A Forecast Extreme New Zealand Weather Cold and Snow Event
By Dr. Roger Pielke Sr.
While it is common to state that weather is not climatology, the reality is that climatalogy is composed of a collection of weather events over some time period. 30-year average temperatures and precipitation, for example, are two examples. NCDC has recently released its new climatological averages; e.g. see
Anthony Arguez, Russell S. Vose, 2011: The Definition of the Standard WMO Climate Normal: The Key to Deriving Alternative Climate Normals Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 92, Issue 6 (June 2011) pp. 699-704. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2955.1
It is also important to recognize, however, that extreme weather events are themselves part of climatology. It is such occurrences that often cause the most significant societal events. It is also useful to identify thes extreme events as there are often claims that extreme events, such as drought and heat waves, will become more common (e.g. see), or less common such as snowstorms (e.g. see).
The extreme snow event in New Zealand that is forecast this weekend is noteworthy in the context of climatology since, according to the IPCC-type predictions, such events should be becoming less common. The forecasts for this event are quite serious. The news agency TVNZ just released the article
Much of NZ braced for a polar blast
The text reads
Snow to sea level and blizzard conditions are set to hit New Zealand’s deep south, with snowfalls also spreading north.
MetService is warning of a polar outbreak in the deep south overnight tonight and tomorrow morning.
An extremely cold southerly outbreak is expected to bring snow to sea level over the south of the South Island early Sunday morning, the forecaster says.
A heavy snowfall warning has been issued for Fiordland south of Te Anau, Southland and the south and east of Otago including Dunedin.
Snow is forecast to spread to many other parts of the South Island and the lower North Island later on Sunday, it says.
Significant accumulations are likely in Fiordland south of Te Anau, Southland and the south and east of Otago.
The snow is expected to continue on Monday and into Tuesday.
The heavy snow is likely to cause major disruptions to traffic and make driving conditions very difficult, MetService warns.
Strong southerlies, gale-force on exposed coasts, with the cold temperatures will make the wind feel bitterly cold and create blizzard like conditions in some places, it says.
Farmers are being advised that stock may need shelter.
Road workers at the ready
Roading contractors are preparing to work around the clock this weekend clearing snow and laying grit.
The Transport Agency says it’s inevitable restrictions and some closures will be needed during the polar blast predicted.
Spokesman Andy Knackstedt says the number one concern is ensuring people’s safety.
He says people need to plan ahead, check the latest information, and think carefully about whether the journey is necessary or not.
This quite likely will be an historic extreme event for New Zealand, and is not in the direction of expected extreme events forecast such as presented in the news article in Cosmos by Oliver Chan titled
No snow, more drought, climate report warns
that I posted on yesterday in
source of the two images ECMWF
I have freinds in the Wellington region. They say this is the first time they have seen snow, that is settling, this low. Many roads closed, particularly the Rimutaka Hill road.
WOW! Thats cold, even for Wellington, but Whitby?
http://www.kiwiweather.co.nz/whitbyweather/
Whitby Weather, Porirua, near Wellington, New Zealand -41.6.53S -174.53.24E Altitude 96 Metres 315 f
Interesting webcams…
Started snowing in Christchuch at 8.30pm.
Air temp max today was at 12.30 pm 9.3c. After that we had two light hail showers.
By 3pm the air temp was down to 3.5c.
And now at 9.20pm it -0.1c.
Its not looking good.
When ever you see a nice round number such as 30 its always useful to ask why that one and not an odd less nice one . Sometimes the answer is in your own hands, that is to say 10 fingers on your hands which for human means we tend to find to easier to like and comprehended numbers that fit into decimal 10 . So its no real surprise to find this number has no real scientific validity .
We are going to have a fairly nasty few days here in central New Zealand, but it is conincidence, not climate change. There are always areas of low and high pressure, with airflows around them. It just happens this time that three pressure areas have lined themselves up so nicely that there is a clear pathway straight from the deep southern ocean to the north of New Zealand, and the polar air is heading a bit further and faster than normal.
Mr Duncan [head analyst of WeatherWatch] said the predicted polar blast this weekend would depend on an “extremely large high building over Australia”.
I completely misunderstood this at first, by thinking “building” was the noun. Gives quite a different meaning 😉
In Auckland it is hailing tonight. News is saying that Southland is cut off at present.
The forecast has turned out to be correct. All roads into Dunedin have been closed and the country has been isolated. In our small township, this has been the biggest snowfall for at least a dozen years and it seems that there is more to come. Friends who turned away from log fires in favour of heat pumps (environmentally friendly, you know, because the South Island runs on hydro) are discovering that some are not much good when it gets very cold.
We are told to expect gale force winds and very low temperatures, which are already here. This is unusual, but not unprecedented. Snow hung around on the hills for some six weeks in the late ’90s and we had snow flurries on Christmas day in 1975. That, of course, is mid summer down here!
Nothing unusual happening in North Westland yet. With luck the snow will slide up the east side and leave us alone in the west.
Arlington TX:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Arlington&state=TX&site=FWD&textField1=32.6945&textField2=-97.1275&e=1
berniel says:
August 13, 2011 at 11:01 pm
Mr AnythingisPossible, surely you dont mean this thread last month:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/07/noaas-new-normals-a-step-change-of-0-5-degrees-f/
If you scroll down you will find quite a noisy discussion speculating on the backstory to the WMC/IMO decisions quoted by John F. Hultquist above.
___________________________________________________________________________
My bad. Apologies all around.
What actually happened was that I had a hard drive SNAFU shortly after I posted the original comment, leaving me without my computer for 3 weeks. Never did go back to read the previous thread until now.
Whoops……
We are having a good dose of AGW today in New Zealand. Snow to low lying areas in a lot of areas in NZ. But I have been reminded this is only weather, climate only happens when record temperatures are recorded.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10745187
Snow on Waikanae Beach, that is a rare event indeed.
I live in the Waikato lowlands, just north of Hamilton, about 100ft above sea level. We just had the first snow flurry I’ve ever seen here. There was a short burst of hail, then, just for a few seconds, it snowed. A couple of minutes later it happened again. There was snow right up to the northern tip of the North Island in July 1939; that may be the last time.
It’s sunny again now, but more cold weather is on the way.
http://www.number8network.co.nz/news/2011/08/15/snowing-in-gordonton/
lt is nice to belong to a worldwide family of WUWT readers and contributors so that when an event happens in one area of the world, we have eye witness updates and/or information to put everything into their proper perspective for the rest of us who do not live there. Thank you!
With all due respect to my southern cousins on the ‘Mainland,’ (The South Island to non-Kiwis), what to you is just another 5 year event, is, in some North Island locales, a one in 30 year event. I had snow settle at my location in the central Manawatu Plains (15m above sea level, 16km from the coast) for the first time in the 25 winters I have been here. Snow settled in some western subburbs of Palmerston North for the first time since 1977 (it came close in July 2003).
There were two significant snow events in the Palmerston North area in the 1970’s, the one I mentioned in ’77, and another in July 1975 (the first time I ever touched snow). In the past decade there have been regular significant snow events where snow has reached low levels to the base of the dividing mountain ranges here (the Tararuas and Ruahines) on the northern (sun-facing) side, with major falls in the northern Manawatu (multi-valleyed high country that climbs to 1,800 ft). 2003,2006, 2009, and now 2011, with the latter being the most significant.
To me this article is only confirming the feeling that I have had right from the arrival of our 2003 event. If the climate is changing for the warmer then we should see a number of weather event indicators to back that statement up. One would be an increase in warmer summers, with an ensuing decline in colder winters. What we are seeing is far from that. Some hot summers (1998-99, 2008-9) but none to challenge the record holders of 1934-5, 1974-5! An increase of snow events (see list for past decade above) to compare to previous cold periods the 1970’s and 1930’s, (funny how those cold periods also contain the hottest summers). The records also show the latter two decades to have the greatest amount of variability as well BTW.
In the past 24 hours it has snowed in cities that make up part of Auckland City. It has snowed in the mountains of the far north (of Auckland), an area known throughout New Zealand as, “the Winterless North!” These events are ‘extremely significant,!’ For many northern New Zealanders this August 2011 event, which isn’t over yet, could live long in the memory. Unless of course this becomes common place, then the CAGW Alarmists will have an even harder time selling their wares on our streets than now.
Cheers, Coops.
NZ Herald:
Yes, folks, it’s a biggun!
In Dunedin, NZ, we have had a day and a half of very cold weather, with strong southerlies and some snow. The volume of snow here is less than a similar event two weeks prior. It paralyzes the city in the same way it does every year – this is a hilly city and many roads become almost immediately impassable as they are not gritted or ploughed. Many of those roads are marginal for traction in a normal vehicle after brief rain, let alone snow cover or ice.
The unusual nature of this event is in how far north the snow has extended, including to Auckland.
While there is nothing strictly unusual about this event in the South, it is being described as a “1-in-50-year” occurrence. I’ve been here 14 years now and I’ve experienced 6 or 7 similar. I don’t find that characterisation particularly useful.
Snowed in Downtown for the first time in 80 years
Meanwhile, over on the west coast in the Aorere Valley, we have some snow on the mountains along the Heaphy Track, but that has been there for a few weeks now, not much, but sufficient for it to stay. And 5am in the milking shed was not a place to be without thermals on under the woollens and overalls.
The hills around Takaka have a topping, even Takaka Mountain up near Canaan Downs got a bit of dusting.
Other than a bitterly cold wind coming up the valley from the south, it has been sunshine and blue skies on this side of the island. I even lit the fire tonight, first time for about a month.
A bit like The Met in the UK stating “bbbq summers” and ” snow a thing of the past” eh?
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/onceinalifetime-snow-cripples-new-zealand-in-rare-polar-blast-20110815-1itiz.html
Further to my post at 7.46 p.m. a strong burst of snow moved up the west coast Lower North Island, this afternoon New Zealand time, that brought snow to Otaki, Levin and Palmerston North and other places close to the Tararua Ranges before continuing northwards. The snow settled on the ground around Levin and Ohau, but despite heavy, continuous flurries not seen in ol’ Palmy Town since 1939, nothing settled there before dark. This was a once in 70 year event here. Two snow days in a row. Not unprecedented, but exceedingly rare.
Here in Christchurch, the weather has been as forecast. 2-3 inches of snow in the small hours of this morning (Monday), some slight melting followed by bands of hail/sleet/snow during the day. Snowing “properly” as I speak (Monday 8 pm). More expected, some heavy, over the next 18 hours or so, then a couple of days of occasional sleet. The snow is ugly, a mixture of snow, ice, hail and slush, and heavy. At least it is not sticking to trees because of the high wind. I am taking advantage of each gap in the weather to clear what I can. It’s good to have a well-insulated, double-glazed house with log burner. Temperatures are not low for here, but wind chill is high in the open.
Full marks to the weather boffins, who forecasted this one correctly. With a ridge of high pressure extending from New Guinea to the Antarctic to the west of NZ, and a trough (several lows combined into one trench) to the east, the wind is set to be from due south for many days. I found the computer-modelled 3-hourly rain forecast particularly useful:
http://www.metservice.com/national/maps-rain-radar/rain-radar-forecasts/rain-forecast-3-day
You can see the bands of snow/sleet/hail hitting the country – I recommend.
That should have been Snowed in Downtown AUCKLAND for the first time in 80 years.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10745187
With all due respect to those in the South Island, this cold snap is a genuine once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Snow might be common every five or six years in Dunedin but up here in the north of the North Island any sighting is genuinely newsworthy, especially given the 72 years since it last happened.
According to the New Zealand Herald of July 28, 1939, “For the first time since meteorological records have been kept in Auckland, snow lay on the heights around the city yesterday morning and there was even a sprinkling on some of the lower levels. Constables report a light fall in the city itself and an early hour . . .”
From the Herald of August 1, 1939, “Without parallel in the memory of the oldest settlers or even in the mythology of their Maori predecessors, a fairly heavy fall of snow was experienced at Cape Maria van Dieman yesterday afternoon. The most northerly point in New Zealand, the cape usually enjoys a subtropical winter climate, but for several hours yesterday a few people were presented with a unique spectacle. . . . at 1.30pm one of the keepers at the lighthouse, which stands about a quarter of a mile offshore, was amazed to see snow falling on a ridge of a hill on the mainland about a mile distant. . . . The fall lasted for about half an hour . . .”
p170, Good Morning New Zealand (MOA Publications, 1990, ed Gil Dymock)
Should have read that a bit more carefully before sending; last line of second para should read “. . . city itself at an early hour . . .”
My excuse is that I’m freezing my ‘nads off up here in the winterless north . . .