From New Zealand Climate Change, this goes beyond “noble cause corruption”. This is outright malicious interference with the scientific process, and it’s damned ugly. I can’t imagine anyone involved in professional science who could stand idly by and not condemn this.
– Anthony
Climategate 2 and Corruption of Peer Review
The post here is a follow-up from my last post on some Climategate 2 emails, which I have tied together into a kind of narrative. Why should you read this? It is very simple. There are plenty of articles, views etc. out there claiming that the climategate 2 emails are being taken out of context. I have also seen Phil Jones has been saying that it is just the normal ‘to and fro’ of normal scientists going about their business etc. etc.
This is most certainly not the case in the emails that follow. There really is no hiding place for the authors, and no ambiguity. The emails will track how annoyance at the publication of a ‘contrary’ article in a journal develops into an attack on the editor, Chris de Freitas, an accomplished scientist. The attack includes a plot to see if they can get him sacked from his job at University of Auckland. Within the story, it is evident exactly what kind of ‘scientists’ the key authors are. The word scientist applied to these people has denigrated the meaning of the word.
Amongst those involved are Phil Jones, Michael Mann, Jim Salinger, Tom Wigley, Barrie Pittock, Mike Hulme + others. In addition Pachauri, the head of the IPCC is copied into many of the emails, meaning that he was fully aware that some of the key scientists in the IPCC were effectively out of control.
The post is very long, but please stick with it. The story unfolds, and is worth the effort if you really want to see what is going on. When quoting the emails, I do so minus annoying symbols such as >>>. Where I am commenting within the email text, I place the text as [this is my comments], and any bold text is my emphasis.
The starting point is email 2683, from 12 April 2003 when there is grumbling about a paper by Soon & Baliunas (S&B) published in the journal Climate Research (abreviated to CR in the emails). There is some discussion of the S&B study, and Mike Hulme discusses the potential of the paper on the thoughts of policymakers with Barrie Pittock:
Yes, this paper has hit the streets here also through the London Sunday Telegraph. Phil Jones and Keith Briffa are pretty annoyed, and there has been correspondence across the Atlantic with Tom Crowley and Ray Bradley. There has been some talk of a formal response but not sure where it has got to. Phil and Keith are really the experts here so I would leave that to them. Your blow by blow account of what they have done prompts me again to consider my position with Climate Research, the journal for whom I remain a review editor. So are people like Tim Carter, Nigel Arnell, Simon Shackley, Rob Wilby and Clare Goodess, colleagues whom I know well and who might also be horrified at this latest piece of primary school science that Chris de Freitas from New Zealand has let through (there are a good number of other examples in recent years and Wolfgang Cramer resigned from Climate Research 4 years ago because of it).
I might well alert these other colleagues to the crap science CR continues to publish because of de Freitas and see whether a collective mass resignation is appropriate. Phil Jones, I believe, is already boycotting reviews for that journal.
The first point to note is their concern is as much about the impact upon policy as it is about the science. This will become important for setting the context for the progressive process in which they eventually seek to destroy the career of the offending editor.We then get a response from Salinger, in response to Pittock’s call for someone to ‘take up the gauntlet’:
Dear Mike, Barrie, Neville et al
Saturday morning here and thanks for all your efforts. I note the reference to Chris de Freitas. Chris writes very voluminously to the NZ media and right wing business community often recycling the arguments of sceptics run overseas, which have been put to bed.
I, personally would support any of these actions you are proposing particularly if CR continues to publish dishonest or biased science. This introduces a new facet to the publication of science and we should maybe have a panel that ‘reviews the editors’. Otherwise we have the development of shonkey editors who then manipulate the editing to get papers with specific views published. Note the
immediacy that the right wing media (probably planned) used the opportunity!
Your views appreciated – but I can certainly provide a dossier on the writings of Chris in the media in New Zealand.
There are several points of note here. First of all, the positioning of de Freitas as being part of a right-wing, and there is even suggestion of a conspiracy. Finally, just to demonstrate that de Freitas is an ‘outsider’, Salinger will produce the evidence. Having a different view, it seems, is condemnation. Pittock then responds to Salinger:
Thanks for your comments and suggestions. I hope the co-editors of ‘Climate Research’ can agree on some joint action. I know that Peter Whetton is one who is concerned. Any action must of course be effective and also not give the sceptics an excuse for making de Freitas appear as a martyr – the charge should surely be not following scientific standards of review, rather than publishing contrarian views as such. If a paper is contested by referees that should at least be stated in any publication, and minimal standards of statistical treatment, honesty and clarity should be insisted on. Bringing the journal and publisher into disrepute may be one reasonable charge.
‘Energy and Environment’ is another journal with low standards for sceptics, but if my recollection is correct this is implicit in their stated policy of stirring different points of view – the real test for both journals may be whether they are prepared to publish refutations, especially simultaneously with the sceptics’ papers so that readers are not deceived.
On that score you might consider whether it is possible to find who de Freitas got to review various papers and how their comments were dealt with. I heard second hand that Tom Wigley was very annoyed about a paper which gave very low projections of future warmings (I forget which paper, but it was in a recent issue) got through despite strong criticism from him as a reviewer.
Here we have our first indications that de Freitas may be about to face problems.
Excerpts:
People with bona fide scientific background should not review articles, as they might actually accept them for publication.
…
… is it not partially the responsibility of climate science to make sure only satisfactorily [agreeing with their views] peer-reviewed science appears in scientific publications?
…
We Australasians (including Tom as an ex pat) have suggested some courses of action. Over to you now in the north to assess the success of your initiatives, the various discussions and suggestions and arrive on a path ahead. I am happy to be part of it.
Again, good science is the science that agrees with their own views. Bad science is to take an opposing view. ‘Purity of science’ is taken to mean ‘agreeing with my views’. Again, this is disturbing, but more disturbing is the moral righteousness that leads towards the comment that Salinger is happy to be part of it.
…
Also assessing copyright as the ‘other’ Soon/Baliunas paper in Energy and Env. is essentially the same as that in CR. Hans wanted to try this first, but didn’t want to tell all what he was doing. Fears a backlash if de Freitas gets removed without due cause. So let’s all try and keep the emails down, and hope we can report something to all once the correspondence Hans initiates gets replies.
Here, they are trying to get de Freitas through other means, which is copyright violation.
…
This is all very tragic. I will, if I have time, try to finish the story, or others may want to take it forwards if they have the time or inclination. What I do know is that this particular case appears to be one of the most clear and damning I have yet seen with regards to the ‘team’ seeking to stifle debate, and ultimately destroy the scientific process. It is just all the more shocking for the tribalistic hounding of Chris de Freitas.
Read the full article here.
If you would like to see the next section of the story, it can be found here. It is even more damning, an excerpt:
email 4808.
Phil Jones is following up on the email of Mann, in which he proposes writing a letter to the other editors of Climate Resarch, asking for the editors to resign in protest at de Freitas being an editor.
Did anything ever come of this? [the email to the CR editors]
Clare Goodness was in touch w/ me indicating that she had discussed the matter w/ Von Storch, and that DeFrietas would be relieved of his position. However, I haven’t heard anything. A large segment of the community I’ve been in contact with feels that this event has already done its damage, allowing Baliunas and colleagues to attempt to impact U.S. governmental policy, w/ this new weapon in hand–the appearance of a legitimate peer-reviewed document challenging some core assertions of IPCC to wave in congress. They appear to be making some headway in using this to influence U.S. policy, which makes our original discussions all the more pressing now.
In this context, it seems important that either Clare and Von Storch take imminent action on this, or else actions of the sort you had mentioned below should perhaps be strongly considered again. Non-action or slow action here could be extremely damaging.I’ll forward you some emails which will indicate the damage that the publication has already caused.
Thanks very much for all your help w/ this to date, and for anything additional you may be able to do in this regard to move this forward.
UPDATE: Dr. Chris de Freitas has responded here, well worth a read.
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@BigWaveDave:
I’m coming to this conversation a bit late, but: it’s pretty simple to show that the SURFACE temperature IR doesn’t matter much to earth cooling. What matters is IR dump from way high in the air. (Surface IR gets absorbed pretty quick… that whole ‘greenhouse gas’ thing 😉
BUT, once absorbed, it turns into convection that strongly dominates. Air rises to altitude and dumps heat inside of HOURS, not days and certainly not decades…
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/28/ignore-the-day-at-your-peril/
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/does-convection-dominate/
that references http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/31/68/93/PDF/angeo-19-1001-2001.pdf
which is well worth a read…
Basically, the notion that SURFACE IR matters is completely daft.
RE: BigWaveDave: (December 8, 2011 at 4:22 pm)
“The atmosphere is heated mostly by the sun and a little by the surface. There is no physical basis for your S-B mathematical construct at the surface.”
While it may be true that a large portion of the long-wave energy radiation from the Earth actually originates from the atmosphere, I think you are ignoring the fact that the atmosphere is being heated by surface contact and convection as well as by greenhouse gas absorption of surface radiation.
The Stefan Boltzmann law is only limited by surface reflectivity, (albedo) if you ignore the energy that is being returned from the air by back radiation (B-R). In one typical fixed-temperature example, MODTRAN shows 428.61 W/m² flowing up (S-B) and 365.496 W/m² flowing down (B-R) for a net 63.114 W/m² flowing out at the surface, but at 18 km up, we see 292.993 W/m² flowing up and 9.433 W/m² flowing down for a net 283.56 W/m² flowing out. Since the atmosphere cannot support, by solar energy absorption, the radiation of this much energy, it must cool and eventually drop down to the surface or mix with rising air to be re-heated.
BigWaveDave: I can’t even understand what you are arguing for anymore…but whatever it is seems to bear little resemblance to actual physics.
Joel Shore;
In your description of the process, you are calculating an energy flux from an average surface temperature. This by itself is invalid, as the average temperature will not yield the same result as the integral over Earth’s surface of all or the fluxes from individual temperatures.
Further, by presuming that the temperature is controlled by radiation, you are ignoring the transport of heat by convection, of which a significant portion is the convection of latent heat.as water vapor evaporated at the surface, which condenses and releases heat at higher altitudes.
Nice try to invert reality, Anthony.
The truth is that the “tribalistic corruption of peer review” happened at the hands of de Freitas.
Soon and Baliunas is only one of the scientifically flawed papers de Freitas managed to channel through the peer-review process (not to mention his ability to block scientific rebuttals to these papers). There are another 14 cases of “Pal Review at Climate Research” verifiably at the hands of Chris de Freitas. Here is the 21 page summary, explaining in excruciating detail how de Freitas executed “pal-review” at Climate Research in favor of “skeptic” papers :
http://www.desmogblog.com/skeptics-prefer-pal-review-over-peer-review-chris-de-freitas-pat-michaels-and-their-pals-1997-2003
Now, I understand that I am posting on WUWT, and that many of you do not like to see that the title of Anthony’s post turn out to be inverted reality. So if you reply to this post, please address the facts presented in John Mashey’s research paper (and present disputing facts), rather than handwaving at emails and ad hominems. Thank you !
Rob Dekker said:
So, he’s not an idiot.
The emails clearly state that the issue is bad science and terrible peer-review standards, and that this has allowed shonky work to get into the literature.The ‘interpretations’ given by the author of the above article are fabrications made out of whole cloth.
I can’t understand why anyone would think the emailers are not genuinely disgusted by the quality of the science. Here are some excerpts.
barry’s tribalism is on display. He continues to carry water for his mendacious tribe of scientific charlatans.
Instead of complaining to each other in emails that someone else has a different point of view, those faux scientists should submit comments to the journals that published Dr de Freitas’ papers. Then Dr de Freitas could respond. That’s how it’s supposed to work in honest peer review.
But in climate “science”, it’s not peer review, it’s pal review, and the Mann/Jones clique has perverted it through scientific misconduct. There are literally hundreds of emails verifying that fact. Unfortunately, that disclosure has no effect on cognitive dissonance-afflicted water boys, who see only what they want to see.
I was just thinking, Smokey, that each time I read an email, then a skeptic review of it, there is this huge leap of logic and an alternate reality is formed. This is what happened with climategate 1. Couple that with a visceral desire amongst skeptics to torch climate scientists and the strange reality being created makes sense.
I’m pleased to see my ‘tribalism’ term is being lobbed back at me. Must have hit a nerve. As I’ve said before, I don’t care about Mann or Briffa or whoever, and I don’t think it matters whether the MWP was warmer than today or not. The only dog I have in this race is a love for proper skepticism and critical thinking. Consequently, your criticism is ad hom, because you characterise me in order to refute my points.If you refuted my points and then characterised me negatively as a result, that would not be ad hom.
Have you noticed that I don’t call people names here? Name-calling is a strong sign to me that the commenter probably got nothing more worthwhile to say.
barry refuses to face reality: the climate pal review system has been corrupted, as hundreds of Climategate emails show. That’s barry’s tribe, so no matter how much barry’s tribe engages in scientific misconduct, he has no choice but to carry water for them. But where does that leave honest science?
*****
BigWaveDave says:
December 8, 2011 at 8:41 pm
Joel Shore;
In your description of the process, you are calculating an energy flux from an average surface temperature. This by itself is invalid, as the average temperature will not yield the same result as the integral over Earth’s surface of all or the fluxes from individual temperatures.
Further, by presuming that the temperature is controlled by radiation, you are ignoring the transport of heat by convection, of which a significant portion is the convection of latent heat.as water vapor evaporated at the surface, which condenses and releases heat at higher altitudes.
*****
Exactly. The heat-engine that is the weather has its temp mostly controlled by convection & Hadley circulation, and radiation at the TOA (and atmospheric lapse-rate) is controlled by that, not the other way around.
Cause and effect.
BigWaveDave says:
I’ve clearly explained this to you multiple times: The integral over the Earth’s surface necessarily leads to an equal or higher value than using the Earth’s average temperature…for ANY temperature distribution that you might imagine. If you don’t believe this, try to come up with a distribution that violates this mathematical theorem.
I have also clearly explained this to you multiple times: Other methods of heat transport away from the surface only increase the difference between what the earth absorbs and what heat is being transferred away from the surface. So, the violation of energy conservation only gets more severe.
Joel Shore said:
Really? Where? Wouldn’t this be also true for the upper atmosphere temperature? How do the correct values of the two compare?
What mathematical theorem are you talking about?
What violation of energy conservation?
Are you saying that unless the Earth’s surface temperature averages -18°C, there is a violation of energy conservation?
BigWaveDave says:
Mentioned here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/27/the-tribalistic-corruption-of-peer-review-the-chris-de-freitas-incident/#comment-822395
More detail here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/27/the-tribalistic-corruption-of-peer-review-the-chris-de-freitas-incident/#comment-823177
The ~240 W/m^2 number is obtained as the amount of radiation that the Earth system absorbs from the sun…Then the fact that this corresponds to an effective blackbody temperature of 255 K is calculated from that. And, actually, for the Earth the distribution in temperature is narrow enough on an absolute temperature scale that the difference in radiative emission between considering the full distribution and using the average temperature to determine the emission amounts to only a small error (about 5 W/m^2, as I recall from Trenberth & Kiehl).
According to Gerlach & Tscheuschner (one of the few useful things in their nutty paper), it is a special case of Holder’s Inequality ( http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v4.pdf , p. 64), although I think it could probably also be proved from simpler considerations.
Yes…For the Earth with its current albedo (so that it is absorbing ~240 W/m^2) and emissivity near unity in the infrared, the average temperature would have to be -18°C or colder if the atmosphere of the Earth were transparent to the radiation from the Earth’s surface. Otherwise, the Earth would be emitting back out into space more energy than it and its atmosphere receives from the sun and it would rapidly cool down. (There are other caveats…If the there were other sources of energy, such as if the Earth were generating significant internal heat or if the Earth and/or its atmosphere were undergoing continual gravitational collapse, then it could be warmer…but these don’t apply.)
Joel Shore,
Perhaps if we were dealing with linear heat to temperature relationships there might be enough validity to use your method as an estimate, but we shouldn’t bet our lives on it.
You also say:
and had said:
So, If the temperature at the surface of an Earth with the same amount of atmosphere, but no “GHG’s” were -18°C, then the upper troposphere would be at ~-51°C, right?
Also, with or without Holder’s formula ; an estimate can’t be valid without having all of the temperatures for each of all equal fractions of the total surface.
But, no average temperature works for Earth because water content in air varies. And, water has enormous heats of evaporation (1000’s X) and solidification (100’s X) in addition to its generally 2 to 4 times the specific heat of air..
BigWaveDave says:
You are just floundering here. I have explained to you very clearly what the bounds are on the emission given the average temperature and roughly how much things change if you do take into the actual temperature distribution. You are just desperately trying to grasp onto anything you can to deny reality. That is not skepticism.
None of this changes the fact that an Earth with an IR-transparent atmosphere would have to be at least 33 C colder to satisfy energy conservation. To the extent that such an earth had larger temperature swings, then that would only increase the 33 C difference, i.e., the average temperature would have to be even colder than 255 K.
Where the troposphere ends is not simply determined by the amount of atmosphere. So, offhand I don’t know what the temperature of the upper troposphere would be. In fact, an atmosphere without GHGs would be much different because such an atmosphere wouldn’t have any way to shed energy to space. Some have argued that the atmosphere would tend toward a nearly-isothermal state. I would have to think more about this to have an informed opinion. However, the temperature at the earth’s surface can be determined unambiguously because that is what would be set by simple global energy balance considerations.
Joel Shore said:
No, I’m just pointing out how unphysical and unscientific it is to be using S-B and and average temperature from a sparse sample of measurements taken near the surface of a 25% to 30% fraction of the of the surface that is land, to calculate energy flux; when the variation in energy flux is dominated by the transport of water, not radiation.
The lapse rate will be -g/Cp whether the atmosphere is transparent to IR or not. But, the fact is that no components of the atmosphere are completely transparent to IR, and the atmosphere is mostly heated from above.