Well it seems the Gulf coast is in for a wet and windy weekend, no joy though for Texas and rain. Katia has regained hurricane strength. Here’s the latest tracks and bulletins:
Track:
Tracking map in high definition (updates every 3-4 hours, click to enlarge)
Track map in HiDef – click to enlarge:
Model:
The Models have it following a similar track to Irene towards the coast, but more eastward, with a sharp right turn:
ECMWF 10-day Maximum wind speed swath map
Widget:
Got a blog or website? Add our hurricane widget to your sidebar, which will update every 30 minutes. Free alerting.
Code for this widget below: (copy/paste into notepad, then copy/paste that into your blog HTML editor to preserve the code character formatting)
<a href=”http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/tropical-cyclone/”><img src=”http://wcw.intelliweather.net/imagery/wcw/wcw_sat_atlhurr_175x225.gif” alt=”Hurricane Widget” width=”175″ height=”225″ /></a>
Bulletins
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 91.5W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
Bulletin:
BULLETIN HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2011 ...KATIA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 52.4W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
More…plus signup for free hurricane bulletins.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/tropical-cyclone/
Wow. Tropical storm Lee might yield some rain for western MD!
Where I’m at (well inland) it’s more likely to get rain from a Gulf of Mexico storm than an Atlantic one.
So it looks like this time is there not only a discrepancy in what is being reported for wind speed by the NOAA and what is actually happening but the rain forecast looks to be overblown too.
Whatever the problem is at the they have the responsibility of correcting it posthaste. There could come a storm that really is a powerful one and folks might not believe them because of this poor track record.
Katia clinging onto hurricane status by the fingernails, seemingly struggling with shear and dry air to the south. Strong convection is continuous from the centre though, so even if it’s downgraded soon I’d expect the system to persist strongly enough to see this through and restrengthen at some point, though the Cat 4/5 system potential doesn’t seem to be there anymore.
An Irene path continues to look unlikely, but Maine and Nova Scotia may feel something from her.
TS/STS Lee is a mess, but a dangerous mess. Winds aren’t going to be particularly damaging in the main, but the rainfall from such a slow-moving bugger could cause really bad flooding for several days throughout the southern and eastern states. Seems that parts of LA have already have 7in of the stuff, and there’s a lot more to come.
The main centre of Lee appears to have come onshore now around Marsh Island from the satellite views, but given the nature of the system I don’t suppose this’ll induce much weakening for a good while. Once it merges with the cold front there could be some renewed vigour too – I’m sure the good people of that part of the world know the hazards when such warm moist GoM air collides with colder stuff from the west…
The long-range GFS forecast shows another strong TS developing in a couple of weeks and heading somewhere near the Yucutan Channel from the central Caribbean. Not the strength or the early genesis, but perhaps a similar path to Ivan in 2004. One worth bearing in mind nearer the time, particularly for those areas getting drenched by Lee in the next few days.
Look at the NHC, 11 am, Sat. Sept. 3 “Discussion” report on hurricane Katia. It says, “Based on the current forecast and recent NHC intensity errors…”. The overall discussion section is also beefed up and more uncertainty elements are presented. A better product, I think, than reporting on Irene. Hmmm.. Is NHC reading this blog?
Leave our TS alone! Louisiana needs this.
Interesting style, post-Irene …
Not so much with Lee, which appears to be one huge mass of thunderstorms dumping heaps of water. Katia, on the other hand, is being treated on a much lower key … describing it as “barely a hurricane”. Of course, it could also be due to the fact that most models have it staying out to sea.
what are the chances of the 2 low pressures joining in a few days?
Whatever is going on with the ECMWF forecast? It has Katia reaching maximum size and strength (>100 knots) off Newfoundland and persisting as a hurricane into Denmark Sound just shy of the Arctic Circle where water temperatures are around zero.
An earlier article talks about the heat loss in a part of the Atlantic due to Irene:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/29/irene-takes-a-bite-out-of-ocean-heat/#more-46144
Is it possible that if Katia crosses this part, it will lose some of its strength?
“The Models have it following a similar track to Irene towards the coast, but more eastward, with a sharp right turn:”
Good models or bad models? Doesn’t matter, I predict Katia will stop and go backwards towards Africa.
otter17
Good models or bad models?
I dated a bad model for a few months. ;^)
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
September 3, 2011 at 1:45 pm
otter17
Good models or bad models?
I dated a bad model for a few months. ;^)
________________
You want her back? Might be the same one I had. Totally unpredictable and usually inaccurate. Will likely be obsolete soon. 🙂
Lee is a pussycat so far. It’s been a steady moderate rainfall with 20-30 mph winds here, but very little in the way of violent squalls. It should get rougher tonight as the center passes overhead, but we’ve seen real hurricanes here, so no one is too concerned.
I remember that the 10 day forecast had Katia turning north-east and sprinting toward Newfoundland ahead of what had become TS Lee. The latest position forecasts have Lee moving to the NE before Katia begins to turn NE. I wonder if Lee is going to do a blocking run to the NE and thereby pull Katia closer to the east coast?
Not predicting this, just noting how the timing of the storms could lead to a problem. Your thoughts on this?
We need more computer models, they’re an enhanced form of reality!
http://failblog.org/2011/09/03/epic-fail-photos-hurricane-path-fail/
From the NHC:
Just because there was a wind GUST of 83 mph, they upgrade Katia back to a hurricane? Because a sustained wind speed of 69 mph certainly isn’t a hurricane. Or do they guess that at a height of 10 m the wind speed would be greater than 69 mph?
Bennett, you’re right about the potential of Lee to pull Katia closer to the States. Still a lot of uncertainty about the track at this stage. Just as importantly, Katia has speedily got her act together and is now up to Cat 2 at 100mph. The eye can now be seen and the central pressure has dropped arond 20mb in the last several hours.
Come this time next week onwards, eyes will turn to the Caribbean and the Gulf.
Yesterday I observed that NHC’s 11 am, Sat. Sept 3 “Discussion” report on Hurricane Katia seemed more comprehensive and explanatory. That was then. A day later, the 11 am report, Sun Sept 4 “Discussion” (different NHC analyist) is an excellent example of their usual, poorly written, cryptic gibberish that reads little better than a description of randomly scattered chicken bones. An 8 th grade science student could exceed this effort. So much for hoping the bureaucracy can perform self-improvement. Just wishful thinking.
Thanks Keith. I just noticed the development of the eye but the warnings above do not yet reflect the upgrade to cat2. It will be interesting to watch the interplay of these storms in the days ahead.
Here Katia, Katia, Katia, good storm, nice storm. Here Katia, Katia, Katia, come on to Texas, please. Just sail up here and give us a nice soaking rain, please.
As of 8:00 EST Sunday it looks like Katia is already headed in a more northward track than the projections have it. Even though it is entering a warmer patch of water and may strengthen, I see no reason why it would turn more westerly from this point onwards. It may graze Maine, but I doubt it will impact the eastern seaboard.
The remnants of TS Lee do look to drop a lot of rain from the gulf to Quebec and beyond. This is not good as VT needs a respite.
“…but I doubt it will impact the eastern seaboard.”
I may regret that comment.
In other news, there is more flash flooding in southern VT from rain ahead of the arrival here of TS Lee.
The strongest winds we have gotten from Lee were today.
25-30 from the NW. It’s very comfortable and cool! We expect cool temperatures for the rest of the week, and have had some drought relief, so overall this storm was a plus for this area.
And, almost unnoticed, Katia becomes the first major hurricane of the 2011 season.
Amazing how much apathy a hurricane can generate when it poses no threat to land (:-
Katia is now Cat 4 in discussion #32:
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KATIA HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE WARMED DURING THE EVENING HOURS…DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 6.0/115 KT AT 0000 UTC. DESPITE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE APPEARANCE OF THE EYE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO…ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE STILL 6.2/122 KT…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT…MAKING KATIA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.