24 Hours of Climate Reality: Gore-a-thon – Hour 21

A new post containing a cartoon from Josh will appear every hour. At the end of the 24 hours, everything will be collated on a single page. Readers are encouraged to post skeptical arguments below, as well as offer comments on what has been seen from the Climate Reality Project so far.


Models go Gaga with Gigo

Here’s a recent GIGO example via our friend Pierre Gosselin

IPCC Models Completely Botch East Africa Rainfall Projections

Portuguese blog Ecotretas here reveals how the IPCC completely botched its forecasts for East African rainfall in claiming the Horn of Africa should expect more precipitation. With severe drought now ravaging the region, the IPCC forecasts and models are beginning to look like a complete farce.

Deadly drought and famine hit East Africa (Chart source: USAID)

Lately we have all been hearing about the serious drought that has been causing misery in impoverished East African countries – especially Somalia with tens of thousands of deaths, and some 750 000 expected to die in the next four months, Ecotretas points out that “one would imagine that the IPCC would have predicted it” with their multi-million dollar super computer models and “leading scientists”. Well, it turns out they indeed made forecasts back in 2007, but today just the opposite is occurring, i.e. instead of getting more rainfall, as was forecast by the IPCC, rainfall has all but disappeared.

Ecotretas looked up what the IPCC projected for Eastern Africa in its 4 Assessment Report of 2007. For example in Chapter 11 of the Executive Summary:

There is likely to be an increase in annual mean rainfall in East Africa.”

On page 869, in Chapter (emphasis added):

The increase in rainfall in East Africa, extending into the Horn of Africa, is also robust across the ensemble of models, with 18 of 21 models projecting an increase in the core of this region, east of the Great Lakes.”

So much for the ensemble of models. Surely one can only conclude that the claims made by the IPCC’ models concerning global temperatures for the next 100 or 200 years simply can no longer be taken seriously. Read more at ECOTRETAS here.


Josh put a lot of work into these, so if you like the work, drop by the tip jar. Unlike Gore’s CRP, he won’t spam you asking for more. Buy him a beer, he’s worked a long time bringing us enjoyment with only some “attaboys” sent his way.

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September 15, 2011 1:12 pm

How about lets generate a Hockey Stick for Al….If enough of us tune in to his broadcast say, at 8:30pm GMT (2030) we might be able to do it.

September 15, 2011 1:12 pm

A Spanish guy is making the Portuguese presentation!!!
Gosh, I’m proud they didn’t manage to find any Portuguese to sell this snake-oil…

Scott Covert
September 15, 2011 1:13 pm

It’s a good thing the coin landed on tails because if it landed on heads, it would be PROOF the models are predictive and a good representation of the climate system. Since they fell on their faces so completely, it will only be hours before the modelers issue an apology…. Oh yea.
If the warming had accelerated, the artic had melted and the troposphere had caught on fire, the warmies would be masturbating with baseball bats but since it didn’t, it still proves AGW.

September 15, 2011 1:20 pm

Gore is a nasty piece of work – remember how his followers tried to paint his old mentor Roger Revelle as being mentally ill after he changed his mind on the causes of climate change? Your blog is vital for laypeople who want an intelligent way to debunk the rubbish cooked up by Gore and his fellow-travellers – keep up the good work!

September 15, 2011 1:20 pm

I wonder if their models can predict which finger I’m holding up.

September 15, 2011 1:35 pm

Joe Daniels says:
September 15, 2011 at 1:20 pm
Gore is a nasty piece of work – remember how his followers tried to paint his old mentor Roger Revelle as being mentally ill after he changed his mind on the causes of climate change?
Not Just Al Gore, I’m having an interesting discussion with an influential blogger and avid supporter of Skep Science on another blog who genuinely believes that many skeptics must be Sociopaths due to their views on climate change. The fact he has never met these people or carried out any diagnostic tests does not seem to worry him in using such labels. In some ways it encapsulates the philosophy of the Climate change Taliban.

Theo Goodwin
September 15, 2011 1:44 pm

Gareth Phillips says:
September 15, 2011 at 1:35 pm
“Not Just Al Gore, I’m having an interesting discussion with an influential blogger and avid supporter of Skep Science on another blog who genuinely believes that many skeptics must be Sociopaths due to their views on climate change.”
Each and every Warmista is a pathological narcissist with his head firmly buried in the sand of his own backside. Not one of them dare venture outside his computer model. Yes, I am serious and do believe what I wrote.

September 15, 2011 1:46 pm

Check the ‘Time On Site” and “Bounce %”
Tune in, turn off and drop out.

September 15, 2011 1:48 pm
September 15, 2011 1:50 pm

Visitors by Country for Climaterealityproject.org
Country – Percent of Visitors
United States 62.4%
India 2.8%
France 2.6%
Spain 2.5%
Canada 2.3%
United Kingdom 1.8%
Germany 1.5%
OTHER 24.0%

Dermot O'Logical
September 15, 2011 1:58 pm

Doesn’t one season of drought count as weather ?

Stephen Wilde
September 15, 2011 2:15 pm

The Horn of Africa gets drier when the Sahara moves South (a cooling globe) and wetter when the Sahara moves North (a warming globe).
Simple. Any model that fails to anticipate latitudinal shifts in the global air circulation systems is worthless. That means all of them at present.

September 15, 2011 2:34 pm

Drought is natural, famine is man-made.
Famine happens when the carrying capacity of the land is exceeded by the population. We, from the west, have actually exacerbated the situation in East Africa by providing aid. We have allowed the population to exceed the carrying capacity of the land. We have made this problem by our own misguided actions. The Horn of Africa has never been able to support the level of population that we have brought about by our ill-informed aid efforts.
Now that the amount of aid is declining, the mortality rate is rising.
Once again, the west has interfered and simply worsened the problem.

September 15, 2011 2:43 pm

It’s a fact that some quick internet research will educate anyone to the fact that the debate on AGW is not over. The science is not ”settled” (whatever that means) All there is for “evidence” of AGW is output from computer models. Climate scientists call this stuff “data”.
If one is over fifty, say, he probably is less likely than a youngster to trust anything computer generated. Let alone doomsday, “The end is near“, crapola. When I was younger I saw people wearing sandwich board signs prophesying doomsday. They were doing the same thing AlGore does today only he uses powerpoint instead of the sandwich board. Same thing though.
The Man-Made Global Warming scam becomes evident when one looks at the narrative that spews from the alarmists. Only evil and suffering can come from a warmer Earth.
Why can’t it be : “Congratulations children, The Energy sources that fuel our economies and our prosperity, give us long life and comfort, these fossil fuels will also cause our planet to warm gently, about 4 degrees over the next century. What luck!
With the warmth and extra CO2 for plant life, millions of acres of tundra will become forests. Millions of acres of frozen steppe will become arable. Starvation will end. Prosperity will reach even the poorest people. We must keep searching for and burning oil and coal so we can improve our climate and prosper. Humanity will become wealthy. With this wealth we can preserve habitat for animals, protect the rain forest. We will clean the oceans and the land. Our future is bright. We are entering the age of abundance. “
The Earth is not warming of late though. Too bad.

Interstellar Bill
September 15, 2011 2:58 pm

I’m watching Gore’s Warmista-Fest right now (2:47PDT)
The long-discredited hockey stick graph is breathlessly resurrected as being
“from four independent climate agencies.” (I kid you not.)
The most nauseating is the “Science Sermon”, bandying such terms as
“painstaking”, “data”, “observations”, “the climate record”, “consensus”, “deniers”.
At least they were smart enough to have photogenic announcers,
with Gore voice-only during the promos,
his decrepit mug sequestered in a various alarmist-panel line-ups.
They have the nerve to portray floods in Australia and on the Missouri & Mississippi
as due to the satanic CO2, when it was their own accolytes mismanaging the dams!
I have yet to hear the horrid phrases “cosmic rays”, “albedo”, or “cloud-cover”,
to say nothing of “instrumental error”, “urban heating”, “blocking events”, “record cold”,
or worst of all “natural variability”.

Dave Wendt
September 15, 2011 5:42 pm

Though I usually agree with most of your posts but the UCL Drought Monitor page seems to show the drought in the Horn of Africa moderating significantly on their shorter time scale maps i e 1 month and 3 month
I took the above link after switching to the 1 month scale but when I’ve tried this in the past the link sometimes defaults to the main setting. If this happens again you’ll need to do the switch to see what I’m talking about.

Dave Wendt
September 15, 2011 5:46 pm

Whoops that was TinyURL’s preview link

September 16, 2011 3:10 pm

So the 22 computer model posted in the NSF site according to you are just crap because you say so of because there is drought in the horn of Africa. Al Gore didn’t invented that , Al Gore didn’t predicted that. Those are simply models, not facts, when we hear 80% of rain chance is based on a model. I have news for you there is a 20% of chance that it will not rain. Those are approximations, estimates which are expected to be less accurate when done over a long period of time into the future , so if the wetter horn of Africa didn’t started exactly in 2009 doesn’t mean is crap, don’t be silly. When I read the ignorance of many that posted in this place (that I found by chance and that of the Ecotretas) is just amazing. I am a scientist thought not a climate scientist. I know how science works , yes many time predictions do not get it right, but if anybody denies that Climate change is taking place as we speak is just an idiot. I could accept the question on how much man made activities influence climate change, but not to deny that climate change is a ‘fact’. Please for those that are not scientist let the scientist do the analyses and predictions and don’t let bloggers and Glenn Becks of the world to dictate which way to go because yesterday we had snow. If it were for people like you we wouldn’t have even cured smallpox or polio by now. Don’t play scientist if you aren’t one.

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