This post has been combined into a new one for Katia and Lee here
Also I have our new track projection map online now, that covers all the way out to the Cape Verde Islands where these storm systems form. See below the bulletin.
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011 ...KATIA CONTINUES OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 50.6W ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
Track map in HiDef – click to enlarge:
More imagery on WUWT’s tropical cyclone page
So far, model projections don’t say for certain that we’ll see a US landfall, it may turn north before reaching any US coastline. Time will tell.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
DAVID,
I was specifically addressing those in the big city high rises who don’t truly suffer weather phenomenon. They may experience it walking from the cab to the door, or down the street for lunch. In most major cities, the utilities are installed underground, therefore utility outages are a rare event.
We were out two weeks after Hurricane Rita, water included as we operate on a water well. We’ve had weeklong or more outages during and after ice storms, and tornadoes. The tornadoes of late may put us out for a week as well.
A “real winter” in Louisiana means we get snow that sticks to the ground. I don’t expect it to compare to the winter climate of even north Arkansas. When winter precip hits the ground in La. it’s major because the folks here may go 20 years without having to drive on ice or snow and it becomes utter chaos.
In reality, I’ll prefer the storms or water, ice, or wind to what we are currently experiencing. That is the slow, agonizing, starvation of drought. We are in our second year of drought and hardwood trees are beginning to die. Even underbrush generally regarded as “undead” such as youpon and ironwood (bois d’ arc) is yellowing and browning. Homeowners private water wells are failing and in many areas this is the only option for drinking water. Many private ponds are going dry, forcing small farmers and ranchers to move or sell their livestock. There has not been a decent hay crop for a year and a half. We are shipping in hay at exorbitant cost. Dry spells are one thing, but another year of “little girl” is going to be a real killer.
I’ll trade you this drought for 5 feet of snow and your little tropical storm. We’re so dry right now, it’ll run off for a while simply due to the moisture differential and surface tension of the water, but shortly we’d soak in every inch of what y’all saw.
I’ve always read “baited breath” as a joke or intentional play on the proper “bated breath” when written by someone I figure should or would know the correct form. I personally use “baited (with rotten shrimp)” or some other smelly piscadorean lure when playing on the statement.
(WARNING: DRAMATIC GENERALIZATION) In today’s world though, I think anyone under about 35 wouldn’t know the correct form simply due to poor schooling.
An earlier post showed a region of cold SSTs in the path of Irene that was produced by vertical mixing with deeper layers. Does that region of colder water have the ability to inhibit storms like Katia that may trace a path similar to Irene? How long do the unusually cool SSTs in the wake of a hurricane typically last?
I just played the spirals of Irene reversely when there suddenly was a demonic voice calling
“AL! AL GORE! I’LL COME BACK TO EXACT YOUR SOUL!”
I hope it regards Katia…
@ur momisugly John F. Hultquist
Good stuff, good Sir! I appreciated the illumination, and the poem was fun. Like others have implied, when I read “baited breath” I think of what mine must smell like after I’ve been eating sardines.
Tim Ball
Coast To Coast AM – 29.8.2011 – 1/4 – Climate & Hurricane Irene
http://youtu.be/6p2iFRIa-mI
Coast To Coast AM – 29.8.2011 – 2/4 – Climate & Hurricane Irene
http://youtu.be/BvAbkRUZc3o
posted on August 31, 2011 by Anthony Watts
“It won’t be long now.”
I realize you wear many hats but never knew you were also a Mohel.
Looking very likely at this stage that Katia will be a fish storm. All eyes now turn to the Gulf of Mexico with Invest 93L forecast by some models to become TS Lee by the end of the weekend.
GFS at 92 hours has the system sitting pretty much over New Orleans, probably at close to hurricane strength, and loitering there for qsome time.
Discussion on that system can be found at:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111727&sid=50befce4002d87bba6bbb9db2cad77d7&start=60
Interesting article about “recurving”, describing why hurricanes start off in a westerly direction, gradually being pulled more northerly, and then to the east, basically forming a “C”: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2011/08/katia-hurricane-recurving.html
“Irene followed that same trajectory, but it did the C move as it headed up the East Coast. Katia could make its inevitable C entirely over water.
That happens all the time, Masters said. “More than half of all the Atlantic hurricanes never trouble anybody,” he said.”
We’re expecting a tropical storm this weekend in South Louisiana, possibly 50+mph, so I’m stoked….on high ground of course.
“”””” john says:
August 31, 2011 at 7:11 am
Hurricane Irene could be among costliest storms
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/08/31/Irene-could-be-among-costliest-storms/UPI-34011314768992/
Hurricane Irene likely will be among the costliest catastrophes in U.S. history, “””””
Well let’s give credit where it is due. The “catastrophe” was building all that junk right along the coast in the first place. The hurricanes come along there every year; always have; always will.
Same thing as New Orleans, and Katrina. You build a city below sea level, and then put a big lake to hold even more water on the other side of it, and it will get flooded. And if you raise the height of the dikes (swimming pool walls) then the next one will just flood everything deeper. The solution is to stop building (and rebuilding) underwater cities.
I have two things.
1) For some reason, something here has change and when I post a letter my screen jumps to the top of the article. When I scroll back down I can not see my message “awaiting moderation” like I did up until this week. It does get posted later, but this is weird. I am using a different (work) computer this week and perhaps that is the root cause.
2) If this hurricane hits the USA anyplace, will I see a single ground station that shows sustained winds anyplace near what NOAA says the cane’s wind-speed is? Say within 10 mph? Any chance?
Hi Dave,
I’ve been looking at 93L since Dr Maue put up the ECMWF and GFS forecast maps on the earlier 92L/Jose/Katia post. Initially, ECMWF had a low developing off the Louisiana coast and then heading to the Texas/Mexico border before dissipating inland, while GFS had it getting near Texas before looping round to head for New Orleans with 115mph winds.
The models seem to have switched sides now, with GFS showing 93L/Lee teasing the central Louisiana coast before heading for the Rio Grande as around a Cat 2, while ECMWF has it meandering in the Gulf before running into central and eastern Louisiana as a biggie next Thurs/Fri.
Basically, once the upper winds abate and allow 93L to develop, steering is so weak that it could end up anywhere. With any luck it’ll move so slowly that cold water upwelling will limit its development so that wherever it does eventually end up, it will do so without packing winds in the triple digits.
Texans must be praying for TS Lee.
Dear potential TS Lee, please keep moving NW. My folks in SW LA need some rain. Its bone dry there….
Katia looks to be too far north to ever approach the US coast line.
George E. Smith says:
So, we abandon the east coast? We get the potential of a storm or 2 every year. It doesn’t actually happen that often. And no east coast city is as vulnerable as New Orleans.
George E. Smith says:
September 1, 2011 at 1:53 am
Well let’s give credit where it is due. The “catastrophe” was building all that junk right along the coast in the first place. The hurricanes come along there every year; always have; always will.
Except that in this case much, if not most of the flooding was inland, far away from the coast, and was due to some extraordinarily high rainfall taking out bridges, damaging roads, etc.
“In today’s world though, I think anyone under about 35 wouldn’t know the correct form simply due to poor schooling.”
We could nip that in the butt with a little more reading riting and rithmatic in schools!
Looks like Katia has decided to take some time off and have a few mojitos instead of remaining a hurricane for the time being anyway
Katia back down to a TS, due to increasing shear and some dry air entrainment. It’s still forecast to become a major, but we’ll have to see how persistent the effect of the upper low is in imparting shear on her. That low may become a tropical cyclone itself, not only imparting more shear but dragging Katia further west. Double-edged sword for the east coast.
Looking at GFS and ECMWF latest runs, they both have Katia getting much closer to the States than previous runs. ECMWF has a hairpin turn being performed to avoid Florida and Georgia, but GFS gets very close to the Outer Banks again before heading off and becoming a real beast around Greenland and Iceland. Could prompt a late dip in Arctic ice if it plays out, but it’s far too uncertain a picture at present.
These ladies are being unpredictable of late, eh?
And she’s back up another 5 knots…
Interesting stuff from ECMWF and GFS now. Both have the Azores high pushing Katia further west, getting into a standoff with Florida and the Bahamas before backing down and running past NS and Newfoundland into the high Atlantic. The Azores high seems to be getting displaced further north at this time, giving any other Cape Verde TCs in the near future more space to breach any weaknesses, recurve and avoid western Atlantic landfall.
Putative Lee, meanwhile, is scratching his backside in the Gulf, wondering where exactly to dump his vast amounts of moisture. Wherever it is will, due to the slow motion, cop a prolonged drenching. Y’all get the sandbags in down there, OK?
I am in the UK so have very little understanding of hurricanes and need some help.
The track above predicts that Katia will turn to a westerly direction between Tues and Weds at present the last three advisory notes have the storm turning north.
Will the predicted track be based on the actual atmospheric conditions that exist to today or on previous experience and what is the expected success rate of this type of projection?
TIA
Also, 94L is looking to me very much like a tilted, sheared TC already, although the experts aren’t calling it as such yet. Might nick the Lee moniker from TD13 to keep the boys as pretty harmless this season, leaving all the nasty stuff to the girls.
“Putative Lee, meanwhile, is scratching his backside in the Gulf”
The more it sits in one spot, stirring the water and blocking insolation, the less likely intensification becomes. Not science but an observation that they usually strengthen when they are on the move, over unspoiled warm water.
Dave Worley says:
September 2, 2011 at 10:24 am
“Putative Lee, meanwhile, is scratching his backside in the Gulf”
The more it sits in one spot, stirring the water and blocking insolation, the less likely intensification becomes. Not science but an observation that they usually strengthen when they are on the move, over unspoiled warm water.
You do yourself a disservice. As you suggest, if they’re sat over the same patch of water, or perform a cyclonic loop and recross previously-traversed water, they’ll draw up cooler water from deeper down, stalling evaporation and convection, and starving the system of its fuel. Still plenty of moisture aloft in Lee, but the slow movement may stop the winds from getting up too high with any luck.