At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
There’s a storm in the internet as to how strong the winds currently are. Are the gusts only hurricane strength? Or are they sustained? Is it a tropical storm now? Or a hurricane?
It looks like there are not hurricane winds at the moment.
trbixler says: “What I find is information about Obama at the Obama crisis center.”
Obama is the bigger threat to the US.
John Coleman,
Thank you. I appreciate your comment. 🙂
Can someone explain why the Maximum predicted wind velocity at Barnegat Light, which is right on the shore of a NJ barrer island, is 50 MPH according to weather underground.
What am I missing?
Thanks
Another question.
Looking at the NWS track Anthony provided, it is difficult to see the track between Va, NJ, and NYC. It is busy with all kinds of overlayed information and is so small a map scale that one cannot get a very precise picture of the present location relative to land.
I’m not complaining about WUWT, I am gratefull for Anthony’s efforts. I just wonder if this is the best NOAA can provide. Is this intentional? Am I missing something?
BTW, I sat through a Hurricane in Tampico Mexico in the late 60’s and the only info we could get was via ham radio that we plotted, so we have come a long way.
Thanks
Anthony
The boy who cried wolf…blah, blah, blah. I prefer to think of it in terms of a Russian Roulette analogy. Someone could urge you not to play as it’s very dangerous. You can ignore them and probably be safe…most of the time. If the officials responsible for public safety instruct you to evacuate and you decide to stay and ride out whatever happens, you’ll probably be OK…most of the time…but not EVERY time.
Oh great … now they tell us …
Which means that the worst of the storm has kept out to sea … and that the people on the eastern end of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island will get what no one else has yet experienced from this storm. Hope those people get the word, after hearing how the storm’s been hyped so far, they may let their guard down.
So, …
When a government “official body” panics from group think and “what if” and “precautionary principles” …..
And requires – at the point of their guns – that 4 million people to leave their homes.
but they can’t – because the roads are blocked, the bridges plugged, the interstates full, the back roads isolated and not cut-through……….Who is responsible when these innocents are killed because they are trapped,trying to evacuate? Who is wiser? The ones who listened to “authority” ? Or the ones who stayed in shelter?
Are there really “government” agencies you blindly trust with your family’s life today?
Leon,
Thanks, that explains the wind conditions and predictions I found on weatherunderground.
I have a boat in the water on the mainland side of the Barnegat bay and have been trying to find out when it is going to sink!! My hopes are raised by your post. This was never revealed by several hours of watching TV including the weather channel.
RACookPE1978:
Folks with lots of experience are laughing at NY mayor Bloomberg: click
RACookPE1978 says:
August 27, 2011 at 10:04 pm
Your comment is less about the weather and more about some fuzzy political ideology.
[*****], everyone has one, but not everyone needs to use it as an excuse to post non-science, on a science oriented blog.
Grow up.
Obama takes charge at hurricane command center
“US President Barack Obama warned the US east coast was in for a “long 72 hours” as he led his government’s response to Hurricane Irene at a disaster command center in Washington.”
Ugh…. Our Dear Leader has ‘taken charge’ at the hurricane command center. Perhaps his teleprompter has commanded the hurricane winds to drop down to 30 mph, from the ‘horrifying’ 65mph gusts that Irene had been generating from all of that anthropogenic warming. Oh, the humanity!
I’ll sleep so much more soundly tonight, knowing Our Dear leader is in the hurricane command center, commanding that pesky hurricane. You can rest easy tonight America……. the community activist Barack Obama and the clown college graduate Joe Biden are ‘on the job’!
Just for clarification on my earlier comment, the following is from the NHC’s 11PM advisory:
Now … will any of the media pick up on this small but critical little bit? Folks on Long Island might like to know … and Connecticut … and Rhode Island.
Caleb says:
August 27, 2011 at 8:14 pm
RE: TrueNorthist says:
August 27, 2011 at 6:49 pm
“I just saw a report from some jerk standing in the surf, doing his best to look as though he was braving the teeth of the storm. Near the end of the shot a elderly woman strolled easily by, looking at him as though he were some kind of fool…”
Don’t you just hate it when that happens?
We had similar in Oz with the reporter in a canoe explaining the flood when someone in gumboots walked past the camera showing the water level was around 3 to 4 inches.
.
Have any wind farms been zapped?
So much interest. I remember one of the hurricanes a few years ago when I was in Boston. The media were full of reports how it spectacularly hit New England, and so on. Meanwhile, in Boston, all that I could observe was an ordinary gentle rain and moderate winds.
It’s often the case that people learn about globally “sensational events” taking place near their homes from the media. If they were just watching from the window, they wouldn’t notice that something “sensational” is going on at all.
970 mb?? In the UK that is a winter storm. Lowest I have seen over the UK was 953 mb, but we did not call it a hurricane or evacuate Kent.
.
What’s with some of these “reporters” saying that tornadoes are expected along the storm track?
Is that even possible?
REPLY: Very, and common with hurricanes. Lots of vorticity gets transferred to the mesocyclones that form in rain bands. – Anthony
I was working on an oil exploration rig in Oman a few years ago when a cyclone was predicted to make landfall near the capital, Muscat. All the local rig crew demanded to be sent home to be with their families and the rig was on downtime – something that wouldn’t happen in most places. A Scottish guy who lived in Muscat, arrived at the rig a few days later and described it as: “a wet day in Aberdeen”.
And now on CNN they are reporting that a Nuclear plant has shut down because a sheet of aluminum bounced off the reactor building. Fukushima II ?
Also a reporter in Atlantic City is pointing at a puddle on the road while saying flooding has started.
The MSM is insane.
Ah, the good ‘ol New York Times could not pass up the opportunity to blame this on AGW:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/us/28climate.html?_r=1&hp
Can someone please help me?
Why are 300,000 people being evacuated for a 75mph storm?
What am I missing?
I don’t understand how a storm of this magnitude can bring a sea-surge large enough to cause any major damage or threaten the life of anyone that isn’t already an idiot?
I’ve been seeing CNN in the last minutes…
How more stupid can it get? Even reporters are starting to laugh at this…
Someone has to grab this for further laugh!
I haven’t seen any real evidence of the hurricane force winds. Hell, the reminants of Hurricane Ike had stronger winds when it made it inland to St. Louis, MO. It took out two large trees in my yard and put a hole in my roof.
Update from Penacook NH:
OBS Penacook NH 280720 R 69F/68F ENE@1G13 29.52″ R:0.65
Pressure fall started at 0000, temperature rise started at 0200, wind picking up since 0600.
Looks like a tropical cyclone is coming this way. 🙂
Current data for Penacook, NH on Aug 28 at 0720:
Temperature 68.8F, today’s high 69.4F at 0000, low 66.1F at 0335
Humidity 97%, therefore:
Dew point 67.9F
Barometer 29.516″, Falling rapidly
Today’s rain 0.65″
Storm total 0.79″
Monthly total 3.24″
Current rain rate 0.13″/hr
Sunrise at 0606, sunset at 1929
Yesterday’s high 83F at 1357, low 59F at 0557
At 0741, storm total is 0.86″