From New Zealand Climate Change, this goes beyond “noble cause corruption”. This is outright malicious interference with the scientific process, and it’s damned ugly. I can’t imagine anyone involved in professional science who could stand idly by and not condemn this.
– Anthony
Climategate 2 and Corruption of Peer Review
The post here is a follow-up from my last post on some Climategate 2 emails, which I have tied together into a kind of narrative. Why should you read this? It is very simple. There are plenty of articles, views etc. out there claiming that the climategate 2 emails are being taken out of context. I have also seen Phil Jones has been saying that it is just the normal ‘to and fro’ of normal scientists going about their business etc. etc.
This is most certainly not the case in the emails that follow. There really is no hiding place for the authors, and no ambiguity. The emails will track how annoyance at the publication of a ‘contrary’ article in a journal develops into an attack on the editor, Chris de Freitas, an accomplished scientist. The attack includes a plot to see if they can get him sacked from his job at University of Auckland. Within the story, it is evident exactly what kind of ‘scientists’ the key authors are. The word scientist applied to these people has denigrated the meaning of the word.
Amongst those involved are Phil Jones, Michael Mann, Jim Salinger, Tom Wigley, Barrie Pittock, Mike Hulme + others. In addition Pachauri, the head of the IPCC is copied into many of the emails, meaning that he was fully aware that some of the key scientists in the IPCC were effectively out of control.
The post is very long, but please stick with it. The story unfolds, and is worth the effort if you really want to see what is going on. When quoting the emails, I do so minus annoying symbols such as >>>. Where I am commenting within the email text, I place the text as [this is my comments], and any bold text is my emphasis.
The starting point is email 2683, from 12 April 2003 when there is grumbling about a paper by Soon & Baliunas (S&B) published in the journal Climate Research (abreviated to CR in the emails). There is some discussion of the S&B study, and Mike Hulme discusses the potential of the paper on the thoughts of policymakers with Barrie Pittock:
Yes, this paper has hit the streets here also through the London Sunday Telegraph. Phil Jones and Keith Briffa are pretty annoyed, and there has been correspondence across the Atlantic with Tom Crowley and Ray Bradley. There has been some talk of a formal response but not sure where it has got to. Phil and Keith are really the experts here so I would leave that to them. Your blow by blow account of what they have done prompts me again to consider my position with Climate Research, the journal for whom I remain a review editor. So are people like Tim Carter, Nigel Arnell, Simon Shackley, Rob Wilby and Clare Goodess, colleagues whom I know well and who might also be horrified at this latest piece of primary school science that Chris de Freitas from New Zealand has let through (there are a good number of other examples in recent years and Wolfgang Cramer resigned from Climate Research 4 years ago because of it).
I might well alert these other colleagues to the crap science CR continues to publish because of de Freitas and see whether a collective mass resignation is appropriate. Phil Jones, I believe, is already boycotting reviews for that journal.
The first point to note is their concern is as much about the impact upon policy as it is about the science. This will become important for setting the context for the progressive process in which they eventually seek to destroy the career of the offending editor.We then get a response from Salinger, in response to Pittock’s call for someone to ‘take up the gauntlet’:
Dear Mike, Barrie, Neville et al
Saturday morning here and thanks for all your efforts. I note the reference to Chris de Freitas. Chris writes very voluminously to the NZ media and right wing business community often recycling the arguments of sceptics run overseas, which have been put to bed.
I, personally would support any of these actions you are proposing particularly if CR continues to publish dishonest or biased science. This introduces a new facet to the publication of science and we should maybe have a panel that ‘reviews the editors’. Otherwise we have the development of shonkey editors who then manipulate the editing to get papers with specific views published. Note the
immediacy that the right wing media (probably planned) used the opportunity!
Your views appreciated – but I can certainly provide a dossier on the writings of Chris in the media in New Zealand.
There are several points of note here. First of all, the positioning of de Freitas as being part of a right-wing, and there is even suggestion of a conspiracy. Finally, just to demonstrate that de Freitas is an ‘outsider’, Salinger will produce the evidence. Having a different view, it seems, is condemnation. Pittock then responds to Salinger:
Thanks for your comments and suggestions. I hope the co-editors of ‘Climate Research’ can agree on some joint action. I know that Peter Whetton is one who is concerned. Any action must of course be effective and also not give the sceptics an excuse for making de Freitas appear as a martyr – the charge should surely be not following scientific standards of review, rather than publishing contrarian views as such. If a paper is contested by referees that should at least be stated in any publication, and minimal standards of statistical treatment, honesty and clarity should be insisted on. Bringing the journal and publisher into disrepute may be one reasonable charge.
‘Energy and Environment’ is another journal with low standards for sceptics, but if my recollection is correct this is implicit in their stated policy of stirring different points of view – the real test for both journals may be whether they are prepared to publish refutations, especially simultaneously with the sceptics’ papers so that readers are not deceived.
On that score you might consider whether it is possible to find who de Freitas got to review various papers and how their comments were dealt with. I heard second hand that Tom Wigley was very annoyed about a paper which gave very low projections of future warmings (I forget which paper, but it was in a recent issue) got through despite strong criticism from him as a reviewer.
Here we have our first indications that de Freitas may be about to face problems.
Excerpts:
People with bona fide scientific background should not review articles, as they might actually accept them for publication.
…
… is it not partially the responsibility of climate science to make sure only satisfactorily [agreeing with their views] peer-reviewed science appears in scientific publications?
…
We Australasians (including Tom as an ex pat) have suggested some courses of action. Over to you now in the north to assess the success of your initiatives, the various discussions and suggestions and arrive on a path ahead. I am happy to be part of it.
Again, good science is the science that agrees with their own views. Bad science is to take an opposing view. ‘Purity of science’ is taken to mean ‘agreeing with my views’. Again, this is disturbing, but more disturbing is the moral righteousness that leads towards the comment that Salinger is happy to be part of it.
…
Also assessing copyright as the ‘other’ Soon/Baliunas paper in Energy and Env. is essentially the same as that in CR. Hans wanted to try this first, but didn’t want to tell all what he was doing. Fears a backlash if de Freitas gets removed without due cause. So let’s all try and keep the emails down, and hope we can report something to all once the correspondence Hans initiates gets replies.
Here, they are trying to get de Freitas through other means, which is copyright violation.
…
This is all very tragic. I will, if I have time, try to finish the story, or others may want to take it forwards if they have the time or inclination. What I do know is that this particular case appears to be one of the most clear and damning I have yet seen with regards to the ‘team’ seeking to stifle debate, and ultimately destroy the scientific process. It is just all the more shocking for the tribalistic hounding of Chris de Freitas.
Read the full article here.
If you would like to see the next section of the story, it can be found here. It is even more damning, an excerpt:
email 4808.
Phil Jones is following up on the email of Mann, in which he proposes writing a letter to the other editors of Climate Resarch, asking for the editors to resign in protest at de Freitas being an editor.
Did anything ever come of this? [the email to the CR editors]
Clare Goodness was in touch w/ me indicating that she had discussed the matter w/ Von Storch, and that DeFrietas would be relieved of his position. However, I haven’t heard anything. A large segment of the community I’ve been in contact with feels that this event has already done its damage, allowing Baliunas and colleagues to attempt to impact U.S. governmental policy, w/ this new weapon in hand–the appearance of a legitimate peer-reviewed document challenging some core assertions of IPCC to wave in congress. They appear to be making some headway in using this to influence U.S. policy, which makes our original discussions all the more pressing now.
In this context, it seems important that either Clare and Von Storch take imminent action on this, or else actions of the sort you had mentioned below should perhaps be strongly considered again. Non-action or slow action here could be extremely damaging.I’ll forward you some emails which will indicate the damage that the publication has already caused.
Thanks very much for all your help w/ this to date, and for anything additional you may be able to do in this regard to move this forward.
UPDATE: Dr. Chris de Freitas has responded here, well worth a read.
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“Any fact that is beyond challenge is not a “scientific fact”. It is either an article of faith or a product of deductive reasoning, which by definition, is not a “scientific fact.”
Yeah, right! No result of arithmetic calculation qualifies as a “scientific fact”.
Joel Shore believes that allowing skeptical scientists to submit papers is akin to “affirmative action”. As a confirmed “team” Kool Aid drinker, I would expect no less from the blinkered and partisan Joel Shore. The CAGW scales appear to be attached to Shore’s eyes with Gorilla Glue. But the road to Damascus is long, so there’s still hope.
[snip. Try again, without the d-word. ~dbs, mod.]
I actually had to walk away from my computer and take a breather before commenting on this disgusting conduct. I absolutely cannot abide the bullying cowardice that is made more and more evident with every e-mail I read from these so called scientists. These people simply must be held to account for what they have done. The question is how?
Come on, dbs, it was parody.
Have a look at 1353.txt from Mann to Jones re “Wally” (Wallace Broecker) “Was the Medieval Warm Period Global” and basically Mann is doing his best to dispel the notion. I noticed that Broecker finds a piece of information I found several years ago on a site dealing with glacial retreat in the Alps of Switzerland. That being that as the glaciers retreat, they are exposing wood. This would indicate that the valleys that are now glaciated were once forested
So apparently there hasn’t been any forestation of those valleys since roughly 4000ya. That would seem pretty consistent with long term temperature proxy records I have seen that show we have been in a long gradual cooling trend with some ups and downs but overall gradually cooling for about the last 2500-3000 years or so. We have warm periods but they tend to be cooler than the previous warm period. Cold periods tend to be colder than the previous. The LIA was a 500 year long cold period coldest in the Holocene since the Younger Dryas. If you cool a body of water for 500 years, it can take a while for it to warm back up. I personally believe the oceans are still recovering from the LIA and it will take them a long time to fully recover.
Take an insulated bucket of water, put a thermometer at the bottom, and chill the surface with something … say a piece of dry ice. The thermometer at the bottom will drop pretty quickly. Now heat the surface with a heat gun. It takes that thermometer a much longer time to rise because to warm that bucket from a change in surface temperature you are working against convection. To cool it you are working WITH convection. It takes longer to warm it than it took to cool it. I believe oceans can cool quickly but warm only gradually.
What “the team” has done is quite subtle and has really nothing to do with the MWP. What they are trying to get across is a notion that climate was stable and has all of a sudden become unstable and only started changing recently. They are attempting to get across the notion that “climate change” of any sort is our fault. They want people to believe that climate is inherently stable until disrupted by humans. This goes directly counter to the historical and geological record. We know that climate is NOT stable. There is no sense in “fighting” “climate change” because climate is always changing and never really stable. It is always either warming or cooling, humans notwithstanding. An article in the Guardian (UK) is an example of this mindset. It says “Margret Thatcher would fight climate change”. This must be some attempt to get buy-in from Conservatives. But the point is that nobody can “fight climate change” because change is the very nature of climate. We can waste or money ATTEMPTING to fight climate change, but we can’t stop it from changing and we can’t control it. Think about it. Somehow we have apparently been making the climate warm for 100 years and exerting no effort at it. Now we exert tremendous effort and expense … and have so far zero measurable impact. Amazing.
Joel Shore said
Oh, bullshit.
So this is really where the team cut their teeth, later to be used with far more precision against Wolfgang Wagner at Remote Sensing.
“”””” I have had thoughts also on a further course of action. The present
Vice Chancellor of the University of Auckland, Professor John Hood
(comes from an engineering background) is very concerned that
Auckland should be seen as New Zealand’s premier research
university, and one with an excellent reputation internationally. “””””
Unmitigated BS.
The Vice Chancellor of the U of A is Professor Stewart McCutcheon; and has been so for quite a few years.
Dr John Hood on the other hand; who was the previous Vice Chancellor of the U of A; and who came out of Industry (paper products) (Fletcher Industries as I recall) Vincent Gray could confirm or correct that: can be found these days, at a place called Oxford University; which is supposed to be somewhere in the UK. He is either the Chancellor, or Vice Chancellor of that obscure Institution. And by the way; Dr Hood is nobody’s patsy either. And yes, he did as VC of the University of Auckland seek to try and align the research at the UofA to be more responsive to the kinds of job openings that businesses in New Zealand would need. This is supposed to have some relevence to the economic well being of the New Zealand economy. It has been some years since NZ had a ready market for its food production specialty as a major supplier to the UK; even during WW-II.
Now since the former Great Britain joined those Euro-Socialists, it no longer looks to New
Zealand for food, so the Kiwi have had to realign their whole economic strategy towards a knowledge based economy. Ideas are easier to ship, over vast distances, than mutton. Their excellent wines also now out produce mutton as an export industry.
As for Dr de Freitas, I believe he also teaches some sort of Geography, and his climate specialization, might be better characterized as “micro-climate”, at least it seemed that way, when we spoke back in March 2004. And that was micro-climate in the sense of where plants (aka food) grows.
So possibly Chris does have a different view of climate science from those who believe it all happens up in the stratosphere.
There must be some significance to the fact that a country as small as New Zealand, has at least two eminent scientists; Dr Vincent Gray, and Dr Chris de Freitas, who aren’t at all wowed by the promise of endless research grant funding; by hitching their wagons to the climatism gravy train.
Chris de Freitas isn’t liked amongst the NZ AGW/CC Alarmist ‘Chicken Littles’.
Frankly, I think the “skeptic” community is to blame for the extent to which the larger climate scientific community has become concerned with having bad science published in the journals. In a scientific field that has not been politicized in the way that the “skeptics” have politicized climate science, the solution to having a few bad papers make it through peer review comes about naturally: They just tend to be ignored by scientists working in the field.
NIce try. Don’t like what your camp is doing, so blame it on the other side. Like any sceptic has forced an editor to retire!
You have a major timing issue though. These are old e-mails.
The Team have been bullying opponents and trying to cut off their oxygen from well before the sceptic camp got really going.
How did they react to McIntyre at the start? With open arms? Or were they concerned from the very get go that he might prove them wrong?
The Team started this well before any real sceptic camp got going.
JPY says:
” de Freitas’s watch – he passed papers that reviewers had recommended to be rejected essentially unaltered into the journal …”
JPY, you are wrong. The Soon and Baliunas paper (SB03) was recommended publication by all four reviewers at Climate Research.
Email 4241.txt on replicating McIntyre’s criticism of random inputs generating hockeysticks is by Rob Wilson, not Keith Briffa. Keith Briffa is on the CC list. The email is a response from Ed Cook to Rob Wilson. Cook’s comment on Wilson’s experiment with Excel is
********
Hi Rob,
You are a masochist. Maybe Tom Melvin has it right: “Controversy about which bull caused
mess not relevent. The possibility that the results in all cases were heap of dung has been
missed by commentators.”
*********
I don’t where the Melvin quote comes from. Search of CG1 and CG2 reveals nothing. In CG2 email 5263.txt Melvin is called a “loose cannon” by Tim Osborne. More at CG1 1254345174.txt
“”””” Joel Shore says:
November 27, 2011 at 7:12 pm
Pamela Gray says:
Contrary research MUST be allowed to run apace and be published along side the alarmist view. Let me say it again, it MUST be allowed, even if it proves to be bad science. Do you get that? And do you understand how extremely disturbing the attempt to thwart that process is?
Are you suggesting that there ought to be some sort of “affirmative action” (in the most extreme sense of this word) for such papers … Or, do you think that there should essentially be no peer review at all and all things, no matter how bad, be allowed to appear in the journal? “””””
Joel,
I suggest that you are effectively self raising your stature to that of sainthood; somewhat akin to “Emperor” Napoleon, placing the crown on his own head; when you imply that Dr Sally Baliunas, and Dr Willie Wei Hock Soon, need some sort of affirmative action dispensation to have their papers published in peer reviewed journals.
Each of them has a well deserved bibliography of pertinent papers and other writings.
I have not read this paper at the center of the latest donnybrook, but I have read an earlier paper by the same authors, in which they reviewed about 200 independent studies from all over the world (peer reviewed materials) and concluded that those papers clearly showed that the MWP and the LIA WERE global climate events; in stark contrast to Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick graph which asserts right on the graph that it is simply a local northern hemisphere anomaly.
Frankly Joel, I had come to expect better of you.
…why are these fraudsters not doing hard prison time?
if they were just ranting on a street corner no one would care but they are spending taxpayer money and lying to the taxpayer …that is criminal fraud.
Pfft, you guys call this a long post? I’ve read longer 🙂
Thanks for doing this. Now if we can only get the media to do their job…
So RealClimate keeps saying this is just how science is done, so is there any evidence that members of the team tried to communicate with Soon and Baliunas to discuss the actual science?
Maybe I’m naive, but discussing the science would be what I would expect scientists to do.
Climatebeagle said:
:So RealClimate keeps saying this is just how science is done … Maybe I’m naive, but discussing the science would be what I would expect scientists to do.”
Beagle, I think you are a little naive. In my experience, scientists are no less partisan or any more honest than any other group of professionals.
The value I see in Climategate is that is reveals to the public what all scientists know, which is that scientists can be fiercely competitive and seriously lacking in objectivity and are not immune to the temptation to fiddle their results (remember Einstein’s fudge factor, the cosmological constant, or Newton’s “crassity of the particles”, a fudge factor to conceal a discrepancy between his calculation of the speed of sound and the measured speed.)
The thing is, it all comes out in the wash. Or should do. Mistakes and fakes cannot be concealed for ever in an observational science where others can repeat your observations and experiments.
Trying to get a journal editor fired because you don’t like what he publishes is nasty, but Newton was about as unscrupulous in his dispute with Leibnitz.
The real danger in climate science is that the public may fail to understand the frailties of scientists or the potential for science to be skewed by outside forces: not only by powerful individuals like Al gore but by governments and international organizations such as the UN. You have enough of such interference and science will be corrupted, as it was corrupted in the Soviet Union during the era of Lysenkoism.
“Maybe I’m naive, but discussing the science would be what I would expect scientists to do.”
Indeed. Science should be an open debate and points won on merit not via control of the message.
In this case, uncertainty is so high points cannot be won on merit thus a mass turn towards manipulating the message. Its an identical situation to when one turns to ad hominems and attacking the debate opponent as opposed to the message of the opponent.
This is somewhat old news isn’t it? As it all was part of the 2009 Climategate release, and there is a rather long Wikipedia article on this general issue:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soon_and_Baliunas_controversy
Now with all of these emails revealed, all of the potentially wasted tax dollars, wasted natural resources and time lost that should have been spent on the development of feasible energy and technology to help humankind…will anyone make the connection of this with the goals of the “United Nations Agenda 21 for Sustainable Development”?
The World continues to collapse as trillions of dollars are spent on unsustainable “green” energy. Current science has shown that “wind and solar” cannot support the needs of humans today, and is not projected to capable to do so long into the future, if at all. They continue to waste tons of natural resources that should be used to the benefit of the world, not to bankrupt it.
After all these years, I finally read the S&B paper to see what the hullabaloo was about. Totally bizarre attack on a review of the literature paper. I found it very interesting and the msg. IMO was that, yes, there is evidence for the MWP, however this is not a simple system. There is not a step-wise increase in temps worldwide then a step-wise decrease to ‘normal’. Patterns, that is all. Irregular both temporal and regionally.
And some half-wit talks about legally actionable? Huh? Obviously they bitterly clung to their iconic ‘hockey stick’ because it told a great story…something that the peasants could understand. If you read Bradley’s 2003 paper and look at the figures you begin to see what thin ice they are on
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Bradley.pdf
Take away the framing devices (like the instrument line in Fig 1) and you see even with Mann there’s a weakness. Look at Fig 2, again see how they use the instrument record as a device (in this case only 30 years). Up to 1980 the instrument stuff agrees with S&B….so they are down to 30 years to make their case.
It is very sad indeed. And, no, this is not science we see, it is managing the message.
Joel Shore — Are you suggesting that there ought to be some sort of “affirmative action” (in the most extreme sense of this word) for such papers … Or, do you think that there should essentially be no peer review at all and all things, no matter how bad, be allowed to appear in the journal?
Strangely enough in your juvenile attempt at rhetorical snark you have inadvertently stumbled upon something useful. On the other hand even broken clocks are correct twice a day, so don’t get ahead of yourself.
There have been serious calls for FUNDING agencies to devote a minor percentage of research budgets to contrarian views. e.g. LENR (sometimes called cold fusion) is a real and reproducible effect, but overreliance on consensus science in funding approach denies realistic investigation since “real” physicists vying for such funding would see their careers damaged. On the off chance that the contrarian view is correct, science is advanced. Otherwise, the funding isn’t wasted as it serves the purpose of having had a serious look at everything, and careers aren’t ruined.
R. Gates says:
November 27, 2011 at 10:25 pm
This is somewhat old news isn’t it? As it all was part of the 2009 Climategate release, and there is a rather long Wikipedia article on this general issue…
——————————————————–
As a house-organ of the warmunists, Wiki is hardly the last word.
Here was my take on the original revelations of Climategate 1 concerning Soon and Baliunas. when this story broke a couple of years ago. To put it bluntly… They got hose by the Team. And I document how Mann, since his initial criticism of S & B, has done some of the exact same things he so vigorously chides them for doing.