The major winter storm in Alaska mentioned overnight on WUWT, while weaker than the previous record storm 1974, gets pegged as being “aided and abetted by global warming”:
While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.
Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.
With this sort of “journalism” it will soon come to pass that any significant weather event, anytime, will be connected to global warming climate change climate disruption. Sheesh, the stupid, it burns.
And where’s the proof? There is none, it is pure speculation, and not even good speculation at that.And as we see time and time again, when somebody speculates on these events, the analysis shows otherwise.
- Tornadoes linked to global warming- FALSE
- Hurricanes linked to global warming- FALSE
- Flooding linked to global warming- FALSE
- Increased deaths due to storminess in the era of global warming- FALSE
I’ve said it before, and it bears repeating: how do we know the number and intensity measurements of storms aren’t due to reporting bias? 100 years ago, if when such a storm rolled in, did we have satellites, weather networks, and insta-launch web opinion to tell us it was connected to warming coming out of the little ice age? No. Were we even aware of such storms? Maybe – weeks or months later, if they got reported at all.
And what about this statement?
Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.
What happened in the 1960’s? Weather satellites, and weather monitoring was standardized in Alaska, thanks to it becoming the 49th state in 1959.
And what’s on the NWS page for Alaska today? Nothing about it being related to global warming, nor “worst ever” nor “epic”, like we see in the media today. For the NWS in Alaska, it seems to be just another big winter storm.
This bears repeating: Why it seems that severe weather is “getting worse” when the data shows otherwise – a historical perspective
Tell writer Pete Spotts what you think of this here
h/t to WUWT reader A. Scott
UPDATE: 11/09/2011 7PM PST
Commenter Phillip Bradley writes:
…while midlatitude cyclone activity generally decreased from 1960 to the early 1990s, in agreement with previous studies. New findings include the following. 1) The number and intensity of cyclones entering the Arctic from the midlatitudes has increased, suggesting a shift of storm tracks into the Arctic, particularly in summer. 2) Positive tendencies of midlatitude cyclone activity before and after the 1960–93 period of decreasing activity.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C2300%3ACAIVOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Masters’ claim of,
…an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s
Looks to be false.
I examined the paper and made this excerpt from Zhang et al 2004:
Doesn’t look like any significant trend to me. They write in the paper:
The trajectory counts of cyclones originating in the two regions also show signatures consistent with the CAI variability in the Arctic region (Fig. 11b). Specifically, there was a generally increasing tendency from 1955 to 1980 and a decreasing tendency after 1980 for both types of cyclones.
UPDATE2: 7:45PM PST – The NWS is now making claims of a Cat3 hurricane equivalent in this KTUU-TV news story:
Really? Where?
One the places cited in many news stories as being a problem spot is Kivalina. There’s not even any Cat1 winds there: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PAVL.html
And Weather Underground sure doesn’t look all that bad, no hurricane force winds on this map:
The worst I found was Tin City, which briefly had Cat1 level winds:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PATC.html
UPDATE3: 8:15PM PST – the climb-down, no Cat 3 hurricane here:
Earlier today (see comment from John below for full text)
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011 …ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING SEA STORMS ON RECORD… A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
WWAK82 PAFG 100330 SPSWCZ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 630 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011 ... ...STRONG STORM CONTINUES TO BUFFET WESTERN ALASKA... THE STRONG STORM WHICH HAS BEEN BATTERING WESTERN ALASKA MOVED NORTH OF THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND IS ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE NORTHWEST REACHING WRANGELL ISLAND LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HARD HITTING WEATHER WITH THIS STORM IS FAR FROM OVER AS SEA LEVELS RISE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER NORTON SOUND...THE BERING STRAIT...AND THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM POINT HOPE SOUTH. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH...BUT THIS DIRECTION FAVORS MUCH MORE MOVEMENT OF SEA WATER INTO THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES RAISING THE WATER LEVEL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE TIDES. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SO FAR: BUCKLAND........56 MPH AT 316AM WED CAPE LISBURNE...81 MPH AT 700AM WED CAPE ROMANZOF...60 MPH AT 300AM WED DEERING.........61 MPH AT 319AM WED EMMONAK.........62 MPH AT 1100PM TUE GAMBELL.........74 MPH AT 600PM TUE GOLOVIN.........64 MPH AT 1200AM WED KIANA...........54 MPH AT 715AM WED KIVALINA........71 MPH AT 323AM WED KOTZEBUE........74 MPH AT 600AM WED KOYUK...........41 MPH AT 800AM WED MARSHALL........64 MPH AT 1100PM TUE NOATAK..........62 MPH AT 1036AM WED NOME............61 MPH AT 900PM TUE NOORVIK.........67 MPH AT 423AM WED POINT HOPE......78 MPH AT 500AM WED RED DOG MINE....48 MPH AT 935AM WED SAINT MARYS.....61 MPH AT 900PM TUE ST MICHAEL......68 MPH AT 1200AM WED SAVOONGA........76 MPH AT 700PM TUE SCAMMON BAY.....72 MPH AT 800PM TUE SHAKTOOLIK......64 MPH AT 115AM WED SHISHMAREF......57 MPH AT 1216AM WED SHUNGNAK........69 MPH AT 900AM WED TELLER..........71 MPH AT 600AM WED TIN CITY........85 MPH AT 1200AM WED UNALAKLEET......66 MPH AT 1200AM WED WALES...........89 MPH AT 142AM WED
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
“While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.”
Put another way, there was a stronger storm 37 years ago, so this one must be caused by global warming. The logic of the cult becomes so removed from reality. that one wonders why anyone takes them seriously any more.
Since it’s actually global cooling that causes extreme storms, I guess this one shows that it’s just barely getting started. Over the next decade or two the real monsters will hit.
Dr. Masters is often quoted by the environmental writer in our local newspaper. Letters to the editor to correct his comments, even when accompanied by citations to the peer-reviewed literature, do no good. They’re never published. What Masters says is gospel to them.
This only goes to prove that if any bald faced lie is shouted long enough and loud enough it becomes truth.
This storm is the worst since 1974. Dr. Roy Spencer looked at strong tornadoes this spring and found they were the worst since 1974.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Tornadoes-vs-temperature-US.png
There was a strong La Nina in1973-74 just as there was 2010-11.
This storm is the worst since 1974. Roger Pielke, Jr. looked at Neville Nicholls’ analysis of eastern Australian flooding rains which found a strong link between La Ninas (strong SOI) and flooding; this spring’s flooding was the worst since 1974.
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/04/neville-nicholls-on-australias-extreme.html
After I read the forecast of this “arctic hurricane” on the weather channel I went to wunderground.com and looked up the blogs including Joe Alaska to see what the weather was in Dutch Harbour. Surprise, surprise, a bit windy and snowy but not the major weather event being talked about. This is not the first time I have been in total disagreement with some of Dr Jeff Master’s blogs and some others on Wunderground. I have now removed Wunderground.com from my favourites list. Sometimes I wunder what planet we are talking about.
alaska hound look at chandalar lake 53 f
John Wootton says:
November 10, 2011 at 5:25 am
” This is not the first time I have been in total disagreement with some of Dr Jeff Master’s blogs and some others on Wunderground. I have now removed Wunderground.com from my favourites list. Sometimes I wunder what planet we are talking about.”
After using “wunderground” for a long time, I quickly realized that it had morphed into two sites:
(1) A mediocre to bad weather information site
(2) A host for Jeff Masters’ inane weather blogging
I wasn’t hard to switch to another site (in my case intellicast.com) which was and is a MUCH BETTER weather information site without the Jeff Masters weather blogging junk…
For all who use Weather Underground – make the switch! You won’t regret it and you’ll wonder why you didn’t do it sooner.
If people would just get in the habit to think about things before they say something, they would come off a lot less like idiots.
I certainly hope Dr. Masters was speaking off the cuff. Or perhaps he just didn’t anticipated being asked questions, or being asked for evidence to back up his claims?
This storm must have caused a whole lot of Alaskans to…go to bed. The Columbus Day storm decades ago hit the inland empire areas of Washington, Oregon, and part of Idaho and flattened several thousand trees resulting in the loss of millions of board feet. Both the front and back doors of our school were blown off their hinges and the flag along with its rope chain detached from the flag pole and disappeared into the surrounding whiplashed forest. I was in the school when it happened.
Masters and his ilk are not brainwashed. They are smarties who have learned a great way to make money easily from suckers that are born every day .
Neo-AGW Progress Report.
Frost is not a “significant weather event”. It’s one more “global warming event”.
…-
“Unusual Cold, Frost Threat Looms for Florida”
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/57580/unusual-cold-frost-threat-to-i.asp
re: lying or stupid?
I think we’re seeing the psychology of “The Boy who Cried Wolf”; the expectation is that someday a real wolf will show up. Unfortunately for our perpetual criers, the effect on the listeners will be the same as in the fable.
@James Baldwin Sexton
What’s wrong with both?
James Sexton says:
November 9, 2011 at 6:23 pm
“It continually leaves me wondering…….. are these people intentionally lying to people or are they just that stupid?”
I fear the worst, stupidity. If we had a meritocracy at one time, or the beginning of one, it seems to have fallen apart.
This is a fine example of the principle:
The first to Print is the opinion that counts!
Retractions, if at all are always in small print on page 34 in the evening edition in the affiliated paper with the smallest circulation. (Hubby’s Dad owns a newspaper)
The two local newspapers coming from the same publisher have became ever more careless about maintaining even a bare pretense of journalistic balance. Instead, they simply declare how wonderful, fair, and balanced they are, despite the obvious evidence of the exact opposite in reality. Al Gore and his retinue of Global Warming alarmists hysterically forecast a carbon dioxide soaked doom, and the newspapers trot forth the latest stories from Seth Borenstein at AP and others. Resenting the attempt at having me pay for the privilege of being subjected to their political indoctrination, it was time to make my objections known to the publisher.
Tried to protest the fraud and hoax in the letters to the editor of our two local newspapers, same publisher. They were each and every one ignored.
Tried to unsubscribe from the newspapers. The publisher delivered and charged for the newspapers anyway.
Tried time and again to unsubscribe. The publisher delivered, charged for the newspapers anyway, and threatened to end the subscription if the overdue balances were not immediately paid. Yea!
The newspapers continued to be delivered. Tried to unsubscribe from the newspapers by telephone, but they wouldn’t take my calls in person. They said to leave a message on the answering system. Doing so, I refused to subscribe…again!.
The publisher delivered and charged for the newspapers anyway, said my subscription was being canceled, and demanded payment for overdue amounts. At least the cancellation of the subscription was ending the unwanted deliveries of the newspapers. Progress at last!
Well, not so much progress after all. The newspapers continued to be delivered. I continued to remind the publisher by mail and by phone that the subscriptions were canceled long ago. I demanded the deliveries of the subscriptions be stopped. Sent notice of cancellations by mail. Left messages on the answering machine. Received a collection notice, scolding me because they had to suspend delivery of the newspapers for non-payment. Like I was going to believe that!
The newspapers continued to be delivered. Went to the newspaper office to demand the deliveries and collection notices be stopped. Come back next week, the person who handles that department is on vacation, and won’t return until next week…. Leave a message canceling the subscriptions on the answering system, they helpfully suggested. Really!?!
The newspapers continued to be delivered. The collection notice in the mail duly noted the subscription had been suspended due to non-payment, and the overdue account was being sent to a collection agency. Went in person back to the publisher’s office. Too busy with other appointments to see me, come back tomorrow. Went back the next day, waited an hour and a half, and someone finally talks to me and wants to know why I want to end my subscription to such a fine newspaper and won’t pay my badly overdue bill. Explanation being cutoff after the first five words, or was it the first three words, an abrupt and gruff promise was made to end ONE newspaper subscription. If I wanted the other newspaper subscription to be stopped, I could just telephone their easy to use and friendly telephone answering system to leave a message, or I could visit their other newspaper office and printing plant in the next town. Arrrgh.
The newspapers continued to be delivered. Went back to the newspaper office in town to complain, and a clerk disappeared in back before returning to apologize and explain the newspaper carrier had not yet had enough TIME to receive the special notice to NOT deliver the newspaper at MY address. In fact, it may take a whole WEEK before the carrier gets the message. Surely, I didn’t mind receiving a few more free newspapers, did I, they asked? As far as the other newspaper was concerned, I was on my own.
When I returned home from my visit to their office, their collection notice was waiting in the mail. It asked for payment in full for the past due amounts and pre-payment for the still unpaid subscriptions the publisher was kind enough to continue sending me. I dropped the reply in the mail at the post office on my way to the next town to see the publisher of the other local newspaper. After the obligatory lengthy wait, confusion over why I wasn’t there to pay my badly overdue bill, and continued difficulties in finding just the right person to talk to about my ungrateful complaints, I finally had the opportunity to make it known I long ago unsubscribed and owed nothing for anything delivered after my order to stop the subscriptions. The months old postal letter with the proof of delivery, heh heh he, seemed to play some role in resolving that particular argument in my favor. Free at last! Or, could it be?
The newspapers continued to be delivered…but not for too much longer. They kind of stopped, started, and stopped again for some months. The bills and collection notices were much more dependable and regular in their plaintive demands for more MONEY, MONEY, MONEY! With the patience of a saint, I calmly reminded them, no contract, no subscription, no more bills, and NO MONEY! Eventually they sort of went away. So, I removed the two plastic newspaper boxes from the mailbox post which the newspaper carriers used to deliver the newspapers.
BIG MISTAKE! It must have taken less than 48 hours, and new, two brand spanking new, plastic newspaper delivery boxes were NAILED to the mailbox post, and each one had a newspaper in it. Quickly, before the monster could gain strength and grow, the snowball could roll and grow larger, or the overdue payment notices rival a national debt somewhere, I nipped the threat in the bud, and demanded THE CARRIER remove the offending newspaper boxes WITH the unwanted printed dead tree matter. Undoubtedly impressed with my display of steadfast purpose, my rightful demands were acted upon with the alacrity due a person of my stature in the community of newspaper consumers. It couldn’t have taken more than two weeks…or so.
No, they did not continue to deliver the newspapers. The frequency of the advertising circulars began to pickup with their plastic wrap bags appearing in the driveway more often than once a week. At least they didn’t carry Seth Borenstein’s articles, the latest doom predictions of Al Gore, the sea level rise was going to get us, or the NOAA news briefings trying to convince us we were hotter than ever before as our tomatoes in the garden remained stubbornly green into September and October. Save trees, unsubscribe from a newspaper.
Happy as happy can be, we left our home on a months long trip. In fact, almost a year into our absence from home, a neighbor wanted to know why we ordered a product to be delivered by UPS and failed to stop our newspaper subscription before leaving home for so long. Having reached home, we found someone had been kind enough to ship us a mystery package by UPS, put two Corelle dishes on the front porch to feed a very friendly and grey tomcat never seen before, and favored us with regular deliveries of…you guessed it…those free sample newspapers with all of those those indispensable articles from Seth Borenstein and accomplices laying in the driveway. Sigh.
“crosspatch says:
November 9, 2011 at 10:07 pm
In fact, they are at record cold temperatures since measurements have been taken by satellite.”
I know where you are coming from and I agree with you. However the lines only show from 2002 and later. My understanding is that currently it is at about -0.1 C. At the following, it can be seen that 1993 and earlier had several years where November was below -0.1 C. Unfortunately, it does not go back to 1974.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
4 out of 5 CAGW advocates will tell you that the perceived speed of a cold wind increases with decreasing temperature. Had this storm occurred in January/February, KTUU would undoubtedly have rated it a CAT-5 (or worse).
Soon come to pass? More like, already has come to pass. Pretty much any weather event is connected to AGW conjecture these days.
Paul Westhaver – thanks for the link to the 1974 Newsweek article. What a hoot. I especially enjoyed:
“Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared t take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.”
Climatologists haven’t changed a bit. It’s unfortunate that our current crop of political leaders aren’t as bright as their colleagues back in ’74.
Louis Hoofstetter,
I remember the hysteria when I was just an impressionable 13 year old. It left a frightening scar on my psyche and then, the fears of the “Nuclear Winter” propagated by no other than Carl Sagan himself….. oh woe is me…. Consider the relief and the welcomed skepticism when, as an adult, I was being told that now the earth is going burn up!
Guys like Masters, and Borenstein, and Monbiot and Hanson and Mann and Jones must think that either we are stupid or memory-less.
We had a 90 MPH gust in Colorado last Spring. Does that count as a hurricane?
So called “Global Warming” causes longer fetch? I fail to see any connection.