How long before somebody blames it on global warming? Who will be first? Romm? McKibben? AP Science writer Seth Borenstein?, some clueless politician?
New York has received measurable snow before Halloween only 3 times since 1869. These events were never more than one inch. If the forecast holds, this would be the earliest 1″ snowfall in New York City since the Civil War.
Here’s NOAA’s snowfall forecast map for the area:
And the warning is out:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 855 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...A MAJOR EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY... NJZ002-NYZ067-068-291000- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0600Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 855 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY IN INTENSITY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. THE DAMAGE COULD BE QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 855 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...A MAJOR EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY... NJZ002-NYZ067-068-291000- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0600Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 855 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY IN INTENSITY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. THE DAMAGE COULD BE QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Well we already know the arguments the warmistas will use so let’s have some answers ready. Is NYC above or below average temp right now. I’m guessing if it was much above for Oct it couldn’t snow at all but I could be wrong. And what’s the global anomaly looking like these days? Let’s know for sure if we can use the temps to debunk any “Warmer causes more snow” logic twisters.
Climate is what you expect.
Weather is what you get.
Has anyone done a study on temperature anomalies at airport weather stations, centered around the times when snow and ice shuts down the airports, compared to non-airport and non-urban stations in the surrounding areas?
If jet engines have an effect on the readings, then you should see a big deviation compared to normal conditions… and it would also show if the calibrations are thrown off due to UHI (or AHI) effects.
Posting before the power/phone goes out in western Md. About 3-4 inches of very wet snow here, weighing down trees that still haven’t shed their leaves. First thing when I stuck my head outside this morning was the sickening sound of cracking trees/branches from above on the mountain slope.
The earliest-season snow I remember was my first yr at Virginia Tech in 1977 and a 4″ snow fell on Oct 6 causing alot of tree damage.
Climate Science 101. The GHG effect explained:
Things get warmer, it is caused by CO2
Things get colder, it is caused by CO2
Things stay the same, it is caused by aerosols.
What part of climate science do you folks not understand?
Al Gore must be visiting New York City this weekend.
This must be from the Gore Effect!
beng: “Posting before the power/phone goes out in western Md. About 3-4 inches of very wet snow here, weighing down trees that still haven’t shed their leaves. ”
At laaast, actual data rather than a projection from a model 😉
Rich.
I think it’s fast and furious Solyndra like warming climate change global disruption weather syndrome.
Snow and then record cold coming? Occupy will be renamed Exodus.
And I hope it is not a harbinger of Cilvil War 2.
Sounds like a rare and exciting event! 🙂
Sitting in my apartment in New England, happily burning natural gas to keep warm, and getting ready for the unhealthy dose of “global warming” I’ll be scraping off my car tomorrow. 🙁
Is Al Gore visiting NY or something?
Larry Fields says:
October 28, 2011 at 11:36 pm
I think that it would be appropriate for James Hansen to visit, sporting a Speedo for the occasion. 🙂
==================
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/embarrassing-picture-of-bill-clinton-and-al-gore
R. Shearer says:
October 29, 2011 at 8:10 am
And I hope it is not a harbinger of Cilvil War 2.
Warmists verus the Skeptics!
They are predicting some lightning and thunder with the snow in New Hampshire tonight. That means they think the storm will be bombing out. “Bombogenisis.” So far it is just grey out. Lots of sarcasm down at the local market. “Snow is good. It chases all the riff raff out of New Hampshire.” “This isn’t bad. When I was a kid it was so bad we had to dig down ten feet to pick the winter apples.”
I’m a little nervous about that blob of moisture from Rida getting sucked up over Florida. It seems to me the really big storms often have extra “gas” supplied by the tropics.
Kelvin Vaughan says:
Warmists verus the Skeptics!
Welfare recipients vs those paying for welfare
Socialists vs. Constitutionalists
union vs anti union
gun owners vs anti gun
people losing jobs vs a government causing higher unemployment
etc., etc., etc……….
You name it, it’s all happening in America.
Stephen Wilde, that is interesting. Low solar (especially UV) is a much better explanation of blocking events than the global warming contortions (due to anomalies in the Arctic due to melting ice). Even if global warming caused blocking or other similar weather, it would represent a negative feedback.
On topic: ended up with 3.8 inches here in NW Virginia at 600 feet elevation. There is a lot more snow higher up on the mountain where it would be more expected this time of year. When I step outside I can hear a tree limb breaking several times each minute.
Probably not coincidentally I had the first hoarfrost on the roof of my daylight basement this morning. Low temperature was 36-37F measured at 6 feet above ground, clear sky, calm, and low relative humidity in two locations – 10 feet above the roof and several feet below it to the side where stairs descend to the entrance. Perfect conditions for this. That roof (which is almost flat and covered with white mineral roofing) is the first and only thing on my rural property that I know that will get frost on it when temperature is 5F above freezing at several feet above ground. Closer to freezing but still above it the next things that usually show frost are automobile roofs.
As Yogi Berra once said “You can observe a lot by just watching”.
I got a hangnail on my left thumb.
Dang that CO2!
Hi, this really has nothing to do with the article but my question is…since the AMSR-E satellite went offline earlier this month, are there any sources of information that will provide an accurate estimate of the current Arctic Sea Ice Extent? Thanks.
The warmists are a bit slow to blame this on climate change.. This is all I could find: http://thestir.cafemom.com/in_the_news/128083/monster_noreaster_is_scarier_than
Rhys Jaggar says:
October 29, 2011 at 1:00 am
There is a chance, on record, that you get 20°C in Dec but what chance? What chance warm in dec? then Ryys?
Absolutely! So tired of “scientists” with “facts” dictating what they “know” instead of using allowing, non-agenda driven corporate spokespeople on the far right fringes telling us what they believe in their gut (and in their financial interests).
America STANDS ALONE in the world in refuting science. The rest of the world community mindlessly believes what scientists tell them instead of turning to “fair and balanced” impartial voices on AM radio and FOX news telling them the truthiness of climate change being a “hoax”.
America – #1 Baby!!!
From the Portsmouth NH NWS discussion. Thundersnow in October next to the warm Atlantic? Really? Wow.
“Winter storm warnings are in effect for the entire forecst area
for Saturday night and into Sunday. Also high wind warnings have
been issued along the coast to reflect the gusty winds
expected…the low level jet of 50-65 knots winds work their way down
to 1000 feet and with plenty of upward vertical velocity and possible convection some of
the winds should mix down to the surface at times. The reason for
the High Wind Warning and not a Blizzard Warning is because the
blizzard criteria of the prevailing visibility of less than 1/4 mile
for 3 hours and sustained high winds would not be met due to the
wet nature of the snow and the potential mix with rain for a
time…but gusty winds of 50-65 miles per hour at times along the coast
should verify the high wind warnings.
What we are about to witness will make the history books as a
classic/textbook scenario for explosive cyclogenesis sets up along
the middle Atlantic coast today as a very strong shortwave gets driven
east-southeast and becomes negatively tilted as it crosses the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia area
today. With ample amounts of sensible and latent heat with still
warm waters sitting offshore along with a tight baroclinic zone
and the cold high to the north due to exiting jet well NE in the
Canadian Maritimes means everything is in place. Models are all in
full agreement with intensity and track which brings it just north
of the benchmark of 40n/70w with the middle level low tracking over
Cape Cod which puts the heaviest snows across the southern half of
New Hampshire and ME although even the mountains reach warning criteria due
to wraparound and some oragraphic influences. Temperatures will
be plenty cold enough for snow across the entire area tonight and
Sunday.
The time table: toward evening the precipitation overspreads the
rest of the area further north and changes to snow over all areas.
The heavier snow will spread from S-north in the early evening and
winds will increase after midnight. By Sunday morning 6-12 inches
is expected with some locally higher amounts expected. Used ratios
of 9-10:1 for snow to quantitative precipitation forecast amts. Later tonight snowfall rates of
1-3 inches are possible over southern areas along with possible
thunderstorms due to the rapid intensification of the storm center off
the coast.”
Amazing.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Here’s the latest from NOAA:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ072&warncounty=NYC061&firewxzone=NYZ072&local_place1=New+York+NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory
6-10″ in NYC