UAH Global Temperature Update for September 2011: +0.29 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for September, 2011 retreated a little again, to +0.29 deg. C (click on the image for the full-size version):
The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are this year’s monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.309 +0.270 +0.175
The global sea surface temperatures from AMSR-E through the end of AMSR-E’s useful life (October 3, 2011) are shown next. The trend line is, again, for entertainment purposes only:
On the subject of the drop-off in temperatures seen in the AMSR-E data in the last week, I have been getting questions about the daily AMSU tracking data at the Discover website which shows Aqua AMSU channel 5 (which our monthly updates are computed from) is now entering record-low territory (for the date, anyway, and only since the Aqua record began in 2002). While I have always cautioned people against reading too much into week-to-week changes in global average temperature, this could portend a more significant drop in the next (October) temperature update, as the new La Nina approaches.
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“The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.”
Then it should be removed. It adds nothing except the implication that a third order fit has some significance.
Boy, I sure missed summer. This year we had a couple of weeks (Van, Can) vs the usual 2-3 months. If this is the new normal …
Fred H. Haynie says:
October 4, 2011 at 7:09 pm
I’m pretty much sold on Venus and adiabatic expansion. We do have a temperature profile all the way to the surface, IIRC.
I was talking about the polynomial – as you travel away from the modeled area, the terms with larger exponents begin to dominate the equation and they follow cubic curves quickly upward or downward. This is quite different than tangents, those have asymptotes where they climb quickly to infinity and reappear with a negative sign.
While it’s easy to point to sine and cosine functions in the natural or man-made
world, tangents don’t show up in any place I can recall.
“”””” Fred H. Haynie says:
October 4, 2011 at 7:09 pm
……………………………………….
While it’s easy to point to sine and cosine functions in the natural or man-made
world, tangents don’t show up in any place I can recall. “””””
Well of course Tangents show up in the natural world.
We are all the time talking about the oblique reflectance off the surface of water in the polar regions.
The condition for zero reflectance for the polarisation component with the electric vector in the plane of incidence; which also is the condition for the reflected and transmitted rays to be perpendicular to each other, is simply Tan (i) = N2/N1 Where (i) is the angle of incidence (between ray and surface normal), and N1 ; N2 are the refractive indices for the first and second media. Same equation holds for incidence from either air or water. The angle (i) is normally referred to as (B); the Brewster angle.
It is an important condition in Geometrical Optics, since the total surface reflectance is almost constant from zero angle (normal incidence) up to (B) and then the reflectance sky rockets rapidly beyond that to 100% at the critical angle, or at 90 degrees depending on which side the ray is incident on.. (and the 90 degrees is for the air incidence case.) There is NO critical angle for incidence from the lower index medium.
Dinostratus,
“Then it should be removed. It adds nothing except the implication that a third order fit has some significance.”
No, no. It also adds discomfiture to some of those who fear the fit that they cannot help but infer.
It also draws a firm contrast with the second order, geomoetric, and exponential functions that the temperatures are “supposed” to fit, according to adherents of certain religious beliefs. Further discomfiture.
That’s the aforementioned “entertainment” part.
Lord Beaverbrook says:
October 4, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Here in the UK there is a predicted 10 degree C drop in daytime temps between Monday and Friday this week.
I only hope that we can adapt, please send International funds to……
!0 C a week that means by Christmas it will be 120 C colder.
Warning warning Ice age coming, my model says so!
I think that the word we might be looking for is asymptote, and not tangent.
From my Calculus book, in the algebra review section:
For math novices, the “->” can be read as “approaches”.
As to the 3rd order polynomial fit, I like it, please keep using it.
How many Septembers have been warmer in the satellite record?
How annoying it must be for the ‘warmists’, to see how briskly the Arctic sea ice is rebuilding… (H/T to all those nice graphs…)
The only “warm spot” appears to be in the Pacific Ocean east of Japan. Is this a true +4.3 C temperature rise or a measurement error?? Are there any ocean buoys that measure ocean temperature in that area to confirm?? What are their values??
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Is this a “not named” ocean upwelling spot?? As La Nina [cold] pushes down, do other areas of the Pacific, “push up”??
Many questions: but with a quiet Sun [relatively], the only heat is from the oceans…
David says: October 5, 2011 at 6:30 am
“How annoying it must be for the ‘warmists’, to see how briskly the Arctic sea ice is rebuilding… ”
‘Rebuilding’ to LESS on this day (5th Oct) than in any previous measured year – except one!
Polynomials are often very good at providing nice-looking fits to time series data. However, never be tempted to do any “forecasting” by extrapolating polynomials! The software I use to produce polynomials also calculates automatically the appropriate confidence intervals for the fitted line and for a further single observation of the same family. I can guarantee that Roy’s entertainment graphic would be much funnier if the confidence intervals were also shown. If I had the data I’d produce the lot in half a minute, but would be unable to post them here :-((
Dr. Lurtz says:
October 5, 2011 at 6:53 am
Is this a “not named” ocean upwelling spot?? As La Nina [cold] pushes down, do other areas of the Pacific, “push up”??
Deep water is all cold, only cold water upwells, not warm. The same is true of downwelling.
Only idiots like Trenberth think that warm water can be pushed downward into the constantly cold and denser deep ocean water.
SST does not mean very much, all it takes for an increase in SST is a sunny day or two with no wind.
James of the West
The delay is still there – after the abortive proto-el Nino in May, the Nino index has been steadily falling ever since. It is already technically in La Nina territory below -0.5 – what Roy Spencer means is that it will be another month or two before we are in full blown La Nina.
Falling ENSO index and Pacific SST means air temperatures continuing to fall – with the delay of a few months still there.
So the temperature anomaly for September was again above the 30 year average and people here are saying that we are beginning to cool? What’s up with that?
Anthony, when are you finally going to tell the people here on your site about how much money you personally made from your Surface Station debacle? Doesn’t FOIA also apply to you?
REPLY: Asked and answered the last time you were on a bender. FOIA? Heh, well if you claim that I’m subject to it, then I guess you must be also. Inquiring minds want to know.
Cheers – Anthony
onion2, you’ve been around long enough to know (if you’ve bothered to read) that it’s not simply a case of the whole world warming with Nino and cooling with Nina. Dig out Bob Tisdale’s numerous posts containing the data and graphs if you haven’t already.
While some on both sides of the debate hyperventilate over the weather or short-term spikes and troughs, it’s more enlightening to take the long view based on data and plausible mechanisms. If one does that, the most reasonable expectation is one of a cooler few decades ahead. For that to be possible, CO2 CANNOT be the primary driver of climate, let alone man-made CO2.
Time will tell. Fortunately, we have a lot of time to assess it, given the failure of model projections to match the reality of flatlining temps. It’s the politically-motivated schmucks who have little time to force through their dreams in the face of increasing suspicion.