Well it seems the Gulf coast is in for a wet and windy weekend, no joy though for Texas and rain. Katia has regained hurricane strength. Here’s the latest tracks and bulletins:
Track:
Tracking map in high definition (updates every 3-4 hours, click to enlarge)
Track map in HiDef – click to enlarge:
Model:
The Models have it following a similar track to Irene towards the coast, but more eastward, with a sharp right turn:
ECMWF 10-day Maximum wind speed swath map
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Bulletins
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 91.5W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
Bulletin:
BULLETIN HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2011 ...KATIA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 52.4W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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Ric,
We are experiencing annual weather events, nothing more. It should be remembered that the peak of hurricane season occurs on Septembr 10th every year. There is nothing unusual happening this year. It’s just routine hurricane season. Happens every year the same, more or less. Best to relax and enjoy the show.
@Twiggy says:
September 2, 2011 at 1:41 pm
From the reports, we got as much as VT did. The only difference was we were very dry, so the ground soaked it all up. Virtually no flooding, even though we got about 6″ of rain. Just a lot of wind damage (80% without power – the last ones connected just yesterday).