Guest post by Ric Werme
Today is the customer test of Andrea Rossi’s 1 MW fusion reactor in his facility in Bologna, Italy. While Rossi initially expected to provide streaming video of the test, the customer nixed that because they didn’t want their people on a public video. (The customer has still not been identified.) Rossi also promised hourly updates during the test, but that didn’t happen, nor did I expect it too. In any major customer attending test, you just don’t take time off for that – the customer is far more important today than is the rest of the world!
I did promise in Tips & Notes to create this post this evening to provide a discussion forum, and a few details have made it out to warrant this post.
Bottom line – the customer will buy the reactor. The only thing that looks like a data point is that it was producing 470kW with zero heating power in (self-sustain mode). Given that one metric for a successful test was to produce at least 6X the input power, it certainly passes that test!
Rossi did get one blog post up (edited to convert all-caps to proper-caps and fix an obvious typo):
Andrea Rossi
October <28th, 2011 at 10:37 AM
First information regarding the 1 MW plant test:
We started regularly the test this morning . Everything is going well so far. The 1 MW E-Cat is working in self sustaining.
Tonight I will publish the non secret report that the customer will release.
Warm regards, I have to return to the plant. Sorry, I cannot answer to the many comments I am receiving. I will publish them probably I will never find the time to answer.
Warmest regards to all,
Andrea Rossi
That’s pretty much all there is from Italy so far. I don’t know if people measured 1 MW in powered mode, I assume somewhat more information will be released later this evening.
The naysayers are going strong, with comments like suggesting the customers consultants are in on the scam, and many calls to denounce the secrecy behind this test. Hey guys, this is a sales test, not a public event.
Even Jed Rothwell is upset:
[Vo]:Dismaying rumors about October 28 test
Jed Rothwell Fri, 28 Oct 2011 11:34:00 -0700
I have heard that observers of today’s tests are only being allowed to look at the equipment for a few minutes at a time, and they are not being introduced to the engineers who are taking the data. They are not being given a chance to establish the bona fides of these engineers, or to confirm that they are fully independent from Rossi.
If this is true then it goes without saying these results will have zero credibility.
If this is true then Rossi has once again taken a golden opportunity to convince the world his claims are true, and used it to make himself look like a crook.
I hope this is not true.
Whatever happens, I am sure we will get the full story. The reporters there can be relied upon to tell us the truth. If they are not allowed to interview the engineers and they cannot independently confirm the data, they will say so. I am sure Rossi knows they will tell the truth, so it seems unlikely he would impose such outrageous conditions. Unfortunately, he has often done outrageous things, such as telling people they are not allowed to measure the temperature with their own instruments.
– Jed
I’ll update this later tonight. In the meantime, discuss away, but please keep in mind this was not a science demonstration, not a public demonstration, but a step along the path to the first sale.
Also, keep in mind what this isn’t – it’s not an efficient electrical power system. The output is hot water or low pressure steam. While that can be turned into electricity, thermodynamics says it can’t be very efficient. There are plenty of applications for this sort of process heat, and that makes a fine initial target market.
Other sources of information include:
http://peswiki.com/index.php/News:October_28%2C_2011_Test_of_the_One_Megawatt_E-Cat
Sterling Allan from PES is on site.
http://www.e-catworld.com/2011/10/e-day-thread-rossis-1-mw-e-cat-plant-tested-by-first-customer/
One of the first independent blogs on the E-Cat.
http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=516#comments
This is Rossi’s blog, where he expected to post hourly updates. He approves posts there, and he’s been too busy to do that.
Updates
Here are links to reports from two people who were observed the test:
Sterling D. Allan (who was present), with Hank Mills from Pure Energy Systems News reported:
It ran for 5.5 hours producing 470 kW, while in self-looped mode. That means no substantial external energy was required to make it run, because it kept itself running, even while producing an excess of nearly half a megawatt. Rossi explained the reasons for this in the presentation he gave, which I videotaped and will be posting later.
Early in the day with a glitch showing up, Rossi said that they had to make a decision about whether to go for 1 MW output, not in self-sustain mode, or with self-sustain mode at a lower power level. The customer opted to go for the self-sustain mode.
Mats Lewan of NyTeknik reported:
According to the customer’s controller, Domenico Fioravanti, the plant released 2,635 kWh during five and a half hours of self sustained mode, which is equivalent to an average power of 479 kilowatts – just under half the promised power of one megawatt.
Rossi explained this with the customer’s priority to achieve self sustained mode, which supposedly makes the process more difficult to control than when electrical power is supplied to support the reaction.
“We had to decrease the power during self sustained mode as the temperature rose too much”, Rossi said after the test.
UPDATE: I’ve allowed Ric Werme to post articles on this, with trepidation (as he noted in his first and second article on it), on the outside chance that there’s something of value here. I wrote in the first article:
Foreword: I gave Ric Werme permission to do this essay. I don’t have any doubt that the original Cold Fusion research was seriously flawed. That said, this recent new development using a different process is getting some interest, so let’s approach it skeptically to see what merit it has, if any. – Anthony
After learning of some background on the inventor (which I wasn’t aware of before today h/t to Lubos)I have very large doubts now. While Wikipedia isn’t the best reference, if there wasn’t some truth here in this reference, I expect it would be removed as libelous:
Petroldragon was an environmental technology company, which through the 90’s aimed to develop oil, coal, and gas from organic waste. It was founded by, and used patents of Andrea Rossi, and Sergio Focardi. In the late 90’s the company was found guilty of dumping environmental toxins, as well as tax fraud. Its assets were seized. [1]
News of the Rossi procedure, patented in Italy, was reported by major newspapers. Jimmy Carter showed his interest in the technology, and offered Rossi a permanent entry visa to the United States.[1] After ten months’ work and a financial investment of half a billion Lire, Petroldragon had a facility that produced twenty tons of fuel oil a day, transforming one hundred tons of organic waste.
In 1993, the company created the Petroldragon Formula 3 racing team – racecars powered by waste-derived fuel that were able to compete with cars powered by the most common petroleum products.
In the late 90’s the company was found guilty of dumping environmental toxins, as well as tax fraud. Its assets were seized, as well as Rossi’s personal assets, and Rossi was arrested and imprisoned.
The track record of the man (combined with the current cloak of secrecy) suggests that this may very well be a scam. Unless there’s some open access and independent documentation of success, I’m going to prohibit any further articles. As I’ve said in comments, we try out ideas here. Based on what I know now, I think this one needs to be put aside as unworkable, and very possibly a scam until such time it is proven. When/if it is proven as scam or factual, we’ll have another report. -Anthony
Update by Ric:
I told Anthony I’d pull some stuff together looking at the allegations in better detail. It appears the only decent source of information is from a web site Rossi created a couple years ago to address the Petroldragon saga. The events in question mostly occurred before the Internet, so there isn’t as much out there as I thought. If you believe Rossi stuck Italy with huge amount of abandoned waste, you won’t believe Rossi’s explanation. If any Italian readers can comment on the events from their memory, please do.
Rossi’s web site is http://ingandrearossi.com/ . While there is an English translation there, a better one is at Steve Krivit’s http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/RossiECat/RossiPetroldragonStory.shtml
A timeline seems to be the best way to summarize things:
1971 to 1996: Created Dragon, a division of his family’s business and
manufactured waste incineration and smoke purification plants.
1978: Awarded patent for a process to convert organic waste material to oil.
Started Petroldragon to commercialize it.
198?: US President Jimmy Carter offered Rossi a permanent entry visa to the
United States to develop the process in the US.
1990 (this year doesn’t make sense): Bought Omar Refinery to process oil from Petroldragon into products for
sale.
1987: Raw materials for Petroldragon had been considered “secondary refuse matter” They were reclassified “toxic waste” as were all products derived from them. “In a very short time, all equipment was sequestered. The government then determined that tanks used for storing incoming raw materials were illegal dumps of toxic waste.”
“What followed was Rossi’s arrest and imprisonment, without any possibility to save the companies. The massive media smear campaign was successful in suddenly wiping out companies whose brand value was estimated at 50 billion lire (around 30-35 million USD in 1987) and which employed 150 people.”
The saga continues on with references to infringing on petroleum based producers and crime organizations entering the waste management business.
He continues “In the past 17 years, Rossi has been in 56 trials, forcing him into deep debt because of the financial disaster, and it is still not completely paid off.
Of all 56 prosecutions, the ones which led to imprisonment ended with acquittals; only 5 of the prosecutions for tax crime ended with convictions (with some custody imprisonments). All of the other prosecutions ended with acquittal or for statute of limitation. The same Petroldragon and Omar customers, even those who suffered factory seizures or prosecutions because of involvement with Rossi’s companies, testified as witnesses in favor of the defendant.” (The customers had products derived from “toxic waste” and those without waste handling permits were now in violation of the 1987 law.)
2000: During a journey back to Italy from the U.S., when he landing at Rome airport, he was served an arrest warrant for bankruptcy of Omar company and immediately imprisoned.
2009: Went back to the U.S. permanently and he directed the development of a new energy source. (I don’t think this refers to the E-Cat.)
As for the gold trafficking, all I can find points to an ingandrearossi.com page that is only in Italian. The Google translation is as difficult to read as any, but Rossi says the gold was recovered in the Petroldragon effort and claims “And documents deemed illegal sales of gold? All regular! Documents for import and export of precious? All regular! Cash payments? The money laundering? No trace of irregularity, because all economic transactions were made with credit and non-transferable checks, never cash!
The prosecution of Ariano Irpino, even myself, and acquitted all defendants in the investigation, not even get to trial on the grounds that: ‘… lack the evidence necessary to sustain the allegations in a process …’.”
So, was Rossi imprisoned? Yes. Did he break the law? Yes, but mainly because the law changed out from under him. Was he convicted? Yes, on less than 10% of the charges, and they were tax law violations, not a confidence scheme. Is he an evil person out to pull off the scam of the century? Probably not, as he seems to have not run afoul of the law before 1987. Does all this mean we should throw up our hands and write off Rossi’s LENR invention. I don’t think so, though it certainly adds a red flag. How about all the other evidence supporting LENR? I don’t think so. Does Lubos Motl know more about LENR than any of us? Probably, but I’m not convinced he’s right. Is Rossi or LENR too controversial for WUWT? Possibly, but I think it should remain because there are too many experiments with interesting results to be able to dismiss it.
-Ric
Snake-oil like this does not belong on a blog of WUWT’s quality. If you understand the laws that govern thermodynamics, you should immediately realize this is a scam no different from AGW and carbon permits trading. There’s one born every minute…
“Hey guys, this is a sales test, not a public event.”
You must be reading your own article very different from anybody else. Because, you know, it was meant to be a public event. Everytime an event is intended to be streamed across teh intertubes, and hourly updates are planned, that makes it pretty much public. We are offered here the reason for not showing it after all is employee privacy concerns, not project concerns; and on the updates we hear, there’s simply not enough time for them. Other than that, they are public… yeah.
How do you know they output 6x the energy if you don’t even knowhow it works?
In a year’s time, we just need to check that customer’s balance sheet to see how much money they’ve spent on ‘fuel’ – then we will know how it works 😉
I have rarely seem people getting so excited about nothing – that is, you don’t know anything about it, but somwehow vouch for it without any good reason at all.
Roger Knights says:
October 28, 2011 at 6:47 pm
“Maybe, just maybe, he WANTS to convey that impression, to cool the interest of potential competitors until he’s lengthened his developmental lead.”
Yes, and there is a more extreme rationale. There are nations such as Venezuela, Russia, and Iran that depend on conventional energy revenue, and which have rather tough minded leaders. Perhaps Rossi hopes to calibrate his demos so that he can make a sale, but not alert the rest of the world while he is still a very small operator. The comments here show that his object has been attained, IF the ‘customer’ is not part of an extensive scam. The secret catalyst and customer are good support for the scam theory, together with a warmup generator that was left on during the self sustained run. And, of course, the setup should have been operated for more than a few hours.
The scam theory will remain viable until routine operation of an industrial facility is obtained. Rossi does not intend to produce a perfect proof or a complete patent, since that is not in his interest. He knows his system needs further development to stabilize a high level output. He would have no chance of beating the competition that would arise after an early academic demonstration that satisfies critics. On the non-scam theory he has exhausted his personal resources and is now in a weak condition.
And, there are other radical energy projects and historical claims, such as the Polywell mentioned by others here, E. J. Lerner’s dense plasma focus attempts, T. H. Moray’s repeated historical demonstrations, P. Correa’s contemporary claims, Black Light Power, and others. These efforts have been blocked or slowed to a crawl. No commercial device has appeared. Rossi probably knows that individuals have a very hard time advancing radical energy claims with revolutionary implications. And, if he can attain the commercial level, the other concepts will get renewed attention, with unknown results.
It absolutely screams SCAM.
“The 2008[4] patent application[5] claims “a method and apparatus for carrying out nickel and hydrogen exothermal reactions,” with production of copper”… at 40 deg C, yeh right
It doesn’t even derse space on this forum.
You (some of you here, you know who you are) have a great learning opportunity: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. No such evidence is forthcoming. It’s a scam.
Now ask yourselves why you are prepared to accept that it might not be a scam when you are adamant that AGW is a scam despite mountains of evidence from independent sources in different disciplines all over thre world.
I would say the answer is that you like the potential outcome of this “research”, but you don’t like the outcome if AGW is real. I believe it is called “motivated reasoning”.
I thought it best to keep an open mind when this thing first came to light earlier in the year.
October was to be the date where all would be revealed to scientists/clients etc with a 1MW unit, and it was hyped as such.
The day has passed and very little new has really been revealed only we now have many devices creating an alleged and unverifiable 470kw, with a huge diesel generator out the back.
I’m sorry by extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence.
Who can’t be sceptial when we have an average looking report and some amateur footage that does not show things with any sort of detail?
Everyone here knows how science can become corrupted, and I don’t think that corruption started with global warming. I don’t know whether this test will work out – I hope it does – but I remember clearly the way the original reports of cold fusion were handled – hasty refutations by organisations such as Culham with their hot fusion research to protect, after which the whole field became taboo.
It has taken years to recover from that situation. BTW, there is a theory as to how the Coulomb barrier is breached. It is based (I think) on electrons in the lattice having a large effective mass, so that they can orbit very close to the proton – thus screening off the potential until the proton and nucleus are very close. I don’t know if this is a valid way to use the effective mass concept. The whole field is known as LENR.
crosspatch says:
October 28, 2011 at 9:47 pm
“People in the future are going to wonder why we were so stupid.”
“Look, conventional modern nuclear has the capability to meet ALL of America’s electrical needs if we want to. Reprocessing of the spent fuel means we have no spent fuel problem, either.”
I agree, however with the current mindset of politicians, it’s unlikely that there will be many people around, to question our good sense.
A youtube commentor suggested the generator model is a IVECO GSC400EA
Output 400kW.
– Any of those believers even a little suspicious yet?
To quote someone else, ‘I guess you *can* fool some of the people all of the time. 😉 Where is the possible clue? Here it is: “Probably the biggest opening for skeptics will be the continually running genset that is probably rated for 500 kW”. Hmmmm. Something produces 470 kW while connected to a 500 kW generator. LOL.. You know, some scammers in the past really hid the mechanism well, but wait one minute and I’ll show you a great example …
All of you must, I mean *MUST* read about this unbelievable scam … THE KEELY MOTOR COMPANY. The benefit of the doubt can never ever be given automatically to someone in these circumstances regardless of the insinuation from those quoted comments. The benefit of the doubt has no place in Science. Nor does trust, or goodwill. Especially not when there is money to be made.
There is much overlap here with the AGW scammers. Suspension of skepticism just because you wish for an easy solution to a problem (no more OPEC!) is exactly what the AGW CO2 scammers prey upon (Carbon tax will save the planet!).
How do some of us fail to make this connection!
I wont believe it until I see Jamie and Adam test it out on Mythbusters.
Nickel hydride appears to me to be the source of the energy. The E-cats will have been charged up with hydrogen beforehand. Applying heat starts the decomposition reaction, and this continues until the stored hydrogen is exhausted. With only a couple of tonnes of nickel, one could easily get to the sort of energy outputs claimed, but only for a few hours. The easy way to disprove this would simply be to keep it running.
I am loving this. It is a messy debate with bits of “fact” and BS flying all around the room; but the process works. It is dynamic and either it burns itself out (Rossi turns out to be a scammed, or we never get a clear-enough look behind the curtain) or it catches fire (he’s on to something new and strange). Is not this process of debate the way science itself works, or should? I am delighted that Anthony picked the topic.
I share the child-like sense of hope and wonder that LENR could work. It would solve so many practical problems. More philosophically, it would be a sign of “divine favor” that a bunch of stick-wielding simians had unlocked the doors of creation. That rhetoric is overheated to make the point: our collective self-regard, cultural confidence, excitement about our potential to “master the universe” would be transformed by this –not necessarily all for the good.
Of course, I am as hungry for a free lunch as the next guy and I grew up on a diet of science fiction, so I really hope it’s not a scam. But as a lawyer in the intellectual property world, and a guy who has heard the phrase “Coulomb barrier” once or twice, and who watched Pons and Fleischmann screw the pooch, I am going to wait and see. As others have said, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Right now, there are too many hidden corners, extra wires and puzzling protocols for me to want to buy a ticket to the show. Secret process steps I could understand. Careless or too-clever patent claims I could understand. But secret buyers? Extra power sources to control the process but that require almost as much power as the process is said to produce? No detection of radiation for a nuclear fusion reaction –apparently because no instrumentation was used, or else because that step was super-secret? Not convincing.
Chemical vs. Nuclear?
Chemical – If it runs only for a few hours
Nuclear – It runs for months
My bet, based on what we have seen so far, is that it is chemical with the ‘catalyst’ being the fuel.
I wonder how many jounalists other inventors such as Edison invited to trial runs of their inventions?
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
October 28, 2011 at 9:32 pm
“It’s a nuclear device. By the reasoning shown, if I was testing a small nuclear reactor, I could “get around” safety requirements by showing off the reactor to only a few people at a time. Does that make sense to you? How many safety regulations for nuclear devices are one allowed to “duck” by only having a small reactor with limited visitor access?”
He says he made it a private event, indicating that each visitor enters the room on his own responsibility. Makes sense. Rules for public demonstrations don’t apply in that case. Probably, if he lets the entire group in at once, it would automatically be classified as a public demo.
Saying “Maybe, just maybe,” isn’t the language of a credulous believer. I was merely pointing out a possibility.
My hopes for this device have been diminished by Rossi’s behavior in recent days, as pointed out by some comments above.
I’m pleased we’ve had threads on this topic; they’ll provide a record of events and interpretations that people in the future can use to reconstruct how this device was being looked at by contemporaries.
A well-concealed experiment, to prevent theft, leaves me very suspicious. Just spent three years chasing double-dutch top secret processes that didn’t work. Hiding the process and results is the best way to cover up poor science and poorer measurements. Part of the time was chasing a novel and heretofore undiscovered property of zeolites. After months of obfustication of experimental technique and results, it turns out that we had been wasting time on measurement error.
This sounds much like my recent experience. Pardon me if I’m very skeptical. However, Rossi might want to talk to the owner of the company I work for, he is a sucker for non-experts who have secret processes and flashy stories. If he made his cold fusion machine out of junkyard parts, so much better.
As promised, here’s the link to Italian radio programmes about Rossi’s machine.
smells like a scam
I don’t think the customer is Manutencoop. OTOH many unidentified Swedes were in attendance.
John West:
Regarding the Cu isotopes – that’s what made me convinced it was a fraud. It seemed as if Rossi had provided a sample of Cu filed off some plumbing pipework. That is not the balance of isotopes that would result from a nuclear reaction.
Unless he gave a fake sample to prevent anyone from deducing the underlying process – and I can’t see that happening.
Seriously, I think this kind of article does not belong on WUWT, it just makes this blog look foolish and affects its credibility. In any case, what does this cold fusion article have to do with AGW? It’s a distraction from the focus of this blog. I’m especially surprised to see this article after reading how Anthony caught Al Gore’s scam ‘high-school physics’ experiment. I defo do not visit WUWT to read pseudoscience. Next thing, they’ll be telling us that perpetual motion machines and Tesla generators work. For those who need a refresher course in physics, see MIT’s free open courseware video lectures by Professor Walter Lewin.
Septic Matthew says:
October 28, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Did you know that at the time, MIT was charged with “finding out” whether there was a reaction and they responded within two (2) weeks. They never called Pons and Fleischmann to find out it takes four (4) weeks to load the palladium with deuterium BEFORE the reaction would even start. But here’s the kicker–They never asked Pons and Fleischmann a single question about how to do the experiment. They just charged ahead and ignored the five years of research Pons and Fleischmann put into the experiment before they got the reactions they did.
Now wouldn’t you agree that’s an example of Epic Fail on the part of these so-called “researchers” at MIT? And did you know MIT had $billions of dollars in hot fusion grant money pending at the time? Would “follow the money trail” be a viable reason for their jumping the gun on CF? Indeed it would. The team of investigators at MIT that were asked to investigate this were part of its lavishly-funded hot fusion laboratory, then called the MIT Plasma Fusion Center. (They knew NOTHING about cold fusion at the time, by the way.)
http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/MalloveEmitspecial.pdf
Or you could read the companion article referenced in the link above written in 1999 by Dr. Eugene Mallove, who was the Chief Science Writer of the MIT News Office from 1987 to 1991 which says in part:
It should be obvious to anyone so inclined to do the research that government funding of hot fusion, similar to government funding of CAGW, has corrupted the scientific process in that field. And similar to the current paradigm, those like Andrea Rossi who are willing to put their own money on the line in the quest for commercialization of LENR are no different that those of us getting big fat checks from “Big Oil” in the quest for the truth about global warming. (Obviously, my reference to “checks from Big Oil” is a crass ruse–just to spell it out for eveybody.)
I have followed Mr Rrossie for some time now.
From trying to convert wast material into Petrol.
It was said that was a scam.
I understand that the Nickel has to be 999 nickel.
The last test for the buyer ran in self-sustained mode for 5.5 hours.
It produced aprox Half a Mega Watt.
There was 400 kwatt generator around back of the Unit.
( was this running at full blast for 5.5 hours :-] )
I think the Engineers doing the tests might have noticed if it was .
I hold an open mind that this is still to good to be true.
Oh! but please let it be True.
If the Leonardo Corporation does go into production of the 10kwatt domestic unit.
At the end of November, I will wait a year and the buy one.
Here’s hoping for a cheaper warmer future.