Alternate title: Something wonky this way comes
I try to get away to work on my paper and the climate world explodes, pulling me back in. Strange things are happening related to the BEST data and co-authors Richard Muller and Judith Curry. Implosion might be a good word.
Popcorn futures are soaring. BEST Co-author Judith Curry drops a bombshell:
Her comments, in an exclusive interview with The Mail on Sunday, seem certain to ignite a furious academic row. She said this affair had to be compared to the notorious ‘Climategate’ scandal two years ago.
Here’s the short timeline.
1. The GWPF plots a flat 10 year graph using BEST data:
2. The Mail on Sunday runs a scathing article comparing BEST’s data plotted by GWPF and the data presented in papers. They print this comparison graph:
Note: timescales don’t match on graphs above, 200 years/10 years. A bit naughty on the part of the Sunday Mail to put them together as many readers won’t notice.
3. Dr. Judith Curry, BEST co-author, turns on Muller, in the Mail on Sunday article citing “hide the decline”:
In Prof Curry’s view, two of the papers were not ready to be published, in part because they did not properly address the arguments of climate sceptics.
As for the graph disseminated to the media, she said: ‘This is “hide the decline” stuff. Our data show the pause, just as the other sets of data do. Muller is hiding the decline.
‘To say this is the end of scepticism is misleading, as is the statement that warming hasn’t paused. It is also misleading to say, as he has, that the issue of heat islands has been settled.’
Prof Muller said she was ‘out of the loop’. He added: ‘I wasn’t even sent the press release before it was issued.’
…
But although Prof Curry is the second named author of all four papers, Prof Muller failed to consult her before deciding to put them on the internet earlier this month, when the peer review process had barely started, and to issue a detailed press release at the same time.
He also briefed selected journalists individually. ‘It is not how I would have played it,’ Prof Curry said. ‘I was informed only when I got a group email. I think they have made errors and I distance myself from what they did.
‘It would have been smart to consult me.’ She said it was unfortunate that although the Journal of Geophysical Research had allowed Prof Muller to issue the papers, the reviewers were, under the journal’s policy, forbidden from public comment.
4. Ross McKittrick unloads:
Prof McKittrick added: ‘The fact is that many of the people who are in a position to provide informed criticism of this work are currently bound by confidentiality agreements.
‘For the Berkeley team to have chosen this particular moment to launch a major international publicity blitz is a highly unethical sabotage of the peer review process.’
5. According to BEST’s own data, Los Angeles is cooling, fast:
Other than the same old, same old….
The big story for me is Dr. Curry is the second named author of all four papers……
…and Muller obviously hid what he was doing from her..he had to have done that on purpose
Blinding
Eyes
Stimulates
Temperatures
BEST
Working
Out the
Reality of
Stalled
Temperatures
WORST
Jeff D says:
October 29, 2011 at 11:11 pm
Sanity at last.
Now I wonder if the world will ever hear it.
The framers of our Constitution missed an item. We have separation of Church and State, they needed to add Separation of Science and State.
__________________________________________
That was Eisenhowers’s warning, but in this case separation of Church and State should cover it.
“We must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.”
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Science in this case is a tool of the military-industrial complex because they are paying for it (with our tax dollars)
Judith Curry seems like the bus driver here. I’m not sure why she’s suddenly running over her team when on Oct 20th she blogged as being “honored to have been invited to participate”.
1. Who cares if the graphs, which are smoothed over 10 year averages, end in 2006?
2. co-author JC admitted that lack of ocean data was the big weakness of the BEST papers about 10 days ago.
The fact that Muller has done such a bad job in the release of these “papers”, the fact that he claimed the last 10 years have also seen warming when his own data shows they haven’t, the fact that he seems out of touch with his own data set, world-class researcher that he is supposed to be – this is why team member Judith has jumped off the BEST four-paper gravy train. She now thinks the papers weren’t ready for publication. Top marks for hindsight.
Come on Judith, get off the bus. I’ll drive. I don’t believe in climate science.
cohenite says:
October 29, 2011 at 11:21 pm
So Muller runs a sustainability business; fancy that…..
___________________________________________
Bad Manners says:
October 29, 2011 at 11:40 pm
What’s wrong with that – it’s in the time-honoured tradition of putting your mouth where your money is !
____________________________________________
It is called BIAS and is why the tobacco companies were hung out to dry. You are not going to get unbiased science out of those with a dog in the fight. In forty years in quality labs, I only had ONE company out of several not want me to falsify test results.
The Daily Mail is not noted for its accuracy
After looking at Berkeley’s Land numbers from 1979 to today versus the UAH Land numbers, Crutemp3 Land and the NCDC Land, they are quite similar each month although Berkeley clearly has a higher increase than the other 3 (as much as 60% more of an increase than the UAH lower troposphere over Land measurements for example).
http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/4898/berkeleyvsotherland.png
And here is another issue which is very interesting and important to the climate debate. Berkeley Land (and all the other Land measurements) are increasing at a much higher rate than the Global Lower Troposphere temperature trend and the Ocean SST trend. Land temperatures appear to be warming at a much faster rate than the Oceans and the Lower Troposphere.
Double in fact (UHI? or some other explanation?)
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/4432/berkeleyuahrsshadsst2.png
There is certainly a flattening trend in all measurements over the last 10 to 13 years.
While it might be tempting to cheer Curry as the new Skeptical Hero, this BEST thing has yet to fully play out. Remember it was not so long ago Muller was the Hero for his “Hide the Decline” critique. Some cautious optimisim might be in order, i just wouldn’t go making the same mistake that was made with Muller by declaring trust in his results prior to their release.
Chris Wright says:
October 30, 2011 at 4:38 am
I find this very, very sad. For some years Richard Muller has been a bit of a hero for me, ever since I read his wonderful book Nemesis. This is probably the best science book I have read. It tells the fascinating story of how real science was done and actually reads a bit like a detective thriller. Ironically, it is also the story of how Muller and the Alvarez team fought against the scientific consensus of the time. In the end they won: they had discovered and effectively proven what killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
How things have changed. Now I am very sad to see the depths that Muller has sunk to. There seem to be no bounds to the corruption of climate science.
Chris
——————————————–
Chris, that was also falls. Muller claims a 62 million year wobble of the solar system within the galaxy killed the dinosaurs when the earth passed through a region full of comets. Problem is the dinosaurs went extinct 65 million years ago and we are still 12 million years away from the next peak. See the problem?
Universe 2
Muller 0
crosspatch says:
October 30, 2011 at 12:06 am
….Once again, there is a lot of gold in the “global warming” industry and he was trying to pan some of it for himself, is what it looks like to me. But I still believe he had some world class coaching on this.
_________________________________
Here is a candidate for your “World Class Coach” Stan Greenberg, Congresswoman Rosa Delauro’s hubby. His companies are privately owned so finding out who he works for is near impossible. Greenberg Carville Shrum has directed political directed Campaigns in 60 countries.
” “He was also a strategic consultant to the Climate Center of the Natural Resources Defense Council on its multi-year campaign on global warming……NGO board memberships include the American Museum of Natural History, the National Endowment for Democracy, The Africa-America Institute, the Citizens Committee for New York City, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Refugees International…….Republican pollster Frank Luntz says “Stan Greenberg scares the hell out of me. He doesn’t just have a finger on the people’s pulse; he’s got an IV injected into it.” http://ilf.ndi.org/panelists#StanleyGreenberg
“Whether you want to win your election, lead your country, increase your bottom line, or change the world, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner can help you find the answer,” GQRR states on its website http://www.gqrr.com/
Stanley Greenberg “ Greenberg’s work for private sector organizations – including major corporations, trade associations and public interest organizations – focuses on managing change and reform….Greenberg has conducted extensive research in Europe (particularly Great Britain, Germany and France), Central and South America (Argentina and Brazil), and Africa (South Africa). He specializes in research on globalization, international trade, corporate consolidation, technology and the Internet. For organizations, Greenberg has helped manage and frame a number of issues – including education, school financing, American identity, the economy, environmental regulation, international trade, managed care, biotechnology, copyrights, privacy and the Internet….
Greenberg has advised a broad range of political campaigns, including those of President Bill Clinton and Vice-President Al Gore, Senators Chris Dodd, Joe Lieberman and Jeff Bingaman; Governor Jim Florio and gubernatorial candidate, Andy Young; former Vice-President Walter Mondale; and a number of candidates for the U.S. Congress. For many years, he served as principal polling advisor to the Democratic National Committee.
“Greenberg works jointly on private sector projects with prominent Republican pollsters in the United States – including Fred Steeper (pollster to former President Bush), Bill McInturff and Linda DiVall – to bring a bi-partisan focus to public issues….” http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Stanley_Greenberg
Dr.Curry has clearly stated what was true in the interview. She also said she doesn’t know who said about this being equal to Climategate, whether she or Rose. So the topic was indeed discussed. All in all Judith has confirmed the meat of the interview and differs only in some of the interpretations. So talking about Daiy Mail’s accuracy is a strawman, especially when Dr.Curry herself has confirmed the facts.
Could the article be titled “The BEST War On Science”? The real problem is the media. They have been fighting Capitalism for many years. AGW and the Media are fighting the same war.
From http://judithcurry.com/2011/10/30/mail-on-best/#comment-129902
“To set the record straight, some of the other sentiments attributed to me are not quite right” sounds to me that Dr Curry does not think that the Daily Mail was accurate.
This isn’t about science. This is pre Durban Agenda Setting being implemented from the greenie game plan to maximize the hysteria and fear mongering opportunities of the imminent COP in South Africa.
Read the whole of what Dr.Curry said Louise and then construct a fresh strawman if possible. Your current strawman has been blown away.
Yes, she also said ““Hiding the truth” in the title is definitely misleading”
Sounds to me that she believes tha the Daily Mail used a misleading title – not the actions of a newspaper known for its accuracy.
Yes, she also said ““Hiding the truth” in the title is definitely misleading”
Having canvassed the views of a number of laypersons the term ‘hiding the truth’ is exactly what they think of it without prompting by the Daily Mail.
The whole point with BEST was to check if other temperature observation data sets
were corrupted. Just to indulge you sceptics – to us others it was obvious that the
data sets were more or less reliable, showing a real trend.
Muller checked and then lauded Phil Jones and others. That must have hurt!
And now you, Judith Curry and a lot of other tedious hard heads turn to issues,
which were not listed as BEST reserach aims at all.
So if WUWT? get’s a review copy of a draft paper, does that mean that Dr. Curry did not get draft copies of the four papers in which she is the 2nd author?
Sorry, but what little credability Dr. Curry has left (some would say she has less than zero credability), has just gone out the window in SPADES!
I think Mr Muller should have just offered you the data and let you all get on with drawing pretty pictures until the end of time. 92 million views and not one solution yet?
Why didn’t Mr Muller just publish only the numbers? … year such, such a temperature. so much CO2, next year, so much temperature, so much CO2 .. and on and on …. then it would be up to the individuals of this world to see what is truth and what isn’t
But as long as both side of the divide (including you guys) stick to graphs, charts and completely ludicrous ways of explaining things to those who don’t understand such things then nothing will ever be resolved because you are all talking to yourselves and not the ones who matter, the people of this world.
I’m only an engineer (also a computer scientist) but I sometimes wonder how many of you are real scientists and how many of you are playing games with yourselves.
Had any of you bothered to do some work on your own instead of relying on the charts and pretty pictures from others then this whole debate might have been over a long time ago.
I personally believe in Global Warming, but not in CO2 being the culprit, I see many reasons for it, here are some numbers that prove CO2 is not the culprit. And “LOOK!!!” they are only numbers, no charts, no pictures, no cartoons or other such wasted space.
http://wisdomblogsdotcom1.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/coal-consumption.jpg
(I’m still doing Oils and Gas consumption but already one can see the truth.
And no, I have no interest in any of this except that I like blogging about it and for my own engineering ideas.
Personally I would dearly love to have the temperature data between 1750 and the 1880s so I can complete my own work (for my own and very selfish purposes) but no matter what I cannot find it ( my fault, of course, I keep missing the links)
But I need proper numbers, not just “work it out as best as you can data from a pretty looking chart” stuff
Any chance of a lending hand fellows? I would really appreciate you guys looking at my numbers (just to share knowledge, nothing more) and perhaps providing me with a link to temperature measurements for the last two centuries or so.
I don’t pretend to be right like many of you, unlike many of you though I prefer to do my own studies and not rely on everybody else to tell me what is and isn’t, the link is important to me only .. so please, a link
Pretty please … with sugar on top 🙂
This is great! The last two years should be made into a movie. It’s gonna have to be made outside of the UK and Hollywood of course. Oh, and anywhere else where AGW has been forced down peoples throats. Anyone speak Chinese or Russian? Oh hell, I’ll just get more popcorn and continue reading this blog.
Brent in Calgary
Speaking of tedious hardheads, Mikael Pihlström just doesn’t understand.
There is no real argument against warming since the global LIA. That warming is mostly natural, and shows a steady trend. If CO2 was causing the warming, we would see a sharply rising spike in temperature, like Michael Mann’s debunked MBH98 chart purported to show. But that is simply not happening. That must hurt, eh, Mikael?
I think this is the right time to play Hide the Decline again;
Err…. sorry! I forgot to mention … I am looking for global averages; not temperatures for individual areas/
Thank you
Its probably more likely that Muller was forced to produce those results/graph by the AGW establishment which includes that current US government
Mikael Pihlström says:
October 30, 2011 at 7:05 am
The whole point with BEST was to check if other temperature observation data sets
were corrupted.
============================================
Then you will have no problem explaining this:
http://www.real-science.com/rewriting-ministry-truth