Brrr…the Troposphere Is Ignoring Your SUV
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
For those tracking the daily global temperature updates at the Discover website, you might have noticed the continuing drop this month in global temperatures. The mid-tropospheric AMSU channels are showing even cooler temperatures than we had at this date with the last (2008) La Nina. The following screen shot is for AMSU channel 6
A check of the lower stratospheric channels (9, 10) suggests this is not a stratospheric effect bleeding over into the tropospheric channels.
With the current (and forecast to continue) stormy pattern over the U.S., I have to wonder whether the atmosphere is currently in a destabilized state. I doubt that surface temperatures anomalies are as anomalously low as the mid-troposphere temperatures are running, which in combination with anomalously cold mid- and upper-tropospheric temperatures means there is extra energy available for storms. (Since AMSR-E failed in early October, our sea surface temperature plot is no longer showing current data, so I have no easy way to check surface temperatures.)
Of course, this too shall pass. I just thought it was an interesting curiosity during a time when some pundits are claiming global warming is “accelerating”. Apparently, they are still stuck in the last millennium.
h/t to WUWT reader David L.
(click for large version).
Thank you Dr. Spenser. The mid troposphere is something I like to watch.
Directly comparing dates seems a bit silly as can be easily seen from the ENSO page of this blog. The 2008 La Nina peaked in January and by October was close to neutral. The current La Nina only began around July and has a much lower October anomaly than in 2008.
The temperature looks to me to be warmer not colder as the y axis shows temperature increasing as the scale goes from top to bottom, Unusual in that it seems inverted. I know nothing about troposphere temperatures but just wanted to point that out.
I am sure I read somewhere that a warming Troposphere was the fingerprint of CO2 driven cAGW.
Just how often does a hypothesis have to fail to match reality before it is junked?
Disregard my last post, Looks like the y axis shows NEGATIVE temperatures so getting colder from top to bottom
The all time record low seems to have been set on Nov 29th 2006 at -36.60 C. I wonder if we will set a new record low record in the near future.
Quick, hide the decline!
As expected. System mode toggle into cooling. Hysteresis of positive feedbacks overcome. Less UV gets into the oceans; oceans cool the atmosphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hysteresis_sharp_curve.svg
(imagine in=solar; out=temps. You know where we are)
My bad. For budgetary reasons, I’ve been leaving the Jeep parked except for monthly bean & rice runs to grocery store. You’d think the additional methane would have compensated for my reduced CO2 emissions
Isn’t the temperature range from high to low on the right meaning its hotter?
Ignore me my eyes aint what they used to be, didn’t see the minus sign 🙁
It’s definitely worse than we thought…
Here are 2 indisputable scientific equations:
CO2 = 🙂
AGW = BS
OT, but this is interesting. Should also apply to climate models. Why am I not surprised? Murray
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=finance-why-economic-models-are-always-wrong#comments
Remember – huge snows in October here in New England and declining global temperatures MEAN NOTHING! It’s ONLY if the surface temperatures are warmer than normal that weather is closely correlated to climate change. Everything else is meaningless!
/cagw
Dr. Roy, BEST, HadCrut, Giss, Riss all show no warming or cooling over the past decade.
What is causing UAH to show a slight warming?
thanks
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/10/29/the-mischaracterization-of-skepticism-and-the-misapplication-of-the-skeptic-label/
Chris says:
October 30, 2011 at 9:44 am
Quick, hide the decline!
Why do you think that AMSR-E has “failed”?
/paranoia off
sharper00, I just left Roy Spencer the following comment at his blog:
Roy: You wrote in the post, “The mid-tropospheric AMSU channels are showing even cooler temperatures than we had at this date with the last (2008) La Nina.”
2011/12 is shaping up to be the second of a pair of back-to-back La Nina events, meaning 2010/11 was also a La Nina winter. So 2007/08 was not the last La Nina.
Or are you discussing the autumns after La Nina events, because La Nina conditions did not exist in October 2008? You need to clarify.
Cheynne Sayers,
Those are negative ‘y’ temperatures. Temperature increases upward, not downward.
@latitude, troposphere seems to react to El Ninos more strongly than the surface record. So if you get a pronounced El Nino at the end of decade record, it will shift the decade trend up.
DocMartyn says:
October 30, 2011 at 9:39 am
I am sure I read somewhere that a warming Troposphere was the fingerprint of CO2 driven cAGW.
Just how often does a hypothesis have to fail to match reality before it is junked?
____________________
Until the politicians have gotten all the taxes and regulations they want. After that it does not matter if the truth surfaces. The regs and Taxes will stay.
Can someone help me out. What weather effects does the troposphere temperate have? How does the troposphere temperature relate to the weather on the ground? For example, when the troposphere is warmer, is the weather in general stormier or calmer?
Another question, why does the troposphere temperature parallel the northern hemisphere season?
Thanks.
well… UK better be prepared for one cold winter
if the cool remains in the Atlantic the western US is going to get pummeled this year.. shaping up to be a very wet and cold winter…
Almost every channel is lower than last year, or even.
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Dr. Dev
Wade says:
October 30, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Can someone help me out. What weather effects does the troposphere temperate have? How does the troposphere temperature relate to the weather on the ground? For example, when the troposphere is warmer, is the weather in general stormier or calmer?
Another question, why does the troposphere temperature parallel the northern hemisphere season?
Thanks.
——————————————————————————————————–
Troposphere is the buffer from colder upper air and warmer lower air.. cooling in the center is evidence of extream cold above it or decreased heat below.. it is only part of the picture.. i suspect that the El Nina below is lowering temp below and the loss of heat is allowing it to cool further from above.
as for it being in unison with this hemisphere, its taken from this hemisphere. so it should.
Bill
Bill H,
i suspect that the El Nina below is lowering temp below and the loss of heat is allowing it to cool further from above.
La Nina. El Nino. 🙂
as for it being in unison with this hemisphere, its taken from this hemisphere. so it should.
Actually, it is taken from both hemispheres. It tracks the NH seasonality, because the NH seasonality dominates the near surface global temps, due to the greater NH landmass.
Mighty early in the fall for the mid-troposphere to be getting that cold.
Par for the course, however, for where things have been heading these past couple of years.
SST data seems to have stopped some time ago what happened>?
0.29 degrees from the satellite measurements through Sept.
Will this indicate October’s satellite temp’s are going to be even lower?
As the AGW cult gather in filthy, dangerous, sweaty Durban, there should be cries of joy as the oft-projected day of Armageddon disappears.
Probably not – the existence of any loony/fringe cult is wholly dependent on scaring the faithful and the chosen, so this is just another one of those numerous inconvenient facts to be ignored.
So numerous unsubstantiated excuses will be given for maintaining, or only slightly deferring, the dread Day of Climate Armageddon.
Bill H;
You’re thinking of the “tropopause“. The troposphere is where you is. Where we all am. The lower atmosphere.
andrew says:
October 30, 2011 at 10:53 pm
SST data seems to have stopped some time ago what happened>?
See Dr Roy’s site.
Andrew writes “SST data seems to have stopped some time ago what happened”
One of the satellites failed, and is no longer reporting data.
Dr Spencer. I recall thinking that LTT seemed to be lagging cooler surface temps by several months a year ago. Is it possible that the “double dip” la nina has finally pulled the LTT down. I think with this double it is wrong to think of the present la nina as a modest one coming as it does where an el nino ‘should’ have been.
sharper00 says:
October 30, 2011 at 9:28 am
I agree that a direct daily comparison with dates seems silly. And the comparison with 2008 isn’t a good one at that – as 2008’s “warmest” time compared to the other recent years was in November. Even 2010 went below 2008 for a brief period during that time in AQUA channel 5.
But I don’t think your ENSO explanation is as powerful as you’d like considering there is roughly a 5-month lag for ENSO effects on global mean temperature. 5 months ago was late May…weren’t we ENSO neutral at that time?
Given this lag, I’m expecting several more months of relatively low global mean temps considering the current weak La Nina status.
-Scott
“Knuts says:
October 30, 2011 at 10:14 am
Ignore me my eyes aint what they used to be, didn’t see the minus sign :(”
Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes? ;*)
If it is colder aloft there is greater “lift” to storms, as I understand it. If I am correct, then this data suggests we could get some bigger-than-usual storms, as long as the oceans supply juicy, tropical air.
If we are in a period of transition, between a warm cycle and a cold cycle, then it seems there would be a greater clash between the past warmth, stored in the ocean, and the “present tense,” represented by the current atmosphere.
The last time various cycles were in the current state was the 1950’s I think.
Bill H says:
October 30, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Wade says:
October 30, 2011 at 1:55 pm
…
Troposphere is the buffer from colder upper air and warmer lower air.. cooling in the center is evidence of extream cold above it or decreased heat below.. it is only part of the picture.. i suspect that the El Nina [sic] (LA NINA) below is lowering temp below and the loss of heat is allowing it to cool further from above.
A cornerstone of the atmospheric physics of CAGW is that a cooling stratosphere is a signature of CAGW (IR reflected back to earth, less radiation to space, blah blah blah). Now however the stratosphere seems to be overdoing it, cooling so much that the stratosphere cold is leaking into the troposphere and cooling us at the surface. WUWT?
Is there any way to get just the data for the northern hemisphere on a graph?
> RACookPE1978 says:
> October 30, 2011 at 11:25 pm
> 0.29 degrees from the satellite measurements through Sept.
> Will this indicate October’s satellite temp’s are going to be even lower?
Should be, but it’s not guaranteed. I’ve plotted a linear regression (UAH and RSS monthly values versus monthly average of Channel 5 daily values) on a spreadsheet. Using data through October 29, the projected October values I get are…
UAH 0.129
RSS 0.156
No, it’s *NOT* that accurate, just an extrapolation. Do *NOT* invest/bet on these numbers.
“Walter Dnes says:
October 31, 2011 at 7:00 pm
I’ve plotted a linear regression
UAH 0.129
RSS 0.156”
I find that just by eyeballing 2008 and 2011 for October, the areas above and below the lines seem to be roughly equal, leading me to believe the October, 2011 values will be almost the same as for October, 2008 in each case. As it turns out, the UAH for October 2008 is 0.13 which is right on with your guess. However the RSS for October, 2008 was 0.179. So your RSS guess is just a bit lower. It will be interesting to see what happens.
UI guess this is OT, kinda, sorta.
The Nino 3.4 temp waffled for a few weeks, but made a big drop this week per http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for which is the source for the “ENSO Meter” on the right side. It dropped from -0.7 to -1.1. It’s pretty noisy data, so don’t read too much into it. Data for last two months:
Weekly SST data starts week centered on 3Jan1990 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07SEP2011 19.7-0.9 24.2-0.7 26.1-0.6 28.2-0.3 14SEP2011 19.6-1.0 24.1-0.7 26.0-0.7 28.0-0.5 21SEP2011 19.8-0.8 24.3-0.6 25.9-0.8 27.8-0.7 28SEP2011 19.9-0.7 24.1-0.7 26.0-0.7 28.0-0.5 05OCT2011 19.8-1.0 24.1-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.7-0.7 12OCT2011 19.7-1.2 24.1-0.8 25.8-0.8 27.9-0.5 19OCT2011 20.0-1.0 23.9-1.0 25.8-0.7 28.1-0.3 26OCT2011 21.2 0.0 23.8-1.1 25.4-1.1 28.0-0.4