BREAKING NEWS – CERN Experiment Confirms Cosmic Rays Influence Cloud Seeds

UPDATE: see some reactions to this announcement here

From the GWPF

This refers to the CLOUD experiment at CERN.

I’ll have more on this as it develops (updated twice since the original report now), but for the short term, it appears that a non-visible light irradiance effect on Earth’s cloud seeds has been confirmed. The way it is posited to work is that the  effect of cosmic rays (modulated by the sun’s magnetic variations which either allow more or deflect more cosmic rays) creates cloud condensation nuclei in the Earth’s atmosphere. With more condensation nuclei, more clouds form and vice-versa. Clouds have significant effects on TSI at the surface.

Even the IPCC has admitted this in their latest (2007) report:

“Cloud feedbacks are the primary source of inter-model differences in equilibrium climate sensitivity, with low cloud being the largest contributor”.

Update: From the Nature article, Kirkby is a bit more muted in his assessment than the GWPF:

Early results seem to indicate that cosmic rays do cause a change. The high-energy protons seemed to enhance the production of nanometre-sized particles from the gaseous atmosphere by more than a factor of ten. But, Kirkby adds, those particles are far too small to serve as seeds for clouds. “At the moment, it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it’s a very important first step,” he says.

Update: Bizarrely, New Scientist headlines with: Cloud-making: Another human effect on the climate

================================================================

CERN Experiment Confirms Cosmic Rays Influence Climate Change.

by  Nigel Calder

Long-anticipated results of the CLOUD experiment at CERN in Geneva appear in tomorrow’s issue of the journal Nature (25 August). The Director General of CERN stirred controversy last month, by saying that the CLOUD team’s report should be politically correct about climate change (see my 17 July post below). The implication was that they should on no account endorse the Danish heresy – Henrik Svensmark’s hypothesis that most of the global warming of the 20th Century can be explained by the reduction in cosmic rays due to livelier solar activity, resulting in less low cloud cover and warmer surface temperatures.

Willy-nilly the results speak for themselves, and it’s no wonder the Director General was fretful.

Jasper Kirkby of CERN and his 62 co-authors, from 17 institutes in Europe and the USA, announce big effects of pions from an accelerator, which simulate the cosmic rays and ionize the air in the experimental chamber. The pions strongly promote the formation of clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules – aerosols of the kind that may grow into cloud condensation nuclei on which cloud droplets form. What’s more, there’s a very important clarification of the chemistry involved.

A breach of etiquette

My interest in CLOUD goes back nearly 14 years, to a lecture I gave at CERN about Svensmark’s discovery of the link between cosmic rays and cloudiness. It piqued Kirkby’s curiosity, and both Svensmark and I were among those who helped him to prepare his proposal for CLOUD.

By an unpleasant irony, the only Svensmark contribution acknowledged in theNature report is the 1997 paper (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen) on which I based my CERN lecture. There’s no mention of the successful experiments in ion chemistry and molecular cluster formation by the Danish team in Copenhagen, Boulby and latterly in Aarhus where they beat CLOUD to the first results obtained using a particle beam (instead of gamma rays and natural cosmic rays) to ionize the air in the experimental chamber – see http://calderup.wordpress.com/2011/05/17/accelerator-results-on-cloud-nucleation-2/

What will historians of science make of this breach of scientific etiquette? That Kirkby was cross because Svensmark, losing patience with the long delay in getting approval and funding for CLOUD, took matters into his own hands? Or because Svensmark’s candour about cosmic rays casting doubt on catastrophic man-made global warming frightened the national funding agencies? Or was Kirkby simply doing his best (despite the results) to obey his Director General by slighting all things Danish?

Personal rivalries aside, the important question is what the new CLOUD paper means for the Svensmark hypothesis. Pick your way through the cautious prose and you’ll find this:

Ion-induced nucleation [cosmic ray action] will manifest itself as a steady production of new particles [molecular clusters] that is difficult to isolate in atmospheric observations because of other sources of variability but is nevertheless taking place and could be quite large when averaged globally over the troposphere [the lower atmosphere].”

It’s so transparently favourable to what the Danes have said all along that I’m surprised the warmists’ house magazine Nature is able to publish it, even omitting the telltale graph shown at the start of this post. Added to the already favourable Danish experimental findings, the more detailed CERN result is excellent. Thanks a million, Jasper.

Enlightening chemistry

And in friendlier times we’d be sharing champagne for a fine discovery with CLOUD, that traces of ammonia can increase the production of the sulphuric clusters a thousandfold. It’s highlighted in the report’s title: “Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation” and it was made possible by the more elaborate chemical analysis in the big-team set-up in Geneva. In essence, the ammonia helps to stabilize the molecular clusters.

Although not saying it openly, the CLOUD team implies a put-down for the Danes with this result, repeatedly declaring that without ammonia there’d be little cluster production at low altitudes. But although the Aarhus experimenters did indeed assume the simpler reaction (H2SO4 + H2O), differing results in successive experimental runs made them suspect that varying amounts of trace impurities were present in the air cylinders used to fill their chamber. Now it looks as if a key impurity may have been ammonia. But some members of the CLOUD consortium also favoured (H2SO4 + H2O) and early runs in Geneva used no intentional ammonia. So they’ve little reason to scoff.

In any case, whether the basic chemistry is (H2SO4 + H2O) or (H2SO4 + H2O + NH3) is an academic rather than a practical point. There are always traces of ammonia in the real air, and according to the CLOUD report you need only one molecule in 30 billion. If that helps to oil Svensmark’s climatic motor, it’s good to know, but it calls for no apologies and alters the climatic implications not a jot.

The experiment’s logo. The acronym “Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets” always implied strong interest in Svensmark’s hypothesis. And the roles of the Galaxy and the Sun are acknowledged.

Technically, CLOUD is a welcome advance on the Danish experiments. Not only is the chemistry wider ranging but molecular clusters as small as 1.7 nanometres in diameter are detectable, compared with 4 nm in Denmark. And the set-up enables the scientists to study the ion chemistry at lower temperatures, corresponding to increasing altitudes in the atmosphere. Cluster production soars as the temperature goes down, until “almost every negative ion gives rise to a new particle” [i.e. molecular cluster]. The lowest temperature reported in the paper is -25 oC. That corresponds to an altitude of 6000 metres, so unless you wish to visualize a rain of cloud-seeding aerosols from on high, it’s not very relevant to Svensmark’s interest in the lowest 3000 metres.

How the warmists built their dam

Shifting from my insider’s perspective on the CLOUD experiment, to see it on the broader canvas of the politicized climate science of the early 21st Century, the chief reaction becomes a weary sigh of relief. Although they never said so, the High Priests of the Inconvenient Truth – in such temples as NASA-GISS, Penn State and the University of East Anglia – always knew that Svensmark’s cosmic ray hypothesis was the principal threat to their sketchy and poorly modelled notions of self-amplifying action of greenhouse gases.

In telling how the obviously large influences of the Sun in previous centuries and millennia could be explained, and in applying the same mechanism to the 20th warming, Svensmark put the alarmist predictions at risk – and with them the billions of dollars flowing from anxious governments into the global warming enterprise.

For the dam that was meant to ward off a growing stream of discoveries coming from the spring in Copenhagen, the foundation was laid on the day after the Danes first announced the link between cosmic rays and clouds at a space conference in Birmingham, England, in 1996. “Scientifically extremely naïve and irresponsible,”Bert Bolin declared, as Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

As several journalists misbehaved by reporting the story from Birmingham, the top priority was to tame the media. The first courses of masonry ensured that anything that Svensmark and his colleagues might say would be ignored or, failing that, be promptly rubbished by a warmist scientist. Posh papers like The Times of London and the New York Times, and posh TV channels like the BBC’s, readily fell into line. Enthusiastically warmist magazines like New Scientist and Scientific Americanneeded no coaching.

Similarly the journals Nature and Science, which in my youth prided themselves on reports that challenged prevailing paradigms, gladly provided cement for higher masonry, to hold the wicked hypothesis in check at the scientific level. Starve Svensmark of funding. Reject his scientific papers but give free rein to anyone who criticizes him. Trivialize the findings in the Holy Writ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. None of this is paranoia on my part, but a matter of close personal observation since 1996.

“It’s the Sun, stupid!” The story isn’t really about a bunch of naughty Danish physicists. They are just spokesmen for the most luminous agent of climate change. As the Sun was what the warmists really wanted to tame with their dam, they couldn’t do it. And coming to the Danes’ aid, by briefly blasting away many cosmic rays with great puffs of gas, the Sun enabled the team to trace in detail the consequent reduction in cloud seeding and liquid water in clouds. See my posthttp://calderup.wordpress.com/2010/05/03/do-clouds-disappear/ By the way, that research also disposes of a morsel of doubt in the new CLOUD paper, about whether the small specks made by cosmic rays really grow sufficiently to seed cloud droplets.

As knowledge accumulated behind their dam and threatened to overtop it, the warmists had one last course to lay. Paradoxically it was CLOUD. Long delays with this experiment to explore the microchemical mechanism of the Svensmark effect became the chief excuse for deferring any re-evaluation of the Sun’s role in climate change. When the microchemical mechanism was revealed prematurely by the SKY experiment in Copenhagen and published in 2006, the warmists said, “No particle accelerator? That won’t do! Wait for CLOUD.” When the experiment in Aarhus confirmed the mechanism using a particle accelerator they said, “Oh that’s just the Danes again! Wait for CLOUD.”

Well they’ve waited and their dam has failed them.

Hall of Shame

Retracing those 14 years, what if physics had functioned as it is supposed to do? What if CLOUD, quickly approved and funded, had verified the Svensmark effect with all the authority of CERN, in the early 2000s. What if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had done a responsible job, acknowledging the role of the Sun and curtailing the prophecies of catastrophic warming?

For a start there would have no surprise about the “travesty” that global warming has stopped since the mid-1990s, with the Sun becoming sulky. Vast sums might have been saved on misdirected research and technology, and on climate change fests and wheezes of every kind. The world’s poor and their fragile living environment could have had far more useful help than precautions against warming.

And there would have been less time for so many eminent folk from science, politics, industry, finance, the media and the arts to be taken in by man-made climate catastrophe. (In London, for example, from the Royal Society to the National Theatre.) Sadly for them, in the past ten years they’ve crowded with their warmist badges into a Hall of Shame, like bankers before the crash.

=========================================================

As I reported on May 14th, 2011 in  Update on the CERN CLOUD experiment:

From Physics World Head in a CLOUD:

In this special video report for physicsworld.com CLOUD project leader Jasper Kirkby explains what his team is trying to achieve with its experiment. “We’re trying to understand what the connection is between a cosmic ray going through the atmosphere and the creation of so-called aerosol seeds – the seed for a cloud droplet or an ice particle,” Kirkby explains.

The CLOUD experiment recreates these cloud-forming processes by directing the beamline at CERN’s proton synchrotron into a stainless-steel chamber containing very pure air and selected trace gases.

One of the aims of the experiment is to discover details of cloud formation that could feed back into climate models. “Everybody agrees that clouds have a huge effect on the climate. But the understanding of how big that effect is is really very poorly known,” says Kirkby.

Here’s the video, click image below to launch it.

=====================================================

More coverage: Big hat tip to WUWT reader “Andrew20”

Cosmic rays get ahead in CLOUD

http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2011/August/24081102.asp

Cloud formation may be linked to cosmic rays

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html

Cloud formation study casts a shadow over certain climate models

http://www.u.tv/News/Cloud-formation-study-casts-a-shadow-over-certain-climate-models/ddd312e6-c710-49d0-9a5d-e41e544024a9

======================================================

Update: From Nigel Calder’s blog

A graph they’d prefer you not to notice. Tucked away near the end of online supplementary material, and omitted from the printed CLOUD paper in Nature, it clearly shows how cosmic rays promote the formation of clusters of molecules (“particles”) that in the real atmosphere can grow and seed clouds. In an early-morning experimental run at CERN, starting at 03.45, ultraviolet light began making sulphuric acid molecules in the chamber, while a strong electric field cleansed the air of ions. It also tended to remove molecular clusters made in the neutral environment (n) but some of these accumulated at a low rate. As soon as the electric field was switched off at 04.33, natural cosmic rays (gcr) raining down through the roof of the experimental hall in Geneva helped to build clusters at a higher rate. How do we know they were contributing? Because when, at 04.58, CLOUD simulated stronger cosmic rays with a beam of charged pion particles (ch) from the accelerator, the rate of cluster production became faster still. The various colours are for clusters of different diameters (in nanometres) as recorded by various instruments. The largest (black) took longer to grow than the smallest (blue). This is Fig. S2c from supplementary online material for J. Kirkby et al., Nature, 476, 429-433, © Nature 2011
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bob paglee

Is Prof. Svensmark finally vindicated?

I had no idea Calder was so bitter over all this. I’d like to read some from a more disinterested source. Maybe Nature’s editors will have something worthwhile, err, well they won’t. Or perhaps, umm, they’re even worse.
I assume the paper will be behind a paywall.

Sean Peake

Congratulations to Svensmark

Steeptown

It’s the sun, stupid.

Scarface

If this isn’t the final nail in the coffin for CAGW, I don’t know what is.
Svensmark deserves a Nobel Price, but only after the ones of Gore and Pachauri are taken back.
The endgame has finally started. Victory is near!!!

Here’s the paper abstract: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v476/n7361/full/nature10343.html
Received 9 September 2010; accepted 24 June 2011.

Louise

Rather than quote the GWPF’s interpretation of the report, why not quote straight from Nature where it says “Early results seem to indicate that cosmic rays do cause a change. The high-energy protons seemed to enhance the production of nanometre-sized particles from the gaseous atmosphere by more than a factor of ten. But, Kirkby adds, those particles are far too small to serve as seeds for clouds. “At the moment, it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it’s a very important first step,” he says.”
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html
REPLY: Because I didn’t see the Nature report until just a few minutes ago, as noted at the top, I’ll be adding more as it develops. The tendency here by those on the publci funding dole will be to reduce the impact of the study by saying there is no connection and/or that it needs further study. I’ll post both sides. – Anthony

Nature News:
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html
Cloud formation may be linked to cosmic rays
“Experiment probes connection between climate change and radiation bombarding the atmosphere.
It sounds like a conspiracy theory: ‘cosmic rays’ from deep space might be creating clouds in Earth’s atmosphere and changing the climate. Yet an experiment at CERN, Europe’s high-energy physics laboratory near Geneva, Switzerland, is finding tentative evidence for just that.
The findings, published today in Nature1, are preliminary, but they are stoking a long-running argument over the role of radiation from distant stars in altering the climate….”
(See more…)

mpaul

I wonder if Svensmark will now be forced to live out the remainder of his days under house arrest in the basement of CERN?

Bernie

It seems to me that the CLOUD experiment was more of a severe test (cf. Popper) than anything that the CAGW folks have been able to muster.

Read write up here and on the Gavin’s blog. None the wiser.
I am still ploughing on with a different idea and the more solid data: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NorthAtlanticOutlook.htm

Jeff Carlson

gee, looks like Hunstman owes Perry an apology …

Theo Goodwin

Wonderful article. The great benefits that will come from the work of this team and Svensmark include the fact that this is genuine science, conducted entirely within the standards of scientific method, that Svensmark and friends are really good explicators of their work for the common person, unlike everyone who is a “mainstream climate scientist,” and that the public will get to learn the difference between genuine science and what the MSM has passed off as science.
Also, there is the small matter of the politicians who jumped on the “global warming” bandwagon and the settled science who will now learn that the science wasn’t settled.

Nature’s words on the topic have the same value of Osama’s words on Christianity …

Bryan

…”The pions strongly promote the formation of clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules – aerosols of the kind that may grow into cloud condensation nuclei on which cloud droplets form. What’s more, there’s a very important clarification of the chemistry involved.”….
I wonder if this has implications for Venus with high levels of sulphuric acid in the atmosphere.

Ged

From the abstract of this paper:
“We find that atmospherically relevant ammonia mixing ratios of 100 parts per trillion by volume, or less, increase the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid particles more than 100–1,000-fold. Time-resolved molecular measurements reveal that nucleation proceeds by a base-stabilization mechanism involving the stepwise accretion of ammonia molecules. Ions increase the nucleation rate by an additional factor of between two and more than ten at ground-level galactic-cosmic-ray intensities, provided that the nucleation rate lies below the limiting ion-pair production rate.”

nycoordinator

Hooray!!!!
The AGW hoax is dead!
Henrik Svensmark should be given a REAL Nobel Prize!
REPLY: Not dead, just dented – Anthony

Ged

Finally, from the paper’s conclusion:
“Although we have not yet duplicated the concentrations or complexities of atmospheric organic vapours, we find that ion enhancement of nucleation occurs for all temperatures, humidities and cluster compositions observed so far. Ion-induced nucleation will manifest itself as a steady production of new particles that is difficult to isolate in atmospheric observations because of other sources of variability but is nevertheless taking place and could be quite large when averaged globally over the troposphere. However, the fraction of these freshly nucleated particles that grow to sufficient sizes to seed cloud droplets, as well as the role of organic vapours in the nucleation and growth processes, remain open questions experimentally. These are important findings for the potential link between galactic cosmic rays and clouds.”

Vernon A. Cornell

Sir…This and the recent article from the University of Colorado that confirms the oceans continue to rise 3.2 mm per year…only 3.2…
Should set us up to get something reasonable from the UN’s IPCC in a year or two…
I am sure they…those that write the story for governments…are paying attention.
We..the people all over the world…need get off the idea that CO2 is “bad”
Acorn1…San Diego

I’m lost for words … fantastic news.

It is not the nail in the CAGW coffin, but it is strong evidence that the question remains on what is influencing the weather and by how much. Before the age of political graft, that was called science.

Tony McGough

It’s a pity Calder is so sour. It detracts from the impact of the results.
I am very happy to see my discipline (Nuclear Physics) being used to such good effect in establishing the truth about climate change, and in cooperation with the chemists elucidating some of the finer detail of the mechanisms.
And scrapping the windmill programme will pay for many a CERN….

Cuthbert

Erm it doesn’t confirm it, the original nature says tentative, and even Kirby says “At the moment, it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it’s a very important first step,”
It’s a little to early for Calder to be proclaiming game,set & match, but still interesting results.

Leon Brozyna

Wow … we’ve had the CO2 study showing it’s the warming that’s increased CO2 levels and now this. What’s left … as the sun’s activity diminishes prove an increase in Earth’s albedo exists?

Antoninus

Hope this stays top post its extremely VIP as far as this whole climate scam goes. Svensmark deserves nobel prize for this and Gore et al should have it withdrawn except R Spencers role LOL!

Theo Goodwin

“REPLY: Because I didn’t see the Nature report until just a few minutes ago, as noted at the top, I’ll be adding more as it develops. The tendency here by those on the publci funding dole will be to reduce the impact of the study by saying there is no connection and/or that it needs further study. I’ll post both sides. – Anthony”
Extremely well balanced.
Right, Louise, this report does not prove that the sun is the cause of all climate change. However, the work reported on is classically good science and it is extremely important for that reason alone. Having imbibed “mainstream climate science” for so many years, all of us are ready for a dose of genuine science.

Dr T G Watkins

The beginning of the end for CAGW! At the very least the GCMs will need to be reprogrammed
Calder, of course, co-authored ‘The Chilling Stars’ with Svensmark an excellent read. I fully understand the frustration that Calder and Svensmark must feel.
The next few weeks will be interesting especially the response of the MSM.

Northern California Bureaucrat

With apologies to Mr. Spock…
Only human arrogance would assume the warming must be caused by man.

bob paglee

Try this address for Jasper Kirby’s entire CLOUD concept excellent presentation at CERN in 2009 but be patient with the first couple of minutes of introduction spoken in German followed by Kirby’s presentation in English :
http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073/

Frank Black

I’ve been telling my students about Svensmark’s model since his book came out. Now we can discuss experimental support for the model- wow! what a teachable moment. Science at its best! You bet we’ll also discuss the politics – the kids are getting quite savvy about this scam.

Acorn1 - San Diego

Thanks…Anthony. We await your next…

“omitting the telltale graph shown at the start of this post.” This post? No tale-telling graphs located; still searching …

Nigel, thanks much for your insights. I don’t know how Svensmark will be viewed in some circles, but, here in the real world of climatology, we know his contributions.
You are spot on about the costs of not exploring properly the issues raised by many, including Svensmark. It can’t be quantified, but the expense was great, and will continue until the politics dictating direction of research and flow of money is changed and the silly obsession over CO2 is abated.
I won’t bother anyone with my limited knowledge of molecular chemistry, but, I would point out that during my observations of the greater climate discussions there are two topics which the discussion always comes back to. The sun and clouds! It seems to me, any legitimate discussion on what runs our climate has to include both.
Strangely, the words running through my head now are lyrical…….
I’ve looked at clouds from both sides now
From up and down, and still somehow
It’s cloud illusions I recall
I really don’t know clouds at all

and
Sunshine on my shoulders makes me happy
Sunshine in my eyes can make me cry
Sunshine on the water looks so lovely
Sunshine almost always makes me high

and for those that would ignore the effects of the sun…….
…………….
They call the Rising Sun
And it’s been the ruin of many a poor boy
And God I know I’m one

matthu

It’s worse than we thought:
Organic chemical vapours may have a previously unimagined cooling effect on global climate. Measurements by researchers at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) show that current theories can’t fully explain how clouds form and hint that organic aerosols – tiny liquid or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere – play an important role in the process.
BUTif we can only find out what those organic aerosols ARE, we may be able to forestall global cooling by introducing a suitable taxation mechanism. Of course, this will mean major adaptation to our existing models which some of us had started to question anyway …

Steve Kennel

Cosmoclimatology is a discovery of historic significance !!!
Congratulations to Svensmark
P.S.
A few years ago I tried to give a colleague that has a science interest Svensmarks book “The Chilling Stars” (he is fanatically warmist) . He got angry and accused Svensmark of being anti-science and me of being dumb for falling for something so stupid (just in incredible).

matthu

Brian – for the telltale graph, see Calder’s article here:
http://calderup.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/cern-experiment-confirms-cosmic-ray-action/

Kaboom

Looking for indictions against the leading AGW fraudsters for crimes against humanity from the ICC any day now … as if.

Doug Proctor

As I read the abstract, the following points are made:
1. More than half the cloud droplets come from ion-induced droplets.
2. Current ammonia levels in the atmosphere increase the nucleation numbers by 100 – 1000 X at occurring in a non-ammonia containing atmosphere.
3. Current cosmic ray densities increase the amounts of nucleation between 2 and >10 relative to a non-cosmic ray environment as long as there is enough ammonia in the atmosphere. (the rate increases until saturation or stability occurs at the higher rates).
We “know” average cloud cover is about 26% (?) and cloud albedo between 0.6 and 0.9, averaging for this purpose 0.75 (?). The current insolation, averaged over the globe, is TOA 340.5 W/m2.
The IPCC give a value of about 3.4 W/m2 for a radiative value of the doubling of CO2, leading to a 1.4C – 3.0+ under current projections (> 2 ppmv/yr CO2) for Y2100.
So:
1. There is more than enough ammonia in the atmosphere to “use” more cosmic rays.
2. An increase of cosmic gamma rays by 2% (for example) leads to a 4% – >20% increase in nucleation numbers.
2. An increase of 4-20% increase in nucleation numbers leads to a 2-10% increase in cloud formation.
Given what we “know” about current cloud covers and insolation, a 2% increase in cosmic ray input leads to between an increase of 0.52% to 2.6% cloud cover (.265 to .286 cloud cover), and an increased reflectance of a 0.135 W/m2 to 6.64 W/m2 (using an RF of 0.75 for clouds).
Conclusion:
1. The equivalent radiative power for a 2% increase in cosmic ray input, 0.14 – 6.6 W/m2, is within the current range required to account for the global temperature increase since 1820, and beyond that of a worst-case scenario for CO2.
2. This experiment establishes an “as-good-as” mechanism as anthropogenic CO2 for the observed post-LIA temperature rise, and, in particular, the post-1965 temperature rise IF a rise in cosmic ray input equal to or less than 2% of the pre-LIA and/or pre-1965 period can be established.
So:
1) Could someone check/redo the math?
2) Could someone pull up a cosmic ray input graph of density vs time?
Bottom line – how much cosmic ray increase do we need to replace CO2 as a heating factor?
Thanks.

Lawrence Beatty

I’m a tad confused. Are the results from Cern a cause for conCERN, and if so for which side of the AGW debate? So far the way I read it that the increase cloud effect is only possible if ammonia is present? Bu then Calder says ammonia is always present in the real atmosphere. So is Svensgard right or not.
As usula annoyingly unclear.

richard telford

Since there is no trend in cosmic radiation over the last 50 years, it is simply not possible for changes in cosmic radiation to have caused the trend in global temperatures. The experiments reported in the Nature paper are useful and interesting but do not change this basic fact.

Good news. It’s the Sun after all.
No wonder our “world’s foremost solar scientist” is silent.

DirkH

It’s easy for the Americans to wonder why Nigel Calder is so bitter. But, see: Europe is crippled by Kyoto and the crazy 20:20:20 initiative of the EU; Europe’s rulers (the unelected EU Commissioners) and nearly all ruling parties of the member states are warmists (with the notable exceptions of Czechia and maybe Poland). This continent is run by mad people; and elections don’t provide a remedy as all the parties try to out-green each other. If you think the Chevy Volt is an expensive failure of your government pork schemes, you’re welcome, we have projects like that in the EU all over the place, too many to mention. It’s the biggest theft in history. All of this has been driven by the AGW science movement. One could actually have done something useful with all the money, for instance leave it in people’s pockets.

vboring

Now to see if science really does matter to the AGW beast – or will it continue to feed on its own momentum and rhetoric?
<>
The timing couldn’t be better with Perry getting so much attention by calling AGW folks anti-scientific.
<>
BTW, this doesn’t mean CO2 doesn’t play a role. It just means the positive feedbacks that turn a physically likely 1-1.5C rise per CO2 doubling into 5-7C per doubling are, misdiagnosis based on models that denied the sun a role.

John Whitman

Nigel Calder said,

Hall of Shame
Retracing those 14 years, what if physics had functioned as it is supposed to do? What if CLOUD, quickly approved and funded, had verified the Svensmark effect with all the authority of CERN, in the early 2000s. What if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had done a responsible job, acknowledging the role of the Sun and curtailing the prophecies of catastrophic warming?

—————–
The consensus aCO2 biased IPCC is being shown and will be recorded in history as the blocker of profound scientific progress. Indeed, it wasn’t about science for the IPCC it was the advancing of their chartered CAGW political agenda.
John

Don Keiller

The Graph from the Supplementary material is the “smoking gun”. I’m not surprised that Nature concealed it.

pyromancer76

Calder bitter? Appears to me he is speaking the truth about his experience. I ask Anthony and others to read this review of the science from 1998-2009 on cosmic-ray influence of Earth’s climate vis-a-vis solar max-min (esp the magnetic field): http://theclimatetruth.org/science/solar-variability-and-climate-cycles/cosmic-rays/. Does anyone believe they must be “careful” about acknowledging that this is the most significant theory at present, with vigorous evidence from experiments, observations, and paleoclimatology beyond anything else? I am not a scientist. Please help me.

It looks like a lot of work still needs to be done to demonstrate the effect of this discovery on the global cloud coverage and as a consequence the effect on the global warming/cooling, but definitely it’s a huge milestone in understanding the complex mechanism that is the Earth climate. I don’t expect AGW proponents to give up any of their mantra and I am waiting for their rebuttals that will affirm that the effect of cosmic ray, although present is minimal and unable to explain all the global warming observed in the past century and so on. Unfortunately it will take years of rigorous studies and experiments and discussions to prove the validity of this theory. And the scientific demonstration it’s not the biggest challenge I foresee. Most of all it will have to fight against the multibillion AGW industry.

Oliver Cromwell

http://www.apis.ac.uk/overview/pollutants/overview_NH3.htm
Yes Ammonia is a naturally occurring atmospheric gas – however amounts in the atmosphere have increased due to anthropogenic causes – so we’ll be to blame for the cooling now instead… 😉

Greg Goodknight

There’s nothing like megabuck physics to break a logjam. This will give cover to the folks who have been inching towards the exits as the AGW bandwagon has faltered.
Perhaps it will finally be time for the American Physical Society to seriously review their position on CO2 and climate.

rob m

Someone once told me that the science was settled.