Guest post by Erl Happ
This post was generated in response to the Christopher Monkton thread. It is not a criticism of Christopher Monkton but of our tendency to imagine that artful mathematicians (I am not one) are sufficiently sophisticated to deal with complex problems. Indeed the debate as to the value of feedback processes illustrates the lack of utility of mathematics when unconstrained by observation of the real world. Climate Science is full of it.
As I understand it the proposition goes like this:
Enhanced GG composition, more back radiation, enhanced evaporation, more cloud and IF cloud enhances back radiation, the surface warms. The enhancement of cloud density depending upon the IF supposedly represents the feedback.
But cloud reflects incoming energy. The feedback notion requires that the loss of energy to the surface due to cloud reflection of incoming short wave radiation is outweighed by the increase in energy trapped in the ‘below cloud level system’ due to cloud returning OLR to the surface. That’s the IF factor again.
The IF proviso requires that evaporation from the surface not only keeps pace with the increase in surface temperature. It must exceed it for cloud density to be enhanced as the surface warms.
There is a little logical problem here. If the feedback from long wave radiation exceeded the value of the reflected short wave, the oceans would soon boil. That problem is sidestepped by suggesting that it is only the high ice cloud that is important in the feedback. So, in the end the result depends upon the mix in the categories of clouds that provide net reflection versus those that provide net surface warming and whether the moisture supply to the atmosphere keeps up and somehow tips the balance towards those clouds that are supposed to provide a net warming effect .
This is already too complex and includes unknowns that are unquantifiable.
Now, lets look at the real world. Consider:
A
Do clouds warm the surface? Logically, if clouds had that effect, with more clouds the surface should warm. But near surface clouds arrive in warm tropical air. It’s warm because of its origin. The warmer and wetter it is the more the precipitation. This warm moist tropical air produces cloud and precipitation strictly in proportion to the chilling it receives. Warm that same air and the cloud disappears. (The Foehn effect). Precipitation enhances the supply of moisture at the surface cooling the surface. The air is in constant movement and the system is mind bogglingly dynamic. But one constant is the decline of surface temperature as we move from equator to pole. Satellites show that warm moist tropical air travels all the way but is dried as it moves. Hence the polar latitudes are cold deserts with the air in these regions containing little moisture that remains to be precipitated producing a gradually accumulating mass of ice in perennially sub freezing temperatures. Lesson: The presence of low clouds reflect very recent change in air temperature and is unrelated to the supply of moisture to the atmosphere from the surface. The presence of these clouds depends upon the supply of energy to the tropical ocean and the direction of the wind.
B
In mid latitudes the atmosphere between 600hpa and 100hpa (where the ice cloud called cirrus and stratus is located) responds in terms of its cloud cover to a moisture supply from places remote to the point of observation. (tropical convection, polar frontal action). Supply is relatively invariable and as a result cloud comes and goes according to flux in the temperature of the upper troposphere. Temperature in this zone is a function of ozone content and depends upon stratospheric processes. In the mid latitudes the troposphere above 300hPa contains appreciable ozone and peaks in temperature in mid winter when outgoing radiation peaks. At this time the surface reaches its seasonal minimum temperature. Radiation peaks in winter due to the enhancement of the high pressure cells of descending warming air in the winter hemisphere. The temperature of the cloud bearing layer does not relate at all to change in surface temperature. If radiation increases the presence of ozone ensures that the air warms and the cloud disappears.
C
For cloud to increase as the atmosphere warms it requires that evaporation is enhanced as the surface warms so as to enhance relative humidity promoting enhanced cloud cover. This proposition is tested once a year in the northern hemisphere. Because of the preponderance of land which is opaque to short wave radiation (unlike the sea) near surface air temperature increases strongly. In effect the surface returns warmth to the atmosphere by conduction and radiation. The convective process of heat loss via decompression (that we see in the tropics) is inoperable because of an insufficiency of moisture supply to the atmosphere. Transfer by conduction and radiation is therefore enhanced and the entire troposphere warms.
We see here that vvaporation fails to promote the addition of sufficient moisture to the atmosphere to maintain cloud cover. So, cloud falls away and global air temperature peaks in July in conformity with this strong seasonal influence driven by the accident of geography which is the northern hemisphere. A potential runaway feedback system that is the exact opposite of that posited above (warming surface more cloud) is curtailed by the passage of the Earth around the sun while it spins on its tilted axis.
In January, when the suns irradiance is 7% stronger due to orbital considerations global near surface air temperature reaches its minimum because global cloud cover peaks. Taken in its entirety, cool the Earth’s atmosphere and cloud increases. The surface cools. It will cool in the face of enhanced radiation.
Summarizing: Does the presence of cloud result in surface warming? No. In January, global cloud cover is 3% greater than July. Irradiance 7% greater. Surface temperature 4° cooler. Will a warmer sun heat the Earth? Not necessarily. It depends upon what happens to the cloud. If there were less land and more sea the ocean would gradually warm.
D
The proposition that cloud is enhanced as the near surface atmosphere warms is also testable by looking at historical data for precipitable water as the globe has warmed. Reanalysis tells us that it actually falls away.
E
The Earth system also demonstrates what happens when additional greenhouse gas is added to the troposphere. This happens in the coupled circulation over Antarctica. The system waxes and wanes according to the activity of the night jet in modulating the ozone content and temperature of the upper stratosphere. The convection that results involves warmer ozone rich air (10ppm) ascending. Relatively ozone poor stratospheric air (say 7ppm) descends into the troposphere (naturally containing ozone at the ppb level) that in consequence becomes ozone rich. The consequence is gross warming of the troposphere on the margins of Antarctica and the generation of the lowest surface atmospheric pressures on the planet. The flux in pressure in this zone depends simply upon the rate of ozone churn into the troposphere. Ozone is carried towards the equator by the counter westerlies destroying cloud as it moves by virtue of its greenhouse gas property. It absorbs at 9.6 micrometers.
As this greenhouse gas is added to the troposphere cloud cover falls away. The surface temperature feedback is due to enhanced shortwave radiation, not longwave retention. This too is a potentially disastrous feedback scenario that is limited by the fact that the ozone content of the stratosphere varies within limits and the Earth’s surface is mainly water which soaks up energy without adding a lot of moisture to the atmsophere. Given enough time, the feed rate of ozone peaks and shortly after atmospheric moisture and cloud cover recovers.
F
The prime source of long wave radiation emanating from the Earth system is the high pressure cells of the winter hemisphere where the air warms by compression as it descends, a cloud free zone promoting surface warming when it is most needed…………..despite the abundant long wave radiation streaming out to space.
Conclusion : Cloud cools.
Paul,
That low pressure zone appearing in the north Pacific and the Atlantic in January is a signature of the Arctic Oscillation (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation as it manifests under the impact of the coupled circulation of the stratosphere and the troposphere over the Arctic. It is the NH version of the low pressure zone that surrounds Antarctica. The relative strength of those NH and SH low pressure zones is an indicator of where the climate is driven from. Each of those low pressure zones represents ozone being driven into the troposphere affecting cloud cover and surface temperature. It is the change in the strength of those pressure zones that represents climate change in action. Manifestly it is the Antarctic that drives the system. Paradoxically the Arctic is very influential Nov-March.
AnimVerticalVelocity
http://i54.tinypic.com/2ch4x28.png
AnimOmega700hPa
http://i53.tinypic.com/28tvqt1.png
A few more:
AnimHeating
http://i55.tinypic.com/317jchy.png
AnimWaterVaporFlux_
(column integrated water vapor flux with their convergence)
http://i51.tinypic.com/126fc77.png
AnimWind850hPa_
http://i52.tinypic.com/nlo3dw.png
AnimPolarWind850hPa
http://i54.tinypic.com/29vlc0x.png
Tip: TinyPic says image must be under 5MB, but seems to actually mean 4.75MB. 4.70MB & 4.69MB worked, but 4.89MB & 4.77MB did not — e.g. had to trim off a little more than just non-essentials of “AnimWaterVaporFlux_” – and tinypic demanded minor trimming of “AnimWind850hPa_”.
Erl: May & November really stand out (on average) as hard, qualitative topography/flow switches.
Paul Vaughan says: October 1, 2011 at 9:10 pm
Erl: May & November really stand out (on average) as hard, qualitative topography/flow switches.
And that can be related to the polar circulations. The Arctic cuts in affecting the strength of the Antarctic circulation in November and runs till March.
What these maps do not reflect is change over time. There is a big difference in the circulations pre and post 1978 when Antarctic 10hPa temperatures peaked.
It would be good to have accurate descriptions of what the data actually represents because that is not always obvious to people like myself untrained in meteorology.
Paul, Do you mid if I refer to your animations in posts?
Just acknowledge my volunteer animation work & JRA-25 Atlas:
“Credit of the JRA-25 Atlas
The source of the JRA-25 Atlas should be duly acknowledged in papers, publications, press releases or other communications regarding the Atlas.
Example: The JRA-25 Atlas data used for this study are provided from the cooperative research project of the JRA-25 long-term reanalysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).”
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/atlas-tope.htm
Anim2mT
http://i55.tinypic.com/dr75s7.png
AnimPrecipitableWater
http://i52.tinypic.com/9r3pt2.png
Regards.
You’ll likely disagree with their interpretation Erl:
Cold causing record Ozone loss over Arctic: scientists (Sunday Oct. 2)
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20111002/arctic-ozone-hole-111002/
“Scientists say an unprecedented ozone “hole” opened up above the Arctic last year, caused by an unusually prolonged period of extremely low temperatures.
A NASA-led study says the amount of ozone destroyed was comparable to that seen in some years in the Antarctic, where an ozone “hole” has formed each spring since the mid 1980s.
[…]
They found that at some altitudes, the cold period in the Arctic lasted more than 30 days longer in 2011 than in any previously studied Arctic winter, leading to the unprecedented ozone loss.
This year’s ozone loss occurred over an area considerably smaller than that of the Antarctic ozone holes.
That’s because the Arctic polar vortex, a persistent large-scale cyclone within which the ozone loss takes place, was about 40 per cent smaller than a typical Antarctic vortex.”
Paul Vaughan says: October 2, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Paul, I think that I can agree with what they say.
Low temperatures in the upper stratosphere and at the surface and ozone loss go hand in hand with increased surface pressure (low Arctic Oscillation Index) and enhanced night jet activity bringing erosive nitrogen oxides from the mesosphere into the stratosphere.
“the Arctic polar vortex, a persistent large-scale cyclone within which the ozone loss takes place, was about 40 per cent smaller than a typical Antarctic vortex.”
And that is where the NOx is active.
If they had gone on to say that the ozone loss was due to chlorofluorocarbons from aerosols and refrigerators then I would have disagreed.
The word ‘vortex’ is used to refer to two different things but here I think they are using it correctly to refer to the night jet in the stratosphere. The other use refers to the surface low pressure systems where the polar easterlies engage the westerlies that is more properly called the ‘polar front’. Hence ‘polar outbreaks’ when pressure is high and the easterlies ‘break out’ swinging across the Great Plains all the way to New Orleans.
In the last ten years the lowest AO has been recorded in January February in 2010 and 2011. No other years come close.
“Rex says he understands the need for budgetary constraint, but takes issue with recent statements by Environment Canada official Karen Dodds who said there is “redundancy” in the existing Canadian networks that can be eliminated.
“There is no redundancy,” says Rex, noting that the current Canadian measurements are essential to the international ozone monitoring program.
“The scientists in Environment Canada are bright guys,“ he says. “They have never wasted money by doing redundant measurements.”
Ozone hole said to be due to the work of man. These guys don’t want to know about NOx from the mesosphere.
Paul Vaughan
I would like to make an animation of the polar vortex. How do I do it?
Erl, you’ll see “How to create an animated PNG?” over here:
http://www.truekolor.net/learn-how-to-create-an-animated-png/
That links you to the APNG Anime Maker download here:
http://sites.google.com/site/cphktool/apng-anime-maker/APNGAnimeMaker.rar?attredirects=0&d=1 (don’t click this unless you want to do the download)
It’s lightweight simple software.
You just “Open” the images as a batch & “Save”.
Tip: Throw them all in a single folder beforehand [just drag-&-drop from the web to the folder] so you can click somewhere (anywhere) inside APNG Anime Maker’s “Open” browse-box & ‘select-all’ (Ctrl-A).
Optional Tip: I’ve been renaming the climatology image files “01”, “02”, “03”, … “12” so I can sort alphanumerically and spin through them at my own speed (with keyboard arrow keys) using Windows Picture and Fax Viewer (which cycles inside a folder).
A google search will turn up lots of alternative approaches. GIF files take up less memory, but PNG offers much better quality for most of the climatologies.
Thanks, I will give it a go.
Paul;
All the png animations work fine with my FF 8.0 on XP Pro.