A Forecast Extreme New Zealand Weather Cold and Snow Event
By Dr. Roger Pielke Sr.
While it is common to state that weather is not climatology, the reality is that climatalogy is composed of a collection of weather events over some time period. 30-year average temperatures and precipitation, for example, are two examples. NCDC has recently released its new climatological averages; e.g. see
Anthony Arguez, Russell S. Vose, 2011: The Definition of the Standard WMO Climate Normal: The Key to Deriving Alternative Climate Normals Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 92, Issue 6 (June 2011) pp. 699-704. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2955.1
It is also important to recognize, however, that extreme weather events are themselves part of climatology. It is such occurrences that often cause the most significant societal events. It is also useful to identify thes extreme events as there are often claims that extreme events, such as drought and heat waves, will become more common (e.g. see), or less common such as snowstorms (e.g. see).
The extreme snow event in New Zealand that is forecast this weekend is noteworthy in the context of climatology since, according to the IPCC-type predictions, such events should be becoming less common. The forecasts for this event are quite serious. The news agency TVNZ just released the article
Much of NZ braced for a polar blast
The text reads
Snow to sea level and blizzard conditions are set to hit New Zealand’s deep south, with snowfalls also spreading north.
MetService is warning of a polar outbreak in the deep south overnight tonight and tomorrow morning.
An extremely cold southerly outbreak is expected to bring snow to sea level over the south of the South Island early Sunday morning, the forecaster says.
A heavy snowfall warning has been issued for Fiordland south of Te Anau, Southland and the south and east of Otago including Dunedin.
Snow is forecast to spread to many other parts of the South Island and the lower North Island later on Sunday, it says.
Significant accumulations are likely in Fiordland south of Te Anau, Southland and the south and east of Otago.
The snow is expected to continue on Monday and into Tuesday.
The heavy snow is likely to cause major disruptions to traffic and make driving conditions very difficult, MetService warns.
Strong southerlies, gale-force on exposed coasts, with the cold temperatures will make the wind feel bitterly cold and create blizzard like conditions in some places, it says.
Farmers are being advised that stock may need shelter.
Road workers at the ready
Roading contractors are preparing to work around the clock this weekend clearing snow and laying grit.
The Transport Agency says it’s inevitable restrictions and some closures will be needed during the polar blast predicted.
Spokesman Andy Knackstedt says the number one concern is ensuring people’s safety.
He says people need to plan ahead, check the latest information, and think carefully about whether the journey is necessary or not.
This quite likely will be an historic extreme event for New Zealand, and is not in the direction of expected extreme events forecast such as presented in the news article in Cosmos by Oliver Chan titled
No snow, more drought, climate report warns
that I posted on yesterday in
source of the two images ECMWF
The last time Wellington (NZ) city – at sea level – had snow like this was the 1930s. I recall some light snow a couple of times in the 1970’s but NOTHING like his.
While this may not be a significant event for South Islanders, for us in Wellington it’s novel and slightly wondrous… as you’ll see on some of the faces on this video :
http://www.stuff.co.nz/5449218/Snow-in-Wellingtons-Cuba-Mall
Here in Christchurch there was another band of snow starting at 3 am this morning (Tuesday). The hail at the front of the band woke me. This morning from before 7 to 8 the sky was clear (now overcast) – bad news as it means everything has frozen. The snow is crystalline, icy and caked, heavy, and has stuck to a lot of things, including trees (this will bring down power lines in places). We are due the last great band of crud (possibly the biggest) at about 1-4 this afternoon. It will hit Wellington and the east coast of the North Island hard after that.
It is like a “normal” southerly change (very common weather pattern in NZ), except that instead of lasting for a few hours at most, the frontal part of the southerly change has become stuck for several days. One weather boffin described it as an “Antarctic railway”, with air coming straight from Scott Base 3,000 kms away.
This air rushing through from the Antarctic is moist and cool but not very cold here at sea level. We are getting nasty air temperatures, swinging around either side of zero, causing slight melts and re-freeezings every few hours. There will no doubt be some big snowfalls in the mountains and foothiills.
All the best.
A correction to my post at 1.02 a.m., The snow did settle in Palmerston North after I left town to head west. About an inch over the main part of the City (ave height 30m/100ft a.s.l.), and up to 3 inches (75mm) in the higher suburbs out by the University (and closer to the Tararua Ranges). I’ve seen nothing like it in my 54 years, and I suspect that we have to go back to July 28th, 1939 to find a similar example. I have read historical newspaper reports of snowmen being built in the city centre on two occasions about 100 years ago. This puts this current event into real perspective.
Well I just got an e-mail today from my sister, saying they had had some snow flurries around Auckland.
I can remember in the 1940s and 50s going to school, in the morning, and breaking the ice on the water puddles with my toes (in wintertime of course). Yes strange as it may seem, I did walk to school barefoot in winter. But I can’t say I have any recollections of having snow around Auckland; which is not to say it never happened; just I have no memories of it happening.
My wintertimes were a time of “chaps” and “chilblains”, which I assume, were some mild form of frost bite; my feet were all cracked (chaps) and puffy red (chilblains) as a regular occurrence in wintertime.
Yes I do wear shoes most of the time now.
Hi George,
my late mother suffered from chillblains during the Great Depression when she lived at Tariki, between Stratford and Inglewood in Taranaki (that whole area is currently under snow BTW). Going barefoot to school in the snow, she ended up being looked after by her grandparents, both of whom were first generation New Zealanders but knew the ‘old remedies,’ from Denmark on how to treat chillblains. It snowed at least once every winter at Tariki back then, being the highest point on State Highway 3 !
Cheers
Coops
Warm and sunny now in Christchurch!
All lies! There’s no such things as chillblains.
“Chilblains”, however, are: “(pathology) An itchy purple red inflammation of the skin, especially of the hands, feet and ears. It occurs when capillaries below the skin are damaged by exposure to cold weather.
“