At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
Well, dang it, I guess the cannibalism thing was a bit premature. Umm, so, to the surviving neighbours: I am so very sorry.
The joy of cable tv. Gotta have hype. Do yourselves all a favor – take TWC off your cable/satelite menus. They live to hype and have been a major AGW advocate. They are political channel masquerading as a weather one. This has spilled over to your local news weathercasts. Damage, destruction and death are what drive ratings. Ignore it.
Most people here no where to check, the websites that work, etc. This includes the NWS who has lots of nice summary information. Tell your friends to avoid the TV stuff – it is almost worthless. That is who hyped this thing.
This of course forces local govts to react to a degree more than they might like – for instance the evacs in NY. Let’s keep in mind that the emergency personnel are just trying to the job the best they can, dealing with a storm that still has variation and could cause more or less damage than we currently think. The people they report to have to face elections. Ask a former Chicago mayor about how a failure to deal with a large snow cost him an election.
I should check my spelling more carefully – “know” not “no”.
simple FACT, the media has HYPED this storm for DAYS….right NOW it was supposed to be a powerful cat 3 gaining power…reality is a weakening cat 1….and the media is STILL trying to HYPE it.
Wow, 33mph winds at Buxton, NC landfal. I can barely play golf in that.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/08/27/noaas-phony-hurricane-coming-on-shore-with-33-mph-winds/
Tim Bromige says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:24 pm
At least Canadian dollars are still worth something.
savethesharks: “Manhattan is, by FAR, the most densely populated island on the planet.”
By how far, specifically? How did you arrive at this conclusion?
Apparently this wiki needs updating: …islands by population density…
As a “landlubber”, wish these forecasts would use “mph” instead of “knots” for wind speed (I bet most people don’t know how these compare). Also wish they would use “inches” instead of “millibars” for pressure (from my experience, most home barometers use “inches”).
We don’t get too many hurricanes here in Colorado, although about 15 years ago, we had the remnant of a Pacific tropical system come through this way, and it rained for two days straight.
Try to find a legitimate weather station with sustained wind speed reports anywhere near the forecast values.
Here is the strongest so far (58 knots):
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=clkn7
Obama needed this to be a big one…
We’ll get the actual windspeed data very soon as Irene crosses eastern NC. There should be many sites that can accurately measure windspeed and duration there as well as other land sites on up the coast. NHC’s guestimate process of airplane fly-through can then be compared with actual measurements. NHC’s 11 am, Sat. Aug. 27 forecast update should have included actual windspeed data, but did not. Instead it again used the generic fly-through process to make a Cat. 1 conclusion. If NHC didn’t have access to actual measurements for the 11 am report, it should have.The storm center had been present for several hours by then. In the future, more attention should be paid to NHC’s entire approach to hurricane forecasting following facts from storm impacts after this event. It may be that NHC needs more tools and an entirely new approach to it’s 6 hour forecast intervals, and brief, cryptic, one page conclusory ‘discussion’ statements which should contain much more technical analysis. NHC’s ‘discussion’ process appears woefully outdated. It should be comprehensive and compiled by many experts, not the apparently one signatory analyst historically relied upon by NHC staff.
Slightly off topic but apropos the current Hurricane hyping, or not. Everyone pooh-pooed the “only” 5.8 earthquaker with epicenter in Mineral, VA. I live 31 miles from there and although it hasn’t received much attention in the national media it did a great deal of damage around here. The Louisa County high school and an elementary school both sustained very serious damage and the HS will not be usable for the entire school year. The elementary school may have to be condemned. The damage to the HS is more than 7m dollars which these rural areas can ill afford.
Caleb says:
August 27, 2011 at 3:17 am
“This is just a practice run for the hurricane coming September 10.”
Do you work for the media?
Where are the hurricane winds?
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=34.24169922&lon=-77.94360352&zoom=8&pin=Wilmington%2c%20NC
Well. Finally, Obama has some shovel-ready jobs. All up and down the East Coast.
In the release I cited (a few posts above) I read the NHC saying that they estimated the landfall speed based on Doppler radar. Maybe the offshore estimates were by plane.
PS: Here’s what the NHC said, in Bulletin 28A:
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gacooke said:
August 26, 2011 at 2:25 pm
I have to laugh at the Warmistas. Where’s the category 4 Superstorm slamming into New York City and killing thousands? The media and the Warmista pseudo scientists can only stand by with their cameras and hope.
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Ric Werme responds:
August 26, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Where was the forecast for killing thousands? At the time Cat 4 was a reasonable prediction. Here’s an idea – if you’re so confident you can do better, start your own hurricane forecasting service. Do well, and you’ll, well, do well.
BTW, “The Warmista” was meant to be singular, sort of like “The Team” at UEA.
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First, Ric, I would not recommend driving into this, or any other, storm for a lookie-loo.
Second, I am not a meteorologist. At the time I made my post, I was thinking the storm would have turned further to the east and sped up. No, I don’t think I should be predicting weather. But it was obvious when I posted that NYC was over-reacting to something that is looking to be a day late and a dollar short.
But let’s talk about climate vs. weather. The warmistas that I was referring to are the climate Chicken Littles who have been praying for something like this to come along and take out NYC so they can blame the fossil fuel industry. I’m sure you’ll find the category 4 superstorm and the thousands of casualties in one of Algore’s screeds.
Meanwhile, TWC has to make their reporter go stand in the surf at Nag’s Head, the storm is weakening to a tropical depression and even in the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, where the eye now sits, there appears to be minimal storm surge. This is a good thing! Yes, there will be destruction and possible lives lost. That is a bad thing. Some of this will be because people didn’t heed short term warnings to evacuate and long term warnings not to build so close to sea level. Some of it will be the result of wind or rain that might have been impossible to dodge. None of it is the result of global warming (err… climate change).
Whipping up a frenzy of fear may be necessary to get our undereducated, under informed populace to move out of the way. But it will make them less likely to take these things seriously in the future.
PPS: Bulletin 29 (latest) says:
Here’s your wind speeds. This is a tropical storm at best. What a crook. NOAA strikes again.
http://classic.wunderground.com/US/NC/
Another overhyped event that is bringing every weather whacko out of the woodwork, stoked by the media and a politician or two.
There could be a very sizable storm surge and ‘grand’ high tide into the Bay of Fundy, depending on whether the storm center tracks east of the Bay, Irene hasn’t lost all rotation, and how the surge coincides with the normal tide rise…
Roger: Here’s NHC’s Dicussion No. 29, issued 11 am Aug. 27. “National Weather Service doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Irene made landfall around 1130 utc just west of Cape Lookout NC. The estimated intensity of landfall was 75 kt. This was bases on a peak flight-level of 98 kt ans a SFMR surface wind of 69 kt. A dropsonde released by a NOAA aircraft measured a minimum pressure of 951 mb around the time of landfall. The initial intensity will remain 75 kt.” This ‘discussion’ has remained unchanged. If NHC used any actual ground level windspeed measurements, it should have said so in its ‘discussion’ report and described the source. Otherwise, we’re left with NHC’s own words which seem clear. IE, it relied on aircraft measurement process to arrive at surface windspeed estimate at landfall.
NHC says 85 mph — bilgewater! What IS going on here? Is Hansen running NHC now?
Do to http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=34.24169922&lon=-77.94360352&zoom=8&pin=Wilmington%2c%20NC and scroll northward, or Observations from individual weather stations on NOAA, etc. Regardless, lots of trees will probably come down, etc. This will be an interesting study, post facto.
Since these hurricanes are such a terrible threat, why are they given innocuous names like Carla and Irene and Hugo? I suggest they be named after famous generals or admirals leading marauding armies or fleets. So started with A you’d have Attila and Alaric and Alexander, and for B you’d have… Well, the possibilities are endless. And you could even have general Robert E Lee sweeping up through Virginia, not long after general Vo Nguyen Giap.