At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
OK, last one then my weekend begins. Here’s my prog for landfall location and subsequent track. The eye will come “ashore” half way beween Morehead and Cape Hatteras. I put quotes because it will not really come fully ashore onto the main landmass for very long. By my reckoning the eye will continue NNE mostly over the Sound, just clipping the main landmass a bit SE of Hampton Roads. It will pass literally just offshore of VA Beach, remaining either off shore or just clipping the respective points and promontories along the Delmarva coast and Jersey Shore. There will be a second landfall just East of JFK Int’l on Sunday, mid day, at a Cat 1 strength. Good luck y’all, have a good weekend.
Another huge circus of media jowl-flapping about nothing.
Does this forecast imply that it will make landfall as a Cat. 2 storm?
Hope my Navy Family Cousins in Virgina Beach and Norfolk have split to Kentucky-where the rest of the family is….
Thoughts and prayers to all out there.
Never been through a hurricane Just some Nasty Sou’ Westers on the Southern Oregon Coast..
One on Blue Water crewing on a Sailboat.-Not fun….
My prediction is that Irene will make landfall in N Ireland/Central Scotland next Thursday at twenty five to three. After all, Irene is an Irish name, who could forget the haunting song ‘I’ll take you home again Irene’ or ‘When Irene’s Eyes are Smiling.’?
Also I think you’ll find that this is god’s punishment of the Irish and Scottish for founding the U.S. 23 out of the 27 signatories of the ‘Declaration of Independence’ were of Scots Ulster descent.
Roger Sowell says:
August 26, 2011 at 8:28 pm
It’s fizzling out, per NWS at 11:00 pm EDT, see below: (note, Fizzle is an American slang term for diminishing in intensity or force)..
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Sustained winds of 60-80 mph, you may call “fizzling”, if I was experiencing it I would call it a hurricane.
Here in the midwest, a 60 mph wind makes the high-tension towers in my backyard , begin with a sort of low whistle which becomes a high pitched keening, very unnerving.
It only lasts 10-20 seconds, so far.
Irene may “fizzle” for an hour in one direction, and then change 180 degrees.
It must get tiring.
Didn’t one of these things run out to sea, then turn back in when nobody was looking?
Anyway, Joe Bastardi predicted a lot of Eastern Seaboard ‘canes this season, way back in winter.
@u.k.(us), I defined fizzling above. Yes, Irene is growing weaker by the day. As I recall, it was up to 150 mph winds a day or so ago. Now down to 100, and forecast by the NWS (not by me!!) to be a mere 70 mph at landfall on Sunday. That’s not even hurricane strength. So, yes, it is fizzling. Not a major hurricane, not worth all the media hype. The only noteworthy impact might be coastal flooding, if there is a significant storm surge that coincides with high tide. I’ve been trying to find information on the storm surge of Irene, but not successful yet.
I lived through Hurricane Carla in 1961 when it came ashore near Houston, Texas. That was a major storm. This one is not. Carla peaked at a Category 5 and had weakened to a Category 4 at landfall. By the hurricane severity index (which accounts for both intensity and size), Carla was the most severe hurricane to hit the US, barely edging out Hugo and Betsy. Camille was more intense but far smaller. Irene will not even make the top 10 list, based on intensity being low.
Fizzling out is a good thing. If a Carla-type hurricane hit the East Coast and waltzed all the way up to Maine, the damage and loss of life would be immense. Of course, the offshore water is now far too cold for such an event. Probably due to all that global warming over the past 40 years from man’s evil emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels. One can only wonder where all the heat is hiding. (sarc off for those previous two sentences, for those who, as Anthony put it, are as dense as a neutron star).
From the Wikipedia (not a bad source for something like this:)
“Most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in the United States
based on size and intensity for total points on the Hurricane Severity Index
Rank Hurricane Year Intensity Size Total
1 Carla 1961 17 25 42
2 Hugo 1989 16 24 40
3 Betsy 1965 15 25 40
4 Camille 1969 22 14 36
5 Katrina 2005 13 23 36
6 Opal 1995 11 25 36
7 Miami 1926 15 19 34
8 Audrey 1957 17 16 33
9 Fran 1996 11 22 33
10 Wilma 2005 12 21 33 “
Correction, I wrote 150 mph above, that should be 115 mph. Big difference in the Categorization of Irene. So, 115 earlier, now down to 100, and predicted to continue falling in intensity.
Citizens,
Two nice pics http://bit.ly/rf0ed6 http://bit.ly/phHLhQ
Since we at WeatherAction long-range predicted this and other storms this season we have written to US Authorities offering advice on Irene and ALL US Storms See LETTER to NOAA-NHC / Dept Homelaad Security / Micaell Bloomberg NY Mayor http://twitpic.com/6brruh & for ongoingh comments go to http://bit.ly/qv2YJk
Thanks Piers Corbyn
Warm seas, but too close to land. Will fizzle. No seaward impact. it is that damn fast veer landward that causes havoc. Expect rain. And expect those bent on mischief to use this for cover.
BTW. we have not come close to duplicating storms in the 1700s along the Eastern Seaboard.
It is important to keep perspective in a number of ways. Yes, as a hurricane goes, Irene is rather tame in wind speeds, but makes up for this in size to an extent. the sheer size is going to cause the storm to slacken off less then if it was say smaller. This means higher winds, more rain, and worse flooding all along the East Coast. The pressure is also an indicater here.
But remember the main thing, the storm is fizzling because its starting to reach the area where the seas are not warm anymore and large parts of it are over land which both tend to stop the convective nature of the storm…
But even a fizzling will not stop the damage. Remember, that Florida would shrug off such a hurricane. The East Coast North of VA, etc not as much. Building codes are not as high and the flood areas are not as maintained, so flooding will be worse, and also the winds will do more damage.
This is not a small hurricane. The pressure shows the true strength and although wind speeds are less (I am glad for this small favor), the amount of energy will sustain itself long enough to rip apart large parts of the coast tomorrow. Remember, its all about perspective. Hurricanes do not effect the NE seaboard very often. Its like a small Earthquake for an area that is not used to it. To them it is huge, but from someone from California, they are like “what is the fuss?”
Perspective is everything. As much as I agree we all should at all times be sceptical of the media, and keep a close watch on what they say, they might be right for warning people in the track of this storm. Only tomorrow will tell, but I am hoping the media is wrong personally and that the area will swat this storm away like a mosquito. I sure hope so.
Christopher says:
August 26, 2011 at 7:36 pm
East Coast Americans are looking like wimpy little wusses, first they flip a crap over a small earthquake, now they flip out over what in effect will be a category 1 hurricane (IF THAT) towards New England. When did we become such a weak people?
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Hey dude please don’t be an embarrassment to my namesake. Seriously.
Is that all you can say?
That 5.9 might not be big to you but on our 300 million year old soft-sediment piedmont it is rare…and strong enough to cause significant damage to the 6th largest cathedral in the world.
And when faced with an Ike-style cyclone on a rare track headed toward the second largest city in the world….is that all you can say??
What you don’t realize that the most important and strategic parts of the USA is the Eastern Seaboard, for a variety of reasons….but most of them have to do with it containing the largest megalopolis in the country and the center of military and leadership of the Free World and your nation’s capital.
What you don’t realize is that the Eastern Seaboard contains only 11.7 percent of the nations area….but contains 37% of the nation’s population….most living within 100 miles of the coast….which are low lying, by the way.
Oh…and let me say….we get devastating earthquakes. They are are rare….but they happen. Charleston, 1886.
And tropical cyclones, noreasters and coastal surges, tornadoes, yeah we even get wildfires, droughts, severe thunderstorms, blizzards, ice storms, you name it.
The only thing that doesn’t occur are volcanoes. But not to worry, we are downwind from you so that would affect us too.
You may or may not have ever been to NYC but you have to be there to see how densely populated it is. Manhattan is, by FAR, the most densely populated island on the planet.
Perhaps you forgot an event about 10 years ago this September, and forgot how difficult it is to evacuate people from there.
Do me a favor and go back and study the dynamics of storm surges in narrowing harbors.
And if you can’t recant your “weak wuss” comment after all this new info which should enlighten you, then do me a favor and ___ ____.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
It really is a mistake for the NHC to call Irene a Category 1, when she has the central pressure of a Category 3.
Does the NHC forget the far superior Integrated Kinetic Energy technique which takes into account the total energy output of the storm in terajoules?
Irene may not be an Ike….but she is not just some “Category 1” either.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
“Matt Lynch says:
August 26, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Check out this video I found of Hurricane Irene in the Bahamas tearing up some sailboats and tossing them around like they were toys.”
Looks like a pleasant afternoon in Wales that.
I am concerned about you guys on the wrong side of the Atlantic, but vids like that play down the effect of hurricanes IMO. Wales gets 100mph winds most years and carries on regardless.
The Category is determined by wind-speed, not pressure. Since there is little correlation between storm size and maximum wind speed, an augmented scale that uses IKE would be great. However, we do not have half-way decent historical records of storm size.
Irene is about the typical size for an east coast hurricane originated in the Bahamas. The poleward outflow channel is usually very strong just prior to recurvature which allows for the wind field to expand greatly.
@savethesharks
Shes may not just be a Cat 1 either, it may get a lot weaker. Either way we’ll know all the facts in a few days time.
This is just a practice run for the hurricane coming September 10.
The northeast sector of Irene will remain over warm water and retain more strength than some imagine, until it comes ashore on the south coast of New England.
Don’t forget the trees have their summer load of leaves on. A tree that can withstand winter gales and gusts to 60 mph from the northwest does that without leaves. Each leaf is like a sail, catching the wind. Furthermore, winter gales cause many trees to grow in a manner that leans to the south, which is the wrong way to be leaning in a tropical storm’s south and southeast winds.
Be glad this storm is losing strength and coming north much more slowly than the 1938 hurricane. The 1938 hurricane stepped on the gas and came north at 60 mph. It didn’t have time to lose strength, but Irene may “merely” be a tropical storm, when it bicects New England. It may “merely” have winds of 60 mph. But don’t kid yourself. That can still take down plenty of trees, and knock out the power long enough to melt your icecream.
Irene will clear out the more rotton trees, so we are better prepared for September 10.
Local TV station had to put “gusts” on the map to make it look worse than it is. The prophecies of a major storm have not panned out. This is about as bad as a real good Nor’easter. To be quite honest, if you live on the coast and your house cannot survive a Cat2, it is incorrectly made. Looks like NC has dodged a bullet. This will be gone and outta here in about 3-4 hours….
Irene will be the first storm to make US landfall as a hurricane since Ike in 2008.
Christopher says:
August 26, 2011 at 7:36 pm
East Coast Americans are looking like wimpy little wusses, first they flip a crap over a small earthquake, now they flip out over what in effect will be a category 1 hurricane (IF THAT) towards New England. When did we become such a weak people?
Erm, you seem a bit confused there, Chris. There is media hype, which has a tendency to exaggerate things to an extreme on one hand, and on the other are people trying to determine how to respond to it in the most sensible way. It’s easy to say, after the fact with regard to Irene, that people “flipped out” over a cat 1 hurricane, when there was nothing ever said on the news about an expected weakening of the hurricane from a cat 3. There were reports even that it could strengthen to cat 4 for a time. So, blame the forecasters, if you must, and certainly the media, but your attitude towards people responding to that in the most sensible way they know how is not only unwarranted, but asinine as well.
National Hurricane Center reports Irene’s eye made landfall in NC at 7:30 ET as a Cat. 1 with winds of 85 mph. It forecasts Irene to remain a Cat. 1 hurricane as it works up through New England.
I get the feeling that forecasters are going to have some ‘splainin’ to do after this. Crying wolf isn’t nice, and can backfire the next time, when there really is one.
Just spoke to my sister in Guilford CT. Her main concern is falling trees. They have had so much rain the last couple of weeks that some of the trees are already listing due to the saturated ground. If they get another 5-10 inches of rain even 50 mph winds will take down the trees. One newscaster made a good point earlier today. Florida soil is made mostly of sand which drains quickly whereas the northeast has heavier loam and clay soil which retains water. Flooding and uprooted trees knocking down power lines will be the main threat in New England.
“Hurricane Irene: Obama warns of ‘historic’ storm”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14687944
“President Barack Obama has warned that Hurricane Irene, currently looming off the east coast of the US, could be a “historic” storm.
Seven states from North Carolina to Connecticut have declared emergencies ahead of Irene’s arrival.
Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in parts of four states, and in low-lying areas of New York City.
The category two storm has weakened a little and is expected to make landfall with winds of up to 100mph (155km/h).
David Willis reports.”