize this theme, new readers can assume it from the URL I’ve been using. The concept of a complete consensus among humans only occurs when a structure bands them together on an opinion. In AGW science, we know for certain that we don’t really know much, therefore a consensus must come from unscientific pressures. I and many others have maintained that government funding has corrupted the science and systematically eliminated dissent at all levels. It is a self-filtering process (not a centrally controlled conspiracy) which ensures that climate scientists have a nearly singular mindset on global warming and a singular cause to crusade for. Scientists are naturally skeptics as the infighting on truly major issues in these emails shows. Discussions are often had in terms of good and bad people, causes and damage. How is it that a paper causes damage? Much of the malfeasance in these emails focuses on mitigation of damage to the ‘message’.

When publicly funded, leaders know that outward appearance is critical to the mission.  In something as big as global warming, the illusion of a perfect consensus must be maintained for the now massive environmental departments and organizations including the IPCC to succeed in their political goals. Probably the single largest message from both climategate releases is the open viewing of the effects this mechanism has on the science itself. Repression of conflicting evidence in exchange for more extreme results.

It is actually humorous reading these guys talk to each other about how skeptics are oil funded and politically motivated followed by the next proposal for 3million euros from the taxpayer. They never seem to notice that the blogs are unfunded or that their cohorts who disagree don’t take oil money and the few who have get values 1/100th of the UEA. There is even an email from Mike Hulme telling greenpeace that the UEA won’t support their extremist attacks on Exxon and a second ‘private’ email telling them that he does. In case you are unaware, Greenpeace has become an openly anti-capitalist group with a stated mission of reigning in capitalism for the purpose of reducing our standards of living. Hulme, and many of his friends, are absolutely political extremists who somehow never seem to notice that they all agree with each other on politics. If you happen to be one who doesn’t agree, well they know how to take care of that little problem.

This first email relates to a paper I haven’t read that very well may have problems, but it shows the filtering process in action. It is a long email but important. I have highlighted a few quotes which help bring my points above into light.

From email #3265

     X-Sender: f037@pop.uea.ac.uk

X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1

Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 09:29:22 +0100

To: c.goodess@uea,phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

From: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>

Subject: Fwd: Re: Climate Research

Clare, Phil,

Since Clare and CRU are named in it, you may be interested in Chris de Freitas’ reply to

the publisher re. my letter to Otto Kinne.  I am not responding to this, but await a

reply from Kinne himself.

Mike

From: “Chris de Freitas”

To: Inter-Research Science Publisher <ir@int-res.com>

Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 13:45:56 +1200

Subject: Re: Climate Research

Reply-to: c.defreitas@auckland.ac.nz

CC: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk

Priority: normal

X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12c)

Otto (and copied to Mike Hulme)

I have spent a considerable amount of my time on this matter and had

my integrity attacked in the process. I want to emphasize that the

people leading this attack are hardly impartial observers. Mike

himself refers to “politics” and political incitement involved. Both

     Hulme and Goodess are from the Climate Research Unit of UEA that is

     not particularly well known for impartial views on the climate change

     debate.  The CRU has a large stake in climate change research funding

     as I understand it pays the salaries of most of its staff.  I

understand too the journalist David Appell was leaked information to

fuel a public attack. I do not know the source

  Mike Hulme refers to the number of papers I have processed for CR

     that “have been authored by scientists who are well known for their

     opposition to the notion that humans are significantly altering

     global climate.” How many can he say he has processed? I suspect the

answer is nil. Does this mean he is biased towards scientists “who

are well known for their support for the notion that humans are

significantly altering global climate?

Mike Hulme quite clearly has an axe or two to grind, and, it seems, a

political agenda. But attacks on me of this sort challenge my

professional integrity, not only as a CR editor, but also as an

academic and scientist. Mike Hulme should know that I have never

     accepted any research money for climate change research, none from

any “side” or lobby or interest group or government or industry. So I

have no pipers to pay.

This matter has gone too far. The critics show a lack of moral

imagination. And the Cramer affair is dragged up over an over again.

People quickly forget that Cramer (like Hulme and Goodess now) was

attacking Larry Kalkstein and me for approving manuscripts, in

     Hulme’s words,  “authored by scientists who are well known for their

     opposition to the notion that humans are significantly altering

     global climate.”

I would like to remind those who continually drag up the Cramer

affair that Cramer himself was not unequivocal in his condemnation of

Balling et al’s manuscript (the one Cramer refereed and now says I

should have not had published – and what started all this off). In

fact, he did not even recommend that it be rejected. He stated in his

review: “My review of the manuscript is mainly with the conclusions

of the work. For technical assessment, I do not myself have

sufficient experience with time series analysis of the kind presented

by the authors.” He goes on to recommend: “revise and resubmit for

additional review”. This is exactly what I did; but I did not send it

back to him after resubmission for the very reason that he himself

confessed to ignorance about the analytical method used.

Am I to trundle all this out over and over again because of criticism

from a lobbyist scientists who are, paraphrasing Hulme, “well known

for their support for the notion that humans are significantly

altering global climate”.

The criticisms of Soon and Baliunas (2003) CR article raised by Mike

Hume in his 16 June 2003 email to you was not raised by the any of

the four referees I used (but is curiously similar to points raided

by David Appell!). Keep in mind that referees used were selected in

consultation with a paleoclimatologist. Five referees were selected

based on the guidance I received. All are reputable

paleoclimatologists, respected for their expertise in reconstruction

of past climates. None (none at all) were from what Hans and Clare

     have referred to as “the other side” or what Hulme refers to as

     people well known for their opposition to the notion that humans are

     significantly altering global climate.” One of the five referees

turned down the request to review explaining he was busy and would

not have the time. The remaining four referees sent their detailed

comments to me. None suggested the manuscript should be rejected. S&B

were asked to respond to referees comments and make extensive

alterations accordingly. This was done.

I am no paleoclimatolgist, far from it, but have collected opinions

from other paleoclimatologists on the S&B paper. I summarise them

here. What I take from the S&B paper is an attempt to assess climate

data lost from sight in the Mann proxies. For example, the raising on

lowering of glacier equilibrium lines was the origin of the Little

Ice Age as a concept and still seems to be a highly important proxy,

even if a little difficult to precisely quantify.

Using a much larger number of “proxy” indicators than Mann did, S&B

inquired whether there was a globally detectable 50-year period of

unusual cold in the LIA and a similarly warm era in the MWP. Further,

they asked if these indicators, in general, would indicate that any

similar period in the 20th century was warmer than any other era.

S&B did not purport to do independent interpretation of climate time

series, either through 50-year filters or otherwise. They merely

adopt the conclusions of the cited authors and make a scorecard. It

seems pretty evident to me that temperatures in the LIA were the

lowest since the LGM. There are lots of peer-reviewed paleo-articles

which assert the existence of LIA.

Frankly, I have difficulty understanding this particular quibble.

Some sort of averaging is necessary to establish the ‘slower’ trends,

and that sort of averaging is used by every single study – they

average to bring out the item of their interest. A million year

average would do little to enlighten, as would detailed daily

readings. The period must be chosen to eliminate as much of the

‘noise’ as possible without degrading the longer-term signals

significantly.

As I read the S&B paper, it was a relatively arbitrary choice – and

why shouldn’t it be? It was only chosen to suppress spurious signals

and expose the slower drift that is inherent in nature. Anyone that

has seen curves of the last 2 million years must recognize that an

averaging of some sort has taken place. It is not often, however,

that the quibble is about the choice of numbers of years, or the

exact methodology – those are chosen simply to expose ‘supposedly’

useful data which is otherwise hidden from view.

Let me ask Mike this question. Can he give an example of any dataset

where the S&B characterization of the source author is incorrect? (I

am not vouching for them , merely asking.)

S&B say that they rely on the original characterizations, not that

they are making their own; I don’t see a problem a priori on relying

on characterizations of others or, in the present circumstances, of

presenting a literature review. While S&B is a literature review, so

is this section of IPCC TAR, except that the S&B review is more

thorough.

The Mann et al multi-proxy reconstruction of past temperatures has

many problems and these have been well documented by S&B and others.

My reading of the IPCC TAR leads me to the conclusion that Mann et al

has been used as the basis for a number of assertions: 1. Over the

past millennium (at least for the NH) the temperature has not varied

significantly (except for the European/North Atlantic sector) and

hence the climate system has little internal variability. This

statement is supported by an analysis of model behaviour, which also

shows little internal variability in climate models. 2. Recent global

warming, as inferred from instrument records, is large and unusual in

the context of the Mann et al temperature reconstruction from multi-

proxies. 3. Because of the previous limited variability and the

recent warming that cannot be explained by known natural forcing

(volcanic activity and solar insolation changes) human activity is

the likely cause of the recent global change.

In this context, IPCC mounts a powerful case. But the case rests on

two main foundations; the past climate has shown little variability

and the climate models reflect the internal variability of the

climate system. If either or both are shown to be weak or fallacious

     then the IPCC case is weakened or fails.

S&B have examined the premise that the globally integrated

temperature has hardly varied over the past millennium prior to the

instrumental record. I agree it is not rocket science that they have

performed. They have looked at the evidence provided by researchers

to see if the trend of the temperature record of the European/North

Atlantic sector (which is not disputed by IPCC) is reflected in

individual records from other parts of the globe (Their three

questions). How objective is their assessment? From a purely

statistical viewpoint the work can be criticised. But if you took a

purely statistical approach you probably would not have sufficient

data to reach an unambiguous conclusion, or you could try statistical

fiddles to combine the data and end up with erroneous results under

the guise of statistical significance. S&B have looked at the data

and reached the conclusion that probably the temperature record from

other parts of the globe follows the same pattern as that of the

European/North Atlantic sector. Of the individual proxy records that

I have seen I would agree that this is the case. I certainly have not

found significant regions of the NH that were cold during the

medieval period and warm during the Little Ice Age period that are

necessary offsets of the European/North Atlantic sector necessary to

reach a hemispherically flat pattern as derived by Mann et al.

S&B have put forward sufficient evidence to challenge the Mann et al

analysis outcome and seriously weaken the IPCC assertions based on

Mann et al. Paleo reconstruction of temperatures and the global

pattern over the past millennium and longer remains a fertile field

for research. It suggests that the climate system is such that a

major temporal variation as is universally recognised for the

European/North Atlantic region would be reflected globally and S&B

have given support to this view.

     It is my belief that the S&B work is a sincere endeavour to find out

     whether MWP and LIA were worldwide phenomena. The historical evidence

     beyond tree ring widths is convincing in my opinion. The concept of

     “Little Ice Age” is certainly used practically by all Holocene paleo-

     climatologists, who work on oblivious to Mann’s “disproof” of its

     existence.

Paleoclimatologists tell me that, for debating purposes, they are

more inclined to draw attention to the Holocene Optimum (about 6000

BP) as an undisputed example of climate about 1-2 deg C warmer than

at present, and to ponder the entry and exit from the Younger Dryas

as an example of abrupt climate change, than to get too excited about

the Medieval Warm Period, which seems a very attenuated version.

However, the Little Ice Age seems valid enough as a paleoclimatic

concept. North American geologists repeatedly assert that the 19th

century was the coldest century in North America since the LGM. To

that extent, showing temperature increase since then is not unlike a

mutual fund salesmen showing expected rate of return from a market

bottom – not precisely false, but rather in the realm of sleight-of-

hand.

Regards

Chris

His email exposes not only how he has been attacked but the general weakness of our understanding of extreme warming – which is the real reason for the vehement attacks. In another email (#3052), the correct reaction to this paper was discussed extensively by the ‘in crowd’.– my bold again.

cc: n.nicholls@bom.gov.au, Peter.Whetton@csiro.au, Roger.Francey@csiro.au, David.Etheridge@csiro.au, Ian.Smith@csiro.au, Simon.Torok@csiro.au, Willem.Bouma@csiro.au, j.salinger@niwa.com, pachauri@teri.res.in, Greg.Ayers@csiro.au, Rick.Bailey@csiro.au, Graeme.Pearman@csiro.au, mmaccrac@comcast.net, tcrowley@duke.edu, rbradley@geo.umass.edu

date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 11:21:50 +1200

from: j.salinger@niwa.co.nz

subject: Another course of Action – Recent climate sceptic research and the

to: Barrie.Pittock@csiro.au, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, Barrie.Pittock@csiro.au, mann@virginia.edu, Phil Jones, harvey@geog.utoronto.ca, wigley@ucar.edu, n.nicholls@bom.gov.au

Dear All

For information, De Freitas has finally put all his arguments

together in a paper published in the Canadian Bulletin of Petroleum

Geology, 2002 (on holiday at the moment, and the reference is at

work!)

I have had thoughts also on a further course of action. The present

Vice Chancellor of the University of Auckland, Professor John Hood

(comes from an engineering background) is very concerned that

Auckland should be seen as New Zealand’s premier research

university, and one with an excellent reputation internationally. He

is concerned to the extent that he is monitoring the performance of

ALL his senior staff, from Associate Professor upwards, including

interviews with them. My suggestion is that a band of you review

editors write directly to Professor Hood with your concerns. In it

you should point out that you are all globally recognized top

climate scientist. It is best that such a letter come from outside

NZ and is signed by more than one person. His address is:

Professor John Hood

Vice Chancellor

University of Auckland

Private Bag 92019

Auckland, New Zealand

Let me know what you think! See suggested text below.

Regards

Jim

Some suggested text below:

***************

We write to you as the editorial board(review editors??) of the

leading international journal Climate Research for climate scientists

….

We are very concerned at the poor standards and personal biases

shown by a member of your staff. …..

When we originally appointed … to the editorial board we were

under the impression that they would carry out their duties in an

objective manner as is expected of scientists world wide. We

were also given to understand that this person has been honoured

with science communicator of the year award, several times by

your … organisation.

Instead we have discovered that this person has been using his

position to promote ‘fringe’ views of various groups with which

they are associated around the world. It perhaps would have been

less disturbing if the ‘science’ that was being passed through

the system was sound. However, a recent incident has alerted us

to the fact that poorly constructed and uncritical work has been

allowed to enter the pages of the journal. A recent example has

caused outrage amongst leading climate scientists around the

world and has resulted in the journal dismissing (??).. from the

editorial board.

We bring this to your attention since we consider it brings the

name of your university and New Zealand into some disrepute. We

leave it to your discretion what use you make of this

information.

The journal itself cannot be considered completely blameless in

this situation and we clearly need to tighten some of our

editorial processes; however, up until now we have relied on the

honour and professionalism of our editors. Sadly this incident

has damaged our faith in some of our fellow scientists.

Regrettably it will reflect on your institution as this person is

a relatively senior staff member.

********************

>

>

> At 16:19 17/04/03 +1000, Barrie.Pittock@csiro.au wrote:

> >Dear all,

> >

> >I just want to throw in some thoughts re appropriate responses to all

> >this – probably obvious to some of you, but clearly different from

> >some views expressed. This is not solely a reply to Phil Jones, as I

> >have read lots of other emails today including all those interesting

> >ones from Michael Mann.

> >

> >1. I completely understand the frustration by some at having to

> >consider a reply to these nonsense papers, and I agree that such

> >replies will not get cited much and may in fact draw attention to

> >papers which deserve to be ignored.

> >

> >2. However, ignoring them can be interpreted as not having an answer,

> >and whether we ignore them or not, there are people and lobby groups

> >which will push these papers as ‘refereed science’ which WILL be

> >persuasive to many small or large decision-makers who are NOT

> >competent to make their own scientific judgements, and some of whom

> >wish the enhanced GH effect would turn out to be a myth. In our

> >Australian backwater for example, such papers WILL/ARE being copied

> >to business executives and politicians to bolster anti-FCCC

> >decisions, and these people do matter. There has to be a well-argued

> >and authoritative response, at least for private circulation, and as

> >a basis for advice to these decision-makers.

> >

> >3. I see several possible courses of action that would be useful. (a)

> >Prepare a background briefing document for wide private circulation,

> >which refutes the claims and lists competent authorities who might be

> >consulted for advice on this issue. (b) Ensure that such misleading

> >papers do not continue to appear in the offending journals by getting

> >proper scientific standards applied to refereeing and editing.

> >Whether that is done publicly or privately may not matter so much, as

> >long as it happens. It could be through boycotting the journals, but

> >that might leave them even freer to promulgate misinformation. To my

> >mind that is not as good as getting the offending editors removed and

> >proper processes in place. Pressure or ultimatums to the publishers

> >might work, or concerted lobbying by other co-editors or leading

> >authors. (c) A journalistic expose of the unscientific practices

> >might work and embarass the sceptics/industry lobbies (if they are

> >capable of being embarassed) e.g., through a reliable lead reporter

> >for Science or Nature. Offending editors could be labelled as “rogue

> >editors”, in line with current international practice? Or is that

> >defamatory? (d) Legal action might be useful for authors who consider

> >themselves libelled, and there could be financial support for such

> >actions (Jim Salinger might have contacts here). However, we would

> >need to be very careful to be moderate and reasonable in our reponses

> >to avoid counter legal actions.

> >

> >4. I thoroughly agree that just entering in to a public slanging

> >match with the offending authors (or editors for that matter) on a

> >one-to-one basis is not the way to go. We need some more concerted

> >action.

> >

> >5. One other thought is that it may be worthwhile for some authors to

> >do a serious further study to bring out some statistical tests for

> >the likelihood of numerous proxy records showing unprecedented

> >synchronous warming in the last 30+ years. This could be, somewhat

> >along the lines of the tests used in the studies of observed changes

> >in biological and physical systems in the TAR WGII report(SPM figure

> >1 and related text in Chapter 19, and recent papers by Parmesan and

> >Yohe (2003) and Root et al. (2003) in Nature 421, 37-42 and 57-60).

> >Someone may already have this in hand. I am sure the evidence is even

> >stronger than for the critters. That is of course what has already

> >been done in fingerprinting the actual temperature record.

> >

> >Anyway, I am not one of the authors, and too busy (for a retired

> >person), so I hope you can collectively get something going which I

> >can support.

> >

> >Best regards to all,

> >

> >Barrie.

> >

> >Dr. A. Barrie Pittock

> >Post-Retirement Fellow, Climate Impact Group

> >CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB 1, Aspendale 3195, Australia

> >Tel: +613 9239 4527, Fax: +61 3 9239 4688, email:

> > WWW:

> >http://www.dar.csiro.au/res/cm/impact.htm

> >

> >Please Note: Use above address. The old >barrie.pittock@dar.csiro.au> is no longer supported.

> >

> >Currently I am working on a couple of books and other writing re

> >climate change and science issues. Please refer any matters re the

> >Climate Impact Group to Dr. Peter Whetton, Group Leader, at

> >, tel.:

> >+61 3 9239 4535. Normally I am in the lab Tuesdays and Thursdays.

> >

> >”Far better and approximate answer to the right question which is

> >often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question which can

> >always be made precise.” J. W. Tukey

> >

> >

> >—–Original Message—–

> >From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]

> >Sent: Wednesday, 16 April 2003 6:23 PM

> >To: Mike Hulme; Barrie.Pittock@csiro.au

> >Cc: n.nicholls@bom.gov.au; Peter.Whetton@csiro.au;

> >Roger.Francey@csiro.au; David.Etheridge@csiro.au; Ian.Smith@csiro.au;

> >Simon.Torok@csiro.au; Willem.Bouma@csiro.au; j.salinger@niwa.com;

> >pachauri@teri.res.in; Greg.Ayers@csiro.au; Rick.Bailey@csiro.au;

> >Graeme.Pearman@csiro.au Subject: Re: Recent climate sceptic research

> >and the journal Climate Research

> >

> >

> >

> > Dear All,

> > There have been a number of emails on these two papers. They

> > are bad.

> >I’ll be seeing

> > Hans von Storch next week and I’ll be telling him in person what a

> >disservice he’s doing

> > to the science and the status of Climate Research.

> > I’ve already told Hans I want nothing more to do with the

> > journal. Tom

> >Crowley may be

> > writing something – find out also next week, but at the EGS last

> > week Ray

> >Bradley, Mike

> > Mann, Malcolm Hughes and others decided it would be best to do

> > nothing.

> >Papers

> > that respond to work like this never get cited – a point I’m

> > trying to

> >get across to Hans.

> > We all have better papers to write than waste our time responding

> > to

> >drivel like this.

> >

> > Cheers

> > Phil

>

> Prof. Phil Jones

> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090

> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784

> University of East Anglia

> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk

> NR4 7TJ

> UK

> ———————————————————————-

> ——

>

>

*********************************************************

Dr Jim Salinger, CRSNZ

NIWA

P O Box 109 695

Newmarket, Auckland

New Zealand

Tel + 64 9 375 2053 Fax + 64 9 375 2051

e-mail: j.salinger@niwa.co.nz

**********************************************************

Now even if the paper was bad, you can see the extremeness of the team response to it.   I can tell readers from my own experience in publication that even papers with ‘less’ global warming message are forcefully resisted by some.  I have also been privy to other paper’s reviews which suffer the forceful gatekeeping as is implied above.  If the authors truly did make an honest attempt at publishing as DeFreitas wrote, and it truly was accepted by four reviewers, even if it had a mistake, can you imagine the difficulty they will now have in promotions or acceptance of future work in their field?   I wonder if the huge climate funds will still find their way to them or if their proposals will fall on deaf ears?

There are literally mountains of similar emails.  So many that I can’t even begin to discuss them. Of course, feel free to copy your own on-topic ones below.  If you select the right data as paleoclimate does by standard practice, you get the predicted result.

If you select the right people…..

================================================================

UPDATE: Comment #9 below. Reading his response to Kinne, I think Mike Mann has the same sort of problems Captain Queeg did.

Stacey said

November 28, 2011 at 3:36 pm

Dear Jeff ID

The following email trail shows the Teams response after having complained about Dr deFreitas they are written to by Otto Kinne who has investigated their complaint and states he is satisfied with the handling of a paper submitted to CR.

They conspire to bring down a commercial organisation because it publishes things they don’t like?

Mann and Hume seem thick as theives and one wonders are they the controlling minds on both sides of the atlantic.

I drew Dr deFreitas’s attention to the following and he did respond you may find him responsive to you.

Sorry how the emails are presented.

Regards

S

date: Thu, 03 Jul 2003 21:27:32 -0400

from: “Michael E. Mann”

subject: Re: Fwd: Climate Research

to: Mike Hulme , p.jones@uea.xxxxxx, wigley@ncar.xxxxxx

Thanks Mike

It seems to me that this “Kinne” character’s words are disingenuous, and he probably

supports what De Freitas is trying to do. It seems clear we have to go above him.

I think that the community should, as Mike H has previously suggested in this eventuality,

terminate its involvement with this journal at all levels–reviewing, editing, and

submitting, and leave it to wither way into oblivion and disrepute,

Thanks,

mike

At 01:00 PM 7/3/2003 +0100, Mike Hulme wrote:

Phil, Tom, Mike,

So, this would seem to be the end of the matter as far as Climate Research is concerned.

Mike

To

CLIMATE RESEARCH

Editors and Review Editors

Dear colleagues,

In my 20.06. email to you I stated, among other things, that I would ask CR editor

Chris de Freitas to present to me copies of the reviewers’ evaluations for the 2 Soon et

al. papers.

I have received and studied the material requested.

Conclusions:

1) The reviewers consulted (4 for each ms) by the editor presented detailed, critical

and helpful evaluations

2) The editor properly analyzed the evaluations and requested appropriate revisions.

3) The authors revised their manuscripts accordingly.

Summary:

Chris de Freitas has done a good and correct job as editor.

Best wishes,

Otto Kinne

Director, Inter-Research

–

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