Katia, after dropping into tropical storm speeds has regained hurricane strength and has rapidly grown to a Category 4 hurricane. Fortunately, it appears it will miss the USA east coast. Here’s the latest tracks and bulletins:
Track: 
Tracking map in high definition (updates every 3-4 hours, click to enlarge)
Track map in HiDef – click to enlarge:
Model:
The Models have it following a similar track to Irene towards the coast, but more eastward, with a sharp right turn:
ECMWF 10-day Maximum wind speed swath map
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Bulletins
BULLETIN HURRICANE KATIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 800 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011 ...KATIA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 68.4W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF KATIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
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It would be ironic if Hurricane Katia travels over Iceland’s Katla volcano. 🙂
The weather outlook website at
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx
has a projection for where it will be on Monday 12th September. Hopefully it doesn’t cause a tidal surge down the east coast of England.
Per NHC, TD 14 (still not a named storm, and not expected to strengthen for a bit), is on a track that overruns Irene’s birthplace and then follows her track for a while.
Per Ryan’s ECMWF plot, note it expects another GoM storm with landfall near New Orleans.
If this keeps up we’ll have people speculating that the NHC is not naming storms to make their 2011 forecast work out. 🙂
I have made a mistake in my last post. It is another depression that will be near the UK on 12th September
The remnants of TS Lee interacting w/the stationary cold-front deposited rather gently nearly 5 inches of rain in western MD over several days.
An ideal drought-buster w/hardly any runoff.
Calm down, everone. Katia is an Atlantic storms whcih will have minimal effect on the US East Coast. It’s not going to “bust through”. How close the storm that forms out of 14 gets to the East Coast will depend on the path of the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. As for that sytem in the GOM, until it gets its act together it is impossible to know if it will move west into Mexico, or north towards the US Gulf Coast. If it moves north, it will in all liklihood entrain dry air from Texas (take a look at the GOM water vapor loop here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html) and remain weak, like Lee. A northward move would also keep the storm that develops from 14 far from the East Coast. Even if the Gulf Storm stays south, I think chances are best that the 14 storm stays offshore as well.
By the way, North atlantic ACE is about 27% above normal right now. Naming is way above normal. That being said, 8 of the 12 named systems have ACE of less than 2 each. Not sure some of those deserved names.
Per NHC, TD 14 is promoted to TS Maria:
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011
CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS AND A RECENT ONE WITH STRONGER WINDS…THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS.
…
MARIA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF
THE TRACK MODELS…WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT…KEEP MARIA ON
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
ONCE MARIA REACHES THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3
DAYS…THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
WHICH IS BOUNDED BY THE GFS ON THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF ON THE
SOUTH.
The “system” in the GoM is still undeveloped:
THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
21N93W AT 07/0900 UTC AND REMAINS AT THE TAIL END OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER
S MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-96W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.
This may be a Michael Fish non hurricane if it recurves out to the UK!
God bless Katia and all who turn turtle on her 😀
Andy
Would Katia have made Cat. 4 if not for satelites?
The 1600 CDT update has the GoM storm now Tropical Storm Nate:
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
RIGS…ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA…SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED…WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT…THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.
NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER…THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER…IF AT ALL…IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.
…
I think the NHC often underestimates the effects of dry air, especially with stronger storms.
I recommend we collect enough money to send the NHC a keyboard capable of lowercase letters as well. Strange they can’t afford one yet.
omnologos, if it doesn’t look like a telex then its not important.